Jake Arrieta Signs with the Phillies for 3/$75M

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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby d_money » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:24 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bobson Dugnutt wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
The amount determines the round. If it's over 50 million it's the comp round between round 1 and 2, less than that it's the comp round between rounds 2 and 3. It's the approximate difference in getting pick 33 or 73.


Aren’t they receiving the 75th pick (or around that) for Davis, who signed for over $50 million?


You're right, when I saw that in double checking I thought Davis was under 50 million. The 50 million distinction is if you're a revenue sharing recipient, so Arrieta would be comp round B regardless.

Dumb question but...where does round B fall then?
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:48 pm

d_money wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bobson Dugnutt wrote:
Aren’t they receiving the 75th pick (or around that) for Davis, who signed for over $50 million?


You're right, when I saw that in double checking I thought Davis was under 50 million. The 50 million distinction is if you're a revenue sharing recipient, so Arrieta would be comp round B regardless.

Dumb question but...where does round B fall then?


That's the round Bobson is quoting above. If I'm reading the current draft order right(clearly not a guarantee!) the Cubs should have back to back picks, #76 and #77. Those will come after their regularly scheduled 1st round(#24) and 2nd round(#63) picks. The later picks referenced might shift slightly depending on the remaining FA like Cobb(and maybe Lynn).
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Omar » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:52 pm

Wait didn't the Cubs offer Arrieta the same contract before going to Darvish? ($100 mil+?)

and now he settled for $75 mil?
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:07 pm

I like both moves for Philly and think they are on a good trajectory the next 2-4+ years and yeah if everything breaks right they could win 87 games and be a WC team but we have very different definitions of a "very competitive team," Bob..

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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:14 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I like both moves for Philly and think they are on a good trajectory the next 2-4+ years and yeah if everything breaks right they could win 87 games and be a WC team but we have very different definitions of a "very competitive team," Bob..



FWIW, ZiPS has them on par or maybe even better than the Brewers, although admittedly even with my doubts, ZiPS undersells Milwaukee.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:29 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I like both moves for Philly and think they are on a good trajectory the next 2-4+ years and yeah if everything breaks right they could win 87 games and be a WC team but we have very different definitions of a "very competitive team," Bob..



FWIW, ZiPS has them on par or maybe even better than the Brewers, although admittedly even with my doubts, ZiPS undersells Milwaukee.


my god it's the ... vaunted phillies

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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:35 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I like both moves for Philly and think they are on a good trajectory the next 2-4+ years and yeah if everything breaks right they could win 87 games and be a WC team but we have very different definitions of a "very competitive team," Bob..



FWIW, ZiPS has them on par or maybe even better than the Brewers, although admittedly even with my doubts, ZiPS undersells Milwaukee.

Seems about right. Both teams could win mid-high 80s and be in WC contention but also could end up low 70s. Both probably end up between 76 and 82 wins.

Right now I think the NL tiers are Cubs/Nats/Dodgers at the top then D’backs/Cardinals/Giants behind that tier then Brewers/Phillies/Rockies/Mets (if some of the pitchers stay healthy) then the next tier is everyone else.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby davell » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:52 pm

I'm glad we didn't keep him. But, I wish he'd have gotten much more. He was a horsefeathering bad ass for us and we don't have that World Series without him. The guy gave us some of the best Cubs memories we've got.

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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:15 am

Cubswin11 wrote:I like both moves for Philly and think they are on a good trajectory the next 2-4+ years and yeah if everything breaks right they could win 87 games and be a WC team but we have very different definitions of a "very competitive team," Bob..


You don't have to project to 92 wins to be very competitive. 85 can win divisions and above .500 means you are playing meaningful games all season long.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:21 am

Seems like Jake could end up with a big deal. Though maybe to get to 5 and 125+ he needs to hit unlikely attainable options like CY Youngs or something.



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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby davell » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:23 am

The Phillies need to go grab Cobb too now. They've got tons of money to spend and it'd set them up even better to be a player next offseason.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:44 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Good for Jake. Sad to see him go, hope he gets $75-90 mil here. Glad he didn’t go to the Nats, Brewers or Cardinals


horsefeathers, I would loved for him to go to any of them. I don't think he's going to age well at all.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Tim » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:52 am

Good luck, Jake. I wish you nothing but the best.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:52 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Good for Jake. Sad to see him go, hope he gets $75-90 mil here. Glad he didn’t go to the Nats, Brewers or Cardinals


horsefeathers, I would loved for him to go to any of them. I don't think he's going to age well at all.

I go back and forth on that. Like obviously 2015 Jake, top 5-10 pitcher in the league, isn’t showing up anymore. But he was really good in the 2nd half last year and his playoff starts. I don’t think it would be crazy if he’s a 2.5-3.5 WAR pitcher for most of this next contract.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby treebird » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:57 am

thanks for being good sometimes but I’ll help him pack
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:57 am

I'm not sure how to make this make sense in words, but arrieta was a guy who was way harder for me to watch than he should have been. Maybe it was just because his 2015 was so outrageous, but the last two years were just hard to watch even thought ultimately he was still pretty valuable.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Duke Silver » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Good for Jake. Sad to see him go, hope he gets $75-90 mil here. Glad he didn’t go to the Nats, Brewers or Cardinals


Yeah, this went about perfectly. The whole off-season did really. The Dodgers stood still. We actually stole a couple important pieces from them. We loaded up. The Cards and Brewers both made good trades. But they were also half measures after they stopped there.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby treebird » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 am

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:I'm not sure how to make this make sense in words, but arrieta was a guy who was way harder for me to watch than he should have been. Maybe it was just because his 2015 was so outrageous, but the last two years were just hard to watch even thought ultimately he was still pretty valuable.


he felt completely on the verge of being andy pratt most of the time.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby David » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:06 am

treebird wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:I'm not sure how to make this make sense in words, but arrieta was a guy who was way harder for me to watch than he should have been. Maybe it was just because his 2015 was so outrageous, but the last two years were just hard to watch even thought ultimately he was still pretty valuable.


he felt completely on the verge of being andy pratt most of the time.


his 2016-17 self reminded me of marmol when he was still good but not nearly as dominant anymore bc teams just stopped swinging
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:06 am

Duke Silver wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Good for Jake. Sad to see him go, hope he gets $75-90 mil here. Glad he didn’t go to the Nats, Brewers or Cardinals


Yeah, this went about perfectly. The whole off-season did really. The Dodgers stood still. We actually stole a couple important pieces from them. We loaded up. The Cards and Brewers both made good trades. But they were also half measures after they stopped there.

The Brewers off-season especially seemed so half-assed. Like why sign a 32 year old Cain if you aren’t going to add pitchers, especially factoring in the market tanking on SP. They should’ve added 2 of Cobb/Jake/Lynn or not signed Cain and spent that money on Darvish + Cobb or Lynn still.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Duke Silver » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:33 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Good for Jake. Sad to see him go, hope he gets $75-90 mil here. Glad he didn’t go to the Nats, Brewers or Cardinals


Yeah, this went about perfectly. The whole off-season did really. The Dodgers stood still. We actually stole a couple important pieces from them. We loaded up. The Cards and Brewers both made good trades. But they were also half measures after they stopped there.

The Brewers off-season especially seemed so half-assed. Like why sign a 32 year old Cain if you aren’t going to add pitchers, especially factoring in the market tanking on SP. They should’ve added 2 of Cobb/Jake/Lynn or not signed Cain and spent that money on Darvish + Cobb or Lynn still.


The Cain signing makes absolutely no sense now that it's come at the expense of signing someone like Arrieta or Darvish.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:37 am

Oh yeah, this guy threw two no-hitters for the Cubs. This should feel like a bigger deal than it does.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:50 am

Duke Silver wrote:The Cain signing makes absolutely no sense now that it's come at the expense of signing someone like Arrieta or Darvish.


To be fair, Darvish probably never even had the slightest interest in the Brewers.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby champaignchris » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:05 am

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:I'm not sure how to make this make sense in words, but arrieta was a guy who was way harder for me to watch than he should have been. Maybe it was just because his 2015 was so outrageous, but the last two years were just hard to watch even thought ultimately he was still pretty valuable.


He had a few of those 5 inning, 100 pitch Rich Harden-esque starts that were absolutely torture to watch.
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Re: Jake Arrieta Close to Signing with the Phillies

Postby champaignchris » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:08 am

Cubswin11 wrote:The Brewers off-season especially seemed so half-assed. Like why sign a 32 year old Cain if you aren’t going to add pitchers, especially factoring in the market tanking on SP. They should’ve added 2 of Cobb/Jake/Lynn or not signed Cain and spent that money on Darvish + Cobb or Lynn still.


I agree. Their offseason makes it seem like they want to look like they're competing more than actually compete. Some of the other "middle tier" teams had far better off seasons. The Blue Jays, for example.
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