2020 roster

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:16 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half


So having two of them would be a good thing?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby squally1313 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:21 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half


So having two of them would be a good thing?


And also in one more start and 14 more innings, Cole put up 4.1 WAR in the second half vs Yu's 2.5 WAR, so..."basically" is doing a lot of work there. Yu was great, and the most fun I've had watching a Cubs pitcher since Jake's run, but...Cole (and Verlander and Flaherty) was/were on a different planet.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:14 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half


So having two of them would be a good thing?

Non tender Q, sign Cole and trade for Gray and we can have 3.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:15 am

squally1313 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half


So having two of them would be a good thing?


And also in one more start and 14 more innings, Cole put up 4.1 WAR in the second half vs Yu's 2.5 WAR, so..."basically" is doing a lot of work there. Yu was great, and the most fun I've had watching a Cubs pitcher since Jake's run, but...Cole (and Verlander and Flaherty) was/were on a different planet.

I had no idea Cole was so good in the second half, more was saying Yu in the 2nd half was basically Cole for the season.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Tim » Tue Oct 08, 2019 4:40 am

Low(ish) Cost offseason

1) If they can't be traded, non-Tender Russell & Almora to save $5M
2) Move on from: Cishek, Hamels, Strop, Kintzler, Zobrist, Phelps, Cedeno, Barnette, Lucroy, Morrow, Holland

3) Sign Will Smith
4) Sign Castellanos
5) Sign Gennett (should be a low-ish cost signing after lousy year, with upside)
6) Sign Brock Holt
7) Trade Happ, Alzolay, Uelman to Colorado for Gray + McGee (taking on the salary to make it happen)



SP) Darvish
SP) Gray
SP) Hendricks
SP) Quintana
SP) Lester

SP Depth) Graveman/Chatwood/Mills

RP) Kimbrel
RP) Smith
RP) McGee
RP) Ryan
RP) Wick
RP) Graveman/Chatwood/Mills
RP) Graveman/Chatwood/Mills

2B) Gennett
RF) Castellanos
3B) Bryant
1B) Rizzo
SS) Baez
LF) Schwarber
C) Contreras
CF) Heyward

B) Caratini
B) Kemp
B) Descalso
B) Bote
B) Holt


I actually like the relatively low-key additions to the offense with Castellanos, Gennett and Holt. I think it gives the team a lot of different looks against opposing pitchers and a lot of flexibility off the bench - especially when you include Hoerner replacing Descalso once he's released mid-year.

I'd like to upgrade the starters more than this, but I'm not sure how to do it on a budget.

The relievers have the real potential to sink an otherwise solid team. They'd need Wick & probably Wieck to emerge as reliable options. It would also really help if another arm or two developed quickly into solid relief options instead of spending another $5-10M in free agent additions.

--------

If the team wanted to add another $20M to the budget by trading Q for a cost-controlled reliever and adding Cole, I'd be much happier!
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Deeg » Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:17 am

Tim wrote:7) Trade Happ, Alzolay, Uelman to Colorado for Gray + McGee (taking on the salary to make it happen)!


I think you’d have to take Colorado’s entire payroll to get them to agree to that deal.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby d_money » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:31 am

Maples needs to make the step and be dominant next year.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby squally1313 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:26 pm

Is McGee just for salary purposes? Because he hasn't been good in two years. If you want to pick up salary, just grab Ian Desmond and let him crush lefties in left field.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby ConstableRabbit » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:33 pm

That would be cool but how is that a low cost offseason? lol
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:39 pm

ConstableRabbit wrote:That would be cool but how is that a low cost offseason? lol


Yeah that stretches past the realm of likely limitations the team is going to have, by at least 10 million, I'd say.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Tim » Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:18 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
ConstableRabbit wrote:That would be cool but how is that a low cost offseason? lol


Yeah that stretches past the realm of likely limitations the team is going to have, by at least 10 million, I'd say.

It seemed low(ish) cost compared to my last plan with Cole and Donaldson.

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Tim » Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:19 pm

squally1313 wrote:Is McGee just for salary purposes? Because he hasn't been good in two years. If you want to pick up salary, just grab Ian Desmond and let him crush lefties in left field.

Pitchers have hope of improving when they leave Colorado, plus he only has a one year commit.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby squally1313 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:38 pm

Tim wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Is McGee just for salary purposes? Because he hasn't been good in two years. If you want to pick up salary, just grab Ian Desmond and let him crush lefties in left field.

Pitchers have hope of improving when they leave Colorado, plus he only has a one year commit.

I know this is cutting down small sample sizes down even more, but he was actually worse away from home this year, once you notice that his BABIP went down 187 points (.397 to .210) from home to road. Ks went way down, HRs went up. He's fine as a means of picking up salary to facilitate a trade, but I don't think he can be relied upon for anything in a solid bullpen.

Grey was actually worse on the road too, for what it's worth.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Named After Maddux » Tue Oct 08, 2019 8:52 pm

I'm operating with the assumption the Cubs have $32 million to work with this offseason.

Offseason plan: I listed rationale in the spoiler tags.

Don't bring in Joe Girardi. I can buy in with basically anyone else that's been brought up (Ross, Beltran, Espada, Fuld, Bard, Loretta). I think it'll be Ross, but my pick would be Espada.
Poach the absolute best pitching and hitting specialists from the Rays, Astros, Dodgers and give them Assist GM/Director positions.


Trades:
Willson Contreras, Jose Quintana, James Norwood for Drew Waters, Kyle Wright, Ender Inciarte

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Ultimately I don't believe the Braves will consider trading Pache or Ian Anderson. Realmuto was traded for a top 30 prospect in Sanchez, a 3 WAR catcher (Alfaro), and a prospect. Waters is similarly graded (#27 BA, #23 MLB). He can be ready this year and solves CF for a long time as a plus defensive/high OBP player. Inciarte is not the same level as Alfaro, but was fine in the OF and has posted a contact rate >80% every year of his career. He's an injury risk, but fine when combined with Hoerner playing a bit of CF and bench options available. Kyle Wright is still ranked high, but he's been squared up a bit. Maybe a bit more tweaking and experience would allow him to stick in the rotation. Atlanta has pulled back from him a bit. I could see them moving him in the right deal (pun intended). Adding Quintana makes up the difference as he can slide right into the rotation for Atlanta.
If Contreras to Atlanta doesn't work, I like the Padres as a trade partner a lot.


Ian Happ, David Bote, Duane Underwood Jr. (or Alzolay if needed) for Jon Gray

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I don't know what the price for Gray will be. I've seen others post that a package around Ian Happ and Alzolay wouldn't come close to touching Gray in a trade, but I've also read Tony Andracki mention that Ian Happ would cost Gray + a prospect. I find the latter hard to believe so I felt it settled in the middle. Bote has a good amount of value and is fairly cheap with his contract. Ian Happ made significant changes. Both have plus power and Coors would be an excellent place for them. Truth be told, I like both players in a vacuum, but I think the Cubs are going to prioritize contact rate, defense, and pitching wiffs this offseason.


Free Agents:
Sign Yasmani Grandal 3 year/$50 million
Howie Kendrick 2 year/$15 million
Billy Hamilton 1 year/$2.5 million (25/26th player)
Sign Dellin Betances 1 year/$2.5 million
Pedro Strop 1 year $2.5 million

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I think Grandal is a no-brainer for this team. He's caught a lot of innings so there's some significant mileage, but you can afford to have Caratini start multiple times a week.

Kendrick adds a lot to the team as someone that can play more at 2B early and a bit at 3B without needing to play every day. The defense isn't spectacular, but he's not terrible (outside of in the NLDS). He hasn't posted a contact % less than 79% since 2008.

Betances is a complete wild card. He could be a top RP in the league or pitch 0 innings next year. He may cost more than what I listed. I have no idea how to value it. If available for cheap we should look at him as an option. Strop actually looks like a great option to bring back on a cheap deal. He publicly stated he wanted to come back and his stuff finally started to tick back up in September. They need more in this pen though. I'd love for Marquez to be an option in August. It's certainly still a risky part of the team. It wouldn't shock me to see Chatwood moved to a team like the Royals (eating half the salary) for Hill or Barlow. I left him on the team for now.


Total payroll add is approximately $30 million

Pitching staff:
SP) Hendricks
SP) Darvish
SP) Gray
SP) Lester
SP) Wright/Graveman/MIlls

RP) Kimbrel
RP) Betances
RP) Wick
RP) Strop
RP) Wieck
RP) Chatwood
RP) Kyle Ryan
RP) Graveman/Mills/Triple AAA filler

Position Players:
2B) Hoerner/Kendrick
3B) Bryant
1B) Rizzo
SS) Baez
C) Grandal
LF) Schwarber
CF) Inciarte
RF) Heyward

B) Caratini
B) Hoerner/Kendrick
B) Kemp
B) Descalso
B) Almora
B) Hamilton
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:30 pm

Pham would be an interesting target if the Rays would make him available/he gets too expensive for them.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Backtobanks » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:30 pm

Trade Contreras, Almora, Short, and Underwood to Pittsburgh for Marte, Frazier, and Kela.
Trade Chatwood and Bote to Texas for Leclerc and Mazara.

Extend Quintana and sign a catcher (?), Maybin, Odorizzi, Liriano.

Rizzo
Frazier
Baez
Bryant
Schwarber
Marte
Heyward
Caratini

Darvish
Hendricks
Lester
Quintana
Odorizzi

Wick
Wieck
Kela
Leclerc
Ryan
Kimbrel
Liriano

Happ, Hoerner, Mazara, Maybin, Catcher (26th man- Mills, Alzolay, Norwood, Maples, Kemp, Descalso, Graveman)
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:39 pm

Adding Marte and Frazier would be awesome. They’re the exact type of hitters we need.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:45 pm

An offseason that ends in Grandal, Gray, Wright, Waters, a qualified veteran CF with at least another half season in him, and Betances? Theo needs to get on it

Leclerc seems so attainable after a weird year, would love to see the Cubs land Marte and Frazier too. Mazara's an interesting young OF too, and yeah like Leclerc seems to have had his disagreements or hit a rough patch with the Rangers
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:54 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Pham would be an interesting target if the Rays would make him available/he gets too expensive for them.


I refuse to accept that much heavy blinking between him and Bryant on the same team.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:17 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Pham would be an interesting target if the Rays would make him available/he gets too expensive for them.


I really really like this, assuming he's still a legit CF (and his sprint speed is steady, so he *should* be). I do wonder what the Rays would want in return though. A Contreras/Pham swap works for us, but their hard on for framing has me skeptical of their interest.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:47 am

Bertz wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Pham would be an interesting target if the Rays would make him available/he gets too expensive for them.


I really really like this, assuming he's still a legit CF (and his sprint speed is steady, so he *should* be). I do wonder what the Rays would want in return though. A Contreras/Pham swap works for us, but their hard on for framing has me skeptical of their interest.

Yeah I could see them having more interest in Vic than Willy, actually. Obviously Vic isn’t enough for a 1 for 1 swap. Idk what it would take or if we have stuff they’d want but I’d like him as a target. He’s probably more in the bucket of long shot guys (like Marte) than realistic guys.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:53 am

Why would the Cubs blow Contreras on a 32 YO Tommy Pham?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:58 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Why would the Cubs blow Contreras on a 32 YO Tommy Pham?

I don’t think they’d trade Willy for him. I’m guessing it would be some combo of Happ, Bote, Vic, and prospects for him if they made a move. I’d be willing to move Roederer for him. They also seem like they’d have interest in the Zagunis/Short type guys who are MLB ready but we don’t really have a spot for them. It wouldn’t shock me if Zagunis has a few nice years as a 1B/DH.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 5:51 am

Found our CF’er




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Re: 2020 roster

Postby ConstableRabbit » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:15 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Found our CF’er





I'm all for a plus-plus speed guy who's a great defender in CF, but I see a lot of GB hits that would probably be outs in MLB in that video.
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