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Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:33 pm
by champaignchris
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Ding Dong Johnson wrote:

I need this explained to me.


The Brewers just announced a policy where to purchase tickets for Brewers-Cubs series, the purchaser needs a valid Wisconsin address. It’s an effort to keep Cubs fans away from games.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:34 pm
by champaignchris
Quoted when I meant to edit.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:42 pm
by Banedon
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Ding Dong Johnson wrote:

I need this explained to me.


Brewers announced a ticket presale for Wisconsin residents only.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:16 pm
by Bryant's Disco Ball
Sorry for bumping without an update.

If the Brewers have the best offer out to Yu, doesn't that mean our offer is one in which the Cubs don't at all plan to get him but wanted to make sure they did their due diligence? I can't imagine the Brewers offer is THAT high, and if we are even lower, I can't see the Cubs raising their offer by a single year or tens of millions just to get it done.

Although maybe these thoughts are stupid of me, too.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:34 pm
by David
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Sorry for bumping without an update.

If the Brewers have the best offer out to Yu, doesn't that mean our offer is one in which the Cubs don't at all plan to get him but wanted to make sure they did their due diligence? I can't imagine the Brewers offer is THAT high, and if we are even lower, I can't see the Cubs raising their offer by a single year or tens of millions just to get it done.

Although maybe these thoughts are stupid of me, too.


the brewers insider guy did say something to the effect of the brewers having upped their offer to match (or perhaps marginally exceed) ours

and no, it doesn't mean that.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:36 pm
by Bertz
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Sorry for bumping without an update.

If the Brewers have the best offer out to Yu, doesn't that mean our offer is one in which the Cubs don't at all plan to get him but wanted to make sure they did their due diligence? I can't imagine the Brewers offer is THAT high, and if we are even lower, I can't see the Cubs raising their offer by a single year or tens of millions just to get it done.

Although maybe these thoughts are stupid of me, too.


'Best' is not always cut and dry. With Heyward for instance, we (reportedly) offered the 3rd most dollars, but the Cards didn't include any opt-outs and the Nationals' offer included a crazy amount of deferred money.

The Brewers offer may similarly be the highest without actually the best, like say we're offering 5/125 and the Brewers are offering 6/130. There's also the chance that their offer is better, but only nominally so, for example if we're offering 5/125 while they're offering 5/130. That negligible difference probably isn't enough to outweigh the soft factors where we'd come out ahead.

The likeliest version is simply that this report is pure bunk, as many (most?) are.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:41 pm
by Bryant's Disco Ball
Great points by David and Bertz.

I was right, though, as I did say my thoughts might be stupid.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:44 pm
by David
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Great points by David and Bertz.

I was right, though, as I did say my thoughts might be stupid.


why would you think, with the amount of money the cubs have to spend and the one obvious area for improvement, that they would merely be faking interest in the best available solution to fill that spot?

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:58 pm
by Bryant's Disco Ball
David wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Great points by David and Bertz.

I was right, though, as I did say my thoughts might be stupid.


why would you think, with the amount of money the cubs have to spend and the one obvious area for improvement, that they would merely be faking interest in the best available solution to fill that spot?


Not faking. Just not nearly interested enough to give Yu market value. I think they got more involved when it looked like they could get him a lot cheaper than what the market suggested, but it's going to be on their terms. If they really wanted him that bad, they would have him by now and wouldn't competing against the Twins and Brewers for him.

I've thought all along we are still getting Cobb when somebody else finally gives Yu a contract more in line with expectations.

ETA: Plus, they are signing Bryce Harper next year and I still think they are going to be somewhat responsible with the other contracts they give out during this time.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:05 pm
by David
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
David wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Great points by David and Bertz.

I was right, though, as I did say my thoughts might be stupid.


why would you think, with the amount of money the cubs have to spend and the one obvious area for improvement, that they would merely be faking interest in the best available solution to fill that spot?


Not faking. Just not nearly interested enough to give Yu market value. I think they got more involved when it looked like they could get him a lot cheaper than what the market suggested, but it's going to be on their terms. If they really wanted him that bad, they would have him by now and wouldn't competing against the Twins and Brewers for him.

I've thought all along we are still getting Cobb when somebody else finally gives Yu a contract more in line with expectations.

ETA: Plus, they are signing Bryce Harper next year and I still think they are going to be somewhat responsible with the other contracts they give out during this time.


they just know they have leverage if their only real competition are those teams right now and are using it

the only "somewhat responsible" that i'd expect guns blazing theo epstein to be is being cognizant of the tax implications...i don't see any reason they wouldn't (essentially) max out what they can spend with regard to the tax

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:07 pm
by Bobson Dugnutt
not sure if this was already posted.


Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:18 pm
by Bryant's Disco Ball
David wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
David wrote:
why would you think, with the amount of money the cubs have to spend and the one obvious area for improvement, that they would merely be faking interest in the best available solution to fill that spot?


Not faking. Just not nearly interested enough to give Yu market value. I think they got more involved when it looked like they could get him a lot cheaper than what the market suggested, but it's going to be on their terms. If they really wanted him that bad, they would have him by now and wouldn't competing against the Twins and Brewers for him.

I've thought all along we are still getting Cobb when somebody else finally gives Yu a contract more in line with expectations.

ETA: Plus, they are signing Bryce Harper next year and I still think they are going to be somewhat responsible with the other contracts they give out during this time.


they just know they have leverage if their only real competition are those teams right now and are using it

the only "somewhat responsible" that i'd expect guns blazing theo epstein to be is being cognizant of the tax implications...i don't see any reason they wouldn't (essentially) max out what they can spend with regard to the tax


I like it.

Let's get it done.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:00 pm
by Cubswin11
Bobson Dugnutt wrote:not sure if this was already posted.


Get your drunk ass out of the weeds Theo and make him an offer to get this horsefeathering done

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:19 pm
by Cubswin11
Levine just said on The Score he’s heard and doesn’t think any SP had a deal for more than $22 million AAV and that if 5/125 was out there for Darvish he’d jump at it and he doesn’t think that (or anything around that high) has been offered yet. FWIW


If that’s true, Jesus horsefeathering Christ get to that number and get it horsefeathering done

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thre

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:43 pm
by cubsclapp
Cubswin11 wrote:Levine just said on The Score he’s heard and doesn’t think any SP had a deal for more than $22 million AAV and that if 5/125 was out there for Darvish he’d jump at it and he doesn’t think that (or anything around that high) has been offered yet. FWIW


If that’s true, Jesus horsefeathering Christ get to that number and get it horsefeathering done


But why do that if you don’t have to? They’d still like some wiggle room for in-season moves as well.

I’m sure the Cubs will up their offer a little bit (perhaps quite a bit) if they feel the need to here. Right now it sure appears they’re in a position of power.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:47 pm
by cubsclapp
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
David wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Great points by David and Bertz.

I was right, though, as I did say my thoughts might be stupid.


why would you think, with the amount of money the cubs have to spend and the one obvious area for improvement, that they would merely be faking interest in the best available solution to fill that spot?


Not faking. Just not nearly interested enough to give Yu market value. I think they got more involved when it looked like they could get him a lot cheaper than what the market suggested, but it's going to be on their terms. If they really wanted him that bad, they would have him by now and wouldn't competing against the Twins and Brewers for him.

I've thought all along we are still getting Cobb when somebody else finally gives Yu a contract more in line with expectations.

ETA: Plus, they are signing Bryce Harper next year and I still think they are going to be somewhat responsible with the other contracts they give out during this time.


How do we know they’re not that interested? It’s that they don’t have to offer market value right now. The Brewers and Twins probably have to offer him a decent amount more than the Cubs or Dodgers would.

And if all things are nearly equal contract wise and he’d rather go to Milwaukee or Minnesota, well, then he’s just a weirdo. But I’d be surprised if the Cubs weren’t willing to get around the $25 million AAV range if that’s what it came down to in the end.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thre

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:47 pm
by Cubswin11
cubsclapp wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Levine just said on The Score he’s heard and doesn’t think any SP had a deal for more than $22 million AAV and that if 5/125 was out there for Darvish he’d jump at it and he doesn’t think that (or anything around that high) has been offered yet. FWIW


If that’s true, Jesus horsefeathering Christ get to that number and get it horsefeathering done


But why do that if you don’t have to? They’d still like some wiggle room for in-season moves as well.

I’m sure the Cubs will up their offer a little bit (perhaps quite a bit) if they feel the need to here. Right now it sure appears they’re in a position of power.

I agree, I’m just being impatient and frustrated. Theo knows he likely is in a hammer spot and it’s smart not to budge for now. However, 5/125 or whatever around there (5/115, 6/130, etc) just doesn’t seem prohibitive to me and should be a relative no brainer to get to, to just wrap this up. A $25 aav deal would still leave us with ~$10 mil to add a contract mid-season and still stay under the LT, I think, it was reported a while back the FO felt we had about $35 million left to add to if needed/wanted and still be under.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thre

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:58 pm
by cubsclapp
Cubswin11 wrote:
cubsclapp wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Levine just said on The Score he’s heard and doesn’t think any SP had a deal for more than $22 million AAV and that if 5/125 was out there for Darvish he’d jump at it and he doesn’t think that (or anything around that high) has been offered yet. FWIW


If that’s true, Jesus horsefeathering Christ get to that number and get it horsefeathering done


But why do that if you don’t have to? They’d still like some wiggle room for in-season moves as well.

I’m sure the Cubs will up their offer a little bit (perhaps quite a bit) if they feel the need to here. Right now it sure appears they’re in a position of power.

I agree, I’m just being impatient and frustrated. Theo knows he likely is in a hammer spot and it’s smart not to budge for now. However, 5/125 or whatever around there (5/115, 6/130, etc) just doesn’t seem prohibitive to me and should be a relative no brainer to get to, to just wrap this up. A $25 aav deal would still leave us with ~$10 mil in space to add a contract mid-season, I think.


Without looking it all up, I thought they were closer to like $31 million left for luxury tax purposes and $25 AAV is probably as high as they’d want to go. Even with Darvish, odds are they need something at the deadline and you’d like more than a handful of million to work with.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thre

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:02 pm
by Cubswin11
cubsclapp wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
cubsclapp wrote:
But why do that if you don’t have to? They’d still like some wiggle room for in-season moves as well.

I’m sure the Cubs will up their offer a little bit (perhaps quite a bit) if they feel the need to here. Right now it sure appears they’re in a position of power.

I agree, I’m just being impatient and frustrated. Theo knows he likely is in a hammer spot and it’s smart not to budge for now. However, 5/125 or whatever around there (5/115, 6/130, etc) just doesn’t seem prohibitive to me and should be a relative no brainer to get to, to just wrap this up. A $25 aav deal would still leave us with ~$10 mil in space to add a contract mid-season, I think.


Without looking it all up, I thought they were closer to like $31 million left for luxury tax purposes and $25 AAV is probably as high as they’d want to go. Even with Darvish, odds are they need something at the deadline and you’d like more than a handful of million to work with.

$5-8 million then is more than enough space to work with at the deadline, imo. Lock in Darvish now and worry about the deadline at the deadline.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thre

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:37 pm
by Dfan25
cubsclapp wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Levine just said on The Score he’s heard and doesn’t think any SP had a deal for more than $22 million AAV and that if 5/125 was out there for Darvish he’d jump at it and he doesn’t think that (or anything around that high) has been offered yet. FWIW


If that’s true, Jesus horsefeathering Christ get to that number and get it horsefeathering done


But why do that if you don’t have to? They’d still like some wiggle room for in-season moves as well.

I’m sure the Cubs will up their offer a little bit (perhaps quite a bit) if they feel the need to here. Right now it sure appears they’re in a position of power.

If it were me I would offer 5/125 and try to get this done. I know is unlikely but the Dodgers are still trying to move money and you never know they may find someone stupid enough to help them . For a pitcher that was expected to get 6 / 150 or more 5/ 125 is still a good deal for the Cubs. I get wanting to take advantage of the leverage they seem to have but is risky IMO. They would still have like 8 - 10 for moves during season and they can save some by cutting Grimm.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:53 pm
by CyHawk_Cub

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:53 pm
by Guancous
EDIT: CyHawk_Cub beat me to it by seconds.

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:57 pm
by UMFan83

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:58 pm
by Guancous
Image

Re: It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:12 pm
by shnsajax
6/126 isn’t too bad.