It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

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David
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby David » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:16 am

Lowblow wrote:Unless, you foresee a future three to five years from now when you will have to pay Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Quintana, et al a lot more money than you will be paying them in the nearer term.


you backload them too. if you can backload, all else equal, you should.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby David » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:19 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
David wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Highly doubt that and if it is go to 8/160 to lessen the LT hit and front load it. Who cares if we’re paying him $10 mil a year 5+ years from now


unless there's some mlb rule/tax implication i'm overlooking (which i don't think bc it's all based on AAV anyway), there's no good reason to frontload when you can backload. money now >>>>>> money later
you would front load as an incentive to a player to take a lower over AAV to protect you from the tax hit. He gets more money sooner, which has more value, while you avoid tax hit.


yeah i got what he was saying about 10 seconds after i made that post
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:19 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
David wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Highly doubt that and if it is go to 8/160 to lessen the LT hit and front load it. Who cares if we’re paying him $10 mil a year 5+ years from now


unless there's some mlb rule/tax implication i'm overlooking (which i don't think bc it's all based on AAV anyway), there's no good reason to frontload when you can backload. money now >>>>>> money later
you would front load as an incentive to a player to take a lower over AAV to protect you from the tax hit. He gets more money sooner, which has more value, while you avoid tax hit.

Yeah, that’s what I was getting at. If they are fine going to 6/150+ outside of the LT ramifications just go to 8/160. He gets his 25-30 a year for the first few years, but for that we get to tack 1-3 years on to lower the AAV for LT purposes. Hell, even give him an opt out after 3-4 years. Also paying more now in real cash helps a bit in future cash outlays with arbitration raises/Bryce (though obviously I get the time value aspect of that by paying more now than later but it’s a trade off).
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:21 am

David wrote:
Lowblow wrote:Unless, you foresee a future three to five years from now when you will have to pay Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Quintana, et al a lot more money than you will be paying them in the nearer term.


you backload them too. if you can backload, all else equal, you should.

All else equal is kind of the big deal. If you could actually get players to adjust their total contract by frontloading, why would you ever backload? Even if you are using somewhat conservative time value returns, a bunch of half million, million AAV increments could end up adding up when it comes to trying to time your tax overages/under.

Eta, actually there could be a lot of reasons to backload still, but not from a lux tax calc perspective.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby David » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:29 am

someone smarter than me figure out if charles is at least right about this

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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:33 am

David wrote:someone smarter than me figure out if charles is at least right about this


I’m guessing it’s this....

s
$24m / 8 Years (2016 - 2023)
signed by Los Angeles Dodgers on 1/7/2016 (Free Agent)
2016: $3M, 2017: $3M, 2018: $3M, 2019: $3M, 2020: $3M, 2021: $3M, 2022: $3M, 2023: $3M
Incentives: $250,000 for every 10 IP after (and including) 90 IP up to 200 IP; $1,000,000 for his 15th, 20th, 25th, 30th and 32nd starts


He made 25 starts and pitched 134 innings last year. I'm only getting to $4.25 in incentives hit from last year and $7.25 in 2016. So overall those equal about $12 million but it should only be a ~$4 million cap hit from 2017 going in to the year + his base salary.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:57 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
David wrote:
unless there's some mlb rule/tax implication i'm overlooking (which i don't think bc it's all based on AAV anyway), there's no good reason to frontload when you can backload. money now >>>>>> money later
you would front load as an incentive to a player to take a lower over AAV to protect you from the tax hit. He gets more money sooner, which has more value, while you avoid tax hit.

Yeah, that’s what I was getting at. If they are fine going to 6/150+ outside of the LT ramifications just go to 8/160. He gets his 25-30 a year for the first few years, but for that we get to tack 1-3 years on to lower the AAV for LT purposes. Hell, even give him an opt out after 3-4 years. Also paying more now in real cash helps a bit in future cash outlays with arbitration raises/Bryce (though obviously I get the time value aspect of that by paying more now than later but it’s a trade off).

That seems like a structure bound to test the limits of MLB and the lux tax rules.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:00 am

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:you would front load as an incentive to a player to take a lower over AAV to protect you from the tax hit. He gets more money sooner, which has more value, while you avoid tax hit.

Yeah, that’s what I was getting at. If they are fine going to 6/150+ outside of the LT ramifications just go to 8/160. He gets his 25-30 a year for the first few years, but for that we get to tack 1-3 years on to lower the AAV for LT purposes. Hell, even give him an opt out after 3-4 years. Also paying more now in real cash helps a bit in future cash outlays with arbitration raises/Bryce (though obviously I get the time value aspect of that by paying more now than later but it’s a trade off).

That seems like a structure bound to test the limits of MLB and the lux tax rules.

Probably but good, be the first to do it and likely get away with it before changes like the Dodgers and the 10-day DL
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bull » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:13 am

At this point, I'm going to need some evidence that Yu Darvish is actually a person. Sounds made up to me. and if he were a real person who actually played baseball, wouldn't he have signed by now? Checkmate fake baseball news.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby davell » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:55 am

David wrote:someone smarter than me figure out if charles is at least right about this



I've got them around 180ish after everything, not including Maeda's incentives, or in season moves. I guess its possible they can be paying Kemp MORE than just the 20 AAV his contract calls for though, since they're paying the Braves and Padres 8 mill combined for him too. No idea if that counts on top of his AAV hit or not.

They'll pay Maeda some incentives, assuming he stays healthy, but he needs to start 32 games and pitch 200 innings, to make 10 mill in incentives.

If he starts 25 games and pitches 160 innings, his incentives are just 5.50 mill. And if I chose 24 starts, it'd drop to 4 mill.

At any rate, they need to realistically move Grandal and Ryu for minimum salary guys, to give themselves 20 mill to throw at Yu and have anything left to spend at mid season.

Their other option is to package prospects with Kemp, to get someone to take his contract. To me, that sounds more realistic for them.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:11 am

I just don't feel like Yu wants to be a Cub

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The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:14 am

Yu mama dont wanna be a Cub
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:29 am

it's been almost a week since that brewer guy said darvish is signing with the cubs.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:42 am

Theres a lesson here: never trust anyone from Wisconsin
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby David » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:02 am

Bobson Dugnutt wrote:it's been almost a week since that brewer guy said darvish is signing with the cubs.


my guess is the brewers got the impression that that's what's going to happen

whatever info that guy is getting is coming from the brewers
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:05 am

David wrote:
Bobson Dugnutt wrote:it's been almost a week since that brewer guy said darvish is signing with the cubs.


my guess is the brewers got the impression that that's what's going to happen

whatever info that guy is getting is coming from the brewers


yeah, I’m not doubting that guy as a source by any means because it seems he’s called enough things that he deserves the benefit of the doubt. but i don’t think it was quite as much of a done deal as his sources believed.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby CubinNY » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:13 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:I just don't feel like Yu wants to be a Cub

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I don’t get the feeling he wants to be a pitcher for any team for what they are offering.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Agony and Ivy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:20 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:I just don't feel like Yu wants to be a Cub

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I think the speculating on things like this is funny. One thing I've noticed is he's stopped messing with reports on twitter which I enjoyed thoroughly
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Butterscup » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:47 am

he'll be a cub very soon
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:57 am

Butterscup wrote:he'll be a cub very soon

You’ve always been our slump buster, Butters
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:25 pm

I'm calling it. Yu signs within the next 6 hours.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bull » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:39 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Butterscup wrote:he'll be a cub very soon

You’ve always been our slump buster, Butters

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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:17 pm

Duke Silver wrote:I'm calling it. Yu signs within the next 6 hours.


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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby CubinNY » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:57 pm

Duke Silver wrote:I'm calling it. Yu signs within the next 6 hours.

Don't write an article about it, please.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Hunter » Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:32 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:I'm calling it. Yu signs within the next 6 hours.

Don't write an article about it, please.


Write an article about why we shouldn't sign Darvish.
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