Regular Season Rumors

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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:04 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
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David wrote:
you mean blowing like a 7 game lead and missing the playoffs wasn't their goal last year?


which moves made by the brewers do you disagree with and why?

They basically did nothing at the deadline last year except Swarzak (I think), if they added Q or another SP or another bat they could've held us off or made the WC. They went in to the year planning on guys like Sogard, Arcia, Villar, their catchers, Santana and a whole rotation that had questions all over them and all those bats died (luckily Aguilar hit like Trout in the first half to make up for it) and the defense helps shield horsefeathers starting pitching and now they are doing something likely hurt why the SP was doing good enough while also barely improving on offense.


I don't think I need to point out why this doesn't count as analysis as much as its just handwaving away the possibility that the brewers are good and have done well since last offseason.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:06 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:it gets the same "ahahah wow galaxy brain" jokes that all their other moves do, but nothing substantive. Everything the brewers have done since what, last trade deadline, get a bunch of "this won't work" jokes that everyone pretends counts as analysis.

"Travis Shaw can't play second base he's 240 pounds! Wow Moustakas at third? Guess their pitching won't be good anymore." That's not analysis, it's wish-casting.


The Brewer rotation is Jhoulys Chacin, Junior Guerra, Chase Anderson, Freddy Peralta, and Zach Davies.

Those 5 have beat their FIP by .45, .70, 1.31, -.18, and .07 respectively.

The Brewer infield UZR this year:

1B: 2.1 - no deadline change
2B: -0.9 - going from Sogard/Villar/Perez to Shaw
SS: 3.6 - going from Villar/Saladino to Schoop(a career -1 UZR 2B)
3B: 5.0 - going from Shaw to Moustakas

They're making themselves actively worse defensively in the middle infield to get Schoop(.306 wOBA, .320 career) and Moustakas(.325 woBA, .316 career) into the lineup. If you want to call it wish-casting to be baffled that they're doing this when their rotation offers only hope for regression instead of improvement even before the defensive changes, that's okay. These are just objectively baffling moves though. Stearns has made some real bright moves, and his aggressiveness has helped stave off the regression that was coming from Santana, Thames, and Braun, but just like you literally said Theo has had a bad year of making moves and still probably think he's pretty good, Stearns squandered this trade deadline.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:09 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:it gets the same "ahahah wow galaxy brain" jokes that all their other moves do, but nothing substantive. Everything the brewers have done since what, last trade deadline, get a bunch of "this won't work" jokes that everyone pretends counts as analysis.

"Travis Shaw can't play second base he's 240 pounds! Wow Moustakas at third? Guess their pitching won't be good anymore." That's not analysis, it's wish-casting.


I haven't really done that. I'm sure I made fun of them for not doing anything of substance at the deadline last year -- which might have been smart since they finished one game out of the Wild Card. But I thought the Yelich move was a great move. I praised them for it.

I thought the Cain move was odd, since I thought they should have focused more on pitching. That move is working great for them now. But it remains to be seen how it will look long-term.

Mainly I've been critical of him taking half measures. The galaxy brain stuff is normally reserved for their fans. But he's went full brewerfan.net poster this deadline.


They went from Shaw/Arcia/VillarPerez to Moustakas/Schoop/Shaw. That's an upgrade no matter how much Shaw weighs. Put Shaw in the OF and Schoop at 2B when you have a GB pitcher on the mound if you're that worried about defense.

Villar had a better bWAR and same fWAR as Schoop this year
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:10 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:it gets the same "ahahah wow galaxy brain" jokes that all their other moves do, but nothing substantive. Everything the brewers have done since what, last trade deadline, get a bunch of "this won't work" jokes that everyone pretends counts as analysis.

"Travis Shaw can't play second base he's 240 pounds! Wow Moustakas at third? Guess their pitching won't be good anymore." That's not analysis, it's wish-casting.


The Brewer rotation is Jhoulys Chacin, Junior Guerra, Chase Anderson, Freddy Peralta, and Zach Davies.

Those 5 have beat their FIP by .45, .70, 1.31, -.18, and .07 respectively.

The Brewer infield UZR this year:

1B: 2.1 - no deadline change
2B: -0.9 - going from Sogard/Villar/Perez to Shaw
SS: 3.6 - going from Villar/Saladino to Schoop(a career -1 UZR 2B)
3B: 5.0 - going from Shaw to Moustakas

They're making themselves actively worse defensively in the middle infield to get Schoop(.306 wOBA, .320 career) and Moustakas(.325 woBA, .316 career) into the lineup. If you want to call it wish-casting to be baffled that they're doing this when their rotation offers only hope for regression instead of improvement even before the defensive changes, that's okay. These are just objectively baffling moves though. Stearns has made some real bright moves, and his aggressiveness has helped stave off the regression that was coming from Santana, Thames, and Braun, but just like you literally said Theo has had a bad year of making moves and still probably think he's pretty good, Stearns squandered this trade deadline.


"They potentially got worse defensively at 2 IF spots" does not equal "they got worse as a team."

Luckily for us, our head start on our roster+ our market size means that their moves are likely not enough. But a lot of the "oh hoh hoh it's cute how the brewers are trying" stuff is falling real flat as it appears that they actually have a good team and a good GM.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:10 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
I haven't really done that. I'm sure I made fun of them for not doing anything of substance at the deadline last year -- which might have been smart since they finished one game out of the Wild Card. But I thought the Yelich move was a great move. I praised them for it.

I thought the Cain move was odd, since I thought they should have focused more on pitching. That move is working great for them now. But it remains to be seen how it will look long-term.

Mainly I've been critical of him taking half measures. The galaxy brain stuff is normally reserved for their fans. But he's went full brewerfan.net poster this deadline.


They went from Shaw/Arcia/VillarPerez to Moustakas/Schoop/Shaw. That's an upgrade no matter how much Shaw weighs. Put Shaw in the OF and Schoop at 2B when you have a GB pitcher on the mound if you're that worried about defense.

Villar had a batter bWAR and same fWAR as Schoop this year


You think Villar is a better player than Schoop?
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:12 pm

Also, upgrading from Arcia and Villar or whoever was possible without moving guys all over the field. They could have traded for actual middle infielders. They also could have still added a starting pitcher.

Even if they got better, it is a strange and inefficient route to get there.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:12 pm

Duke Silver wrote:Also, upgrading from Arcia and Villar or whoever was possible without moving guys all over the field. They could have traded for actual middle infielders. They also could have still added a starting pitcher.

Even if they got better, it is a strange and inefficient route to get there.


horsefeathers now they're going to lose the efficiency olympics too?
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:13 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
They went from Shaw/Arcia/VillarPerez to Moustakas/Schoop/Shaw. That's an upgrade no matter how much Shaw weighs. Put Shaw in the OF and Schoop at 2B when you have a GB pitcher on the mound if you're that worried about defense.

Villar had a batter bWAR and same fWAR as Schoop this year


You think Villar is a better player than Schoop?

I think they are similar, they get their value differently but are close. Especially if the comp is going to be Villar the 2B vs Schoop the SS.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:14 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:Also, upgrading from Arcia and Villar or whoever was possible without moving guys all over the field. They could have traded for actual middle infielders. They also could have still added a starting pitcher.

Even if they got better, it is a strange and inefficient route to get there.


horsefeathers now they're going to lose the efficiency olympics too?


That's kinda what people judge at the deadline. It is pretty obvious they were going to be buyers and improve their team like nearly every contender did. I think they did the worst job at it this year.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:14 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Villar had a batter bWAR and same fWAR as Schoop this year


You think Villar is a better player than Schoop?

I think they are similar, they get their value differently but are close. Especially if the comp is going to be Villar the 2B vs Schoop the SS.


which IF do you prefer? Shaw/Arcia/VillarPerez or Moustakas/SchoopArcia/Shaw? Now put yourself in the mindset of a GM who knows the first one isn't good enough to win the division.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:15 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
You think Villar is a better player than Schoop?

I think they are similar, they get their value differently but are close. Especially if the comp is going to be Villar the 2B vs Schoop the SS.


which IF do you prefer? Shaw/Arcia/VillarPerez or Moustakas/SchoopArcia/Shaw? Now put yourself in the mindset of a GM who knows the first one isn't good enough to win the division.


The one with Manny Machado in it.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:15 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
You think Villar is a better player than Schoop?

I think they are similar, they get their value differently but are close. Especially if the comp is going to be Villar the 2B vs Schoop the SS.


which IF do you prefer? Shaw/Arcia/VillarPerez or Moustakas/SchoopArcia/Shaw? Now put yourself in the mindset of a GM who knows the first one isn't good enough to win the division.

I prefer neither, they are both bad for different reasons. They gave up enough for Schoop they should've just gotten Machado or Escobar or a real MIF.


Villar is also a lot better vs LHP in his career than Schoop if they are going to do some weird platoon thing.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:19 pm

Duke Silver wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I think they are similar, they get their value differently but are close. Especially if the comp is going to be Villar the 2B vs Schoop the SS.


which IF do you prefer? Shaw/Arcia/VillarPerez or Moustakas/SchoopArcia/Shaw? Now put yourself in the mindset of a GM who knows the first one isn't good enough to win the division.


The one with Manny Machado in it.


this type of analysis is sooooooo bad. Whether or not they got Machado has 0 bearing on whether they improved or not, and people keep shifting back and forth between "actually it's bad because their defense got worse actually it's bad because it wasn't the most efficient use of their resources actually it's bad because ummmmmmmmm."
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:19 pm

Also Schoop has one year of arbitration left and makes $8.5 million this year. Whatever he makes next year ($12-15 million??) isn't nothing for a lower payroll team like the Brewers. That's well over 10% of their payroll on him.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:20 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
which IF do you prefer? Shaw/Arcia/VillarPerez or Moustakas/SchoopArcia/Shaw? Now put yourself in the mindset of a GM who knows the first one isn't good enough to win the division.


The one with Manny Machado in it.


this type of analysis is sooooooo bad. Whether or not they got Machado has 0 bearing on whether they improved or not, and people keep shifting back and forth between "actually it's bad because their defense got worse actually it's bad because it wasn't the most efficient use of their resources actually it's bad because ummmmmmmmm."

It's almost like it's bad for a lot of reasons
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:22 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
The one with Manny Machado in it.


this type of analysis is sooooooo bad. Whether or not they got Machado has 0 bearing on whether they improved or not, and people keep shifting back and forth between "actually it's bad because their defense got worse actually it's bad because it wasn't the most efficient use of their resources actually it's bad because ummmmmmmmm."

It's almost like it's bad for a lot of reasons


Or maybe, and I recognize this is hard to understand when you're still basking in that new middle-reliever glow, but maybe they just wanted to improve their team and it doesn't actually matter how efficiently they did it.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:23 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
this type of analysis is sooooooo bad. Whether or not they got Machado has 0 bearing on whether they improved or not, and people keep shifting back and forth between "actually it's bad because their defense got worse actually it's bad because it wasn't the most efficient use of their resources actually it's bad because ummmmmmmmm."

It's almost like it's bad for a lot of reasons


Or maybe, and I recognize this is hard to understand when you're still basking in that new middle-reliever glow, but maybe they just wanted to improve their team and it doesn't actually matter how efficiently they did it.

I think I've made this clear, I really don't think they made their team any better
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:26 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:It's almost like it's bad for a lot of reasons


Or maybe, and I recognize this is hard to understand when you're still basking in that new middle-reliever glow, but maybe they just wanted to improve their team and it doesn't actually matter how efficiently they did it.

I think I've made this clear, I really don't think they made their team any better


unfortunately you are wrong, but like i said luckily we have a 100 million or so head start on them so it's probably fine
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:27 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
which IF do you prefer? Shaw/Arcia/VillarPerez or Moustakas/SchoopArcia/Shaw? Now put yourself in the mindset of a GM who knows the first one isn't good enough to win the division.


The one with Manny Machado in it.


this type of analysis is sooooooo bad. Whether or not they got Machado has 0 bearing on whether they improved or not, and people keep shifting back and forth between "actually it's bad because their defense got worse actually it's bad because it wasn't the most efficient use of their resources actually it's bad because ummmmmmmmm."


It's bad because it's bad.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:28 pm

Duke Silver wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
The one with Manny Machado in it.


this type of analysis is sooooooo bad. Whether or not they got Machado has 0 bearing on whether they improved or not, and people keep shifting back and forth between "actually it's bad because their defense got worse actually it's bad because it wasn't the most efficient use of their resources actually it's bad because ummmmmmmmm."


It's bad because it's bad.


hell yeah the kind of in-depth horsefeathers i like
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:29 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
this type of analysis is sooooooo bad. Whether or not they got Machado has 0 bearing on whether they improved or not, and people keep shifting back and forth between "actually it's bad because their defense got worse actually it's bad because it wasn't the most efficient use of their resources actually it's bad because ummmmmmmmm."


It's bad because it's bad.


hell yeah the kind of in-depth horsefeathers i like


I already gave the in-depth of why it's bad. They went from the 2015 Royals to the 2017 Cardinals.
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:29 pm

this argument is more boring than the cubs trades
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby David » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:29 pm

lol the only time imb posts anything remotely serious in baseball discussions is when he wants to doom boner troll all over the place
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby David » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:30 pm

if this were the cardinals you'd already have schoop MSPainted driving around with a case of bud by his side
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Re: Regular Season Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:31 pm

David wrote:if this were the cardinals you'd already have schoop MSPainted driving around with a case of bud by his side


as much as i'd like for brewers players to start dying in car crashes it just hasn't happened yet.
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