The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Banedon » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:38 pm

Playing some devil's advocate...

The Cubs philosophy since Theo took over has been to develop position players, and to pay for pitching. I wonder if they decided they had to keep doing that? Trust that the guys on the offense that have struggled can play up to their potential, and continue to pay for pitching because you don't have home grown pitching that's trustworthy?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:44 pm

Banedon wrote:Playing some devil's advocate...

The Cubs philosophy since Theo took over has been to develop position players, and to pay for pitching. I wonder if they decided they had to keep doing that? Trust that the guys on the offense that have struggled can play up to their potential, and continue to pay for pitching because you don't have home grown pitching that's trustworthy?


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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby The_Achiever » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:46 pm

They paid large money for Heyward and Zobwrist.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:47 pm

Banedon wrote:Playing some devil's advocate...

The Cubs philosophy since Theo took over has been to develop position players, and to pay for pitching. I wonder if they decided they had to keep doing that? Trust that the guys on the offense that have struggled can play up to their potential, and continue to pay for pitching because you don't have home grown pitching that's trustworthy?


Heyward, Fowler, and Zobrist are a reasonable counter-argument. For 2019 and 2020 they have more pitching that can potentially help the big league team than bats, too.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Hunter » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:52 pm

I have to think this is all some ploy. Like TT said, signing Hamels would make no sense if we were money crunched. We obviously would need to move 1-2 outfielders to make room for Harper. Heyward will be really hard to move, and would be even harder to move if someone thought we were going for Harper. Maybe its easier to signal we overspent and need to reduce payroll some than look like big spenders with money burning a hole in their wallet.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:55 pm

Again, the Cubs aren't poor. But there is a huge difference between making two moves to essentially pay Cole Hamels $13 million for one year and signing somebody for $400 million plus over 14.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:02 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Again, the Cubs aren't poor. But there is a huge difference between making two moves to essentially pay Cole Hamels $13 million for one year and signing somebody for $400 million plus over 14.


"somebody"

And that difference is more or less inconsequential unless you think Harper is bad(no) or that MLB and the Cubs in particular are going to see a huge reversal in their revenue. The avenues to effectively use money to improve your team are getting narrower every year, the idea that the 2027 Cubs might be disadvantaged by having Bryce Harper take up a smaller percentage of the payroll than he does today is not a compelling argument.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby toonsterwu » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:09 pm

It feels like Boras is setting the starting point at 14 years/500 million, with all the talk of playing till 40 and Zack Greinke's AAV. If that's the case, I really only see one team jumping anywhere near that, and that's Philadelphia.

As for the Cubs, I tend to think it's all talk at this point in time. I don't think Theo wants anything to do with 14/500, if that's the case, and I can't exactly blame him for that. Those are huge numbers, and one would assume if there is an early opt out that the pre-opt out AAV's would be level, or higher. Still, one has to remember that Theo's ideal situation is internal development. He talked so wistfully for awhile about wondering what those Red Sox teams would have looked like had he kept some of the kids, like Reddick, around. It's not hard to imagine Theo and Co. talking themselves into the idea that, from a cost-benefit assessment, they might buy the idea that their kids, when factoring in costs, could be more worthwhile if they really buy into them.

I suspect, though, it's all talk at this juncture, with the hopes that some of the top end numbers get dragged down a bit. Akin to how they went about Darvish last year, sorta. Try and fill enough holes (as was the hope with Chatwood) that you aren't forced to break the bank, while hoping that the price comes down enough to facilitate some sort of move, or has given you enough time to make moves to clear salary.

___

A lot probably depends on the Yankees, as always. If they really pull off a Machado move, as many seem to suspect right now, and Philly is desperate for a star acquisition, Harper may get an offer he can't refuse. It's hard to see the Yankees sitting pat this offseason, and the predictions of a Machado/Corbin double dip make a ton of sense for them. Still, the Nationals have set the bar already, by going to 300 million and a 30 mil AAV, so it's not hard to see them bridging the gap somehow, and I tend to think the Nationals probably are still the favorites for Harper. I mean, while it's a lot, a 30 mil to 35 mil AAV jump isn't that big, so it would come down to years and creative financing, and the Nationals clearly are okay with creative ways to fit things in (namely deferrals). I still think, for all the talk about 14 years and total numbers, the amount before whatever opt-out year they decide on will be most critical.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:21 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Again, the Cubs aren't poor. But there is a huge difference between making two moves to essentially pay Cole Hamels $13 million for one year and signing somebody for $400 million plus over 14.


"somebody"

And that difference is more or less inconsequential unless you think Harper is bad(no) or that MLB and the Cubs in particular are going to see a huge reversal in their revenue. The avenues to effectively use money to improve your team are getting narrower every year, the idea that the 2027 Cubs might be disadvantaged by having Bryce Harper take up a smaller percentage of the payroll than he does today is not a compelling argument.


Not the 2027 Cubs even. Try the Cubs in three years when they hope to sign Bryant and maybe Baez and others and they have $80 million wrapped up in three players already. Sure, I suppose they can worry about that then.

I've said this before and I'll say it again: If the Cubs want to be like the Yankees and have an enormous payroll and not care what they spend, go bonkers. I'd love it. But until they show that, you have to pick and choose. I'd have waited to sign Harper and not gone after Yu Darvish last season, knowing that they aren't going to be willing to sign everybody.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:29 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Again, the Cubs aren't poor. But there is a huge difference between making two moves to essentially pay Cole Hamels $13 million for one year and signing somebody for $400 million plus over 14.


"somebody"

And that difference is more or less inconsequential unless you think Harper is bad(no) or that MLB and the Cubs in particular are going to see a huge reversal in their revenue. The avenues to effectively use money to improve your team are getting narrower every year, the idea that the 2027 Cubs might be disadvantaged by having Bryce Harper take up a smaller percentage of the payroll than he does today is not a compelling argument.


Not the 2027 Cubs even. Try the Cubs in three years when they hope to sign Bryant and maybe Baez and others and they have $80 million wrapped up in three players already. Sure, I suppose they can worry about that then.


3 years from now you're talking about essentially a different franchise. Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Lester, Zobrist, Hendricks, Schwarber, Montgomery, Quintana, the whole bullpen sans Edwards, all at free agency. If anything Harper extends your window of competitiveness by having a star caliber player to build around instead of completely starting from scratch and spending your money on worse players than Harper anyway.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:31 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
"somebody"

And that difference is more or less inconsequential unless you think Harper is bad(no) or that MLB and the Cubs in particular are going to see a huge reversal in their revenue. The avenues to effectively use money to improve your team are getting narrower every year, the idea that the 2027 Cubs might be disadvantaged by having Bryce Harper take up a smaller percentage of the payroll than he does today is not a compelling argument.


Not the 2027 Cubs even. Try the Cubs in three years when they hope to sign Bryant and maybe Baez and others and they have $80 million wrapped up in three players already. Sure, I suppose they can worry about that then.


3 years from now you're talking about essentially a different franchise. Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Lester, Zobrist, Hendricks, Schwarber, Montgomery, Quintana, the whole bullpen sans Edwards, all at free agency. If anything Harper extends your window of competitiveness by having a star caliber player to build around instead of completely starting from scratch and spending your money on worse players than Harper anyway.


Great. Sounds like we'd be the Angels, just not quite as good.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby David » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:34 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Not the 2027 Cubs even. Try the Cubs in three years when they hope to sign Bryant and maybe Baez and others and they have $80 million wrapped up in three players already. Sure, I suppose they can worry about that then.


3 years from now you're talking about essentially a different franchise. Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Lester, Zobrist, Hendricks, Schwarber, Montgomery, Quintana, the whole bullpen sans Edwards, all at free agency. If anything Harper extends your window of competitiveness by having a star caliber player to build around instead of completely starting from scratch and spending your money on worse players than Harper anyway.


Great. Sounds like we'd be the Angels, just not quite as good.


what the hell are you talking about? jesus
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:36 pm

David wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
3 years from now you're talking about essentially a different franchise. Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Lester, Zobrist, Hendricks, Schwarber, Montgomery, Quintana, the whole bullpen sans Edwards, all at free agency. If anything Harper extends your window of competitiveness by having a star caliber player to build around instead of completely starting from scratch and spending your money on worse players than Harper anyway.


Great. Sounds like we'd be the Angels, just not quite as good.


what the hell are you talking about? jesus


Meaning, we'd be starting from scratch with Bryce Harper. And that's like the Angels with Mike Trout and nothing else.

You douche.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:00 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:There is a part of me that enjoys trying to brainstorm how to optimize the roster given constraints, team building has always been a fun puzzle in that way for me. The Dodgers especially have shown the benefit of not being slave to free agency to find really good production(Turner, Muncy, Hill, etc).

That said, even if I'm in that brain, and I promise to not beat this drum for a month, I have a hard time understanding why you bring back Hamels if you're stifled financially. If you successfully bring in Harper(and it's easy to do at the 246 mark without Hamels' contract), then the remaining spots on the roster needing filled(pre-Hamels) are *prime candidates* for the type of outside the box thinking that you'd need for upgrading on the cheap. 5th/6th starter, bullpen arms, backup C, an infielder to play SS, etc. I mean, it's cherry picking, but Anibal Sanchez, Jeremy Hellickson, and old pal Trevor Cahill were league average starters for a combined 4 million and change. Erik Kratz was a minor league signing last offseason, outside of Cozart getting signed to play 3B no SS made 3 million in free agency last year, and we all know how good relievers come and go like the wind regardless of their origin. Harper's productivity gives you the most cost certainty if you're dealing with a limited budget, and he also more easily enables you to make a trade of Happ/Almora too, unlike if you're taking a gamble on Timmy Waiverclaim where you'd like the depth.

That's what gets me about the crying poor stuff. If it's true, then you very clearly shouldn't have paid Hamels! So either it's not true, or the front office made a huge blunder on day 1 by means of not optimizing the roster and/or way overestimating Hamels. I'm continuing to think it's the former, at least to the degree that they didn't shoot themselves in the foot on the Harper front and they simply want any Harper suitor to be willing to take on their salary dumps without seeing them as a threat for him. If it's the latter I'll be as upset with the front office as I've been their entire tenure.


Maybe Theo understands that our rotation may not be as deep as people think without Hamels. Will Darvish come back as a TOR starter? Will Quintana be more than adequate? How much longer will Lester be as effective as he has been? Meanwhile, we want to slightly improve our good offense by paying a king's ransom to one player.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:01 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Not the 2027 Cubs even. Try the Cubs in three years when they hope to sign Bryant and maybe Baez and others and they have $80 million wrapped up in three players already. Sure, I suppose they can worry about that then.


3 years from now you're talking about essentially a different franchise. Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Lester, Zobrist, Hendricks, Schwarber, Montgomery, Quintana, the whole bullpen sans Edwards, all at free agency. If anything Harper extends your window of competitiveness by having a star caliber player to build around instead of completely starting from scratch and spending your money on worse players than Harper anyway.


Great. Sounds like we'd be the Angels, just not quite as good.


If we use this logic then without Harper they're what, the Orioles?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:06 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
3 years from now you're talking about essentially a different franchise. Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Lester, Zobrist, Hendricks, Schwarber, Montgomery, Quintana, the whole bullpen sans Edwards, all at free agency. If anything Harper extends your window of competitiveness by having a star caliber player to build around instead of completely starting from scratch and spending your money on worse players than Harper anyway.


Great. Sounds like we'd be the Angels, just not quite as good.


If we use this logic then without Harper they're what, the Orioles?


No, I'd hope we would have used it to sign our own core guys like Bryant. And if guys like him have flamed out, I guess worst case scenario we have to use the money on the top free agents three years from now.

Look, I want Bryce Harper. I'd love Bryce Harper. Is PTR willing to do it?
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:30 pm

toonsterwu wrote:It feels like Boras is setting the starting point at 14 years/500 million, with all the talk of playing till 40 and Zack Greinke's AAV. If that's the case, I really only see one team jumping anywhere near that, and that's Philadelphia.


It doesn't matter what it's "set at." It could be 25/900. The thing is going to have so many opt outs that the length of the contract is meaningless.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:10 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:It feels like Boras is setting the starting point at 14 years/500 million, with all the talk of playing till 40 and Zack Greinke's AAV. If that's the case, I really only see one team jumping anywhere near that, and that's Philadelphia.


It doesn't matter what it's "set at." It could be 25/900. The thing is going to have so many opt outs that the length of the contract is meaningless.


That's still *really* not how opt-outs work.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:13 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:It feels like Boras is setting the starting point at 14 years/500 million, with all the talk of playing till 40 and Zack Greinke's AAV. If that's the case, I really only see one team jumping anywhere near that, and that's Philadelphia.


It doesn't matter what it's "set at." It could be 25/900. The thing is going to have so many opt outs that the length of the contract is meaningless.


That's still *really* not how opt-outs work.


we're all aware of your wrong opinion of how opt-outs work, you don't need to bring it up every time it's mentioned
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:18 pm

toonsterwu wrote:I suspect, though, it's all talk at this juncture, with the hopes that some of the top end numbers get dragged down a bit. Akin to how they went about Darvish last year, sorta.


I too hope that this year's baller FA class is inexplicably dragged down in cost like last year's FA class was dragged down because it sucked, and because teams didn't want to spend too much in the face of the baller FA class that is happening RIGHT NOW.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Lefty » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:51 pm

What does PTR stand for?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Banedon » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:51 pm

Lefty wrote:What does PTR stand for?


Poor Tom Ricketts
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Lefty » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:54 pm

Banedon wrote:
Lefty wrote:What does PTR stand for?


Poor Tom Ricketts


"Poor" in the money sense?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:55 pm

Lefty wrote:
Banedon wrote:
Lefty wrote:What does PTR stand for?


Poor Tom Ricketts


"Poor" in the money sense?


Yup. Nobody actually pities Tom Ricketts beyond how he inexplicably makes Ted Cruz look like a charming, put together dude.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Banedon » Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:00 pm

Lefty wrote:
Banedon wrote:
Lefty wrote:What does PTR stand for?


Poor Tom Ricketts


"Poor" in the money sense?


As in, he and his family are stupid rich but from time to time money suddenly becomes an obstacle.
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