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Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:38 pm
by Transmogrified Tiger
I tried finding a way to make a dead offseason/nihilist arby's joke but it's friday and my brain is tired.

Anyway, Wilson signed for 4.25 million



That's 750k under MLBTR's estimate.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:56 pm
by davell
Actually, his was 4.3, they only missed him by 50k.

I really hope Dierkes is right on the file and trial stuff. Since Theo hasn't ever taken a guy to a hearing before, it'd mean we get all these guys signed today and we have a completely clear idea of exactly how much money we've got to throw at Darvish or whoever.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:23 pm
by Cubswin11
davell wrote:Actually, his was 4.3, they only missed him by 50k.


Theo docked him 50k for the 50,000 walks he had after we traded for him last year.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:29 pm
by Transmogrified Tiger
davell wrote:Actually, his was 4.3, they only missed him by 50k.


Whoops, I thought I had used the MLBTR estimates on my spreadsheet, must've rounded everything up to be conservative.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:44 pm
by Brian
I forgot Justin Wilson existed.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:59 pm
by davell
Hendricks gets 4.175, per Nightengale. Was projected at 4.9 by MLBTR.

Evidently, the deadline is 1PM EST, so just an hour left.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:42 pm
by davell


50k under MLBTR

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:57 pm
by Bertz
It's crazy how good the MLBTR guy's model is for projecting these salaries. I know some of it is that teams and agents are using them as a benchmark to negotiate from, but that actually makes it even more impressive.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:02 pm
by Cubswin11
Bertz wrote:It's crazy how good the MLBTR guy's model is for projecting these salaries. I know some of it is that teams and agents are using them as a benchmark to negotiate from, but that actually makes it even more impressive.

I really appreciate the time it must take them to do it and them putting it out there as a reference point but I don't think it's that hard to hit estimates within a reasonable margin of error. If they have a guy(s) taking the time to do it with the amount of information out there to compare similar players/past amounts I don't think it's crazy tough to find the 2-5 most similar comps for players and add a % increase for inflation/rising salary costs and hit in the ballpark of the final salary. I don't think it takes some super complex model.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:06 pm
by KrisBryantisaBeast
So who's left to sign? Russell Grimm and Bryant right?

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:08 pm
by David
KrisBryantisaBeast wrote:So who's left to sign? Russell Grimm and Bryant right?


Grimm is going to arbitration apparently.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:12 pm
by KrisBryantisaBeast
David wrote:
KrisBryantisaBeast wrote:So who's left to sign? Russell Grimm and Bryant right?


Grimm is going to arbitration apparently.


Should have just non tendered him instead.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:13 pm
by Bertz
Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:It's crazy how good the MLBTR guy's model is for projecting these salaries. I know some of it is that teams and agents are using them as a benchmark to negotiate from, but that actually makes it even more impressive.

I really appreciate the time it must take them to do it and them putting it out there as a reference point but I don't think it's that hard to hit estimates within a reasonable margin of error. If they have a guy(s) taking the time to do it with the amount of information out there to compare similar players/past amounts I don't think it's crazy tough to find the 2-5 most similar comps for players and add a % increase for inflation/rising salary costs and hit in the ballpark of the final salary. I don't think it takes some super complex model.


What makes it so impressive to me is how small that margin of error seems to be. I think building a decent model wouldn't be that tough, but this one goes above and beyond IMO. And while the sample is huge, when you're slicing and dicing by so many factors (position, service time, production) you end up with some pretty small cohorts for some guys.

Basically as someone who has generally failed when trying to build out these types of models, I've got a lot of respect.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:20 pm
by Cubswin11
Bertz wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:It's crazy how good the MLBTR guy's model is for projecting these salaries. I know some of it is that teams and agents are using them as a benchmark to negotiate from, but that actually makes it even more impressive.

I really appreciate the time it must take them to do it and them putting it out there as a reference point but I don't think it's that hard to hit estimates within a reasonable margin of error. If they have a guy(s) taking the time to do it with the amount of information out there to compare similar players/past amounts I don't think it's crazy tough to find the 2-5 most similar comps for players and add a % increase for inflation/rising salary costs and hit in the ballpark of the final salary. I don't think it takes some super complex model.


What makes it so impressive to me is how small that margin of error seems to be. I think building a decent model wouldn't be that tough, but this one goes above and beyond IMO. And while the sample is huge, when you're slicing and dicing by so many factors (position, service time, production) you end up with some pretty small cohorts for some guys.

Basically as someone who has generally failed when trying to build out these types of models, I've got a lot of respect.

Oh I agree and I certainly appreciate the amount of time it must take to do it. Just saying I don't think it would be that hard to do it if you take the crazy amount of time to do it that it would require.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:24 pm
by Cubswin11
KrisBryantisaBeast wrote:
David wrote:
KrisBryantisaBeast wrote:So who's left to sign? Russell Grimm and Bryant right?


Grimm is going to arbitration apparently.


Should have just non tendered him instead.

I wonder if we were fine going to the top end of what he'd get/request and we just tried to come in a decent amount lower since he sucked ass last year and feel a compelling argument can be made in our favor in arbitration if it goes there but if we "lose" it's not a crazy number to go to.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:46 pm
by Transmogrified Tiger
Cubswin11 wrote:
KrisBryantisaBeast wrote:
David wrote:
Grimm is going to arbitration apparently.


Should have just non tendered him instead.

I wonder if we were fine going to the top end of what he'd get/request and we just tried to come in a decent amount lower since he sucked ass last year and feel a compelling argument can be made in our favor in arbitration if it goes there but if we "lose" it's not a crazy number to go to.


Grimm is also the most fungible player on the roster, so if he wins and if that dollar amount happened to be prohibitive(I doubt the max 1 million delta is gonna do it anyway), then you can cut him for an NRI without much lost.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:09 pm
by Cubswin11

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:11 pm
by KrisBryantisaBeast
Bryant is getting 10.85 million and Russell is getting 3.2
million.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:22 pm
by shnsajax
KrisBryantisaBeast wrote:Bryant is getting 10.85 million and Russell is getting 3.2
million.


How much is Addy's ex-wife getting?

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:24 pm
by Bobson Dugnutt
alright, so where do we stand in relation to the luxury tax?

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:26 pm
by Ding Dong Johnson
shnsajax wrote:
KrisBryantisaBeast wrote:Bryant is getting 10.85 million and Russell is getting 3.2
million.


How much is Addy's ex-wife getting?

Image

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:39 pm
by CaliforniaRaisin
KrisBryantisaBeast wrote:Bryant is getting 10.85 million and Russell is getting 3.2
million.


Bryant's $10.85 million is a record for first-year arbitration.

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:40 pm
by Cubswin11
So where are we at LT wise?

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:48 pm
by Bertz
Image

This is where I've got our payroll at right now. Obviously arbitration is hard to predict this far out so this isn't really perfect beyond 2018. For everyone who's already gone through arb I just gave them a 50% raise every year (the yellow/gold cells) and for the guys who haven't gone through it but will in 19/20 I just ballparked some numbers based on looking around at what guys are getting today (the dark orange cells).

Edit: I initially fat fingered Seal Boy

Re: Cubs arbitration eligibles

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:23 pm
by davell
Great breakdown. I thought insurance was 15 mill last year? Maybe I'm off on that though. I thought the rest of the 40 man comes in at 200k apiece, not 100% sure on that either. But, if I'm correct, it'd shave another 2.5 off the 35.9 we can spend. Of course, we can make most of it by cutting Grimm.

Still, assuming we'll save 7-10 mill for in season moves, it makes a Darvish signing pretty hard to fathom. Same with Jake.