Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 67036
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 819
x 1637

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby Derwood » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:55 pm

Do the Padres think Hosmer is a marketable star? Is he going to sell tickets?
0 x

User avatar
TBS Playoffs Insider
Turdologist
Posts: 31626
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2003 7:57 am
x 1926
x 4605
Contact:

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:02 pm

Derwood wrote:Do the Padres think Hosmer is a marketable star? Is he going to sell tickets?


I think he's much higher on the marketable scale than he is on "actually valuable" scale.
0 x

davell
Hall of Fame
Posts: 21108
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:55 pm
x 1635
x 2093

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby davell » Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:42 pm

jehr wrote:Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.


I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.
0 x
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

davell
Hall of Fame
Posts: 21108
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:55 pm
x 1635
x 2093

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby davell » Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:48 pm

toonsterwu wrote:I guess this is their version of Gil Meche (when he signed with the Royals) or Jayson Werth (with the Nationals). It's a "we're close" move at a decent enough price. They are close ... their assets coming up could form a strong foundational core in the next year or two, and the team in of itself seems ... interesting ... (on paper) for 2018. A potentially strong pen, some rotation pieces, and a maybe the foundations of a decent lineup.

That said, they are in the NL West, which looks to have several "ascending" teams (to go along with the Padres, the Rockies system is strong, and the Diamondbacks look headed in the right direction, even if they regress a bit) to go with the Dodgers, plus the last gasp from the Giants.

I don't particularly like the move, but I understand it.


They gave a guy who literally sucks out loud every other year a huge contract. This being a team that doesn't have money to even do this. This is a move they should have done next year or even the year after that. They're a last place team in the West this year. Maybe even next year, depending on the Giants.....
0 x
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

jehr
Role Player
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:35 pm
x 138
x 40

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby jehr » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:06 pm

davell wrote:
jehr wrote:Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.


I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.
0 x

User avatar
Hairyducked Idiot
Kyle in disguise
Posts: 33082
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 2:42 pm
Location: Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man
x 1291
x 1186

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:15 pm

jehr wrote:Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.


They immediately won the division the next two years. How was it the wrong year?
3 x

User avatar
Hairyducked Idiot
Kyle in disguise
Posts: 33082
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 2:42 pm
Location: Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man
x 1291
x 1186

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:17 pm

jehr wrote:
davell wrote:
jehr wrote:Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.


I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.


According to Fangraphs, we got 8.9 fWAR from his last 3.5 years before before trading him to the Yankees.

The Soriano contract was fine, both at the time and how it turned out.
3 x

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60116
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 7198
x 4359

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby David » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:18 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
jehr wrote:Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.


They immediately won the division the next two years. How was it the wrong year?


wrong year in the sense that soriano was the best free agent out there.

to this day i'm disgusted with not signing carlos beltran
0 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60116
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 7198
x 4359

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby David » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:21 pm

jehr wrote:
davell wrote:
jehr wrote:Padres fans now know how I felt when we signed Soriano... Ownership picking the wrong year and the wrong guy to open the pocketbook for.


I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.


what? no
0 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60116
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 7198
x 4359

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby David » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:24 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
jehr wrote:
davell wrote:
I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.


According to Fangraphs, we got 8.9 fWAR from his last 3.5 years before before trading him to the Yankees.

The Soriano contract was fine, both at the time and how it turned out.


it turned out better than people generally seem to think, but it was still negative in value overall

at the time it happened, i definitely had a bittersweet feeling about it. i was excited that we signed the best player out there to a big contract but i was also pretty annoyed that we didn't decide to throw all that money around when there was a better free agent class. soriano was the type of player i begrudgingly liked despite an approach at the plate that was everything i learned to dislike in a baseball player. he was so talented that he was still productive despite his allergy to working counts and walking (i think he did have a year or two where he wasn't so bad in this regard). and we got two division titles out of it.
0 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 20347
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 3843
x 3383

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:10 pm

Signing some combination of Lomo/Lind/Carter/Bautista for a 1B platoon probably gets you as much, if not more, in season value for 1/10 the overall price and gives you much more flexibility. This is dumb anyway you look at it. Also saw this guy on twitter last night and thought these were good points..






2 x
Screw Pitchers

jehr
Role Player
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:35 pm
x 138
x 40

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby jehr » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:38 pm

David wrote:
jehr wrote:
davell wrote:
I'm not defending Hendry, but there's a humongous difference between those 2 moves. At least the Cubs signed a bunch that off season. Bought themselves into being the favorites. Plus, Sori was a hell of a lot better player than Hosmer.

I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.


what? no
actually, yes. 1.7 over his last 4 with us... With regular old WAR. If you want to argue that this is a good case study of fWAR over WAR, okay, I'll give you that, but I'd still say the contract was bad there at the end
Last edited by jehr on Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 x

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 44375
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 5:02 pm
Location: Naperville, IL
x 69
x 1942
Contact:

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby Tim » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:42 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Signing some combination of Lomo/Lind/Carter/Bautista for a 1B platoon probably gets you as much, if not more, in season value for 1/10 the overall price and gives you much more flexibility. This is dumb anyway you look at it. Also saw this guy on twitter last night and thought these were good points..







Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)
7 x
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 20347
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 3843
x 3383

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:46 pm

Tim wrote:Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)

Damn, I forgot that was Duke's name. Good summation Duke.
1 x
Screw Pitchers

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60116
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 7198
x 4359

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby David » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:48 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tim wrote:Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)

Damn, I forgot that was Duke's name. Good summation Duke.


i totally just thought you were kidding/being facetious
1 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60116
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 7198
x 4359

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby David » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:52 pm

jehr wrote:
David wrote:
jehr wrote:I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.


what? no
actually, yes. 1.7 over his last 4 with us... With regular old WAR. If you want to argue that this is a good case study of fWAR over WAR, okay, I'll give you that, but I'd still say the contract was bad there at the end


there's no such thing as regular old WAR. I'm guessing you mean baseball reference WAR, or bWAR or rWAR. and yeah, it kinda sucks.

on a strict value basis, the contract was always bad. just not nearly as bad as people treat it as. it was far from some horrible albatross. just a good player who was paid a bit more than his market value should've dictated.
0 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

ScrubMD
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5437
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2009 5:45 pm
x 56
x 870

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby ScrubMD » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:47 pm

In defense of the Padres, Hosmer does seem like the kind of guy who plays for the Padres.
1 x

User avatar
Duke Silver
Superstar
Posts: 10572
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2014 6:45 am
x 11276
x 7709

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:51 pm

Tim wrote:Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)


Something seems off with him. Like he's possessed by an evil spirit. Best keep him away from here.
2 x

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 1280
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 1124
x 316

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby Regular Show » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:58 pm

I don't think it's a terrible deal if they can actually get him to start lifting the ball more and stop hitting so many damn groundballs. I don't know if you want to tinker with his swing, but it feels like he should be way better. He also seems like a good defensive 1B, but the defensive metrics disagree. He's also a good athlete so he should age better than most 1B. It's too long a deal and I doubt he opts-out, but I think Hosmer has some untapped potential if some hitting coach/instructor can get to it.

I think he is one of the most divisive players between what scouts think of him vs. what advanced analytics and quants think of him.
0 x

Post Count Padder
Superstar
Posts: 14662
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 8:51 pm
Location: In your dreams
x 16
x 101

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby Post Count Padder » Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:02 pm

Haahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

/breathes

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
0 x
formerly known as PriorPower
formerly known as the guy with Huston Street in his sig

:flythew:

User avatar
bcl412
Superstar
Posts: 15393
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2007 8:02 pm
Location: Boston
x 216
x 470

Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby bcl412 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:46 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
jehr wrote:I don't disagree... But few thought it was a good contract at the time, and in hindsight, I don't think anyone would have done it again (we got what, maybe 2 WAR from the last four or five years we had him?). At the time, I would have preferred opening up the pocketbook a year or two earlier and nabbing Vlad or Beltran over Soriano. All that said, I would sign Soriano again in a heartbeat over that contract they gave Hosmer.


According to Fangraphs, we got 8.9 fWAR from his last 3.5 years before before trading him to the Yankees.

The Soriano contract was fine, both at the time and how it turned out.


it turned out better than people generally seem to think, but it was still negative in value overall

at the time it happened, i definitely had a bittersweet feeling about it. i was excited that we signed the best player out there to a big contract but i was also pretty annoyed that we didn't decide to throw all that money around when there was a better free agent class. soriano was the type of player i begrudgingly liked despite an approach at the plate that was everything i learned to dislike in a baseball player. he was so talented that he was still productive despite his allergy to working counts and walking (i think he did have a year or two where he wasn't so bad in this regard). and we got two division titles out of it.


Soriano hot streaks were one of my favorite baseball things
0 x

User avatar
PackLandVA
All-Star
Posts: 1712
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2004 5:42 pm
Location: Embracing the suck...somewhere.
x 118
x 225

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby PackLandVA » Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:08 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tim wrote:Yep...that aaron guy is pretty smart. Wish he posted here! ;)

Damn, I forgot that was Duke's name. Good summation Duke.


So I guess this means Hosmer wins the NL MVP the next couple of years, right??
1 x
Sticks the landing!!!

CubinNY
Hall of Fame
Posts: 22058
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 5:52 pm
Location: Pike Road, Al
x 155
x 381

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby CubinNY » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:33 pm

Regular Show wrote:I don't think it's a terrible deal if they can actually get him to start lifting the ball more and stop hitting so many damn groundballs. I don't know if you want to tinker with his swing, but it feels like he should be way better. He also seems like a good defensive 1B, but the defensive metrics disagree. He's also a good athlete so he should age better than most 1B. It's too long a deal and I doubt he opts-out, but I think Hosmer has some untapped potential if some hitting coach/instructor can get to it.

I think he is one of the most divisive players between what scouts think of him vs. what advanced analytics and quants think of him.

Don’t ya think he would’ve done that already?
0 x

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60116
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 7198
x 4359

Re: Hosmer to the Padres - 8 Years $144M

Postby David » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:40 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Regular Show wrote:I don't think it's a terrible deal if they can actually get him to start lifting the ball more and stop hitting so many damn groundballs. I don't know if you want to tinker with his swing, but it feels like he should be way better. He also seems like a good defensive 1B, but the defensive metrics disagree. He's also a good athlete so he should age better than most 1B. It's too long a deal and I doubt he opts-out, but I think Hosmer has some untapped potential if some hitting coach/instructor can get to it.

I think he is one of the most divisive players between what scouts think of him vs. what advanced analytics and quants think of him.

Don’t ya think he would’ve done that already?

Maybe he's another yonder Alonso who just needs to realize hitting the ball in the air is a good idea. I wouldn't bet $140 million or whatever on it tho
1 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.


Return to “Transactions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests