Trade targets 2019

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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:14 am

Stroman, Sogard, and Giles please! Happ, Chatwood/Montgomery, Russell, Miller, Marquez, Roederer, and Ademan, please!

Giles against LHHs in 2019: .120/.170/.240 in 53 PAs
Career: .199/.264/.299 in 617 PAs

Or Merrifield, Gordon, and Kennedy?
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Derwood » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:46 am

Here is a computer simulation of Theo at the trade deadline:

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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby r_mack » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:54 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Stroman, Sogard, and Giles please! Happ, Chatwood/Montgomery, Russell, Miller, Marquez, Roederer, and Ademan, please!

Giles against LHHs in 2019: .120/.170/.240 in 53 PAs
Career: .199/.264/.299 in 617 PAs

Or Merrifield, Gordon, and Kennedy?

Merrifield might come more expensive than Quintana if they want to trade him. He's under an incredibly team control contract and he's one of the best hitters in the league at his position. Don't see the Cubs having close to enough to landing him.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:58 am

I have no interest in Merrifield
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:58 am

Derwood wrote:Here is a computer simulation of Theo at the trade deadline:

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Cubswin11 wrote:I have no interest in Merrifield


Yeah, same. I do like the other two but Merrifield's a weak big play
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby r_mack » Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:15 am

I think out of all the possible realistic assets the Cubs could trade for this deadline, Merrifield puts them the closest to winning a title. That being said, you've already screwed your future enough, eventually you have to start living with all your mistakes.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:23 am

r_mack wrote:I think out of all the possible realistic assets the Cubs could trade for this deadline, Merrifield puts them the closest to winning a title. That being said, you've already screwed your future enough, eventually you have to start living with all your mistakes.

He’s a 30 year old 2B on pace for ~3 wins and who’s typically been a 2-3 win player outside of 1 year. He isn’t moving the needle that much and he’s going to be expensive because of his crazy, outlier, year last year. There should be plenty of bats to find that won’t cost as much as his that will impact winning as much or more.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby r_mack » Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:41 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
r_mack wrote:I think out of all the possible realistic assets the Cubs could trade for this deadline, Merrifield puts them the closest to winning a title. That being said, you've already screwed your future enough, eventually you have to start living with all your mistakes.

He’s a 30 year old 2B on pace for ~3 wins and who’s typically been a 2-3 win player outside of 1 year. He isn’t moving the needle that much and he’s going to be expensive because of his crazy, outlier, year last year. There should be plenty of bats to find that won’t cost as much as his that will impact winning as much or more.

He's a huge upgrade at a position of need and has a better lineup around him to succeed
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:03 am

r_mack wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
r_mack wrote:I think out of all the possible realistic assets the Cubs could trade for this deadline, Merrifield puts them the closest to winning a title. That being said, you've already screwed your future enough, eventually you have to start living with all your mistakes.

He’s a 30 year old 2B on pace for ~3 wins and who’s typically been a 2-3 win player outside of 1 year. He isn’t moving the needle that much and he’s going to be expensive because of his crazy, outlier, year last year. There should be plenty of bats to find that won’t cost as much as his that will impact winning as much or more.

He's a huge upgrade at a position of need and has a better lineup around him to succeed

He’s been worth .8 WAR more than Bote but has gotten ~150 more PAs. Bote should just be playing 2B more.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby r_mack » Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:06 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
r_mack wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:He’s a 30 year old 2B on pace for ~3 wins and who’s typically been a 2-3 win player outside of 1 year. He isn’t moving the needle that much and he’s going to be expensive because of his crazy, outlier, year last year. There should be plenty of bats to find that won’t cost as much as his that will impact winning as much or more.

He's a huge upgrade at a position of need and has a better lineup around him to succeed

He’s been worth .8 WAR more than Bote but has gotten ~150 more PAs. Bote should just be playing 2B more.

Bote's problem is he can't hit lefties at all
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:12 am

r_mack wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
r_mack wrote:He's a huge upgrade at a position of need and has a better lineup around him to succeed

He’s been worth .8 WAR more than Bote but has gotten ~150 more PAs. Bote should just be playing 2B more.

Bote's problem is he can't hit lefties at all

He hasn’t hit them this year but he hit them well last year (almost 140 wRC+) and it’s only been like 55 PAs this year. He’s like 3 decent games vs them from the numbers looking a lot better. I’m not against adding a bat(s) (look at my recent posts in here) I don’t really care for Merrifield because he doesn’t really move the needle and will cost a lot. If he ends up not costing a ton I’d be fine adding him, just think we can get what he does for a lot less prospect capital with other targets or even just calling Robel up.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby r_mack » Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:34 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
r_mack wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:He’s been worth .8 WAR more than Bote but has gotten ~150 more PAs. Bote should just be playing 2B more.

Bote's problem is he can't hit lefties at all

He hasn’t hit them this year but he hit them well last year (almost 140 wRC+) and it’s only been like 55 PAs this year. He’s like 3 decent games vs them from the numbers looking a lot better. I’m not against adding a bat(s) (look at my recent posts in here) I don’t really care for Merrifield because he doesn’t really move the needle and will cost a lot. If he ends up not costing a ton I’d be fine adding him, just think we can get what he does for a lot less prospect capital with other targets or even just calling Robel up.

I think people need to start to realize that the front office and Maddon get players like Bote in situations they can succeed in. Same thing with Almora last year. He was tearing it up and everyone wanted him to be freed. He was then freed at the end of last year and this year and you're beginning to see what happens when he gets put into situations that are unfavorable for him. My guess is if Bote were to play everyday, there would start to be a huge drop-off in his performance. I don't think the Cubs are intentionally screwing themselves over by not playing someone they thought could help them.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:53 am

r_mack wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
r_mack wrote:Bote's problem is he can't hit lefties at all

He hasn’t hit them this year but he hit them well last year (almost 140 wRC+) and it’s only been like 55 PAs this year. He’s like 3 decent games vs them from the numbers looking a lot better. I’m not against adding a bat(s) (look at my recent posts in here) I don’t really care for Merrifield because he doesn’t really move the needle and will cost a lot. If he ends up not costing a ton I’d be fine adding him, just think we can get what he does for a lot less prospect capital with other targets or even just calling Robel up.

I think people need to start to realize that the front office and Maddon get players like Bote in situations they can succeed in. Same thing with Almora last year. He was tearing it up and everyone wanted him to be freed. He was then freed at the end of last year and this year and you're beginning to see what happens when he gets put into situations that are unfavorable for him. My guess is if Bote were to play everyday, there would start to be a huge drop-off in his performance. I don't think the Cubs are intentionally screwing themselves over by not playing someone they thought could help them.

I think Bote is a pretty legitimate hitter and it’s not like Almora much at all last year. Everyone could see how Almora was succeeding was unsustainable with the soft contact, too many GBs, no speed, etc approach that was build on batted ball luck. Now I agree there certainly are guys you don’t want to play too much, just don’t think the Bote and Almora analogy are all that accurate.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:29 am

I like Tom's idea of Sogard and Giles. That would be a brilliant maneuver.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby squally1313 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:19 pm

r_mack wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
r_mack wrote:Bote's problem is he can't hit lefties at all

He hasn’t hit them this year but he hit them well last year (almost 140 wRC+) and it’s only been like 55 PAs this year. He’s like 3 decent games vs them from the numbers looking a lot better. I’m not against adding a bat(s) (look at my recent posts in here) I don’t really care for Merrifield because he doesn’t really move the needle and will cost a lot. If he ends up not costing a ton I’d be fine adding him, just think we can get what he does for a lot less prospect capital with other targets or even just calling Robel up.

I think people need to start to realize that the front office and Maddon get players like Bote in situations they can succeed in. Same thing with Almora last year. He was tearing it up and everyone wanted him to be freed. He was then freed at the end of last year and this year and you're beginning to see what happens when he gets put into situations that are unfavorable for him. My guess is if Bote were to play everyday, there would start to be a huge drop-off in his performance. I don't think the Cubs are intentionally screwing themselves over by not playing someone they thought could help them.

If anything, if Maddon was putting Bote in positions to succeed it would be the opposite of what's happened so far this year. Last year he had an .874 OPS, .372 wOBA in 51 PAs against lefties, but was only at a .668 OPS against righties. Across the board, the strikeouts were the biggest issue, but he's dropped that rate from 28.6% to 23.9% this year...still not great, but just a tick worse than league average (22.7%). He's just weirdly struggled a ton against lefties this year, but both sample sizes are probably too small to make anything out of it. In his short career, he's at .731 vs LHP and .770 vs RHP, .760 OPS overall, with no real evidence to say he's been getting lucky or there's a drop off coming. If anything, he's improved from year, and maybe there's another level he can get to.

Calling Merrifield an .800 OPS guy (.792 career, .848 this season, ZIPS ROS projection of .776), and saying their defense is a wash...I don't think it's worth the cost to get that kind of upgrade in the line up. You could maybe talk me into it if they were going to start playing KB in right every day and then Bote at third, because then it's Merrifield over Almora, which is a significant upgrade. But Merrifield over Bote gives you maybe a win upgrade over the rest of the season, at a very high price compared to what some rentals might go for.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:29 pm

squally1313 wrote:
r_mack wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:He hasn’t hit them this year but he hit them well last year (almost 140 wRC+) and it’s only been like 55 PAs this year. He’s like 3 decent games vs them from the numbers looking a lot better. I’m not against adding a bat(s) (look at my recent posts in here) I don’t really care for Merrifield because he doesn’t really move the needle and will cost a lot. If he ends up not costing a ton I’d be fine adding him, just think we can get what he does for a lot less prospect capital with other targets or even just calling Robel up.

I think people need to start to realize that the front office and Maddon get players like Bote in situations they can succeed in. Same thing with Almora last year. He was tearing it up and everyone wanted him to be freed. He was then freed at the end of last year and this year and you're beginning to see what happens when he gets put into situations that are unfavorable for him. My guess is if Bote were to play everyday, there would start to be a huge drop-off in his performance. I don't think the Cubs are intentionally screwing themselves over by not playing someone they thought could help them.

If anything, if Maddon was putting Bote in positions to succeed it would be the opposite of what's happened so far this year. Last year he had an .874 OPS, .372 wOBA in 51 PAs against lefties, but was only at a .668 OPS against righties. Across the board, the strikeouts were the biggest issue, but he's dropped that rate from 28.6% to 23.9% this year...still not great, but just a tick worse than league average (22.7%). He's just weirdly struggled a ton against lefties this year, but both sample sizes are probably too small to make anything out of it. In his short career, he's at .731 vs LHP and .770 vs RHP, .760 OPS overall, with no real evidence to say he's been getting lucky or there's a drop off coming. If anything, he's improved from year, and maybe there's another level he can get to.

Calling Merrifield an .800 OPS guy (.792 career, .848 this season, ZIPS ROS projection of .776), and saying their defense is a wash...I don't think it's worth the cost to get that kind of upgrade in the line up. You could maybe talk me into it if they were going to start playing KB in right every day and then Bote at third, because then it's Merrifield over Almora, which is a significant upgrade. But Merrifield over Bote gives you maybe a win upgrade over the rest of the season, at a very high price compared to what some rentals might go for.


I have no opinion on this, but just to point out, you also could play Merrifield in right field instead of KB if wanted.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby squally1313 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:38 pm

Good call...missed the fact that he's essentially been a younger Zobrist for them defensively. I knew he had been putting up good numbers, but given that he plays for KC, I literally couldn't have told you anything else about him.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:47 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:I like Tom's idea of Sogard and Giles. That would be a brilliant maneuver.

Sogard and Descalso have pretty identical career slash lines, wRC+ and wOBA. No horsefeathering thank you.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:45 pm

moving on from Descalso and trading for Sogard, you say

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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby ConstableRabbit » Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:51 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:I like Tom's idea of Sogard and Giles. That would be a brilliant maneuver.

Sogard and Descalso have pretty identical career slash lines, wRC+ and wOBA. No horsefeathering thank you.

To be fair, those slash lines, wRC+, and wOBA would be a huge upgrade but yeah that's kind of the point.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Bote McBoteface » Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:56 pm

Im still only really interested in an elite lefty bullpen arm. Anything else we could add, i dont think the upgrade warrants the cost and i dont think it helps us that much in the playoffs. But if we get lucky enough to add an elite lefty and get Morrow healthy, and we hit the playoffs with a bullpen looking like:

Kimbrel
Morrow
Hand/Doolittle or similar
Strop
Cishek
Montgomery


Then we become a real dangerous team in the playoffs, even if we only make the wildcard.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby squally1313 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:29 pm

Bote McBoteface wrote:Im still only really interested in an elite lefty bullpen arm. Anything else we could add, i dont think the upgrade warrants the cost and i dont think it helps us that much in the playoffs. But if we get lucky enough to add an elite lefty and get Morrow healthy, and we hit the playoffs with a bullpen looking like:

Kimbrel
Morrow
Hand/Doolittle or similar
Strop
Cishek
Montgomery


Then we become a real dangerous team in the playoffs, even if we only make the wildcard.


Overall agreed, but at this point I'm going to need to see a big turnaround from Monty to include him on any 'shutdown playoff bullpen' list. Ryan has been much better in more innings this year, and the long reliever role can be filled by Adbert and whoever doesn't make the four man rotation. Also think at the end of the day, one of Kintzler and Brach is going to prove themselves worthy of a low leverage spot.

They went with 11 pitchers in the 2017 divisional series, so I'm thinking the 7 pen arms are as follows:

1. Kimbrel
2. Morrow
3. Strop
4. Lefty trade acquisition
5. Cishek
6. The fifth starter that didn't make the rotation. I'll say Quintana because it makes it look better to have 2 lefties, but probably Darvish at this point
7. Azlolay

Worth noting that 14 offensive players seems excessive and included Leonys Martin, so might have been a bit excessive. If that's the case, throw in Ryan or one of Kintzler/Brach. All this goes to show that we need Montgomery to show a turnaround so someone will want him to start and will give us a solid reliever for him.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:31 pm

Do we need an elite LHRP or just a really good RP who dominates LHB. I tend to think we just need the latter.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby squally1313 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:36 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Do we need an elite LHRP or just a really good RP who dominates LHB. I tend to think we just need the latter.


You know who has historically been good against LHBs....Brandon Kintzler. Career like .640 OPS against, sub .300 OBP, and this year in 43 PAs, LHBs are hitting 077/163/179 against him.

But beyond that...I don't really care. Assume Joe will want him him to be a lefty, but whatever gets the job done.
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Re: Trade targets 2019

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:00 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Do we need an elite LHRP or just a really good RP who dominates LHB. I tend to think we just need the latter.

I agree, just find a LOOGY. We don’t need another elite arm, or at least pay the prospect capital to get one.
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