2020 roster

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2020 roster

Postby Old Style » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:30 am

Who’s under contract? Who are we stuck with? Who can be traded? Who are realistic FA or trade targets?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:35 am

Impending free agents (too lazy to check if any of them have options): Zobrist, Hamels, Strop, Castellanos, and a few dumb pitchers who don't matter.

There won't be any major trades because Epstein will never trade any of the hitters he's developed.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:43 am

I brought this up last week, but Yu can opt out of his contract after the season if he wants. I still don't see it happening, but he's making things interesting for himself.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:44 am

Also, I feel like Cole Hamels has cost himself years and millions of dollars with his injury-riddled second half.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:55 am

I think at least one of Willy or Schwarbs are moved as the bigger/shocking name. KB, Javy, etc aren’t going anywhere. There won’t be that big of a shakeup, we’re still going to be the best team in the division going in to next year even with minor moves so take your chances two more years with this rough core and hope thinks break better. Win the division, get to the DS and roll the dice in the dumb tournament. I think Almora and Happ are gone. Descalso should be gone.

I’m fine adding 1 of the billion 2-3 win pitchers who are FA and won’t cost significant money for the 5th spot, keep Chatwood in the pen, add a relief arm with a decent track record through trade most likely, then smooth out the edges with a better/deeper roster at the least. Even some Lowrie, Margot, Frazier, Rojas, etc type adds go a long way. And also obviously be willing to pay up to make a Mookie trade happen if he’s truly available. I’m also wanting Castellanos back but more for 12-14 in AAV for 3-4 years and not the 4-5+ years at closer to 20 in AAV he’ll be looking for.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:01 am

Man, would moving Schwarber really be that "shocking" outside of it just being Theo finally for once not clinging desperately to the idea that one of his pet His Guys can't be moved? Like, I don't see him bringing much back unless he's packaged with someone else notable.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:08 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:Man, would moving Schwarber really be that "shocking" outside of it just being Theo finally for once not clinging desperately to the idea that one of his pet His Guys can't be moved? Like, I don't see him bringing much back unless he's packaged with someone else notable.

Yeah more shocking in the sense he’s a key part of the core, seems popular in the clubhouse and is culture shock type stuff. I wouldn’t expect much more than a good bullpen arm and a prospect or a similar valuable MLB position player that got his value differently than Schwarbs for him.

My preference would be just to keep him, honestly. Since the return is nominal. I also think we could get by fine with a Schwarbs/Heyward/Castellanos OF, defensively for a whole year. Just find a RHH, CF caddy (Margot) to pair with Heyward.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:16 am

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:25 am

Mostly reposted from the Castellanos thread:

This year's LT payroll is right around 235, 245 if you think they would've been able to do the same salary stuff without Zobrist spending most of the year on the restricted list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VJ9nVwD1eUJabnL9tuQuxJa1K2oM2HXyqJS8Od0pMIo/

I'm assuming that they aren't going to cross the 40M over the tax threshold, and as a result payroll will be relatively static. I say relatively because you can come to conclusions using similar logic that differ by ~5 million or so, and that could matter a fair bit for how you plan the offseason.

Material increases in LT payroll for next year:

Bryant Arb3
Baez Arb2
Schwarber Arb2
Contreras Arb1
Rizzo option
Hendricks extension

Staying on the high side to be safe, that's probably around 30 million. Let's be super safe and call it 35 million for the other prearb/arb increases(Kemp, Caratini, Wick, etc).

And then the salary leaving:

Hamels 20
Zobrist 14
Morrow 10.5
Cishek 6.5
Strop 6.25
Kintzler 5
Duensing 3.5

There's probably a couple mil more too from various relievers leaving like Brach, Cedeno, and Montgomery. Add that all together and if you put your thumb to the wind you can see somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 million to spend before removing any guaranteed salary at the low(Russell, Descalso) or high(Chatwood, Heyward) end.

As far as what you need, you probably need an outfielder, and you almost definitely need a SP and at least 1 quality RP. There's a lot of directions you could go to get there though, especially depending on your level of faith in various position players like Bote, Hoerner, or Happ.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:01 pm

Bote isn't spectacular, but relatively cheap reliable production. He might be a good option to flip for a solid reliever to a small market team looking for his bat. I say this w/o really knowing what the FA reliever market looks like, and it depends on keeping Happ and Hoerner around and may necessitate Garcia if you let Zobrist walk. What FA utility guy will be available this offseason?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:16 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Mostly reposted from the Castellanos thread:

This year's LT payroll is right around 235, 245 if you think they would've been able to do the same salary stuff without Zobrist spending most of the year on the restricted list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VJ9nVwD1eUJabnL9tuQuxJa1K2oM2HXyqJS8Od0pMIo/

I'm assuming that they aren't going to cross the 40M over the tax threshold, and as a result payroll will be relatively static. I say relatively because you can come to conclusions using similar logic that differ by ~5 million or so, and that could matter a fair bit for how you plan the offseason.

Material increases in LT payroll for next year:

Bryant Arb3
Baez Arb2
Schwarber Arb2
Contreras Arb1
Rizzo option
Hendricks extension

Staying on the high side to be safe, that's probably around 30 million. Let's be super safe and call it 35 million for the other prearb/arb increases(Kemp, Caratini, Wick, etc).

And then the salary leaving:

Hamels 20
Zobrist 14
Morrow 10.5
Cishek 6.5
Strop 6.25
Kintzler 5
Duensing 3.5

There's probably a couple mil more too from various relievers leaving like Brach, Cedeno, and Montgomery. Add that all together and if you put your thumb to the wind you can see somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 million to spend before removing any guaranteed salary at the low(Russell, Descalso) or high(Chatwood, Heyward) end.

As far as what you need, you probably need an outfielder, and you almost definitely need a SP and at least 1 quality RP. There's a lot of directions you could go to get there though, especially depending on your level of faith in various position players like Bote, Hoerner, or Happ.


I mean, I guess people are liking this post because it's so well explained via the usual excellent TT standards, because otherwise it is so horsefeathering depressing.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:46 pm

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby UMFan83 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:54 pm

I think Theo goes scorched earth on this roster. I think the only untouchables are Rizzo, Javy and Hendricks. Everyone else is various levels of available. Heck Rizzo might even be available but I think they want his clubhouse presence and the Cubs probably value a 30 year old 1B with 2 years left on his deal more than other teams would. I don't think they will dump guys just to upend the roster but I think they will set out to fix some of the lingering issues this team has had the last couple of seasons and will be more willing than ever to trade a Bryant/Contreras/Schwarber. I'd put money on at least 1 of those 3 being gone in the offseason.

You guys do roster construction stuff much better than me, I'm just throwing guesses out there. But I think Theo knows that the roster needs more than just a couple of small tweaks.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:06 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I mean, I guess people are liking this post because it's so well explained via the usual excellent TT standards, because otherwise it is so horsefeathering depressing.


It mostly depends on how you think they can best upgrade the roster. If you want to get to a point of optimism(and admittedly this is a rosey view), this is the one year crunch they were always going to have and it's not nearly as bad as it could have been, 20-25 million free to fill several holes could've been worse, thanks to most of the longer term pieces(all of the SP, most of the position players) having good enough seasons that they can be counted on for significant roles in 2020. I also think some forced scarcity isn't the worst thing in the world for the front office, since they've relied on the free agency and deadline rental treadmill too much for my liking.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:35 pm

UMFan83 wrote:I think Theo goes scorched earth on this roster. I think the only untouchables are Rizzo, Javy and Hendricks. Everyone else is various levels of available. Heck Rizzo might even be available but I think they want his clubhouse presence and the Cubs probably value a 30 year old 1B with 2 years left on his deal more than other teams would. I don't think they will dump guys just to upend the roster but I think they will set out to fix some of the lingering issues this team has had the last couple of seasons and will be more willing than ever to trade a Bryant/Contreras/Schwarber. I'd put money on at least 1 of those 3 being gone in the offseason.

You guys do roster construction stuff much better than me, I'm just throwing guesses out there. But I think Theo knows that the roster needs more than just a couple of small tweaks.


The roster-building enthusiast in me would love that, but I think the roster shakeup can be significant while also not being 10 trades and having 20 new faces. I think the biggest 'shake up' is likely to be Contreras getting dealt, between his defensive shortcomings and his injury history he's not exactly a foundational piece, and he's still got plenty of team control to fetch something significant, plus backfilling him with a partner for Caratini that can frame isn't a super expensive proposition.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bote McBoteface » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:01 pm

UMFan83 wrote:I think Theo goes scorched earth on this roster. I think the only untouchables are Rizzo, Javy and Hendricks. Everyone else is various levels of available. Heck Rizzo might even be available but I think they want his clubhouse presence and the Cubs probably value a 30 year old 1B with 2 years left on his deal more than other teams would. I don't think they will dump guys just to upend the roster but I think they will set out to fix some of the lingering issues this team has had the last couple of seasons and will be more willing than ever to trade a Bryant/Contreras/Schwarber. I'd put money on at least 1 of those 3 being gone in the offseason.

You guys do roster construction stuff much better than me, I'm just throwing guesses out there. But I think Theo knows that the roster needs more than just a couple of small tweaks.


I think youre right that at least one of Rizzo/Bryant/schwarber/Contreras will be out, but id say in order of most to least likely itd be Schwarber/Rizzo/Bryant/Contreras. Schwarber is pretty obvious, but i put Rizzo as 2nd most likely simply because its easier to replace a 1st baseman, and his contract seems to give him some excess value that will start to deteriorate rapidly as he gets closer to FA. If youre gonna trade Rizzo rather than watch him leave via FA, the time to do so is this offseason. We have inhouse options to replace him, too. But id rather go outside to replace him if he did get traded.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:31 pm

Since I'm off sick and my brain is obsessing with this, one permutation on how this could work:

- Extend Castellanos

- Contreras for the best SP you can get. Syndergaard? Snell? Marquez? Let's call it Snell even though I'm a little skeptical the Rays are willing to do it.

- Schwarber and Short to SD for Margot and Hedges. Hedges has the pedigree to bounce back with the bat and he's a strong framing backup at worst, Margot is what Almora was supposed to be while having some upside(especially outside Petco). SD wants to compete and their corner OF situation is a bit of a mess. Margot is an easier filled hole than power bat in Petco, and they're probably ready to give the reins at C to Mejia. Short can be immediately infield depth since they don't have a ton of answers there either.

- Almora for a hopeful reliever prospect you think can make a 2020 impact.

- Sign your favorite reliever, there aren't overwhelming options but let's call it Will Smith.

Rotation is now Hendricks/Snell/Darvish/Quintana/Lester, and you still have Chatwood/Alzolay as spot starters.

Pen is now Kimbrel/Smith/Wick/Ryan/Chatwood plus your Iowa Shuttle pair of choice. They could also go NRI or cheap one year deal on whatever Kintzler/Brach/Phelps caliber depth they like if the money allows.

The lineup becomes very flexible so you can do a lot depending on the day/matchup. Catcher has a RH and LH option, Bote/Hoerner/Descalso are your 2B/backup IF depending on the day, and most of the OF playing time should be spread across Castellanos/Margot/Happ/Heyward, which is a nice balance of R/L, defense, power/contact. The end product is a bit less sexy without Schwarber and Contreras's power, but a full season of Castellanos hedges against that plus the best option of the OF and IF rotations is likely to be solid.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Brian » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:54 pm

I found these numbers yesterday when I was looking around at stuff on spotrac. The numbers look pretty up to date (and have Zobrist salary pro-rated)

2019 actual salary - 220,259,847

2019 projected Competitive balance Payroll - 234,759,847

Tax - 6,803,151

On their site they list the final Est. Payroll + Tax Bill as 241,562,998

So the estimated actual dollars spent in 2019 would be $227,062,998
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:43 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Since I'm off sick and my brain is obsessing with this, one permutation on how this could work:

- Extend Castellanos

- Contreras for the best SP you can get. Syndergaard? Snell? Marquez? Let's call it Snell even though I'm a little skeptical the Rays are willing to do it.

- Schwarber and Short to SD for Margot and Hedges. Hedges has the pedigree to bounce back with the bat and he's a strong framing backup at worst, Margot is what Almora was supposed to be while having some upside(especially outside Petco). SD wants to compete and their corner OF situation is a bit of a mess. Margot is an easier filled hole than power bat in Petco, and they're probably ready to give the reins at C to Mejia. Short can be immediately infield depth since they don't have a ton of answers there either.

- Almora for a hopeful reliever prospect you think can make a 2020 impact.

- Sign your favorite reliever, there aren't overwhelming options but let's call it Will Smith.

Rotation is now Hendricks/Snell/Darvish/Quintana/Lester, and you still have Chatwood/Alzolay as spot starters.

Pen is now Kimbrel/Smith/Wick/Ryan/Chatwood plus your Iowa Shuttle pair of choice. They could also go NRI or cheap one year deal on whatever Kintzler/Brach/Phelps caliber depth they like if the money allows.

The lineup becomes very flexible so you can do a lot depending on the day/matchup. Catcher has a RH and LH option, Bote/Hoerner/Descalso are your 2B/backup IF depending on the day, and most of the OF playing time should be spread across Castellanos/Margot/Happ/Heyward, which is a nice balance of R/L, defense, power/contact. The end product is a bit less sexy without Schwarber and Contreras's power, but a full season of Castellanos hedges against that plus the best option of the OF and IF rotations is likely to be solid.


I'm all for extending Castellanos, but Hedges is certainly defense only because he can't hit at all. Everybody mentions Margot, but the bump he might give wouldn't be that great. I would shop Chatwood as a SP to all of the teams looking for rotation help. Contreras or Schwarber would have to be the two names to be shopped, if we want anything of value in return.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:46 pm

Here's my first go of it

- Exercise Q's and Rizzo's options, obviously. Phelps too assuming it stays at $3 million.

- Trade Contreras, Chatwood and a Norwood type to the Rockies for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez (let's say we pay half the difference in Chatwood's and Grays contract ~$7 million is the difference, so we save ~$3 mil)

- Happ and Short for Margot

- Ademan and Abbott for Adam Fraizer

- Cut Descalso

- re-sign Nick (lets call it 4/55-65)

- Trade Almora for near major league ready bullpen arm or utility guy (like another team's Short) that's in AA/AAA

- Sign Jason Castro or Russell Martin to be the backup with Vic

Roster (we get 26 guys this year):

Position Players (13)

C- Vic
1B- Rizzo
2B- Nico
SS- Javy
3B- KB
LF- Schwarbs
CF- Heyward
RF- Nick

Bench: Margot (CF), Fraizer 2B/OF, Bote IF, Kemp IF/OF, Castro/Martin C

Pitchers (13)

Rotation:
Lester
Darvish
Hendricks
Gray
Q

Bullpen
Kimbrel
Wick
Estevez
Ryan
Wieck
Phelps
Underwood
Mills

Underwood And Mills are out of options so they get first crack at the bullpen. Then Graveman, Rea, Adbert, Mekkes, Hultzen, etc are on the shuttle.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Brian » Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:02 pm

pretty sure Hultzen is also out of options
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:26 pm

Brian wrote:pretty sure Hultzen is also out of options

He’s an outright FA but I think it’s typical a guy like him signs back in a minor league deal after we paid him to rehab.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:22 pm

Explain to me why we would move Schwarber. The guy puts up a .958 2nd half OPS with a 22.2K% on a .246 babip good for a 139wRC+. People are clamoring to throw 4 years and 60M at Castellanos, but want to move a cheaper Schwarber. I don't get it.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bote McBoteface » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:41 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Explain to me why we would move Schwarber. The guy puts up a .958 2nd half OPS with a 22.2K% on a .246 babip good for a 139wRC+. People are clamoring to throw 4 years and 60M at Castellanos, but want to move a cheaper Schwarber. I don't get it.


Hes the one guy who has moderately high value while also being relatively easy to replace with a more productive version. I also think he’ll break out next year and have a monster season at the plate, but Ive also thought that for 3 straight seasons.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:58 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Explain to me why we would move Schwarber. The guy puts up a .958 2nd half OPS with a 22.2K% on a .246 babip good for a 139wRC+. People are clamoring to throw 4 years and 60M at Castellanos, but want to move a cheaper Schwarber. I don't get it.


I’m not anti-Schwarber, but he’s had good stretches multiple times before that didn’t end up representing a new norm. I’m also not the world’s biggest Castellanos fan, but he does represent a pretty good use of FA dollars all things considered. In other words, in a vacuum I’d rather buy Nick and trade for pitching than buy the pitching given what’s out there.
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