The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:16 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Also Joe Kelly kinda sucks other than it’s cool he throws hard. He’s kinda like right handed Wilson. I’d rather have Chavez back for cheaper than him, honestly.


But Jesse Chavez has mostly sucked in the MLs too? Seems like tomato/tomahto to me, Kelly being cheaper and younger. With the offense I don’t want to pay nearly $10 million for some certainty in a middle/long relief role

Also think the gap between Realmuto and Contreras is getting downplayed. Realmuto’s a more much complete catcher who does his hitting in a much tougher ballpark.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:32 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Also Joe Kelly kinda sucks other than it’s cool he throws hard. He’s kinda like right handed Wilson. I’d rather have Chavez back for cheaper than him, honestly.


But Jesse Chavez has mostly sucked in the MLs too? Seems like tomato/tomahto to me, Kelly being cheaper and younger. With the offense I don’t want to pay nearly $10 million for some certainty in a middle/long relief role

Also think the gap between Realmuto and Contreras is getting downplayed. Realmuto’s a more much complete catcher who does his hitting in a much tougher ballpark.

Kelly won’t be cheaper in FA. I like what Chavez can bring to the team if he can be had on a cheap 1 year deal (multiple innings, throws strikes, different mix of stuff than Carl/Strop/Morrow from the righty options). I’m not going crazy to sign him back but I’d rather have Chavez than Kelly. Underlying point is, is if we’re spending real money of RPs this offseason (which I assume Kelly will cost and Chavez won’t) I’d aim higher than Kelly and get Ottavino.


I don’t think the gap between Contreras and Realmuto is all that much unless you think Willy is this permanent GB/weak contact guy offensively. As recently as last year Contreras was only .4 fWAR worse than Realmuto in ~30 less games. Factor in acquisition cost and salary of Realmuto (which means we likely don’t add or improve at another position) I think it’s largely just a marginal move of little consequence in making us better.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:47 pm

Sell off Duensing and Kintzler, save 8.5 mill. Give Hamels 2/32. With the rest of the roster, this likely has you 7 or so OVER the LT.....

Trade Russell and Montgomery for best pre arb reliever you can get. Saves the 7 mill you're over.

Trade Happ and Amaya for best cost controlled starter that it gets you. Price no more than 4-5 mill.

Give Bryce 36 per, for 12 years of whatever.

C Contreras, Caratini
1B Rizzo
2B Zobrist, Seal Boy
SS Baez
3B Bryant, Bote
LF Schwarber
CF Heyward, Almora
RF Bryce

Rotation- Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Chatwood, Smyly, cost controlled guy
Pen- Morrow, Edwards, Strop, Cishek, Rosario, cost controlled pen guy from trade, Norwood, Maples, Mills, Alzolay, Webster

That team puts you at the top end of the LT, with damn near no flexibility for in season moves.....

And there's still a need for at least one established pen guy. Plus, it'd be nice to get Rivera or some other defensive minded backup C.

So, let's say we put 10 mill into the pen guy or the pen guy, plus backup C..... You also know they'll want 5-10 mill for in season moves......

So, we'd need to cut 15-20 mill off this roster, to stay under the LT.....

Options.....
1) No Hamels. I want him back, but he IS older.....
2) pay big to unload Chatwood.
3) Trade off Zobrist

Alternative.....

Don't sign Bryce. Still get rid of Duensing and Kintzler. Sign Hamels for 2/32.

Still have 30 mill to play with..... And Russell, Almora, Happ, and Monty are still at your disposal.

Tons of options..... Pay up for a pen arm or two? With a FA starter?(unlikely) Still trade for your cost controlled starter? Likely. Go after Pollock? No idea.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:55 pm

I’d really like to keep Russell for the defense and depth. I’d try and use Almora to attach to Chatwood to move his salary (throw in Maples or something if you must), Duensing should be easyish to move (maybe a Rollie Lacy type gets it done or even Maples as mentioned above), pray that Kintzler thinks he can get a multi year deal and opts out, Tommy also probably shouldn’t be tendered a contract. Those are all the things I’d like to see. In terms of cost savings moves.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:55 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Kelly won’t be cheaper in FA. I like what Chavez can bring to the team if he can be had on a cheap 1 year deal (multiple innings, throws strikes, different mix of stuff than Carl/Strop/Morrow from the righty options). I’m not going crazy to sign him back but I’d rather have Chavez than Kelly.

I don’t think the gap between Contreras and Realmuto is all that much unless you think Willy is this permanent GB/weak contact guy offensively. As recently as last year Contreras was only .4 fWAR worse than Realmuto in ~30 less games. Factor in acquisition cost and salary of Realmuto (which means we likely don’t add or improve at another position) I think it’s largely just a marginal move of little consequence in making us better.


Oh wow, I didn’t realize Chavez only made $1.5 this year. Tomato/Tomahto go ahead with him over Kelly pretty easily

Realmuto’s been worth 11.5 fWAR over the past three years to Contreras’ 7.3. That’s not really accounting for better framing, plus he makes more contact and has an IsoSLG somewhere in the high .180s btwn ‘17-‘18 in a tougher park
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:06 pm

Unfortunately, Chavez has likely raised his profile some. I figure he's getting between 3-5 mill next year from someone. Will it be us? I hope so. But, I'd understand if they're gunshy on relievers that are coming off great seasons. Like their horsefeathers up on Duensing.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:08 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Kelly won’t be cheaper in FA. I like what Chavez can bring to the team if he can be had on a cheap 1 year deal (multiple innings, throws strikes, different mix of stuff than Carl/Strop/Morrow from the righty options). I’m not going crazy to sign him back but I’d rather have Chavez than Kelly.

I don’t think the gap between Contreras and Realmuto is all that much unless you think Willy is this permanent GB/weak contact guy offensively. As recently as last year Contreras was only .4 fWAR worse than Realmuto in ~30 less games. Factor in acquisition cost and salary of Realmuto (which means we likely don’t add or improve at another position) I think it’s largely just a marginal move of little consequence in making us better.


Oh wow, I didn’t realize Chavez only made $1.5 this year. Tomato/Tomahto go ahead with him over Kelly pretty easily

Realmuto’s been worth 11.5 fWAR over the past three years to Contreras’ 7.3. That’s not really accounting for better framing, plus he makes more contact and has an IsoSLG somewhere in the high .180s btwn ‘17-‘18 in a tougher park

Realmuto has had ~400 more PAs to put up that WAR. ~1,500 vs ~1,100 that doesn’t account for all of the margin but adjust 400 up or down to even it out and it’s closer. He might make more contact but Willy also walks a lot more, Willy also has a higher OPS, wOBA and wRC+ for his career. I just don’t see this being a clear upgrade, especially like I’ve said when you factor in the salary bump. Unless you really think Willson is the hitter he’s shown in the second half moving forward and this isn’t just a blip.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:14 pm

It's not a true question on who's even better between Realmuto and Willy. I'm sure Willy's D frustrates everyone here. Meaning his framing, he's obviously got a cannon. Offensively, I am much less certain of which of those two are better next year...... Still, none of this is the point......

The point is that Willy is still pre-arb next year, has 4 years of control left. JT has 2 years left and will be getting expensive this offseason. Excellent year, coming off 2.9 in 1st Year arb..... We disagree on the amount, but it's not even the most important thing...... That extra money goes towards Bryce most likely. May cost you a player or two, to get Bryce, that you wouldn't have had to move, if you had just kept Willy. Then, if JT has a good 2019, he's likely looking around 12-15 mill his last year and then he's getting paid even more.

Willy is just much more sensible.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:19 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Realmuto has had ~400 more PAs to put up that WAR. ~1,500 vs ~1,100 that doesn’t account for all of the margin but adjust 400 up or down to even it out and it’s closer. He might make more contact but Willy also walks a lot more, Willy also has a higher OPS, wOBA and wRC+ for his career. I just don’t see this being a clear upgrade, especially like I’ve said when you factor in the salary bump. Unless you really think Willson is the hitter he’s shown in the second half moving forward and this isn’t just a blip.


Is this really a knock when Contreras lost those PAs due to injuries and being enough of a liability defensively that the team had to hire a caddy for the aces?

Production wise it’s a very clear upgrade - you get more games, more defense, similar offense (but seemingly headed in opposite directions this year in Realmuto’s favor), not a world of difference in price tag once Contreras hits arb after next year....
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:22 pm

I remember looking up Realmuto's framing grades when he was tossed around as a pickup option, and I'm pretty sure it looked like he was barely an upgrade form Contreras in that regard. I know that's probably a terribly tracked metric, so someone feel free to show me I'm wrong.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:28 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I remember looking up Realmuto's framing grades when he was tossed around as a pickup option, and I'm pretty sure it looked like he was barely an upgrade form Contreras in that regard. I know that's probably a terribly tracked metric, so someone feel free to show me I'm wrong.


https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/s ... id=1899425

Realmuto at +2.5 framing runs to Contreras’ -14.5, +5 overall to Contreras’ -12.6
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:35 pm

I don't know how that works. This is what I was looking at before:

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

There's been a bit more separation between the two, but seemingly not much (if I'm looking at it right).
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:45 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I don't know how that works. This is what I was looking at before:

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

There's been a bit more separation between the two, but seemingly not much (if I'm looking at it right).


That one boils down Realmuto losing 165 calls in 10000+ opportunities to Contreras losing 147 in a little less than 7500. Realmuto also gets calls in the zone nearly 2% more than Contreras, which is about two pitches a start and say 250+ pitches a year...
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:51 pm

So Contreras would extrapolate out to, what, about 190 at the same point? Do the math for me, because I suck at it.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:05 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:So Contreras would extrapolate out to, what, about 190 at the same point? Do the math for me, because I suck at it.


Yeah 200 or so, losing most to balls balls in the zone from the looks of that page. It’s Sunday man

They’re about equal at stealing strikes so there’s that, but Contreras will lose more strikes to balls in the zone

Either way keep in mind that I also believe Realmuto is the better and safer bat now
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:07 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Realmuto has had ~400 more PAs to put up that WAR. ~1,500 vs ~1,100 that doesn’t account for all of the margin but adjust 400 up or down to even it out and it’s closer. He might make more contact but Willy also walks a lot more, Willy also has a higher OPS, wOBA and wRC+ for his career. I just don’t see this being a clear upgrade, especially like I’ve said when you factor in the salary bump. Unless you really think Willson is the hitter he’s shown in the second half moving forward and this isn’t just a blip.


Is this really a knock when Contreras lost those PAs due to injuries and being enough of a liability defensively that the team had to hire a caddy for the aces?

Production wise it’s a very clear upgrade - you get more games, more defense, similar offense (but seemingly headed in opposite directions this year in Realmuto’s favor), not a world of difference in price tag once Contreras hits arb after next year....

Well 3 years ago was 2016 when Montero and Ross were catching a lot and he didn't even start the year in the majors, he did get hurt last year but Montero was still around in the first half to soak up games before he was cut. I don't know how it's a clear upgrade production wise moving forward it's probably close with a slight edge to Realmuto.


And on the last part it is a world of difference in price tag because the next two years are huge years for us payroll wise (with or without Bryce) adding a few million more next year on a move that isn't all that clear of an upgrade isn't a luxury we have right now and over the nexttwo years the margin on their salary difference will be huge Realmuto's is going to make ~$15 million more than Willy the next 2 years.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:11 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Realmuto has had ~400 more PAs to put up that WAR. ~1,500 vs ~1,100 that doesn’t account for all of the margin but adjust 400 up or down to even it out and it’s closer. He might make more contact but Willy also walks a lot more, Willy also has a higher OPS, wOBA and wRC+ for his career. I just don’t see this being a clear upgrade, especially like I’ve said when you factor in the salary bump. Unless you really think Willson is the hitter he’s shown in the second half moving forward and this isn’t just a blip.


Is this really a knock when Contreras lost those PAs due to injuries and being enough of a liability defensively that the team had to hire a caddy for the aces?

Production wise it’s a very clear upgrade - you get more games, more defense, similar offense (but seemingly headed in opposite directions this year in Realmuto’s favor), not a world of difference in price tag once Contreras hits arb after next year....


You're literally using 2016 as part of your argument. A season in which Willy was in the minors until June 17th. That's probably 250 or those PA right there. Plus, Joe absolutely would rest Realmuto in the same way he rests Willy.

And when Contreras hits arb, it'll be Realmuto's LAST year of arb. Then you're paying him even more, as a FA. The gap is going to widen, not close up.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:35 am

davell wrote:You're literally using 2016 as part of your argument. A season in which Willy was in the minors until June 17th. That's probably 250 or those PA right there. Plus, Joe absolutely would rest Realmuto in the same way he rests Willy.

And when Contreras hits arb, it'll be Realmuto's LAST year of arb. Then you're paying him even more, as a FA. The gap is going to widen, not close up.


1 - It’s not a knock that Realmuto was in the majors during all of 2016 and Contreras wasn’t. We’re still talking 7.8 fWAR to 6.1 fWAR between ‘17-‘18 with Realmuto the better all around defender in both years.

3. Is rest going to hurt Realmuto? He makes more contact, hits the ball harder and further, plus plays better defense on a pitch to pitch basis.

4. Between Chavez, Wilson, Murphy, Wilson, and Bass we’re looking at ~$11 million coming off. Realmuto and Stroman together are maybe $13-14 million. Between the LaStellas, Rosarios, Farrells, Hancocks, Mills, and so on there’s not $2-3 million to free up?...In 2020 Zobrist and Cishek alone will free nearly $20 million...No need to pinch pennies on talent!
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tim » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:44 am

Framing numbers are a really inexact science and have a huge amount of variance from year to year (are not that predictive). I'm not at all certain they have been able to separate out the catcher impact vs pitcher. For example, when Chatwood is constantly out of the zone, is it harder to get strikes called for any catcher? For example, in 2016, Willson was far better than Realmuto based on BP's data. For me, if this were a true measurement of a real skill, there would be a higher degree of auto-correlation from year to year. Heck, Welington Castillo was top 10 in baseball last year. He was bottom 10 in 2016. He's bottom 15 again this year. Is he a good framer or no? Did he learn the skill last year and then forget it this year?

It's an interesting data point, but not consistent enough to be a determining factor for me.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tim » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:46 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Between the Rosarios, Farrells, Hancocks, Mills, and so on there’s not $2-3 million to free up?

You know we need to keep ~40 on the 40 man roster, right? how will replacing minimum cost players with other minimum cost players help?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:50 am

To repeat. This has nothing to do with who is actually better. The only point that matters is that the monetary discrepancy between the two is a huge issue in any scenario where we're pursuing Bryce Harper and every dollar towards the high end of the LT matters.

I do find it odd though, that in your scenario of how we're acquiring guys..... You've got us acquiring Realmuto for an Almora led package, when Robles wasn't enough to get it done in reality.

All of this is a completely moot point, because we have much larger needs than at C and it's the height of stupidity to waste ours on that, when there's better ways to use them up out there.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:12 am

davell wrote:To repeat. This has nothing to do with who is actually better. The only point that matters is that the monetary discrepancy between the two is a huge issue in any scenario where we're pursuing Bryce Harper and every dollar towards the high end of the LT matters.

I do find it odd though, that in your scenario of how we're acquiring guys..... You've got us acquiring Realmuto for an Almora led package, when Robles wasn't enough to get it done in reality.

All of this is a completely moot point, because we have much larger needs than at C and it's the height of stupidity to waste ours on that, when there's better ways to use them up out there.


Yeah, this is such a Tom thing to do: just get completely hung up on a totally unnecessary hypothetical move hinged on a player who MIGHT be enough of an upgrade to justify the cost.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:28 am

davell wrote:To repeat. This has nothing to do with who is actually better. The only point that matters is that the monetary discrepancy between the two is a huge issue in any scenario where we're pursuing Bryce Harper and every dollar towards the high end of the LT matters.

I do find it odd though, that in your scenario of how we're acquiring guys..... You've got us acquiring Realmuto for an Almora led package, when Robles wasn't enough to get it done in reality.

All of this is a completely moot point, because we have much larger needs than at C and it's the height of stupidity to waste ours on that, when there's better ways to use them up out there.


Robles keeps choosing to run into walls every year, Realmuto lost a year a service time since then...Almora, Montgomery, Caratini (in which case go grab one of the many floating backup Cs for cheap, which they should do anyway), Mills, and Marquez for Realmuto and Conley

Doesn’t that offseason cover the needs? Harper, first division SP, more reliever depth, better lineup, better bench...We’re quibbling about potentially being a couple million over the LT for a year to acquire Harper, Realmuto, and Stroman in one offseason when natural FA losses will cover both those guys’ ‘19 and ‘20 salaries
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:37 am

Maybe the money makes most sense with a Russell and Montgomery for Realmuto trade? Go out and sign a non-tender If glove like Iglesias or Heccavaria after that
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:51 am

Regular Show wrote:
davell wrote:Giles peripherals are solid. Hes not a bad contract. And if he WAS, they'd non tender him anyway. Now Chatwood, on the other hand, has 2/25.5 left on his deal. In all honesty, if he's a FA, what's he getting from a team? 1/4 was my honest guess. But, an incentive laden minor league deal is a legit possibility. Plenty of low end options out there, that are cheap. No reason why anyone needs to pay up for him. Don't see us trading him at the absolute lowest his value could get.


Are you guys talking about Ken Giles? The idiot with seriously bad makeup concerns? horsefeathers no, we're not trading for that loser...



Just move on guys. Theo and Jed aren't making a trade for him lol.


now if he'd punched a woman instead of himself, they might consider it
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