2020 roster

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Deeg » Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:52 am

Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:17 am

OTOH
Deeg wrote:Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.


How? He doesn't have a 2020+ contract and will get one at FA prices as a 30 YO hitter tied to a draft pick for the Cubs...Oh and he plays the same position as the team's current best player, who also needs a 2020 contract! From a Cubs perspective this seems like a rough start
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:32 pm

Deeg wrote:Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.


In a 1:1 comparison, how is being obligated to pay for his age 34-35 seasons at FA prices a point in Rendon's favor? He's almost certainly not going to be at star-level productivity at that point. That doesn't have to be a dealbreaker, but it sure isn't a net positive compared to Bryant's situation.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:45 pm

Deeg wrote:Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.


Honestly, I think the complete opposite. Free agency has been particularly unkind to guys in their mid 30's lately, so Rendon's not going to want to sign a deal like that and hit FA again at 35. He is most likely going to geta contract that could be his last, 8-10 years in the 30 per year neighborhood. There's an outside chance he does something short at a crazy AAV, like 4/150, but until we actually see one I'm growing increasingly skeptical that the Dodgers are actually offering these.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby GaryWoods » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:46 pm

Bertz wrote:
Deeg wrote:Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.


Honestly, I think the complete opposite. Free agency has been particularly unkind to guys in their mid 30's lately, so Rendon's not going to want to sign a deal like that and hit FA again at 35. He is most likely going to geta contract that could be his last, 8-10 years in the 30 per year neighborhood. There's an outside chance he does something short at a crazy AAV, like 4/150, but until we actually see one I'm growing increasingly skeptical that the Dodgers are actually offering these.


I happened to read an article about Howie Kendrick in the last couple of days where Rendon was quoted as saying that he doesn't want to be playing baseball when he's Kendrick's age (36). Maybe he was just poking fun at Kendrick, but if he was serious a deal that takes him to age 35 might be exactly what he looks for.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby squally1313 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:59 pm

GaryWoods wrote:
Bertz wrote:
Deeg wrote:Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.


Honestly, I think the complete opposite. Free agency has been particularly unkind to guys in their mid 30's lately, so Rendon's not going to want to sign a deal like that and hit FA again at 35. He is most likely going to geta contract that could be his last, 8-10 years in the 30 per year neighborhood. There's an outside chance he does something short at a crazy AAV, like 4/150, but until we actually see one I'm growing increasingly skeptical that the Dodgers are actually offering these.


I happened to read an article about Howie Kendrick in the last couple of days where Rendon was quoted as saying that he doesn't want to be playing baseball when he's Kendrick's age (36). Maybe he was just poking fun at Kendrick, but if he was serious a deal that takes him to age 35 might be exactly what he looks for.


Friend of a friend works for Boras and passed along something similar. Rendon doesn't really like baseball that much, is just looking for a shorter term deal that is going to set him/family up for generations. Something like a 4/160 deal might not be out of the question.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Backtobanks » Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:18 pm

squally1313 wrote:
GaryWoods wrote:
Bertz wrote:
Honestly, I think the complete opposite. Free agency has been particularly unkind to guys in their mid 30's lately, so Rendon's not going to want to sign a deal like that and hit FA again at 35. He is most likely going to geta contract that could be his last, 8-10 years in the 30 per year neighborhood. There's an outside chance he does something short at a crazy AAV, like 4/150, but until we actually see one I'm growing increasingly skeptical that the Dodgers are actually offering these.


I happened to read an article about Howie Kendrick in the last couple of days where Rendon was quoted as saying that he doesn't want to be playing baseball when he's Kendrick's age (36). Maybe he was just poking fun at Kendrick, but if he was serious a deal that takes him to age 35 might be exactly what he looks for.


Friend of a friend works for Boras and passed along something similar. Rendon doesn't really like baseball that much, is just looking for a shorter term deal that is going to set him/family up for generations. Something like a 4/160 deal might not be out of the question.


Obviously 4/120 wouldn't be good enough to set him/family up for generations. :lol:
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:16 pm

Guys no need to discuss our offseason anymore, this guy has the correct answer

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:21 pm

Theo offering Russell that extension:

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:19 pm

I've been playing around with payroll numbers this year, and while it sucks that things are tight for us they're also really tight for the Brewers and Cards.

The Brewers are right around last year's payroll already, before adding anyone. They do have about a dozen players in arb, so they could scrounge up ~$10M if they non tender several guys, but they're probably at best looking at enough to re-sign Moustakas. It also sounded last year like they stretched to get up to $120M, so they might not have any room even if they do clear a little money. The Lorenzo Cain deal got them a division title and was totally worth it, but it's going to hurt badly the next three years.

The Cards are currently $5-10M south of where they opened last year. They've previously indicated that they have a little bit more payroll wiggle room, but regardless I'd expect they don't have any more than the 20-30 available that we do. They can re-sign or replace Ozuna, but likely not much on top of that.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:06 pm

https://nypost.com/2019/10/20/adding-fr ... r-the-top/

But let’s start with a pipe dream: The Yanks should call the Indians and ask about Francisco Lindor.

Will he be available? Maybe not overtly, as Cleveland tries to be discreet. But the Indians are a smart, proactive organization. They have conceded they cannot afford Lindor long term (think: $300 million plus). He is a free agent after the 2021 season, and his tab for the next two years will be $43 million-ish or more, an amount that does not work for Cleveland. This is the last best moment for the Indians to maximize return and set themselves up well for the near future. Teams with deeper farms such as the Braves and Dodgers could be in play and redirect their shortstops (Dansby Swanson or Corey Seager) to the Indians or elsewhere.


Get on it (Cole(/Kluber?) and Lindor), Theo!
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:41 am

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/201 ... o-work-on/

In the last five seasons, here are the highest swinging rates on pitches out of the strike zone, min 80 PA:

Pedro Ciriaco, 2015, 53.2%
Juan Graterol, 2017, 52.0%
Jorge Alfaro, 2019, 50.4%
Tomas Nido, 2018, 48.9%
Kevin Pillar, 2019, 48.8%
Nico Hoerner, 2019, 48.6%
Francisco Pena, 2018, 48.5%
Salvador Perez, 2018, 48.4%
John Hicks, 2019, 48.3%


Hitters with wRC+ > 110, O-Swing > 42%, 2013-2019 (min 400 PA)

Javy Baez, 2018, 131 wRC+
Tim Anderson, 2019, 130 wRC+
Juan Uribe, 2014, 122 wRC+
Adam Jones, 2013, 119 wRC+
Pablo Sandoval, 2013, 117 wRC+
Corey Dickerson, 2017, 116 wRC+
Corey Dickerson, 2018, 115 wRC+
Eddie Rosario, 2018, 114 wRC+
Javy Baez, 2019, 114 wRC+
Adam Jones, 2015, 111 wRC+
Pablo Sandoval, 2014, 110 wRC+
Marlon Byrd, 2014, 110 wRC+

So in seven years, we have 12 seasons, by just eight hitters, that match the criteria (El Mago: of course). This is a rare thing, and it’s a needle that we’d prefer Nico not try and thread, particularly given the amount of power you otherwise see on that list.


This hitter needs a free starting job on this team?

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:50 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2019/10/17/nico-hoerners-big-league-debut-did-highlight-one-huge-area-he-needs-to-work-on/

In the last five seasons, here are the highest swinging rates on pitches out of the strike zone, min 80 PA:

Pedro Ciriaco, 2015, 53.2%
Juan Graterol, 2017, 52.0%
Jorge Alfaro, 2019, 50.4%
Tomas Nido, 2018, 48.9%
Kevin Pillar, 2019, 48.8%
Nico Hoerner, 2019, 48.6%
Francisco Pena, 2018, 48.5%
Salvador Perez, 2018, 48.4%
John Hicks, 2019, 48.3%


Hitters with wRC+ > 110, O-Swing > 42%, 2013-2019 (min 400 PA)

Javy Baez, 2018, 131 wRC+
Tim Anderson, 2019, 130 wRC+
Juan Uribe, 2014, 122 wRC+
Adam Jones, 2013, 119 wRC+
Pablo Sandoval, 2013, 117 wRC+
Corey Dickerson, 2017, 116 wRC+
Corey Dickerson, 2018, 115 wRC+
Eddie Rosario, 2018, 114 wRC+
Javy Baez, 2019, 114 wRC+
Adam Jones, 2015, 111 wRC+
Pablo Sandoval, 2014, 110 wRC+
Marlon Byrd, 2014, 110 wRC+

So in seven years, we have 12 seasons, by just eight hitters, that match the criteria (El Mago: of course). This is a rare thing, and it’s a needle that we’d prefer Nico not try and thread, particularly given the amount of power you otherwise see on that list.


This hitter needs a free starting job on this team?

Image

Eh, it’s 80 PAs. No doubt it’s a “problem” he needs to fix, but we’re talking like 15-20 PAs of him not chasing to swing the percentages to an acceptable level. There’s an elite hit/contact tool in there, I’m fine if we want to start him in AAA next year to work on things but he should be part of the plans to an extent. We can’t have stars at every position and we need more solid depth and contact hitters and he provides that.


Do they track O-Zone swing % in the minors? Would be interested to see where he was down there.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:43 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Eh, it’s 80 PAs. No doubt it’s a “problem” he needs to fix, but we’re talking like 15-20 PAs of him not chasing to swing the percentages to an acceptable level. There’s an elite hit/contact tool in there, I’m fine if we want to start him in AAA next year to work on things but he should be part of the plans to an extent. We can’t have stars at every position and we need more solid depth and contact hitters and he provides that.


Do they track O-Zone swing % in the minors? Would be interested to see where he was down there.


They want to lead the league in OBP not contact, and those 80 PAs - agreed not an ideal sample size - suggest that is not where Hoerner's skills are. I can agree he makes tons of contact and sure, he seems to do that better than the vast majority, but that alone doesn't make an elite hit tool. The made up rule on stars isn't a thing to me, of course you can it's just really hard to do but otherwise is ideal. One way it can't happen is by handing out free jobs to every guy on the farm we've heard of like they've been doing. Possibly lots of guys can provide solid depth and contact, for cheap, especially if potential quality is like the fourth priority. I do agree he should be part of plans to an extent and in October 2019 those plans shouldn't be about building or leaving him a super easy path to a starting job next year or beyond

Not sure on the MiL O-Zone thing
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:01 pm

MLB.com:

In his latest Cubs inbox, MLB.com's Jordan Bastian addressed whether the team could consider dealing catcher Willson Contreras, who has rated poorly as a pitch-framer, elevating Victor Caratini to the starting role and then signing a defensive-minded backup.

That seems more unlikely, considering Contreras is a 27-year-old whose 127 wRC+ led all catchers with at least 400 plate appearances in 2019. He also has three years of team control remaining, one more than Bryant, Báez and Schwarber.

"We've won a lot of games with Willson Contreras behind the plate," Epstein said. "We've had a lot of success pitching with Willson Contreras behind the plate. There are certainly areas he can continue to improve upon, but shame on us if we can't continue his development at the big league level, because this is like the most tooled-out, athletic catcher who has a huge heart and cares and wants his pitcher to succeed as well."


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Marte is arguably the best trade chip for a Pittsburgh club coming its worst record (69-93) since 2010. However, the consensus among the people within the industry MLB.com's Adam Berry has spoken with is that Marte will be with the Pirates at the start of next season.

"Since they don’t seem to have any interest in a full-scale rebuild, it’s likely that they will begin next year with Marte in center field, probably batting third behind Kevin Newman and Reynolds," Berry writes, predicting that a deal is more likely around next year's Trade Deadline.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:11 pm

I started to get all kinds of excited thinking there were maybe connecting rumors here, and then I saw it was a horsefeathering Tom post and I threw my computer out the window.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:13 pm

You're a Tom post
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Backtobanks » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:44 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:MLB.com:

In his latest Cubs inbox, MLB.com's Jordan Bastian addressed whether the team could consider dealing catcher Willson Contreras, who has rated poorly as a pitch-framer, elevating Victor Caratini to the starting role and then signing a defensive-minded backup.

That seems more unlikely, considering Contreras is a 27-year-old whose 127 wRC+ led all catchers with at least 400 plate appearances in 2019. He also has three years of team control remaining, one more than Bryant, Báez and Schwarber.

"We've won a lot of games with Willson Contreras behind the plate," Epstein said. "We've had a lot of success pitching with Willson Contreras behind the plate. There are certainly areas he can continue to improve upon, but shame on us if we can't continue his development at the big league level, because this is like the most tooled-out, athletic catcher who has a huge heart and cares and wants his pitcher to succeed as well."


Spoiler: show
Image


Marte is arguably the best trade chip for a Pittsburgh club coming its worst record (69-93) since 2010. However, the consensus among the people within the industry MLB.com's Adam Berry has spoken with is that Marte will be with the Pirates at the start of next season.

"Since they don’t seem to have any interest in a full-scale rebuild, it’s likely that they will begin next year with Marte in center field, probably batting third behind Kevin Newman and Reynolds," Berry writes, predicting that a deal is more likely around next year's Trade Deadline.


I suggested this trade quite awhile ago:
Trade Contreras, Almora, Short, and Underwood to Pittsburgh for Marte, Frazier, and Kela.
Trade Chatwood and Bote to Texas for Leclerc and Mazara.

Extend Quintana and sign a catcher (?), Maybin, Odorizzi, Liriano.

Rizzo
Frazier
Baez
Bryant
Schwarber
Marte
Heyward
Caratini

Darvish
Hendricks
Lester
Quintana
Odorizzi

Wick
Wieck
Kela
Leclerc
Ryan
Kimbrel
Liriano

Happ, Hoerner, Mazara, Maybin, Catcher (26th man- Mills, Alzolay, Norwood, Maples, Kemp, Descalso, Graveman)
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 23, 2019 2:20 am

Marte is a good player, but he's a tough fit on this team.
He has a severe and consistent platoon split. Over the last three years, he has a 76 wRC+ against lefties, and a 121 against righties. For reference, Schwarber is at 85 and 120. He was also a really bad CF last year defensively.

That doesn't mean you can't go after him, he's a good player, but you basically have to pair him with with a Kevin Pillar type. I feel like if you have to get a RH caddy and deal with so-so defense either way, I'd probably prefer shifting Heyward over and finding a full time RF.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Oct 23, 2019 3:43 am

Bertz wrote:Marte is a good player, but he's a tough fit on this team.
He has a severe and consistent platoon split. Over the last three years, he has a 76 wRC+ against lefties, and a 121 against righties. For reference, Schwarber is at 85 and 120. He was also a really bad CF last year defensively.

That doesn't mean you can't go after him, he's a good player, but you basically have to pair him with with a Kevin Pillar type. I feel like if you have to get a RH caddy and deal with so-so defense either way, I'd probably prefer shifting Heyward over and finding a full time RF.


Agreed. Plus between trade cost, his age, the length of his contract, and trade cost he just doesn't seem like an ideal target. Much prefer Bradley Jr. or Margot among guys rumored to be available this offseason through trade
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Derwood » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:55 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:You're a Tom post


Well that was uncalled for
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Backtobanks » Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:10 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:Marte is a good player, but he's a tough fit on this team.
He has a severe and consistent platoon split. Over the last three years, he has a 76 wRC+ against lefties, and a 121 against righties. For reference, Schwarber is at 85 and 120. He was also a really bad CF last year defensively.

That doesn't mean you can't go after him, he's a good player, but you basically have to pair him with with a Kevin Pillar type. I feel like if you have to get a RH caddy and deal with so-so defense either way, I'd probably prefer shifting Heyward over and finding a full time RF.


Agreed. Plus between trade cost, his age, the length of his contract, and trade cost he just doesn't seem like an ideal target. Much prefer Bradley Jr. or Margot among guys rumored to be available this offseason through trade


The only disadvantage is the trade cost. He is a much better hitter than either Margot or Bradley and his splits aren't any worse than theirs. The length of his contract pretty much lines up with the window for the core of the Cubs.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Tim » Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:40 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:Marte is a good player, but he's a tough fit on this team.
He has a severe and consistent platoon split. Over the last three years, he has a 76 wRC+ against lefties, and a 121 against righties. For reference, Schwarber is at 85 and 120. He was also a really bad CF last year defensively.

That doesn't mean you can't go after him, he's a good player, but you basically have to pair him with with a Kevin Pillar type. I feel like if you have to get a RH caddy and deal with so-so defense either way, I'd probably prefer shifting Heyward over and finding a full time RF.


Agreed. Plus between trade cost, his age, the length of his contract, and trade cost he just doesn't seem like an ideal target. Much prefer Bradley Jr. or Margot among guys rumored to be available this offseason through trade


The only disadvantage is the trade cost. He is a much better hitter than either Margot or Bradley and his splits aren't any worse than theirs. The length of his contract pretty much lines up with the window for the core of the Cubs.

When the trade cost is the best hiring catcher in baseball, it is a significant disadvantage
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:12 pm

Tim wrote:When the trade cost is the best hiring catcher in baseball


Man, look at this Galaxy Brained FO thinking outside of the box like that.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Oct 23, 2019 2:06 pm

The trade proposals are going to be obviously bad, you don't have to respond to them.
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