The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:33 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.


that was my first thought as well, but then who are you getting to do the same thing for less?

Zobrist/Bote/Happ/FA guy like Mercer or Galvis. The role is mostly filled internally with whoever is on the bench on a given day and the roster spot is taken from the FA MIF addition that can play SS (Mercer or Galvis for example probably only costs $2-3 million more than the $1.2 and fills an actual need/role).
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:58 pm

Both Bote and Seal Boy are likely to be mainstays next year, in my mind. I feel pretty sure at least one of Schwarber or Happ is going to get dealt.

If we use MLBTR's arb estimates, we're basically sitting at 232 mill for luxury tax purposes...... With a 246 Top End Hurdle......

The 232 includes the following......

All players under contract and options getting picked up on Quintana, Strop, Hamels, and Kintzler picking up his.
Also includes minimum salary guys, 3 million cushion for in season callups, 2.25 for the rest of your 40 Man roster, and 15 million for player benefits and insurance......

The 232 does not include Addison Russell.

We can lower Hamels number. We might not even need to, there's a chance his LT hit is just 14.....

I think that we definitely are going to go balls out to get Bryce or Manny. And I suspect we'll add a very solid reliever too. Not a 40-50+ mill guy, but a David Robertson type. And I can see us going after whichever SS falls in the market, in the group of Iglesias, Mercer, Galvis, or Hechevarria.......(Hoping for Marwin Gonzalez personally)

At any rate, I feel pretty confident that we'll have the ok to get past the top end. But probably only if we land one of the 2 big guys. Granted, we wouldn't need to go past it, unless it's for them.

If the Dodgers or Yankees get one of those 2 and still full their teams out normally, they're going over too. Same with Red Sox, if they went after either.

So, I'm pretty confident we're willing to go past it. Likely with the idea of trying to get back under it the following year, with Zobrist, Morrow, Cishek, Smyly, maybe Hamels coming off the books......(More reason to.just pickup Hamels option actually)
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby The Logan » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:42 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.


that was my first thought as well, but then who are you getting to do the same thing for less?


My dead grandfather could replace Tommy. We wouldn't even know he was gone.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:04 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.


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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:09 am

I've been thinking about ways to get rid of Heyward for a long time. I just don't believe in his bat (even when he's playing well) and think his defense is starting to slip and go backwards. His contract will not age well.

We could just straight up dump him on some team and pay like 90-95% of what's left. I'd only do this if we signed Harper and had a good option for CF. Not sure if playing Happ full-time in CF is ideal. His defense and route running is not great there.

I know engineering 3-team trades is foolish and hard to pull off, but I just don't see a way Stl will make a straight up trade with us. The Redbirds are going to try to move Fowler this offseason. Heyward has a limited NTC and I doubt he wants to go back to Stl.

I imagine Colorado wants to get rid of Ian Desmond so I thought about this:

Cubs get Dexter Fowler + Wade Davis + cash

Rockies get Heyward (+ cash?)

Cardinals get Ian Desmond (+ maybe a prospect?)

Obviously, all these players have warts and bad contracts. Just the degrees and making the money/contracts work out. Do you guys want to trade for Dexter if possible? What about Wade Davis? Not sure if this framework would ever work out, but I think Dexter could bounce back and be a positive influence in the clubhouse. You could split CF between Fowler and Happ (not a great defensive platoon I know). What do you guys think?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:44 am

Philly, Seattle, and Atlanta are the teams I have some hopes of moving Heyward to. I like Seattle and Anaheim for Chatwood. These are all based on nonsense
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby shnsajax » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:29 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Philly, Seattle, and Atlanta are the teams I have some hopes of moving Heyward to. I like Seattle and Anaheim for Chatwood. These are all based on nonsense


Seattle actually makes sense for Chatwood, and we could probably get Dipoto drunk to make the trade.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:24 pm

I don’t know if this is actually legal or how it would be accounted for by MLB (maybe they wouldn’t view it as a new deal but a continuation of his current deal and the current LT hit applies for the next 2 years and only the third year would be accounted as a new deal when that comes?) but if this move is possible it’s a pretty easy way to cut a few million off the LT hit. Guys who know the LT/CBA better chime in.

Lester has 2/47.5 guaranteed left ($22.5 in 19, $15 in 20 and a $10 mil buyout/$25 option in 21). His LT hit is $27.5 (6/155 + $10 mil buyout).

The idea/proposal is...... What if we signed Lester to new a 3/55-60 deal, this cuts ~$8 mil off the cap hit this year, it gives Lester another year and nets him another ~$10 million. Would this be viewed as a new deal? Or would it be viewed as a continuation of his current one and we don’t get the LT discount????

If it’s allowed it’s a win for everyone, imo. We don’t come a ton more out of pocket than we already have to, Lester gets another year and more money guaranteed, we save a pretty significant amount in LT hit this year.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:49 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I don’t know if this is actually legal or how it would be accounted for by MLB (maybe they wouldn’t view it as a new deal but a continuation of his current deal and the current LT hit applies for the next 2 years and only the third year would be accounted as a new deal when that comes?) but if this move is possible it’s a pretty easy way to cut a few million off the LT hit. Guys who know the LT/CBA better chime in.

Lester has 2/47.5 guaranteed left ($22.5 in 19, $15 in 20 and a $10 mil buyout/$25 option in 21). His LT hit is $27.5 (6/155 + $10 mil buyout).

The idea/proposal is...... What if we signed Lester to new a 3/55-60 deal, this cuts ~$8 mil off the cap hit this year, it gives Lester another year and nets him another ~$10 million. Would this be viewed as a new deal? Or would it be viewed as a continuation of his current one and we don’t get the LT discount????


Pretty sure that's a new deal, or at least his new AAV would be based on the three remaining years as opposed to his full 7 year deal, which is what we care about.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:50 pm

Assuming starting point after arbitration is 206M and 246M is the point at which draft picks start being penalized, I'd do the following.

Trade Almora+Chatwood for salary relief (-13M in 2019)
Trade Caratini+Kintzler for salary relief (-5.5M)
Trade Happ+Montomery+Hatch to Colorado for J.Gray (0, 3 years left)
Trade Duensing +1M to ARI for Jarrod Dyson (+1M, one year left on Dyson)
Trade Monasterio+Little to SF for W.Smith(+3.5M, only one year left under contract))

Sign Harper for 10/300 (+30M)
Sign R.Rivera for 1/2.5M (+2.5M)
Sign Z.Britton 3/36M (+12M)
Let Rangers buyout Hamels' option (0M)


C:Contreras
1B:Rizzo
2B:Zobrist
SS:Baez
3B:Bryant
LF:Schwarber
CF:Heyward
RF:Harper

Bench:Bote,Lastella,Rivera,Dyson

SP:Lester,Hendricks,Darvish,Gray,Quintana
RP:Britton,Morrow,Strop,Edwards,Cishek,Smyly,Smith

Gives the Cubs a bullpen of death, another SP with huge upside who's also young, another impact bat, but they certainly do lose depth. This also leaves just under 10M to make any other moves. I don't think Jose Iglesias is the worst option.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:45 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Assuming starting point after arbitration is 206M and 246M is the point at which draft picks start being penalized, I'd do the following.

Trade Almora+Chatwood for salary relief (-13M in 2019)
Trade Caratini+Kintzler for salary relief (-5.5M)
Trade Happ+Montomery+Hatch to Colorado for J.Gray (0, 3 years left)
Trade Duensing +1M to ARI for Jarrod Dyson (+1M, one year left on Dyson)
Trade Monasterio+Little to SF for W.Smith(+3.5M, only one year left under contract))

Sign Harper for 10/300 (+30M)
Sign R.Rivera for 1/2.5M (+2.5M)
Sign Z.Britton 3/36M (+12M)
Let Rangers buyout Hamels' option (0M)


C:Contreras
1B:Rizzo
2B:Zobrist
SS:Baez
3B:Bryant
LF:Schwarber
CF:Heyward
RF:Harper

Bench:Bote,Lastella,Rivera,Dyson

SP:Lester,Hendricks,Darvish,Gray,Quintana
RP:Britton,Morrow,Strop,Edwards,Cishek,Smyly,Smith

Gives the Cubs a bullpen of death, another SP with huge upside who's also young, another impact bat, but they certainly do lose depth. This also leaves just under 10M to make any other moves. I don't think Jose Iglesias is the worst option.

They already traded Monasterio for Daniel Murphy.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tim » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:00 pm

Also, there's no way I'd give Britton a 3/36 contract at this point.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:10 pm

Also, Bryce is getting way more than that. And Almora doesn't get you out from underneath Chatwood. And Brendan Little ain't getting a Will Smith type of return.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby d_money » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:57 pm

davell wrote:Also, Bryce is getting way more than that. And Almora doesn't get you out from underneath Chatwood. And Brendan Little ain't getting a Will Smith type of return.

I would’ve thought Darvish was gonna get $26M - $28M AAV, but the market indicated otherwise ($21M AAV).
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:02 pm

d_money wrote:
davell wrote:Also, Bryce is getting way more than that. And Almora doesn't get you out from underneath Chatwood. And Brendan Little ain't getting a Will Smith type of return.

I would’ve thought Darvish was gonna get $26M - $28M AAV, but the market indicated otherwise ($21M AAV).

Those two aren't remotely the same, come on. Darvish would've gotten that in a normal market (and likely this offseason if he was a FA and coming off the year he had in 17) but teams tightened for this offseason last offseason and salaries and amount of teams in the market were kept down a bit. We also are talking a 26 year old position player, generational talent vs a very good (but not great or young) SP who was already 29/30.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:50 pm

I view the Mariners as a Kintzler or Duensing dumping ground. They’re always open to trades. Pazos coming back would be interesting. Attaching Almora to one there makes sense as they would have a need for him.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:55 pm

Thoughts on Almora (pollock replacement), Adbert and Kintzler for Archie Bradley? In the ballpark?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:02 pm

Also anyone know the date options need to be exercised or declined by? Free agency opens like the day after the World Series, doesn’t it? It has to be around then?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:46 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Thoughts on Almora (pollock replacement), Adbert and Kintzler for Archie Bradley? In the ballpark?


Maybe? You guys are going to love this - I’d acquire Bradley to convert back to a SP for 2020

I think option dates are early Nov
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:18 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Thoughts on Almora (pollock replacement), Adbert and Kintzler for Archie Bradley? In the ballpark?


If we're dealing with the Dbacks I want Taylor Widener coming back some how.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:21 pm

Assuming we get Bryce I think there’s a decent chance we get an F the LT offseason. If that’s the case I’d like to see something like.....

Non-Tenders:
La Stella
Russell

Trades:
- Almora, Adbert and Kintzler for Archie Bradley

- Happ, Zack Short, prospect(s) and Chatwood to the Mariners for James Pazos and as much money as they are willing to pick up (this is not maximizing value on Happ but it’s clearing an awful contract and getting a good lefty back)

- Vic and maybe a not real prospect and Duensing for an A ball lottery ticket

FA signings:
- Bryce ($35 AAV for 8 to 12 years)
- Pick up Hamels Option
- McCutchen for 2/30ish
- 1 of Mercer, Galvis, Iglesias
- Maldonado for 1-2 years
- Chavez back for a cheap 1 year

Position Players (12):
C- Willy
1B- Rizzo
2B- Zobrist
SS- Baez
3B- Bryant
LF- Schwarber
CF- Heyward
RF- Bryce

Bench: Maldonado, Bote, McCutchen, 1 of Mercer/Galvis/Iglesias

Pitchers (13):
Lester
Hendricks
Darvish
Q
Hamels
Monty
Chavez
Morrow
Strop
Bradley
Carl
Cishek
Pazos


Depth: Smyly, Mills, Mekkes, Maples, Randy, Webster, Norwood, etc
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