The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:53 pm

David wrote:damn it i won't miss russell but the more we talk about 2B options, i'm gonna miss having that insanely good of a DP combo


Maybe grab Dozier cheap/low commit and shoot for 60 HRs out of the MIF?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:12 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:And the more I think about it, the more I'm not really bothered by the idea of Caratini again being the backup catcher. Yeah, he stinks, but he's fine defensively/framing-wise, and almost any backup catcher you go out and get cheap is going to be a black hole offensively. That was just exposed so much more this season because the offense had SO many issues up and down for long stretches. It's sort of like a low grade backup QB position: if you get to the point where the backup seems like a real problem, you're kinda screwed to begin with because so many other things have gone wrong.

Caratini is like really bad though. He had 200 PAs, 50 catchers reached that, he ranked 41st in WAR amongst them, he was 37th in BB rate, 31st in K rate, 33rd in OBP, 43rd in SLG, 41st in wOBA, 40th in wRC+, 48th In DEF WAR, he ranked poorly in framing metrics too. He isn’t good.

I get it he’s the back up, like you said this guy isn’t going to be that good and have a flaw(s). But Caratini is bad, I want the backup catcher to at least be able to hit a little if he sucks on defense or be an elite defender/framer if he can’t hit and Caratini is none of those. There’s room for a backup upgrade here and it will make a difference. I think we all want Willy to play a little less to stay more fresh so I want a better option than Vic back there. A guy who frames well is probably what I prefer because hopefully he could help Willy with it and it helps the pitchers the most.

Maybe we also could get a team to dream on Vic being a thing as a switch hitter and could use him to attach to like Duensing or Kintzler (if the option is picked up) to dump that money.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby davell » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:16 pm

Mark Gonzalez has an article out on who he expects back and who is expected to go.....

The surprises/interesting ones.....

Hamels-staying,says pitched well enough to earn option. Theo seems adamant too, so not a surprise.
Kintzler- staying, one of those options is used. His obviously.
Montgomery- staying, says he'll face similar swing role. Personally thought he may be expendable.
Quintana- staying, only surprised by comment saying Cubs would likely move on, if not for Darvish, Chatwood uncertainty.
Almora- staying.
Bote- staying, utility role next year.
Caratini - staying, versatility could lead to more playing time
Seal Boy- knows his role well

Chavez- going, says could earn multi year deal elsewhere
De La Rosa- going, says he filled a glaring need
Duensing- going, says ineffectiveness means no guarantees
Wilson- going, says pitched well enough to earn robust deal elsewhere
Happ- going, says he's trade fodder for pitching depth
Russell- going, says after DV, he's unlikely to return
Schwarber- going, says power makes him attractive to AL teams

Obviously, this seems to be opinion. But, it's possibly based on what he's heard. Anyway, some of these are very interesting.....
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:18 pm

But again, if the offense actually clicks again and doesn't have to deal with an ever-growing pile of slumps and injuries, it really doesn't matter who your backup catcher is. Caratini has enough of a chance be serviceable enough that it wouldn't matter much if he's the backup. If they can get someone who fulfills want you want cheap enough, great, but odds are that if they're try to go as cheap as possible (and they likely will given what else is out there to spend money on), then they're only going to end up with a marginal upgrade at best. It's not a critical enough spot to overspend on; if Caratini ends up sucking again, then oh well. Give Contreras the needed time off anyway, because if the backup catcher not hitting is such a huge problem, then things are already much worse of than that to begin with.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:20 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:But again, if the offense actually clicks again and doesn't have to deal with an ever-growing pile of slumps and injuries, it really doesn't matter who your backup catcher is. Caratini has enough of a chance be serviceable enough that it wouldn't matter much if he's the backup. If they can get someone who fulfills want you want cheap enough, great, but odds are that if they're try to go as cheap as possible (and they likely will given what else is out there to spend money on), then they're only going to end up with a marginal upgrade at best. It's not a critical enough spot to overspend on; if Caratini ends up sucking again, then oh well. Give Contreras the needed time off anyway, because if the backup catcher not hitting is such a huge problem, then things are already much worse of than that to begin with.

I get that and it definitely is a luxury, it’s not so much if the back up catcher not hitting hurts us we have other problems it’s if the backup catcher can’t hit or play defense or frame then what the horsefeathers is he doing here?!?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby badger » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:20 pm

davell wrote:Mark Gonzalez has an article out on who he expects back and who is expected to go.....

The surprises/interesting ones.....

Hamels-staying,says pitched well enough to earn option. Theo seems adamant too, so not a surprise.
Kintzler- staying, one of those options is used. His obviously.
Montgomery- staying, says he'll face similar swing role. Personally thought he may be expendable.
Quintana- staying, only surprised by comment saying Cubs would likely move on, if not for Darvish, Chatwood uncertainty.
Almora- staying.
Bote- staying, utility role next year.
Caratini - staying, versatility could lead to more playing time
Seal Boy- knows his role well

Chavez- going, says could earn multi year deal elsewhere
De La Rosa- going, says he filled a glaring need
Duensing- going, says ineffectiveness means no guarantees
Wilson- going, says pitched well enough to earn robust deal elsewhere
Happ- going, says he's trade fodder for pitching depth
Russell- going, says after DV, he's unlikely to return
Schwarber- going, says power makes him attractive to AL teams

Obviously, this seems to be opinion. But, it's possibly based on what he's heard. Anyway, some of these are very interesting.....


I have an irrational love for Schwarbs and don't want him to go.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:24 pm

I would be extremely surprised if Schwarber goes anywhere. The front office loves him and probably values him more than most other teams, and the odds of him helping to bring in a premium SP/CF/2B are pretty slim, at which point you can just use money/players the FO likes less to get the same type of player he'll bring in trade.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:27 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I would be extremely surprised if Schwarber goes anywhere. The front office loves him and probably values him more than most other teams, and the odds of him helping to bring in a premium SP/CF/2B are pretty slim, at which point you can just use money/players the FO likes less to get the same type of player he'll bring in trade.

Yeah, I just don’t see it. We’ve heard he’s gonna get moved every offseason since 2015. Whatever his return would be likely could be had for not a ton of money in free agency.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:27 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:But again, if the offense actually clicks again and doesn't have to deal with an ever-growing pile of slumps and injuries, it really doesn't matter who your backup catcher is. Caratini has enough of a chance be serviceable enough that it wouldn't matter much if he's the backup. If they can get someone who fulfills want you want cheap enough, great, but odds are that if they're try to go as cheap as possible (and they likely will given what else is out there to spend money on), then they're only going to end up with a marginal upgrade at best. It's not a critical enough spot to overspend on; if Caratini ends up sucking again, then oh well. Give Contreras the needed time off anyway, because if the backup catcher not hitting is such a huge problem, then things are already much worse of than that to begin with.

I get that and it definitely is a luxury, it’s not so much if the back up hitter not hitting hurts us we have other problems it’s if the backup catcher can’t hit or play defense or frame then what the horsefeathers is he doing here?!?


To give the starting guy extra time off. That's just the situation they've found themselves in. They don't need to be weakening an area of strength (lots of money to spend on players that are going to require lots of money) to strengthen an area of far less critical need.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:38 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:But again, if the offense actually clicks again and doesn't have to deal with an ever-growing pile of slumps and injuries, it really doesn't matter who your backup catcher is. Caratini has enough of a chance be serviceable enough that it wouldn't matter much if he's the backup. If they can get someone who fulfills want you want cheap enough, great, but odds are that if they're try to go as cheap as possible (and they likely will given what else is out there to spend money on), then they're only going to end up with a marginal upgrade at best. It's not a critical enough spot to overspend on; if Caratini ends up sucking again, then oh well. Give Contreras the needed time off anyway, because if the backup catcher not hitting is such a huge problem, then things are already much worse of than that to begin with.

I get that and it definitely is a luxury, it’s not so much if the back up hitter not hitting hurts us we have other problems it’s if the backup catcher can’t hit or play defense or frame then what the horsefeathers is he doing here?!?


To give the starting guy extra time off. That's just the situation they've found themselves in. They don't need to be weakening an area of strength (lots of money to spend on players that are going to require lots of money) to strengthen an area of far less critical need.

Finding a little bit better backup I feel is still a little critical. Finding a veteran could help Willy’s growth and a guy with some sort of plus skill helps the team more than throwing Caratini out there with no plus skills to speak of (when we know the spot is going to get ~15 more games this year).

Also I have it kinda figured (in my planned offseason brain) a team probably likes Caratini enough they’d take him as a sweetener to take on Duensing/Kintzler (something like Vic, Maples, Duensing/Kintzler for a lottery ticket or post hype prospect) and the money you net there gets you the backup upgrade and still saves some money.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:44 pm

The same potential that a team might see in him is the same thing that makes him potentially at least a serviceable backup catcher next year for the Cubs.

If they can make it work, great; I just don't think it's that critical a move that they need to go out of their way to make. If things work out elsewhere, the backup C really doesn't need to be much more than a body that can give Contreras some rest.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:45 pm

Like, you're more often than not likely to have 2015 David Ross instead of 2016 David Ross.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby ConstableRabbit » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:02 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Like, you're more often than not likely to have 2015 David Ross instead of 2016 David Ross.

2015 David Ross would be an improvement. Vic isn't a good defensive catcher and also can't hit. It would be nice to have a backup C that's decent to good at one of those.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby treebird » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:04 pm

ConstableRabbit wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Like, you're more often than not likely to have 2015 David Ross instead of 2016 David Ross.

2015 David Ross would be an improvement. Vic isn't a good defensive catcher and also can't hit. It would be nice to have a backup C that's decent to good at one of those.


agreed. just get someone who can actually frame. shouldn’t cost much at all.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:06 pm

ConstableRabbit wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Like, you're more often than not likely to have 2015 David Ross instead of 2016 David Ross.

2015 David Ross would be an improvement.


It really wouldn't. Just a different type of suck.

It would be nice to have a backup C that's decent to good at one of those.


It would be! Again, if they can swing getting an actual upgrade (not just, "this other guy is technically better in that he sucks a little less") without spending too much, great! If not, oh well; I don't think it's that critical a spot to be worrying about upgrading.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:14 pm

For someone with the inclination to figure it out, which of these catchers with a decent RAA are FA this year?

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Bertz » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:51 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:For someone with the inclination to figure it out, which of these catchers with a decent RAA are FA this year?

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php


Looks like Mathis(1), Grandal(2), and Maldonado(8). Austin Hedges(10), could probably be had in trade without it being painful.

Also. I find it funny that Alex Avila is on the positive side of the ledger, after being horrific last year. I think this stuff is generally directionally correct, but IMO the magnitude is probably ~half of what the numbers say.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby nightman » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:05 pm

Bertz wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:For someone with the inclination to figure it out, which of these catchers with a decent RAA are FA this year?

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php


Looks like Mathis(1), Grandal(2), and Maldonado(8). Austin Hedges(10), could probably be had in trade without it being painful.

Also. I find it funny that Alex Avila is on the positive side of the ledger, after being horrific last year. I think this stuff is generally directionally correct, but IMO the magnitude is probably ~half of what the numbers say.


I like Hedges in a trade.

San Diego might be a possible destination for Russell. Galvis is a FA so they have a black hole at SS and AJ Preller seems like the type of guy that wouldn't care about the DV suspension.

Russell, + for Hedges?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby CP_414 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:09 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
CP_414 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:- Bring back Hamels(remember, the option is really 14 million for purposes that matter)


Really? Doesn’t it count as $20 mil towards the tax if the Cubs pick up the option?


We had this conversation back during his hot streak in a thread I can't remember, but essentially, since his 6 million buyout is guaranteed, it has counted towards the luxury tax throughout his contract. So if they pick up the option, that 6 million has already been accounted for prior to this year. My phrasing above oversells my confidence in this interpretation, but it is more logical than that 6 million counting twice.


Brett wrote about this today and he thinks Hamels would count as $20 mil vs the tax next year if the option is picked up, but he seemed uncertain. It would be nice to know for sure. I think they pick up the option either way, but it’s a much easier decision at $14 million vs the tax.

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/ ... -decision/
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:12 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:For someone with the inclination to figure it out, which of these catchers with a decent RAA are FA this year?

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

-Jeff Mathis ranks #1 and is a FA, he's going to be 36 next year and he can't hit at all but he's always ranked positive and been near the top the last few years. You'd have to be certain the framing/defense is elite because the offense is awful. Can't imagine he costs more than $2 million.

-Grandal is 2, but that's most likely not happening.

-Martin Maldonado is 8th, has always been positive going back ~5 years and near the top. He's not a great hitter but good enough for a backup who has great defense/framing, he'd be my #1 target but he's close enough to being a starter or platoon guy and someone probably gives him a better opportunity and more money than we'd want to spend if there are LT concerns. But if we have the FU offseason he'd be the guy.

-Ellis and Lucroy both rated awful this year but have had elite seasons in the past, Ellis is almost 40 though but wouldn't cost much. Lucroy has been bad the last two but really good the years before at framing/defense and he's not that old so idk what happened. Probably worth checking in to both by the FO nerds.

-Rivera rated poorly this year but was hurt and didn't play much, he was a slight negative in 2017 but has rated out well in the past and was here last year for a bit. He's 35/36 so maybe he's just done but he's probably worth a check in to as well.

-Russell Martin and Austin Hedges both rated well this year and in past years. I think both could be had in trades for not much.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby David » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:14 pm

Bertz wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:For someone with the inclination to figure it out, which of these catchers with a decent RAA are FA this year?

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php


Looks like Mathis(1), Grandal(2), and Maldonado(8). Austin Hedges(10), could probably be had in trade without it being painful.

Also. I find it funny that Alex Avila is on the positive side of the ledger, after being horrific last year. I think this stuff is generally directionally correct, but IMO the magnitude is probably ~half of what the numbers say.


i'd rather have grandal as our primary catcher than contreras
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:16 pm

nightman wrote:
Bertz wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:For someone with the inclination to figure it out, which of these catchers with a decent RAA are FA this year?

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php


Looks like Mathis(1), Grandal(2), and Maldonado(8). Austin Hedges(10), could probably be had in trade without it being painful.

Also. I find it funny that Alex Avila is on the positive side of the ledger, after being horrific last year. I think this stuff is generally directionally correct, but IMO the magnitude is probably ~half of what the numbers say.


I like Hedges in a trade.

San Diego might be a possible destination for Russell. Galvis is a FA so they have a black hole at SS and AJ Preller seems like the type of guy that wouldn't care about the DV suspension.

Russell, + for Hedges?

Happ, Russell, Maples or Caratini and Duensing for Hedges and Kirby Yates, who says no?
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:19 pm

Bertz wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:For someone with the inclination to figure it out, which of these catchers with a decent RAA are FA this year?

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php


Looks like Mathis(1), Grandal(2), and Maldonado(8). Austin Hedges(10), could probably be had in trade without it being painful.

Also. I find it funny that Alex Avila is on the positive side of the ledger, after being horrific last year. I think this stuff is generally directionally correct, but IMO the magnitude is probably ~half of what the numbers say.


It's helpful to look at multiple years too, occasionally you have big swings and looking at a longer time horizon helps shape the reality of what you're seeing.

I mentioned them in my original post, but Mathis and Maldonado are both consistently very strong framers so they can at least satisfy that end, because they are both abominable hitters.
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Tim » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:24 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:For someone with the inclination to figure it out, which of these catchers with a decent RAA are FA this year?

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

Schwarber was fantastic in 2017
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Re: The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread - "On wrongs swift vengeance waits..."

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:26 pm

Not to derail the catcher talk, because it’s a good conversation. But the Rockies left Gray off the playoff roster and dicked around with him this year, if he’s healthy and they soured on him I hope we are all over him. Happ++ for him would be ideal, could even see a scenario where him for Q and some other stuff either or both ways makes sense.
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