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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:52 pm
by davell
I like Hamels a lot. But, you can't give him 20 mill, unless we're just A-OK blowing last the top end of the luxury tax. If we are, then keeping him in a one year commitment makes perfect sense, considering the control we've got over the rest of our rotation.

But, no one is going to give him a guaranteed 3 years based off 12 or however many starts he made for us, at his age.

If the Luxury Tax is a concern, you've gotta let him walk and add a different one year, depth option type. If we need more than that, I think we wait until the deadline to attack it.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:00 pm
by Backtobanks
Bote McBoteface wrote:I know theres no such thing as a lead-off hitter but i feel like the offense is missing a Fowler-type. I’d like to find one of those this offseason. If nothing else, it’ll stop Joe from putting one of middle of the order hitters at lead-off. Who is available?



We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:02 pm
by JudasIscariotTheBird
Backtobanks wrote:
Bote McBoteface wrote:I know theres no such thing as a lead-off hitter but i feel like the offense is missing a Fowler-type. I’d like to find one of those this offseason. If nothing else, it’ll stop Joe from putting one of middle of the order hitters at lead-off. Who is available?



We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters.

I'm fine with all-or-nothing. Its the nothing that we had too much of. Just give me more of the all. If you want more "clutch" contact, then sign Chili to a lifetime contract or something. Your take is horrible, if I didn't make it clear.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:14 pm
by jersey cubs fan
Backtobanks wrote:
Bote McBoteface wrote:I know theres no such thing as a lead-off hitter but i feel like the offense is missing a Fowler-type. I’d like to find one of those this offseason. If nothing else, it’ll stop Joe from putting one of middle of the order hitters at lead-off. Who is available?



We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters.

I'm tired of this constant complaint at the end of every Cubs season. A certain segment of the audience always claims the thing the Cubs need is fewer all or nothing hitters and more contact guys.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:14 pm
by Bertz
Hamels is pretty comfortably worth 1/20. IMO, but I don't expect him back. The team's payroll situation is too tight currently, and picking it up and trying to flip him could be too problematic for what would likely only be a moderate reward.

I expect one of Harper/Machado, and then a trade of Schwarber or Happ to net some pitching and/or payroll flexibility. If they swing and miss on the two big guys, I see a belt tightening kind of winter, where they try and improve the team's payroll situation going forward while only adding low cost/short commitment types to the big league club.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:31 pm
by Tim
Backtobanks wrote:
Bote McBoteface wrote:I know theres no such thing as a lead-off hitter but i feel like the offense is missing a Fowler-type. I’d like to find one of those this offseason. If nothing else, it’ll stop Joe from putting one of middle of the order hitters at lead-off. Who is available?



We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters.

We rated pretty well on strikeout rate this year. We scored fewer runs with a higher variance per game than last year when we were poor with the strikeout rate. What makes you think strikeouts are the problem?

Strikeout rate has a negative correlation with runs scored in MLB this year, but it is pretty small at -.235.

Home run rate has a correlation that is more than twice as strong at a positive .544

On Base percentage has a correlation of .907, which is really high. In fact, once again it ranks as the single biggest "causal" factor for runs scored.


HR 0.544443909
SB 0.195054943
BB% 0.445137019
K% -0.234992411
ISO 0.653393876
BABIP 0.513961878
AVG 0.731114957
OBP 0.907251889
SLG 0.865150567
wOBA 0.938307495
wRC+ 0.714276419
BsR 0.245655124

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:32 pm
by davell
jersey cubs fan wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Bote McBoteface wrote:I know theres no such thing as a lead-off hitter but i feel like the offense is missing a Fowler-type. I’d like to find one of those this offseason. If nothing else, it’ll stop Joe from putting one of middle of the order hitters at lead-off. Who is available?



We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters.

I'm tired of this constant complaint at the end of every Cubs season. A certain segment of the audience always claims the thing the Cubs need is fewer all or nothing hitters and more contact guys.


We need guys who can catch the ball.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:26 pm
by CaliforniaRaisin
Backtobanks wrote:
Bote McBoteface wrote:I know theres no such thing as a lead-off hitter but i feel like the offense is missing a Fowler-type. I’d like to find one of those this offseason. If nothing else, it’ll stop Joe from putting one of middle of the order hitters at lead-off. Who is available?



We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters.


You should have watched the 2018 season then if you didn't want guys swinging for the fences.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:29 pm
by Cubswin11
jersey cubs fan wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Bote McBoteface wrote:I know theres no such thing as a lead-off hitter but i feel like the offense is missing a Fowler-type. I’d like to find one of those this offseason. If nothing else, it’ll stop Joe from putting one of middle of the order hitters at lead-off. Who is available?



We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters.

I'm tired of this constant complaint at the end of every Cubs season. A certain segment of the audience always claims the thing the Cubs need is fewer all or nothing hitters and more contact guys.

It’s literally been the complaint of every team that made the playoffs and didn’t win the WS going back to 2008 (that’s the first real team I followed being online). Like literally every team had the same complaint/articles written.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:40 pm
by squally1313
Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:43 pm
by JudasIscariotTheBird
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

Most of this makes sense apart from Bote in the OF. If he isn't playing 3B or 2B, his value is close to nil. Bote is the guy you want as the backup infield guy, though I don't know what he'd be like at SS. Prob not good.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:45 pm
by squally1313
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

Most of this makes sense apart from Bote in the OF. If he isn't playing 3B or 2B, his value is close to nil. Bote is the guy you want as the backup infield guy, though I don't know what he'd be like at SS. Prob not good.

Good point, and I guess the easier solution is to just keep him as a solid third baseman, and send KB out to the corner outfield spots when needed. Bote isn't going to pass as the backup SS, but that should be an easy enough position to fill.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:45 pm
by big ball chunky time
toonsterwu wrote:I'm not against listening on Rizzo this off-season. I know, it sounds blasphemous and reactionary, but the idea's been percolating for awhile, particularly with Schwarber's bounce back season.

Now, the problem is, it's going to be awfully hard to construct a deal that makes sense for the Cubs. So, I'm not saying shop Rizzo.

All that said, I don't see them shopping him. I just would ... ponder it. The offense stalled late in the year, and I'd like to ideally change up the dynamic at the top of the lineup. I don't particularly love the juggling act lineups, somewhat out of necessity.


still laughing at this post

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:48 pm
by Cubswin11
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

This is pretty much my ideal offseason. Ultimately end up keeping everyone and bringing them back with Bryce, UTL IF (non-tender Tommy), a real backup C and maybe 1 pitcher addition either a SP (Hamels and bump Monty and Smyly to pen) or RP (Chavez, or any other of the the guys that won’t cost a ton but are good options since it’s a loaded class).

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:49 pm
by CubinNY
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

Most of this makes sense apart from Bote in the OF. If he isn't playing 3B or 2B, his value is close to nil. Bote is the guy you want as the backup infield guy, though I don't know what he'd be like at SS. Prob not good.

Bote's greatest value to the Cubs is as a trade chip. Unfortunately, there aren't many Jim Hendrys around anymore who would value him incorrectly.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:50 pm
by Cubswin11
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

Most of this makes sense apart from Bote in the OF. If he isn't playing 3B or 2B, his value is close to nil. Bote is the guy you want as the backup infield guy, though I don't know what he'd be like at SS. Prob not good.

He seems athletic enough to handle the OF and it would be nice if he could, especially when facing LHP. But yeah his defense is great at 3B so maybe KB goes to the OF there. I think Bote is athletic enough to handle the OF though, even some CF. He probably can be emergency SS but we don’t want him being the planned backup from day 1. Get Mercer or Escobar.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:53 pm
by squally1313
CubinNY wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

Most of this makes sense apart from Bote in the OF. If he isn't playing 3B or 2B, his value is close to nil. Bote is the guy you want as the backup infield guy, though I don't know what he'd be like at SS. Prob not good.

Bote's greatest value to the Cubs is as a trade chip. Unfortunately, there aren't many Jim Hendrys around anymore who would value him incorrectly.


Yeah David Bote will be 26 by the first week of next year, and finished with a 95 wRC+, which would place him 16th out of the 20 third basemen with enough PAs to qualify. I have no idea if his stellar defensive numbers are indicative of his actual ability there. Just from the eye test I remember a handful of great plays, and a couple bad ones. But I think his value is a league minimum backup who can put up league average production.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:20 pm
by Old Style
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

I like most of this but I'd rather trade Contreras and keep Caratini.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:23 pm
by squally1313
Old Style wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

I like most of this but I'd rather trade Contreras and keep Caratini.


Outside of like 'I think we could get a really good pitcher for Contreras'...no.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:32 pm
by Cubswin11
Old Style wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

I like most of this but I'd rather trade Contreras and keep Caratini.

What the hell? No, Caratini horsefeathering sucks

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:26 pm
by Old Style
squally1313 wrote:
Old Style wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Almora and Heyward is your center field platoon next year.

Sign Harper.

Spend a month trying to get Happ to play a Zobrist level second base, if not, he's pitching bait. If he can, he's valuable in a post-Zobrist era and can bounce around the field in 2018.

Get Bote to passable in the corner outfield positions, he becomes the bounce around guy (maybe even the platoon with Schwarber in left).

Sign some defense first backup catcher (Caratini to AAA or for a bullpen flier) and a backup shortstop/middle infield guy who can spell Zobrist a good amount and Baez for ten games.

Darvish covers up any regression from Lester, Hendricks and Q will be fine, tell Chatwood/Monty/Smyly they're competing for one spot.

I like most of this but I'd rather trade Contreras and keep Caratini.


Outside of like 'I think we could get a really good pitcher for Contreras'...no.

Yeah, I was thinking Contreras could net something of value. He was pretty atrocious at the plate in the 2nd half anyway and is not good at pitch framing.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:29 pm
by Cubswin11
Old Style wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Old Style wrote:I like most of this but I'd rather trade Contreras and keep Caratini.


Outside of like 'I think we could get a really good pitcher for Contreras'...no.

Yeah, I was thinking Contreras could net something of value. He was pretty atrocious at the plate in the 2nd half anyway and is not good at pitch framing.

Caratini has been atrocious at the plate his whole life and isn’t good at framing either

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:14 pm
by Cubswin11
I really like Jordy Mercer as the FA MIF target. It's not sexy, but he won't cost much and fills a need well. He handles SS fine and hits lefties well (which I think it's important because vs lefties Zobrist needs to go to the OF and Javy can switch to 2B). He was at 7%BB and 14%K vs lefties this year and slashed .286/.345/.410 and for his career he's at almost 9%BB and 13%K with a .294/.359/.453 slash line vs lefties. He doesn't hit righties well but we will need some RHB that handle lefties well with a LHB heavy roster.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:53 pm
by Bryant's Disco Ball
Not to go all Jim Hendry, but our offense was at its best and coolest when Dexter was our leadoff hitter. I'd like to find a cool leadoff hitter and also sign Harper.

Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:04 am
by TomtheBombadil
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Not to go all Jim Hendry, but our offense was at its best and coolest when Dexter was our leadoff hitter. I'd like to find a cool leadoff hitter and also sign Harper.


I’d rather leadoff Harper and land a cleanup hitter for behind Bryant and Rizzo.