2019 Payroll tracking

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Creating a separate thread so people can reference this without finding bits and pieces scattered everywhere. This post will be updated as the offseason progresses. Let's start with 2 invaluable resources.

Cot's Contracts: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... icago-cubs
Arbitration estimates: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/ ... -2019.html

Leaning on those two heavily, here's what things look like. I'm going to be using the luxury tax numbers since that's far more relevant to roster planning.


Guaranteed - 14 players - 166.61 million

Rizzo - 5.857
Zobrist - 14
Heyward - 23
Lester - 25.833
Quintana - 10.5
Chatwood - 12.67
Darvish - 21
Morrow - 10.5
Strop - 5.75
Cishek - 6.5
Duensing - 3.5
Kintzler - 5
Hamels - 20
Descalso - 2.5


Arb estimates - 7 players - 38.9 million

Baez - 7.1
Russell - 4.3
Bryant - 12.4
Schwarber - 3.1
Hendricks - 7.6
Edwards - 1.4
Montgomery - 3


Renewals** - 4 players - 2.5 million

Contreras
Almora
Happ
Bote

** More players than these 4 qualify as renewals(Maples, Alzolay, Mills, Norwood, etc), but those 4 are the only roster certainties in my mind.


Renewals - 4 players - 2.5 million
Arb estimates - 7 players - 38.9 million
Guaranteed - 14 players - 166.61 million

Subtotal - 24 players - 205.51 million
Player Benefits - 15 million

Total current commitments: 224.21 million

Luxury tax threshold: 206 million
Luxury tax penalty: 20% on each dollar over the tax
Additional luxury tax penalties: Above 226 million, an extra 12% on each dollar over the tax; above 246 million, an extra 42.5% on each dollar over the tax and first round pick lowered by 10 spots (source)

[davell]

Figure in 2.25 mill for guys on the 40 Man. Plus, likely an extra 2-3 mill(at least) for in season call ups.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Figure in 2.25 mill for guys on the 40 Man. Plus, likely an extra 2-3 mill(at least) for in season call ups.

Wouldn't in-season call ups be a subset of the 40 man guys? Or am I misunderstanding you?

[davell]

Figure in 2.25 mill for guys on the 40 Man. Plus, likely an extra 2-3 mill(at least) for in season call ups.

Wouldn't in-season call ups be a subset of the 40 man guys? Or am I misunderstanding you?

Nah, those guys are 150k or so, as long as they're in the minors. But, once they get brought up, they're getting prorated major league salary. I've seen guys say it usually winds up costing teams 2-3 mill, over the course of the year. More, if there are lots of injuries.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Updated with Hamels' option being picked up and the Smyly trade.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Updated for TLS trade.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Updated for signing Descalso

[TomtheBombadil]

A reminder that this luxury tax nonsense is noise probably intended to breed familiars among fans who will eventually support an NFL-esque hard cap and contract system:

.... the punishment for exceeding the luxury tax threshold is absolutely brutal—a vicious, coffers-draining extraction. For proof, look at Boston, which, after running a payroll of $239.5 million, was absolutely gouged by Major League Baseball to the tune of [checks notes] uh, what Tyler Chatwood will make next year. Per the Associated Press:

The World Series champion Red Sox owe $11,951,091 in luxury tax for having baseball’s top payroll, according to final calculations by the commissioner’s office obtained by The Associated Press. The only other team that owes is the Washington Nationals, who must pay $2,386,097, their second straight year with a bill.

For going nearly $50 million over last year’s limit, the Red Sox were taxed just shy of $12 million (and will also see their 2019 first-round draft pick fall 10 spots). As the AP notes, only one other team drew a luxury tax bill last year: Washington, which coughed up about $2.4 million for a $205 million payroll. Every other team avoided it, thanks in part to a winter where over half the league slashed payroll. That includes the Dodgers and Yankees, who were both repeat luxury tax offenders—Los Angeles had paid it five straight years, New York 15—and as such paid a heftier fine every time.

.....

Both the Dodgers and Yankees had been coughed up a fair amount of dough in their taxed years. New York forked over a combined $341 million over the last 15 seasons, for an average of $22.7 million a year. Los Angeles was hit even harder, paying $149 million total since 2013, or just under $30 million annually; the post-2017 bill was $36.2 million. That’s not chump change.

Then again, these aren’t exactly poor teams. Per Forbes’ calculations, the Dodgers raked in over half a billion dollars in revenue in 2017; the Yankees were even higher, at $619 million. Those numbers almost certainly went up this season, just as MLB’s pockets have also bulged over the last several years. (The luxury tax threshold, by the way, isn’t close to keeping pace with the league’s increased revenues; it’s increasing by only a few million dollars each year.) Between individual TV rights deals, the gargantuan new contract the league recently signed with FOX for national broadcasts, money from the sale of BAMTech, and plenty more, teams are making money hand over fist right now. You could triple the luxury tax penalty and it wouldn’t make a dent in the wallets of the super-teams.

Even that financial hit won’t leave a lasting mark. Boston should have no trouble recouping the money gone to the luxury tax thanks to its World Series run. Postseason ticket sales, merchandise, all the extra cash that comes in thanks to a championship—the Red Sox can probably pay off that $11 million bill solely through three weeks of October baseball. Besides, you can’t (or at least shouldn’t) put a price on 108 wins, a division title, a pennant and a World Series victory.

....

But that’s exactly what teams are essentially doing, and the luxury tax is a big part of that. So long as it exists, teams will make excuses about avoiding it, even when the punishment is relatively light or easily affordable. That’s the goal of it, after all. When MLB instituted the luxury tax—or, in the league’s semi-deceptive branding, the “competitive balance tax”—in 1997, the idea was simple: keep teams from spending too much. Ostensibly, that helps the little fish keep up with the big ones, but in reality, it was an owner-approved plan to lower spending across the game...(It’s not as if we’ve achieved payroll equity, either; the gap between the biggest spending team in baseball last year and the lowest was $150 million.)

What’s silly is that this is all over relative peanuts. An $11 million penalty doesn’t even amount to much within baseball itself. That’s basically a season of Todd Frazier, or a pair of middle relievers, or a two-year deal for someone like Francisco Liriano.

https://amp.si.com/mlb/2018/12/18/luxur ... es-dodgers

Sorry if this is the wrong thread for this

[Sammy Sofa]

Eventually? Most fans would happily side with the owners in any sport over the players right now. The general perception to the average meatball is that the athletes in the sports they love are just overpaid indentured servants "playing a kids' game."

[gobigred]

That Heyward number is a kick in the junk for financial flexibility

[Bull]

That Heyward number is a kick in the junk for financial flexibility

I just pretend Heyward gives half his annual salary to Rizzo out of guilt. It makes me feel much better.

[Bluescale]

That Heyward number is a kick in the junk for financial flexibility

I just pretend Heyward gives half his annual salary to Rizzo out of guilt. It makes me feel much better.

I like to pretend that Heyward plays better. It helps me sleep at night.

[BigSlick]

That Heyward number is a kick in the junk for financial flexibility

Between Lester, Hamels and Darvish, we have 66 million tied up on 3 pitchers who will be either on the other side of 35 or possibly dead.

That's what makes me feel worst of all, to be honest.

[TomtheBombadil]

Between Lester, Hamels and Darvish, we have 66 million tied up on 3 pitchers who will be either on the other side of 35 or possibly dead.

That's what makes me feel worst of all, to be honest.

If these dipshits step up and fix the offense the age of the three SPs really will not bother me. Not that I’ve actually looked into it but WS winning rotations rarely seem to be young.

[treebird]

Updated with Hamels' option being picked up and the Smyly trade.

Updated for TLS trade.

Updated for signing Descalso

i really cannot believe that this was the offseason.

[17 Seconds]

i forgot they had to trade smyly to afford that

[big ball chunky time]

in the end this thread was more of a curse than the injury threads

[Cubswin11]

in the end this thread was more of a curse than the injury threads

I can think of another thread that cursed us more

[Sammy Sofa]

Updated with Hamels' option being picked up and the Smyly trade.

Updated for TLS trade.

Updated for signing Descalso

i really cannot believe that this was the offseason.

This is right up there with the lamest of lame Tribune offseasons.

"Oh, let's see how everything plays out; if a bunch of things can go right, they might finish .500!"

[SouthSideRyan]

Don't have to go that far back.

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/archiv ... =6&t=62517