The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:32 pm

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Bertz wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:For someone with the inclination to figure it out, which of these catchers with a decent RAA are FA this year?

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php


Looks like Mathis(1), Grandal(2), and Maldonado(8). Austin Hedges(10), could probably be had in trade without it being painful.

Also. I find it funny that Alex Avila is on the positive side of the ledger, after being horrific last year. I think this stuff is generally directionally correct, but IMO the magnitude is probably ~half of what the numbers say.


It's helpful to look at multiple years too, occasionally you have big swings and looking at a longer time horizon helps shape the reality of what you're seeing.

I mentioned them in my original post, but Mathis and Maldonado are both consistently very strong framers so they can at least satisfy that end, because they are both abominable hitters.

In my initial FA looks the last few weeks I completely forgot about Maldonado. Doing to look at it today I think he’s really clearly my #1 target for the role if they look to upgrade. I like him a ton for the role.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:33 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Not to derail the catcher talk, because it’s a good conversation. But the Rockies left Gray off the playoff roster and dicked around with him this year, if he’s healthy and they soured on him I hope we are all over him. Happ++ for him would be ideal, could even see a scenario where him for Q and some other stuff either or both ways makes sense.

The Rockies are really dumb too, maybe we could convince them or they already connived themselves Almora is DJ Wittenmyer 2.0 and that's all it would roughly take for Gray.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Brian » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:36 pm

I don't think we should be putting ourselves in the position where the Cubs are going to fix a Rockies pitcher
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Tim » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:43 pm

Brian wrote:I don't think we should be putting ourselves in the position where the Cubs are going to fix a Rockies pitcher

The nice thing is that Gray really doesn't need to be fixed. His stat line screams outlier luck on ERA.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:53 pm

Tim wrote:
Brian wrote:I don't think we should be putting ourselves in the position where the Cubs are going to fix a Rockies pitcher

The nice thing is that Gray really doesn't need to be fixed. His stat line screams outlier luck on ERA.

Yeah there isn’t really fixing. He never had a Chatwood walk problem, he’s put up a legitimately good season without having to squint at the peripherals or underlying things to see it (like spin rates, road starts, etc). I also want to say this year, in terms of the era, their horsefeathers bullpen allowed a ton of his runs to score. I thought I remember hearing that when they sent him down and he had a sub 3 FIP/xFIP and nobody could figure out why they did that.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:59 pm

if gray is actually on the market i gotta assume someone else would offer more than we would. i guess maybe happ+ gets you there? they have too many OF but if they think he could play second and replace DJ (can't spell his last name so he's just DJ)
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:02 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:if gray is actually on the market i gotta assume someone else would offer more than we would. i guess maybe happ+ gets you there? they have too many OF but if they think he could play second and replace DJ (can't spell his last name so he's just DJ)

Matt Holiday And Carlos Gonzalez are staring in their OF, do they really have too many OF’ers?? They have Brendan Rodgers coming up within the next 1.5 years for the IF (him or Story will shift to 2B). But he could be an option there for a year too.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:06 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:if gray is actually on the market i gotta assume someone else would offer more than we would. i guess maybe happ+ gets you there? they have too many OF but if they think he could play second and replace DJ (can't spell his last name so he's just DJ)

Matt Holiday And Carlos Gonzalez are staring in their OF, do they really have too many OF’ers?? They have Brendan Rodgers coming up within the next 1.5 years for the IF (him or Story will shift to 2B). But he could be an option there for a year too.


Blackmon, Tapia, Dahl, even though they seem to hate tapia. Maybe we could get him back in the deal too, he'd be an interesting 4th or 5th guy if he can field at all.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:09 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:if gray is actually on the market i gotta assume someone else would offer more than we would. i guess maybe happ+ gets you there? they have too many OF but if they think he could play second and replace DJ (can't spell his last name so he's just DJ)

Matt Holiday And Carlos Gonzalez are staring in their OF, do they really have too many OF’ers?? They have Brendan Rodgers coming up within the next 1.5 years for the IF (him or Story will shift to 2B). But he could be an option there for a year too.


That definitely would've been the case before this year, they had Gonzalez, Dahl, Blackmon, Parra, and Tapia. But now, Blackmon and Cargo are free agents, Parra's bat fell off, and Tapia increasingly looks like a AAAA player. If there's one thing that the Rockies can probably manufacture without paying through the nose it's corner OF production, but Happ would definitely have a spot there.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:12 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:if gray is actually on the market i gotta assume someone else would offer more than we would. i guess maybe happ+ gets you there? they have too many OF but if they think he could play second and replace DJ (can't spell his last name so he's just DJ)

Matt Holiday And Carlos Gonzalez are staring in their OF, do they really have too many OF’ers?? They have Brendan Rodgers coming up within the next 1.5 years for the IF (him or Story will shift to 2B). But he could be an option there for a year too.


That definitely would've been the case before this year, they had Gonzalez, Dahl, Blackmon, Parra, and Tapia. But now, Blackmon and Cargo are free agents, Parra's bat fell off, and Tapia increasingly looks like a AAAA player. If there's one thing that the Rockies can probably manufacture without paying through the nose it's corner OF production, but Happ would definitely have a spot there.

They extended Blackmon early in the year. He got a 9 figure deal. But I think they definitely need some OF help in the offseason, for reasons/guys you mentioned above.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:54 pm

I am extremely interested in Tapia and Gray. Do that, please! Tapia’s not like a superstud or anything but easily could work on the bench. Gray’s a huge talent, exactly what we should be chasing this offseason
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:57 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I am extremely interested in Tapia and Gray. Do that, please! Tapia’s not like a superstud or anything but easily could work on the bench. Gray’s a huge talent, exactly what we should be chasing this offseason

Tapia looks like left handed Almora a little without the defense. What’s there to like?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:09 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Tapia looks like left handed Almora a little without the defense. What’s there to like?


For me someone that isn’t Almora works lol, but you can then trade either. Plus focus on the much more worthwhile haul that is Gray
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Tim » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:33 am

Coming at it from a different point of view, the Cubs could probably just pick up options and win 93+ games again next year. They have too many people for the roster as is.

Position Players: 12

Contreras/Caratini
Rizzo
Zobrist/LaStella
Bryant/Bote
Baez
Schwarber/Happ
Almora
Heyward

Starting Pitchers: 8

Lester / Darvish / Hendricks / Hamels / Quintana / Chatwood / Monty / Smyly

Relievers: 7

Morrow / Strop / Edwards / Cishek / Kintzler / Duensing / Mills

That's already 27 guys that either won't or can't be sent to Iowa. Now, the roster is only at 24 if Kintzler, Duensing and Chatwood are fired into the sun. But it's quite possible there won't be a large quantity of moves this offseason. Bring in Bryce. Add a higher quality reliever. Possibly free up a spot by trading one of Schwarber/Happ/Almora to get the reliever.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Bertz » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:22 am

Speaking of the Rockies, Ian Desmond is an option I like in a bad contract swap. He would fill our backup SS role. and is still useful against lefties. More relevantly. he's due $40 million the next three years, with a cap hit of $14m per year. Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler are due 34 over the next two, including a cap hit of $21.1 this year. That cap space would be hugely valuable this winter, especially if the Rockies send along a little extra money to balance out the total outlays.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:26 am

Bertz wrote:Speaking of the Rockies, Ian Desmond is an option I like in a bad contract swap. He would fill our backup SS role. and is still useful against lefties. More relevantly. he's due $40 million the next three years, with a cap hit of $14m per year. Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler are due 34 over the next two, including a cap hit of $21.1 this year. That cap space would be hugely valuable this winter, especially if the Rockies send along a little extra money to balance out the total outlays.

Desmond was never good at SS and hasn’t played meaningful innings there in 3 years and he’s been a negative WAR player 2 straight years. Bote is a better backup SS option than him.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby UK » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:35 am

Tim wrote:Coming at it from a different point of view, the Cubs could probably just pick up options and win 93+ games again next year. They have too many people for the roster as is.

Position Players: 12

Contreras/Caratini
Rizzo
Zobrist/LaStella
Bryant/Bote
Baez
Schwarber/Happ
Almora
Heyward

Starting Pitchers: 8

Lester / Darvish / Hendricks / Hamels / Quintana / Chatwood / Monty / Smyly

Relievers: 7

Morrow / Strop / Edwards / Cishek / Kintzler / Duensing / Mills

That's already 27 guys that either won't or can't be sent to Iowa. Now, the roster is only at 24 if Kintzler, Duensing and Chatwood are fired into the sun. But it's quite possible there won't be a large quantity of moves this offseason. Bring in Bryce. Add a higher quality reliever. Possibly free up a spot by trading one of Schwarber/Happ/Almora to get the reliever.


Tim....

Heyward, Chatwood, and Montgomery for Cueto (out for 2019 TJS), Melancon, and Watson?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby dfnowak » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:53 am

Saw that Garrett Richards will be a FA. I know he’s been hurt the past 3 years and had TJ surgery this year, but he has really good stuff. Anyone like the idea of the Cubs taking a flier on him and grooming him for the bullpen? He has really good stuff, but not sure when he’d be back from rehab.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Tim » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:58 am

UK wrote:
Tim wrote:Coming at it from a different point of view, the Cubs could probably just pick up options and win 93+ games again next year. They have too many people for the roster as is.

Position Players: 12

Contreras/Caratini
Rizzo
Zobrist/LaStella
Bryant/Bote
Baez
Schwarber/Happ
Almora
Heyward

Starting Pitchers: 8

Lester / Darvish / Hendricks / Hamels / Quintana / Chatwood / Monty / Smyly

Relievers: 7

Morrow / Strop / Edwards / Cishek / Kintzler / Duensing / Mills

That's already 27 guys that either won't or can't be sent to Iowa. Now, the roster is only at 24 if Kintzler, Duensing and Chatwood are fired into the sun. But it's quite possible there won't be a large quantity of moves this offseason. Bring in Bryce. Add a higher quality reliever. Possibly free up a spot by trading one of Schwarber/Happ/Almora to get the reliever.


Tim....

Heyward, Chatwood, and Montgomery for Cueto (out for 2019 TJS), Melancon, and Watson?

Yes? Maybe?

Chatwood & Melancon basically cancel out.
Monty & Watson swap places with Watson giving us more of a pure pen lefty and SF more of a starter.

Which leaves Heyward & Cueto. Cueto is guaranteed to provide no value next year and is no great bet at all when he returns from surgery at 34. Heyward's contract is longer, but the annual cost is similar and Cueto is somehow a worse bet than Heyward.

I guess I'd do it. If SF could fix Chatwood, they'd win the deal. But it would also mean we'd need a CF next year unless people trust a Happ/Almora platoon.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby UK » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:03 am

Tim wrote:
UK wrote:
Tim wrote:Coming at it from a different point of view, the Cubs could probably just pick up options and win 93+ games again next year. They have too many people for the roster as is.

Position Players: 12

Contreras/Caratini
Rizzo
Zobrist/LaStella
Bryant/Bote
Baez
Schwarber/Happ
Almora
Heyward

Starting Pitchers: 8

Lester / Darvish / Hendricks / Hamels / Quintana / Chatwood / Monty / Smyly

Relievers: 7

Morrow / Strop / Edwards / Cishek / Kintzler / Duensing / Mills

That's already 27 guys that either won't or can't be sent to Iowa. Now, the roster is only at 24 if Kintzler, Duensing and Chatwood are fired into the sun. But it's quite possible there won't be a large quantity of moves this offseason. Bring in Bryce. Add a higher quality reliever. Possibly free up a spot by trading one of Schwarber/Happ/Almora to get the reliever.


Tim....

Heyward, Chatwood, and Montgomery for Cueto (out for 2019 TJS), Melancon, and Watson?

Yes? Maybe?

Chatwood & Melancon basically cancel out.
Monty & Watson swap places with Watson giving us more of a pure pen lefty and SF more of a starter.

Which leaves Heyward & Cueto. Cueto is guaranteed to provide no value next year and is no great bet at all when he returns from surgery at 34. Heyward's contract is longer, but the annual cost is similar and Cueto is somehow a worse bet than Heyward.

I guess I'd do it. If SF could fix Chatwood, they'd win the deal. But it would also mean we'd need a CF next year unless people trust a Happ/Almora platoon.


I was on the fence on it too, it's one of those odd deals that isn't one-sided currently but so many x-factors to delve into that future predicting is obscured by team needs. (SF needs an athletic OF in RF with gap to gap power, Cubs need BP help, SF needs a starter for '19 etc).
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Bear Cub » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:09 am

If Theo can get someone to take Chatwalk, he should be sent to the HOF immediately. Aint going to happen. Cubs are stuck with him, unless they just eat the last two years of his contract!
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:49 am

Tim wrote:Coming at it from a different point of view, the Cubs could probably just pick up options and win 93+ games again next year. They have too many people for the roster as is.

Position Players: 12

Contreras/Caratini
Rizzo
Zobrist/LaStella
Bryant/Bote
Baez
Schwarber/Happ
Almora
Heyward

Starting Pitchers: 8

Lester / Darvish / Hendricks / Hamels / Quintana / Chatwood / Monty / Smyly

Relievers: 7

Morrow / Strop / Edwards / Cishek / Kintzler / Duensing / Mills

That's already 27 guys that either won't or can't be sent to Iowa. Now, the roster is only at 24 if Kintzler, Duensing and Chatwood are fired into the sun. But it's quite possible there won't be a large quantity of moves this offseason. Bring in Bryce. Add a higher quality reliever. Possibly free up a spot by trading one of Schwarber/Happ/Almora to get the reliever.



The real problem with the offseason is knowing what to expect from Bryant & Darvish. Do they both come back as all-star quality players or middle- of-the-road players? As you stated, we certainly should be competitive and reassess at the trade deadline.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Bertz » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:21 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:Speaking of the Rockies, Ian Desmond is an option I like in a bad contract swap. He would fill our backup SS role. and is still useful against lefties. More relevantly. he's due $40 million the next three years, with a cap hit of $14m per year. Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler are due 34 over the next two, including a cap hit of $21.1 this year. That cap space would be hugely valuable this winter, especially if the Rockies send along a little extra money to balance out the total outlays.

Desmond was never good at SS and hasn’t played meaningful innings there in 3 years and he’s been a negative WAR player 2 straight years. Bote is a better backup SS option than him.


That's fair (also, I forgot his year in Texas so I thought he'd been a SS more recently). I'm a little bullish on him, but overall it's more of an accounting exercise than a trade, much like the Dodgers/Braves deal last year. Some money needs to be shifted around if we want to do anything in addition to Bryce this winter.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby gflore34 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:02 pm

Bear Cub wrote:If Theo can get someone to take Chatwalk, he should be sent to the HOF immediately. Aint going to happen. Cubs are stuck with him, unless they just eat the last two years of his contract!


As you alluded to the Cubs are stuck with him, relative to his statistics he was historically bad last this season. Wouldn't be surprised if bounces back with at least an average season, for him, which would a marked improvement. Darvish, Chatwood and Morrow all blew up this season, I think its a pretty safe bet one of them will have a good 2019.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Regular Show » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:24 pm

Brian wrote:I don't think we should be putting ourselves in the position where the Cubs are going to fix a Rockies pitcher


So Chatwood is screwed then huh?
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