The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

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The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:27 pm

We've got a truly interesting off-season ahead of us, under just about any circumstance. Bryce? Manny? No idea, but honestly think we'll get one of them.....

That said, our payroll situation is going to be extremely interesting. Are we going to go over the luxury tax? Yeah, we will. Theo has kind of made mention of being strategical with it.

That said, here's the thing....... The luxury tax will be set at 206 mill next year.

Here are the penalties...... Go over and it's a 20, 30, and 50% taxes on the overages, IF you stay under the MAX penalty range, for the first 3 years of going over...... The max penalties are 42.5%, 45, and 45 for those 3 years. Plus a 10 spot draft pick penalty.

It's just money. Could we go over that if we wanted to? Most definitely. But, no team has and I don't think a single team ever will. Not with the dogfight of the next CBA on the horizon and the players union looking at numbers that CURRENTLY show where the luxury tax SHOULD be set at 275 mill RIGHT NOW, based on revenues. Owners aren't going to give them that ammo heading into negotiations, everyone's staying under that top number.........

If we sign a qualified FA, thinking of Bryce here obviously...... It costs is our 2nd and 5th round picks and pool money, plus 1 mill in IFA money too. Obviously, that stuff doesn't keep you from signing a guy.

But, if you sign a guy, then also go over the top end of the tax? That's a hell of a draft hit to take, when your system is as horsefeathers as ours is and we need to have ammo to trade from......Not a MAJOR thing here, but a minor reason we won't head past the top end...... Again, main reason being that no team is going to do it........

Still, where do we stand, heading into the offseason?

Under Contract Luxury Tax Numbers

Lester-25.833
Heyward-23
Darvish-21
Zobrist-14
Chatwood-12.667
Morrow-10.5
Rizzo-5.857
Cishek-6.5
Duensing-3.5
Smyly-5

Total-127.857

Options that will get picked up.....
Quintana-10.5
Strop-6.25

Total-16.75 (144.627 Total)

Arbitration Estimates.....
Bryant-14.5, raise from 10.850
Hendricks-7.750, raise from 4.175
Russell-5, raise from 3.2.
Seal Boy-1.2, raise from .950k

Total-28.450 (173.077 Total)

1st Year Arbitration Eligibles......

Javy- 4
Schwarber-3
Montgomery-2.3
Edwards-2.3

Total-11.6(184.677 Overall)

The arb numbers are obviously guesses, but I doubt I'm off more than 2-3 mill in either direction.

Other Options......

Hamels-20
Kintzler-5

Seriously, if one year of Hamels pitching anything NEAR this is available, then we pick up his option, no questions asked. Obviously we've got time to decide on him and his performance will dictate things......

Kintzler? We've got a 10 mill team option we'll decline. But, he's got a 5 mill p!ayers option. I'm a reliever heavy FA class, I bet he exercises his option and he's back...... For this purpose, we'll add him......

New Overall Total-189.677

Now, add in 5 or minimum level contracts to fill out the 25 Man roster. That's 2.750 mill more.....192.427

Now, add 2.5 more to fill out the rest of your 40 man. 194.927

Then, you are adding 12-15 mill for insurances and we're literally at or slightly above the luxury tax, before the off-season even begins......

Add Harper and we push the upper max. But, we've got small moves to relieve some salary too. Add Hamels too and we've got some serious decisions to make elsewhere......

My guess right now is we add Bryce at 35 per. Attach a small prospect to move Kintzler and Duensing. Trade 2 of Addy, Almora, and Happ to come up with the best starting pitcher we can get. Probably move Monty for a prospect or in the deal for a starter too. Nontender or deal Seal Boy.

Hopefully, these moves give you the ability to sign Bryce, add a controlled starter, and leave us enough money to still pick up a reliever too. Along with money for the deadline......

Plenty of options...... Move Zobrist is a possibility. Or attach enough to move Chatwood. If you're not adding Bryce or Manny, you can probably add a Pollock and Andrew Miller combo for the same price as one of those 2. Anyway, lots of options.......

But damn, it kind of starts with Hamels..... 20 mill. He continues on like this, I think it's a no brainer.......

Thoughts??????
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Bote McBoteface » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:23 pm

I feel like even if Hamels continues like this you can decline the option, which Texas pays the 6mm buyout, and then try to sign him to like a 2/25 deal. I’d be shocked if we pick up that option.

Im pretty sure Harper is ours

I think Russell + one of Happ/Almora will be traded for a young ace-calibur SP.

I think we’ll likely find a taker for one or both of Heyward and Zobrist, eating a bunch of money in the process.

Chatwood might be assassinated

Schwarber/Almora or Happ/ Harper in the OF
Bryant/Baez/Bote(and-or Zobrist)/Rizzo/Contreras in the IF

SP: Darvish/Hamels/Hendricks/Trade/Lester

Edit: I forgot Q exists. I doubt Lester is tradeable without eating the whole salary. We might not be interested in Hamels even at a reduced salary.
Last edited by Bote McBoteface on Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:08 am

I’d like to see something like

Give Hamels 2/18-25 if this continues

Sign Bryce to 30-35 AAV

Re-sign Chavez for Duensings deal this year

Attach Almora and another nothing prospect with Chatwood and take a minor leaguer or backup catcher back

Trade like Caritini with a prospect to move Duensing

Non-tender Seal boy

Hope Kintzler doesn’t opt in and obviously don’t pick up his option

Position players (12)

KB
Rizzo
Baez
Zobrist
Russell
Bote
Happ
Schwarber
Heyward
Bryce
Willy
Back up C

Pitchers (13) (maybe go 6-man)

Lester
Yu
Hendricks
Q
Hamels
Monty
Chavez
Smyly
Strop
Cishek
Carl
Morrow
Maples/Mekkes/Bass/Whatever


Hopefully that’s enough to keep us under the upper LT tier and also is based on them feeling comfortable Bote can play some OF and CF. But that’s my ideal offseason.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:40 am

Is there a way we could pay Bryce like 28 mil in the first year or two of the deal and then 42 in years 3 and 4 as a way to stay below the worst penalty and give us time to unload/let expire other contracts?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:45 am

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:Is there a way we could pay Bryce like 28 mil in the first year or two of the deal and then 42 in years 3 and 4 as a way to stay below the worst penalty and give us time to unload/let expire other contracts?

It’s the total guaranteed money divided by the guaranteed years for LT purposes, it doesn’t matter how you actually pay the money
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby treebird » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:40 am

good post............i liked it 8-)
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:09 am

I'm optimistic about them being able to move one or both of Heyward and Chatwood. Seattle?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:16 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:I'm optimistic about them being able to move one or both of Heyward and Chatwood. Seattle?

I mean this entirely seriously, I want to keep Heyward. We can still fit Bryce in with him and I’ll buy in he’s figured it out enough offensively and he’s still good on defense. Plus I think he’s an awesome teammate and clubhouse guy.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:02 am

Cubswin11 wrote:I mean this entirely seriously, I want to keep Heyward. We can still fit Bryce in with him and I’ll buy in he’s figured it out enough offensively and he’s still good on defense. Plus I think he’s an awesome teammate and clubhouse guy.


I'm optimistic about Heyward as a player in general, so sure. He's definitely not one of the top 5 players I'd try to trade this offseason. Zobrist, Duensing, Chatwood, Almora, and/or Happ...I'll change my statement to "I'm confident the FO can move whoever they choose to move."
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:05 am

To move guys like that, the first question is how much do you think they'd get on the open market?

My honest guess is you could get Chatwood on a 1/4 type of deal, with incentives. Heyward? He's obviously had a better season. But, those 2 years damaged the value a bunch, he's 29, and he's still primarily a defense-first guy and it's hard to see teams paying up for that, especially as he ages. My honest guess is Heyward would get 1/15 or maybe 2/25 on the open market, at this point.

So, I seriously doubt we'd put enough with Heyward, to move him. Chatwood? Maybe, I guess? I think it's be to a rebuilding team, looking to rehab his value, to put with a decent prospect or 2, in taking on the contract.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:20 am

i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:55 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I'm optimistic about them being able to move one or both of Heyward and Chatwood. Seattle?



Nobody is going to take Heyward's contract and if we have to throw in a ton of cash, then what's the point?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:59 pm

17 Seconds wrote:i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.


I totally agree with you. Let's see what happens with the rest of this year, but pitching certainly needs to be addressed in the off season.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby weis21 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:20 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.


I totally agree with you. Let's see what happens with the rest of this year, but pitching certainly needs to be addressed in the off season.

Nah. That's what the trades are for.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby SouthSideRyan » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:36 pm

davell wrote:My honest guess is you could get Chatwood on a 1/4 type of deal, with incentives.


I wouldn’t be surprised if Chatwood would have to settle for a minor league deal.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:42 pm

weis21 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.


I totally agree with you. Let's see what happens with the rest of this year, but pitching certainly needs to be addressed in the off season.

Nah. That's what the trades are for.



That's what I meant since trades happen during the off season. Myy point was to see which of our players would have the most trade value by seeing what happens the rest of the way and seeing what happens to other teams to affect their thought process on trades.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:06 pm

I just really don't see us trading Heyward, and I also don't see us going with a Schwarber-Heyward-Harper outfield, as much fun as the lineups would be. I think if we sign Harper then we will trade Schwarber, which meas we should be able to get a good SP back.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:10 pm

If we get Bryce, I think an Almora/Heyward CF platoon would be nice. Happ seems like the guy to me that's probably got the most value, between him, Almora, and Russell, plus the most team control. So, he seems the easiest to move.

The more I think about Russell, I think we're probably stuck with him. He's coming off a down year, he only has 3 years left...... Who's trading for him? I can't find a contender or even a team that wants/thinks they're competing next year, that he represents a true upgrade over. And with just 3 years left, it's not enough control for the tanking teams.......
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:37 pm

davell wrote:If we get Bryce, I think an Almora/Heyward CF platoon would be nice.


I hope you are right, because I agree. Id like to keep Schwarber, its just he has so much more value than any of the other guys we'd be willing to trade and could actually get us something exciting back.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:43 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:
davell wrote:If we get Bryce, I think an Almora/Heyward CF platoon would be nice.


I hope you are right, because I agree. Id like to keep Schwarber, its just he has so much more value than any of the other guys we'd be willing to trade and could actually get us something exciting back.

I really don't know if Schwarber would have more value than Happ. Considering control, positional versatility, etc. There's almost certainly teams that would value them differently and prefer one over the other, but I don't think it's a crazy idea to think Happ is the better/more valuable trade piece.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:45 pm

17 Seconds wrote:i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.


If you sign Harper (or Machado), you can trade some combination of cost controlled cheaper position players (Almora, Bote, Happ, Russell, etc.) for pitching. The pitching free agency market is both expensive and injury prone so I think you're better off spending your funds on the more safe position players and trying to acquire cheaper pitching.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:31 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:I just really don't see us trading Heyward, and I also don't see us going with a Schwarber-Heyward-Harper outfield, as much fun as the lineups would be. I think if we sign Harper then we will trade Schwarber, which meas we should be able to get a good SP back.


This crossed my mind yesterday, especially(?) if they trade for a SP in the AL.

Cubswin11 wrote:I really don't know if Schwarber would have more value than Happ. Considering control, positional versatility, etc. There's almost certainly teams that would value them differently and prefer one over the other, but I don't think it's a crazy idea to think Happ is the better/more valuable trade piece.


Schwarber’s bat is a way better bet than Happ’s in a given year so he should easily hold more value.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:49 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.


If you sign Harper (or Machado), you can trade some combination of cost controlled cheaper position players (Almora, Bote, Happ, Russell, etc.) for pitching. The pitching free agency market is both expensive and injury prone so I think you're better off spending your funds on the more safe position players and trying to acquire cheaper pitching.


yeah, i didn't mean free agency pitching. the optimal plan would be sign harper/machado and then use some of almora/scwharber/happ/russell for a good starter. i just don't like the plan mentioned above of keeping the current rotation (with hamels). hendricks/darvish/lester/q are pretty much locked in. getting a starter shouldn't conflict with getting harper, i just think it's the #1 priority, even if it means eating money on heyward/chatwood or taking on another bad contract.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Old Style » Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:32 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.


If you sign Harper (or Machado), you can trade some combination of cost controlled cheaper position players (Almora, Bote, Happ, Russell, etc.) for pitching. The pitching free agency market is both expensive and injury prone so I think you're better off spending your funds on the more safe position players and trying to acquire cheaper pitching.

Ban this guy for daring to suggest we trade Bote.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Old Style » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:17 pm

Supposedly Machado wants to sign with the Yankees in the off-season.

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