2020 roster

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Cubswin11
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:49 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Don't get me wrong, he's no Adbert Alzolay or Alec Mills, but a healthy 29 YO on a one year deal who can fairly reliably deliver a couple WAR and ~180 innings is pretty practical if unspectacular


I’d rather roll the dice on Adbert, Mills, Chatwood, cheap 1 year FA than give up assets for Tehran with 1 year left. Velo down, walks a ton of dudes, doesn’t really miss bats. Not worth the time, money, energy and assets to pursue a deal for him. If he’s a throw in, in a Willy or KB deal with them, sure. But I don’t think it’s worth going out of the way to get him.


Sure, also still threw up what would be a strong season for a 5th starter for like the 6th time in his career. If he's injured then yeah, scratch the idea, but not sure how Teheran on a one year in some throwaway pitching trade is any worse than the junk FA options behind Cole. I'm also weirded out by how easy it is to flip between Cubs in-house pitching being trash to them all being assets and guys who need to be garaunteed jobs no matter how little they've done

If we’re spending money/resources on the rotation I’d hope it’s for more than an adequate 5th starter who probably has little upside left and has a $12 million salary. Just run with internal options over him or spend $4 mil or whatever on a FA if we are dumpster diving. Do my idea of trading for Jon Gray and/or Pivetta though.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:53 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:What about Eaton in the OF if the Nats let hm go? He's got two team options for '20-'21 at $9.5 and 10.5 million

Why would the Nats let him go?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:57 am

Cubswin11 wrote:If we’re spending money/resources on the rotation I’d hope it’s for more than an adequate 5th starter who probably has little upside left and has a $12 million salary. Just run with internal options over him or spend $4 mil or whatever on a FA if we are dumpster diving. Do my idea of trading for Jobs Gray and/or Pivetta though.


As a guy who's been suggesting Pivetta since Hammel left, I would much prefer him to Teheran. He's probably similarly attainable, so yes please. I have trouble believing the Rockies are moving Gray anymore but sure yeah, if the Cubs can land him then do it. I'm all about landing a post-hype guy like Gray. OTOH if the choice is between Alzolay/Mills and throwing a couple low minor arms or Tyson Miller for a year of a much more reliable BOR arm still in his 20s then yeah, Teheran please
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby d_money » Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:35 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:If we’re spending money/resources on the rotation I’d hope it’s for more than an adequate 5th starter who probably has little upside left and has a $12 million salary. Just run with internal options over him or spend $4 mil or whatever on a FA if we are dumpster diving. Do my idea of trading for Jobs Gray and/or Pivetta though.


As a guy who's been suggesting Pivetta since Hammel left, I would much prefer him to Teheran. He's probably similarly attainable, so yes please. I have trouble believing the Rockies are moving Gray anymore but sure yeah, if the Cubs can land him then do it. I'm all about landing a post-hype guy like Gray. OTOH if the choice is between Alzolay/Mills and throwing a couple low minor arms or Tyson Miller for a year of a much more reliable BOR arm still in his 20s then yeah, Teheran please

Let’s face it - don’t we already have enough guys in the rotation who are 4/5 in Q and Lester?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby squally1313 » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:26 pm

d_money wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:If we’re spending money/resources on the rotation I’d hope it’s for more than an adequate 5th starter who probably has little upside left and has a $12 million salary. Just run with internal options over him or spend $4 mil or whatever on a FA if we are dumpster diving. Do my idea of trading for Jobs Gray and/or Pivetta though.


As a guy who's been suggesting Pivetta since Hammel left, I would much prefer him to Teheran. He's probably similarly attainable, so yes please. I have trouble believing the Rockies are moving Gray anymore but sure yeah, if the Cubs can land him then do it. I'm all about landing a post-hype guy like Gray. OTOH if the choice is between Alzolay/Mills and throwing a couple low minor arms or Tyson Miller for a year of a much more reliable BOR arm still in his 20s then yeah, Teheran please

Let’s face it - don’t we already have enough guys in the rotation who are 4/5 in Q and Lester?


Q was worth 3.5 WAR this year, even with his miserable September, which was good for 26th best in baseball. But yes, definitely, he's a 4th or 5th starter. On a related note, good luck to Aaron Nola and Clayton Kershaw, both guys who put up a lower WAR this year (in more innings) in their fight to make the rotation next year.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby BigSlick » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:34 pm

I'm entirely baffled by how Q is in the top 30 of starter WAR (fangraphs), his numbers look so damn pedestrian. But then, so does everyone elses, thats the juiced ball for you
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Tedward » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:45 pm

BigSlick wrote:I'm entirely baffled by how Q is in the top 30 of starter WAR (fangraphs), his numbers look so damn pedestrian. But then, so does everyone elses, thats the juiced ball for you


Me too. bWAR has him at a 0.7 ... Not sure why there's such a wide disparity... Hendricks for example is pretty consistent between the two WAR models
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:08 pm

On the rotation, something to consider is that we will have a lot more decent options at Iowa than in years past. We're probably looking at an Iowa rotation of:

Alzolay
Abbott
Miller
Graveman
Rea

None of those look like immediately incredible options, but all except Rea (who probably sucks, but did put up a sub 4 ERA in this year's insane PCL) are legitimately interesting, in addition to Mills who will be in the pen. I'd specifically like to call out Graveman, who was a solid league average starter who many people liked as a breakout pick prior to surgery. With his mid 90's sinker and high spin breaking ball looks a lot like Pirates era Charlie Morton.

In previous years, we'd have our 5 starters, Montgomery in the pen, and a guy like Rea at Iowa and that was it. So it was imperative that our worst starter was someone who was still pretty reliably okay like Hammel. Now though, if we're not bringing in someone actually good, I want the 5th starter spot to have flexibility. I'd rather be able to cycle through these guys than lock into someone who's going to guarantee us 1 WAR.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:10 pm

BigSlick wrote:I'm entirely baffled by how Q is in the top 30 of starter WAR (fangraphs), his numbers look so damn pedestrian. But then, so does everyone elses, thats the juiced ball for you


He got BABIP'd pretty hard plus the juiced ball made it so that the league average ERA was 4.51 this year
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby muntjack » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:53 pm

Without a big splash, I'd just prefer

Darvish
Hendricks
Q
Lester
Chatwood

Pivetta just seems like a younger Chatwood with double the HR rate. I wouldn't mind him as insurance in AAA, I suppose.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby champaignchris » Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:09 pm

How much would a Jake Odorizzi/Wade Miley/Ivan Nova/Tanner Roark type really cost for a couple years? 2 years, $25MM?

I’m frankly more concerned with Lester than I am with the Chatwood/Mills/Alzolay slot. Over the last three seasons he’s gone through stretches where he just didn’t have it.

And with several years in a row now of declining results, I’m afraid the eye-test might be more predictive of Quintana’s next season than fWAR. There’s a bit of an Edwin Jackson c. 2014 thing going on here, where the stuff and the peripherals aren’t adding up to the expected results. At some point, you’re not getting BABIP’ed to death because of bad luck - You’re getting BABIP’ed to death because it’s easy to get hits off you.

I think constructing the 2020 pitching staff around the assumption that Quintana and Lester - and Kimbrel for that matter - are all going to bounce back is a big mistake. I’d like to have someone else around who can get 150 innings just in case and then be a bridge to the future after Lester, Quintana and Chatwood are all gone after 2020.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:50 pm

2 deals to ponder:

Contreras, Almora, Short, and Underwood to Pittsburgh for Marte, Frazier, and Kela.

Bote and Chatwood to Texas for Leclerc and Mazara.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:17 pm

champaignchris wrote:How much would a Jake Odorizzi/Wade Miley/Ivan Nova/Tanner Roark type really cost for a couple years? 2 years, $25MM?

Something like that, maybe like 3/30. There’s so many guys that have similar value to the names you listed I wouldn’t be surprised if they cost less. There’s also, Keuchel, Chacin, Bumgarner, Hamels, Hill, Wacha, Gibson, Gio, Lyles, and I’m sure I’m missing a few that all seem to be in that same bucket to me. When you also consider there’s Cole, probably Strasburg and Wheeler that will take decent years and money, some of those others guys are going to be able to be had for real cheap given the high supply of them.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:30 pm

champaignchris wrote:And with several years in a row now of declining results, I’m afraid the eye-test might be more predictive of Quintana’s next season than fWAR. There’s a bit of an Edwin Jackson c. 2014 thing going on here, where the stuff and the peripherals aren’t adding up to the expected results. At some point, you’re not getting BABIP’ed to death because of bad luck - You’re getting BABIP’ed to death because it’s easy to get hits off you.


Not really sure this tracks when you only have to go as far back as 2018 to see him outperform his FIP thanks to a low BABIP
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:34 pm

JBJ a non-tender candidate?

Aside from 2015 (123 wRC+) and 2016 (118 wRC+), Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. has been a below average offensive player during his career, offsetting much of the value he provides with his dazzling defense.

Heading into his final year of arbitration after earning $8.55 million in 2019, the 29-year-old is a non-tender candidate for a Boston club that is looking to trim payroll, writes MLB.com's Ian Browne. That said, Browne notes that the Red Sox are more likely to trade Bradley than non-tender him if they need to get his salary off the books.

Bradley's future may depend on what happens with J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. Red Sox president/CEO Sam Kennedy admitted that it will be "difficult" to keep both Martinez and Betts on the roster in 2020, with owner John Henry on record as saying he’d like to get the team’s payroll below the first luxury-tax threshold of $208 million.


A non-tendered Bradley Jr. would be a pretty ideal pickup with what's out there, but I would also trade them some MiL pitching, Almora, or Chris Morel. JBJ's glove makes him a fit pretty easily, he's got a weird history with offense but there's not zero potential to hit so that's nice. Still would probably need to trade for a guy to compete or platoon with, but still seems like a step forward for CF

A similar enough player in Ender Inciarte maybe doesn't make it through the offseason with the Braves? The Braves really seem like a team for the Cubs to make a trade with this offseason. Their fourcoredation or w/e it's supposed to be is so young that a guy like Contreras could go in as the grizzled experienced young vet at a grizzled experience vet position, they have CFers and pitching for days, they're cheap as horsefeathers but have money to spend so a first arg star might be their kind of buy....Theo needs to raid that garbage franchise, one last hurrah before those laurels or politics or investing comes calling then off to Valinor to fight for probably a more powerful Morgoth
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:48 pm

Bradley's a solid option for CF, but he has to come as a ton tender IMO. He's set to make $10M+ via arb this winter, and he's too limited and our budget too tight to justify that.

Another guy on the Bosox I find intriguing is Nate Eovaldi. I generally like him as a bounceback candidate, and with the Red Sox trying desperately to get below the LT I wonder if we could get some relief help in exchange for taking on his salary. Something like Eovaldi and Matt Barnes for not too much in prospects? Gives us a pitching staff of:

SP - Yu, Kyle, Q, Jon, Eovaldi

CP - Kimbrel
SU - Barnes, Wick
MR - Ryan, Wieck, Chatwood, Underwood
LR - Mills

What's nice about Eovaldi specifically is that even if he continues to struggle as a starter like he did in 2019, he's still a fairly safe fallback option in relief (he had a 2.61 FIP on relief this year). I would then probably trade Chatwood at that point and reinvest the 13 million.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby ChiCubsFan » Sun Oct 06, 2019 3:02 pm

How do we fit Gerrit Cole into the budget?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Oct 06, 2019 3:08 pm

ChiCubsFan wrote:How do we fit Gerrit Cole into the budget?


By getting the next one. Jon Gray is the obvious parallel that could be available.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:22 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
ChiCubsFan wrote:How do we fit Gerrit Cole into the budget?


By getting the next one. Jon Gray is the obvious parallel that could be available.

Yup, he’s probably my #1 realistic target this offseason of FA or trade option. We should have the right pieces to get him (whether it’s minor leaguers but none of the main ones in Davis, Amaya, Marquez, Nico types or major leaguers like Willy/Vic, Happ, Bote). They’re also trying to cut payroll and his ARB estimate is around $7 mil.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:01 pm

Cole is going to be Beast Mode wherever he goes, and whatever "next Cole" that Cubs try to pull out of their ass will have their shoulder explode into a Bloomin' Onion mid-game. YOU KNOW THAT'S HOW THIS WILL GO.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:40 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Cole is going to be Beast Mode wherever he goes, and whatever "next Cole" that Cubs try to pull out of their ass will have their shoulder explode into a Bloomin' Onion mid-game. YOU KNOW THAT'S HOW THIS WILL GO.


COUNTERPOINT: ARRIETA
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:44 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
ChiCubsFan wrote:How do we fit Gerrit Cole into the budget?


By getting the next one. Jon Gray is the obvious parallel that could be available.


does Gray pitch in the upper 90's?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:50 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:does Gray pitch in the upper 90's?


He averaged 96 on the 4 seam this year, so yes
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:51 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Cole is going to be Beast Mode wherever he goes, and whatever "next Cole" that Cubs try to pull out of their ass will have their shoulder explode into a Bloomin' Onion mid-game. YOU KNOW THAT'S HOW THIS WILL GO.


COUNTERPOINT: ARRIETA


COUNTERCOUNTERPOINT: EVERYTHING ELSE.

And besides, Jake or the "next Cole" are the guys an org like this is supposed to have the pieces/smarts to go and get AND they flex and land the big monsters like Cole.
Last edited by Sammy Sofa on Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:26 pm

Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half
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