The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby muntjack » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:15 pm

Eh he's 25, he's had 250 career PAs against lefties, and this year he had a .350 OBP against them. I'm not sure he's a lost cause.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:18 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:ooh, now do one for all of his other at bats against lefties!

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I'm just saying that the man pumps dongs. Never forget.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby The Logan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:24 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Because he can't hit LH pitchers.


Schwarber started 115 games in LF. 10 of them were vs. lefties. People who started in LF when Schwarber didn't:

Ian Happ - 27 games
Kris Bryant - 10 games (all in September, and likely because of the Murphy addition & Russell subtraction)
Ben Zobrist - 10 games

So Ian Happ was the go-to hitter to hit lefties instead of Schwarber, right?

Ian Happ vs. LHP: .202/.291/.317/.608
Kyle Schwarber: .224/.352/.303/.654

Also, his .352 OBP vs lefties was 6th best on the team for players with 50 or more AB's vs. lefties. Happ's .291 OBP was the worst. He may not hit dongs vs. lefties, but at least he can get on base. Getting Zobrist or Bryant out there obviously makes more sense, offensively, but their value is obviously being better used at other positions.

He's a "brainy" enough hitter that he should be able to make adjust and commit to being better vs. LHP. Hell, RIzzo sucked his first two years and then he excelled at hitting lefties because he made adjustments to do so. Schwarber spent a lot of time trying to fix that this past offseason but wasn't given the opportunity to prove himself. If you're going to platoon him with someone who is worse than he is, just keep him out there and let him figure it out or get someone who is, I don't know, actually better than he is vs. lefties (like Bryce Harper, maybe?).

#FREESCHWARBER
#ORATLEASATPLATOONHIMWITHSOMEONEWHOISNTIANHAPP
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:22 pm

Happ sucks against lefties, too; his splits are further argument that Joe is a horsefeathering dork when the obvious CF platoon was staring him in the face the ENTIRE horsefeathering TIME, not an endorsement of Schwarber getting more playing time.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:26 pm

The Logan wrote:He's a "brainy" enough hitter that he should be able to make adjust and commit to being better vs. LHP. Hell, RIzzo sucked his first two years and then he excelled at hitting lefties because he made adjustments to do so. Schwarber spent a lot of time trying to fix that this past offseason but wasn't given the opportunity to prove himself. If you're going to platoon him with someone who is worse than he is, just keep him out there and let him figure it out or get someone who is, I don't know, actually better than he is vs. lefties (like Bryce Harper, maybe?).

#FREESCHWARBER
#ORATLEASATPLATOONHIMWITHSOMEONEWHOISNTIANHAPP


Rizzo had about 500 PA in his first couple of seasons and only just turned 23 after that second season; Schwarber already has over 1200 under his belt and is going to be 26 before next season. That .250 OPS chasm between facing lefties and righties likely ain't getting much better at this point.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:28 pm

KingCubsFan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
KingCubsFan wrote:I'd look to add 3-4 legit pen arms


Oh, that's all?

Jorge De La Rosa was our closer at the end of the year. We're starting from scratch.


They can't afford to add 3-4 go-to bullpen guys. And they're not starting from scratch since some of those guys are coming back.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby The Logan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:39 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
The Logan wrote:He's a "brainy" enough hitter that he should be able to make adjust and commit to being better vs. LHP. Hell, RIzzo sucked his first two years and then he excelled at hitting lefties because he made adjustments to do so. Schwarber spent a lot of time trying to fix that this past offseason but wasn't given the opportunity to prove himself. If you're going to platoon him with someone who is worse than he is, just keep him out there and let him figure it out or get someone who is, I don't know, actually better than he is vs. lefties (like Bryce Harper, maybe?).

#FREESCHWARBER
#ORATLEASATPLATOONHIMWITHSOMEONEWHOISNTIANHAPP


Rizzo had about 500 PA in his first couple of seasons and only just turned 23 after that second season; Schwarber already has over 1200 under his belt and is going to be 26 before next season. That .250 OPS chasm between facing lefties and righties likely ain't getting much better at this point.


You're mixing his SD season in there, I was using strictly his first two Cubs season. You are also using total PA's as an excuse to say he can't hit LHP when he's only had 250 total PA's, which is less than half a year's worth, vs. LHP over the course of 337 games. Rizzo had 323 PA's vs. LHP in his first two Cubs seasons, over a total of 247 games.

I'm not necessarily advocating for him to be the full-time starter, and to be honest I don't personally believe he can do what Rizzo did and flip a switch and hit better vs. lefties than righties like Rizzo did in 2014, I just think the "Kyle can't hit LHP" statement is not completely true. He sucked the worst during his first taste of MLB pitching in 2015 over the course of 50 whopping PA's, and as a result, he's been doomed to be a career platoon guy in the Cubs eyes. That's silly. Especially when you consider he obliterated LHP in the minors (.976 OPS in 2014 and 1.008 in 2015). I understand the Cubs were committed to Rizzo and let him adjust because it was during a rebuild and they could afford to play him, and Schwarber is on a team that is a perennial contender and they can't afford to hurt themselves because they need to win... but if they're playing someone worse than him, and don't have the option to play someone better, why sit him in the first horsefeathering place? And if the Cubs FO is going to give all this lip service about how much they love him, then they need to let him right the ship vs. lefties if the alternative is Ian Happ.

All that said, I don't mind trading him at all, but when the return is a bullpen arm or something less than what we expect no one reserves the right to complain since the FO killed his potential value by making him a platoon player. A Harper acquisition will either a) make him expendable or b) make platooning him logical... but even then Harper doesn't exactly obliterate lefties either. A .796 OPS vs lefties is good, but not the world-beating performance we'd expect from someone like him... but he's a far greater option to platoon Schwarber with than what we have now, especially when you consider his recent performance vs. lefties (.830 OPS last two seasons).

Still... #FREESCHWARBERASLONGASIANHAPPISTHEALTERNATIVE
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:55 pm

I seriously doubt the Cubs' FO deemed Schwarber a platoon player over only 50 in-game PA's. It's almost certainly based on how he's been evaluated as a hitter outside of games as well; yeah, he only has 250 PA against lefties, yet the guy is rocking a remarkably consistent .275-ish BAbip against both righties and lefites, indicating this is likely just who he is. Combine that with his value arguably inflated by unsustainable defensive value and it doesn't really make, "start him just because Ian Happ is on the team," a terribly convincing argument. They don't have to start Happ instead of him.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby The Logan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:33 pm

They don't have to, but they do, and that's the problem. You have the option to play two people against lefties. One of them can't hit or get on base vs. lefties. The other one can't hit but can get on base vs. lefties. Why start the one who can't do either of them well? As you alluded to earlier, this is probably Joe just being stupid about matchups thinking he needs a righty against a lefty, but if they go into next season with the intent to make Happ and Schwarber the LF platoon again it's objectively better to just start Schwarber full time instead.

Now if you said they're gonna start Bryant vs. lefties in LF and do an IF of Bote/Baez/Zobrist/Rizzo or whoever then yeah fine, please horsefeathering do that that would be fantastic. But if you're not, leave Happ out of the equation and either let Schwarber play or get a platoon bat that actually fits. Harper solves this problem (among others).
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:41 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
KingCubsFan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Oh, that's all?

Jorge De La Rosa was our closer at the end of the year. We're starting from scratch.


They can't afford to add 3-4 go-to bullpen guys. And they're not starting from scratch since some of those guys are coming back.

Yeah they’re not turning over the bullpen like crazy. At most I’d expect 2 additions then the rest are internal options. Morrow/Carl/Strop/Cishek/at least 1 and probably both of Monty and Smyly are all guaranteed spots. Then you have a FA (Chavez?) and potential trade addition then it will be rounded out by a Rule 5 guy, Randy, Norwood, Maples, Webster, Mills, etc.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:41 pm

I'm really not sure how to reply to this hypothetical binary idea that the Cubs are locked into having LF covered by only Schwarber or Happ going forward if both remain on the team. Nobody wants that, AND starting Schwarber full time isn't the answer.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby The Logan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:46 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I'm really not sure how to reply to this hypothetical binary idea that the Cubs are locked into having LF covered by only Schwarber or Happ going forward if both remain on the team. Nobody wants that, AND starting Schwarber full time isn't the answer.


I agree, but this year they proved that Schwarber or Happ were the only primary options, and if they don't add someone to fix that this offseason, we're probably getting that again. Which is gross.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:51 pm

The Logan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I'm really not sure how to reply to this hypothetical binary idea that the Cubs are locked into having LF covered by only Schwarber or Happ going forward if both remain on the team. Nobody wants that, AND starting Schwarber full time isn't the answer.


I agree, but this year they proved that Schwarber or Happ were the only primary options, and if they don't add someone to fix that this offseason, we're probably getting that again. Which is gross.

Even in the scenario where we keep the entire offensive roster (which it doesn’t seem likely) and only add Bryce and a backup MIF who can play SS and shift Javy to 2B vs LHP(let’s say Mercer, who’s good against lefties) we have LF covered with 3 non Happ/Schwarber options internally with Bryant/Zobrist/Bote.

I would assume a Cameron Maybin, Austin Jackson, etc RHB type will be added once a Schwarber, Happ, etc is traded off.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:54 pm

The Logan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I'm really not sure how to reply to this hypothetical binary idea that the Cubs are locked into having LF covered by only Schwarber or Happ going forward if both remain on the team. Nobody wants that, AND starting Schwarber full time isn't the answer.


I agree, but this year they proved that Schwarber or Happ were the only primary options, and if they don't add someone to fix that this offseason, we're probably getting that again. Which is gross.


Well, sure, if the Cubs inexplicably make no change to the OF besides signing Harper, despite having 3 guys between Happ, Schwarber and Heyward who can't hit lefties, then yes, having only Schwarber or Happ in LF would indeed suck.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:55 pm

i STILL don't want to trade schwarber. i don't care if it makes sense to move him. i will love him until something off the field makes me not.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:57 pm

17 Seconds wrote:i STILL don't want to trade schwarber. i don't care if it makes sense to move him. i will love him until something off the field makes me not.

I agree. I really don’t want to move him either and hope we ultimately don’t.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:00 am

Anybody able to find Happ’s splits vs LHP in the minors? I know we have ~200 PAs in MLB to say he isn’t very good, but did he hit them well down there? If not I’d almost prefer he decides to move to a full time LHB soonish and focus on that.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby The Logan » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:33 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Anybody able to find Happ’s splits vs LHP in the minors? I know we have ~200 PAs in MLB to say he isn’t very good, but did he hit them well down there? If not I’d almost prefer he decides to move to a full time LHB soonish and focus on that.


Depending on the level he was feast or famine. MiLB profiles have splits for minors if you want to look them up
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Bertz » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:46 pm

MLBTR has their arbitration projections out.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/ ... -2019.html

If they cut Russell and Kintzler exercises his option, I have the Cubs at $205.3m ($0.7m under the cap) for tax purposes right at this moment.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:47 pm

God, that Kintzler trade was so horsefeathering terrible.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:22 pm

boy that'd be a helluva raise for javy
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:22 pm

MLBTR Arbitration Estimates.....

Kris Bryant-12.4
Kyle Hendricks-7.6
Javy Baez- 7.1
Kyle Schwarber-3.1
Mike Montgomery -3.0
Carl Edwards Jr-1.4
Tommy La Stella-1.2

If they tender him......

Addison Russell-4.3
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:25 pm

Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:28 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.


that was my first thought as well, but then who are you getting to do the same thing for less?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Brian » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:30 pm

Bote plays more positions and has more power, but probably sucks
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