The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby davell » Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:58 am

squally1313 wrote:This doesn't really factor much into our plans per se, outside of luxury tax implications, but it just occurred to me that KB's arbitration number is going to be pretty interesting based on his performance this year. Has anyone ever gone down in salary from A1 to A2?


I'm not sure if anyone's ever gone down. I think you have to offer at least 80% of their prior year. That said, it's only done then, if it's someone that's a complete non tender candidate. And even then I think teams basically give them the same as the year before or even a very slight raise.

My guess is KB gets between 13-15 mill next season. He'll definitely get a raise.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:02 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Speaking of Baez - what are we expecting if he gets 100-120+ starts a SS?

Defensively? Probably average to above average but not elite like Russell. Offensively I have no idea what to predict other than 30ish HRs.


This isn't the first time that Tom has talked about someone playing SS like it has an impact on how they perform offensively, and I don't get it at all.

Yeah I don’t get that at all either. The only time a position should ever be an offensive factor is if a guy is moving on or off of catcher because of the wear and tear.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:20 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Defensively? Probably average to above average but not elite like Russell. Offensively I have no idea what to predict other than 30ish HRs.


This isn't the first time that Tom has talked about someone playing SS like it has an impact on how they perform offensively, and I don't get it at all.

Yeah I don’t get that at all either. The only time a position should ever be an offensive factor is if a guy is moving on or off of catcher because of the wear and tear.


I was more thinking defense as I am less confident he’d be above average moving there full time. Offensively he’s got more than enough power to make it work but yeah generally I do think a typical person will lose something somewhere when taking on a tougher assignment on a full time basis.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Tim » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:23 am

okay...different path. Assuming we miss on Harper/Machado:

pick up options on:

Strop
Q
Hamels

Trade:

Duensing + Kintzler + Chatwood for whatever savings can be had (Assume $5M)
LaStella for a relief prospect
Russell+ for cost controlled reliever - let's stick with Dominguez for now (this saves ~$5M)
Amaya + Lange + Swarmer (or pretty much whatever package works for them) for Jose Leclerc (Tex)

Sign:

Brantley
Escobar
Chavez

Lineup: (Zobrist will give lots of guys rest; Heyward & Almora are strict platoon; Caratini plays much more)

Brantley / Bryant / Rizzo / Baez / Schwarber / Escobar / Heyward / Contreras

Bench:

Happ / Caratini / Almora / Zobrist

Rotation:

Lester / Hendricks / Hamels / Quintana / Darvish

Swing:

Monty / Smyly / Mills

Bullpen:

Leclerc / Morrow / Strop / Dominguez / Cishek / Chavez / Edwards (+ swing guys when not in rotation --- I'm just going to assume injuries + DL shenanigans)
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Tim » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:47 am

I'd also be interested in Taylor Rogers from Min.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:10 am

Tim wrote:I'd also be interested in Taylor Rogers from Min.


I’m a fan but are the Twins selling? If trading for a LHR this offseason think I’m all about the most likely to be available Conley from Miami
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby soccer10k » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:23 am

Sammys Boombox wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Sammys Boombox wrote:On the record as no for Harper.

Like you don’t want him or don’t think we get him?

Don’t want him because I’m a big fraidy cat who thinks every big contract we sign is going to hamstring us when their shoulder or wrist or knee gives out.


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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby UK » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:25 am

soccer10k wrote:
Sammys Boombox wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Like you don’t want him or don’t think we get him?

Don’t want him because I’m a big fraidy cat who thinks every big contract we sign is going to hamstring us when their shoulder or wrist or knee gives out.


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I don't see the same red flags as with Darvish and Heyward.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby r_mack » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:09 am

Tim wrote:Russell+ for cost controlled reliever - let's stick with Dominguez for now (this saves ~$5M)

The Phillies aren't giving up their closer of the future for a dude suspended for domestic abuse.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammys Boombox » Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:32 pm

soccer10k wrote:
Sammys Boombox wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Like you don’t want him or don’t think we get him?

Don’t want him because I’m a big fraidy cat who thinks every big contract we sign is going to hamstring us when their shoulder or wrist or knee gives out.


Image


Yes, I know. And if we sign Harper I’m still going to be excited about it. I’m not vehemently opposed.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Regular Show » Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:40 pm

Sammys Boombox wrote:
soccer10k wrote:
Sammys Boombox wrote:Don’t want him because I’m a big fraidy cat who thinks every big contract we sign is going to hamstring us when their shoulder or wrist or knee gives out.


Image


Yes, I know. And if we sign Harper I’m still going to be excited about it. I’m not vehemently opposed.


So if you're against signing Harper then you're basically against any large contract for a significant FA. The Darvish deal can still work out and be a successful signing if he comes back healthy.

Heyward was a bust. Lester has been awesome. So it's like 1 bust, 1 success and 1 incomplete right now.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:57 pm

The Darvish signing was clearly done with the idea that they'd almost surely be be eating cost on the back half due to his injury history/tendencies, so that they effectively got nothing out of his first season is a pretty gigantic knock against him truly being "worth" his Cubs contract.

Obviously, that's not saying he won't be of value to them, but it's pretty unlikely that it's a wait and see situation in terms of seeing if it was a good signing or not (in the grand scheme of, "was this player's value worth his estimated dollar value;" obviously, if the guy only has one healthy season with the Cubs, but in that one season he's awesome and a huge part of them winning a WS, hey, I'm not gonna lose sleep over how much money they "lost" on him).
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:17 pm

Some scattered ideas that don't necessarily fit together:

- Sign Harper

- Bring back Hamels(remember, the option is really 14 million for purposes that matter), and the moment it's not damaging to the relationship(maybe in spring training after performances dictate), tell Smyly he's a reliever.

- Don't add a starter but piggyback Darvish/Smyly and Montgomery/Chatwood

- Find a second baseman who can take over the Zobrist mantle, Zobrist's presence means this can be a more speculative move(especially if you add Harper), but with Baez a permanent SS now there's a hole there that can't really wait or be planned as Hoerner's spot(though that is a possibility as early as summer 2020). So instead of feeling like you have to pay Jed Lowrie, you can try to find the next Joey Wendle.

- Asdrubal Cabrera fits the roster pretty well on a short deal

- Need to make sure the backup C is used more often next year. Whether that's finding another Ross or hitting Joe in the head til he plays Caratini, I don't have super strong feelings. Maldonado and Mathis are both plus framers that are FA, even if neither can hit.

- If you can add to the top of the pen, the depth with new guy, Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek would be very strong. David Robertson has some decline coming, but he's been pretty underrated over the years despite having made 50 million in his career. I'm fine with Chavez coming back too although ideally not as the best addition. It'd be interesting to see the trade targets the FO can come up with too.

- Sign Harper, in case you've forgotten.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby squally1313 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:22 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:- Don't add a starter but piggyback Darvish/Smyly and Montgomery/Chatwood


For as thin as the bullpen was stretched last year, do you really want to give two 'bullpen' spots to guys who are locked in to only pitching every 5 days?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:23 pm

I keep forgetting aboyt Smyly.

And I love the sound of ideas like:

- Don't add a starter but piggyback Darvish/Smyly and Montgomery/Chatwood


...but I'm a highly suspect that a last year manager likely fighting for his job is going to be willing to even try something like that, much less sticking to it, unfortunately.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:23 pm

Thinking this through made me realize that there's a bit of a roster crunch with pitchers too.

Lester, Hendricks, Q, Darvish, Chatwood, Montgomery, Smyly, Edwards, Strop, Morrow, Cishek, Duensing, Kintzler is a full pitching staff before any additions. Sure you can tell Duensing and Kintzler to get lost any time you want and that group will almost certainly have someone on the DL most of the time, but adding 3 pitchers(say, Hamels, Chavez, TBA) requires a tough choice. Smyly and Edwards are optionable, the former going to Iowa get stretched out seems like the likely choice in that scenario.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammys Boombox » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:24 pm

Regular Show wrote:
Sammys Boombox wrote:
soccer10k wrote:
Image


Yes, I know. And if we sign Harper I’m still going to be excited about it. I’m not vehemently opposed.


So if you're against signing Harper then you're basically against any large contract for a significant FA. The Darvish deal can still work out and be a successful signing if he comes back healthy.

Heyward was a bust. Lester has been awesome. So it's like 1 bust, 1 success and 1 incomplete right now.


Being a large market team I expect us to make blockbuster signings. I will be bubbling over with enthusiasm if we sign Harper. At the same time I’ll be worrying that a freak injury like a fastball to the wrong part of the wrist will screw us big time. I probably shouldn’t say I’m against the signing, moreso I’m just worried it’s a bust, mainly due to an injury. It’s a little tongue in cheek. I called myself a fraidy cat.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:24 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:- Don't add a starter but piggyback Darvish/Smyly and Montgomery/Chatwood


For as thin as the bullpen was stretched last year, do you really want to give two 'bullpen' spots to guys who are locked in to only pitching every 5 days?


You can have Smyly/Chatwood throw ~4 innings a week at once or you can have them or a replacement do it scattered across several games. Shouldn't make a difference in workload, and if anything makes planning the pen slightly more predictable.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:26 pm

And the more I think about it, the more I'm not really bothered by the idea of Caratini again being the backup catcher. Yeah, he stinks, but he's fine defensively/framing-wise, and almost any backup catcher you go out and get cheap is going to be a black hole offensively. That was just exposed so much more this season because the offense had SO many issues up and down for long stretches. It's sort of like a low grade backup QB position: if you get to the point where the backup seems like a real problem, you're kinda screwed to begin with because so many other things have gone wrong.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby CP_414 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:48 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:- Bring back Hamels(remember, the option is really 14 million for purposes that matter)


Really? Doesn’t it count as $20 mil towards the tax if the Cubs pick up the option?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:53 pm

CP_414 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:- Bring back Hamels(remember, the option is really 14 million for purposes that matter)


Really? Doesn’t it count as $20 mil towards the tax if the Cubs pick up the option?


We had this conversation back during his hot streak in a thread I can't remember, but essentially, since his 6 million buyout is guaranteed, it has counted towards the luxury tax throughout his contract. So if they pick up the option, that 6 million has already been accounted for prior to this year. My phrasing above oversells my confidence in this interpretation, but it is more logical than that 6 million counting twice.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby squally1313 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:57 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:And the more I think about it, the more I'm not really bothered by the idea of Caratini again being the backup catcher. Yeah, he stinks, but he's fine defensively/framing-wise, and almost any backup catcher you go out and get cheap is going to be a black hole offensively. That was just exposed so much more this season because the offense had SO many issues up and down for long stretches. It's sort of like a low grade backup QB position: if you get to the point where the backup seems like a real problem, you're kinda screwed to begin with because so many other things have gone wrong.


I think Caratini's potential offensive upside is definitely better than any of the FA catchers out there, but I'm not as sold on his defensive/framing abilities. Overall to your point, he's cheap, he's fine, whatever...focus on the bigger issues.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:00 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:And the more I think about it, the more I'm not really bothered by the idea of Caratini again being the backup catcher. Yeah, he stinks, but he's fine defensively/framing-wise, and almost any backup catcher you go out and get cheap is going to be a black hole offensively. That was just exposed so much more this season because the offense had SO many issues up and down for long stretches. It's sort of like a low grade backup QB position: if you get to the point where the backup seems like a real problem, you're kinda screwed to begin with because so many other things have gone wrong.


I think Caratini's potential offensive upside is definitely better than any of the FA catchers out there, but I'm not as sold on his defensive/framing abilities. Overall to your point, he's cheap, he's fine, whatever...focus on the bigger issues.


Oh, they could definitely upgrade defensively from him; he's just at least firmly middle of the pack enough that it's arguable whether or not it's worth spending the extra money to do so, relatively small as that would be.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby CP_414 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:00 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
CP_414 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:- Bring back Hamels(remember, the option is really 14 million for purposes that matter)


Really? Doesn’t it count as $20 mil towards the tax if the Cubs pick up the option?


We had this conversation back during his hot streak in a thread I can't remember, but essentially, since his 6 million buyout is guaranteed, it has counted towards the luxury tax throughout his contract. So if they pick up the option, that 6 million has already been accounted for prior to this year. My phrasing above oversells my confidence in this interpretation, but it is more logical than that 6 million counting twice.


Interesting. If so, it’s a no brainer to pick up that option.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby David » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:43 pm

damn it i won't miss russell but the more we talk about 2B options, i'm gonna miss having that insanely good of a DP combo
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