2020 roster

[Cubswin11]

If you can pull off Gray and Estevez for Contreras and no other MLB/top prospect assets, you have a lot of flexibility to imprvoe without needing 17 trades. Grandal + Shogo, Castro + Castellanos, etc

Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc.

I'm not sure the Rockies would make that trade. There's going to be a lot of competition for Gray alone without throwing Estevez into the deal.

Gray only has 2 years of control left vs 3 for Willy. Gray seems to have fallen out of some favor there plus the trade saves them some money (something they’re trying to do apparently). Estevez is like 4th or 5th in the pecking order for their bullpen arms, he should be attainable. The Rockies desperately need some bats, they only had 5 players provide positive offensive WAR last year, Wes Pearson (a pitcher) was their 6th most valuable offensive WAR player. Yonder Alonso had the 6th highest wRC+ for them, 2 of their top 11 players by wRC+ were pitchers, we think we have depth problems but they’re on another level.

With the money committed to Blackmon and Arenado they can’t really just bottom out and I’d assume they’ll keep trying to win, Contreras makes a lot of sense for them to add. Their catchers were 28th in MLB in WAR (-1.7), they combined to hit .239/.316/.349 with 9 Dongs and a 59 wRC+.

[mhuber92211]

Im confused with the Willy trade plan. Why wouldn the acquiring team just sign Grandal if that is the Cubs big plan there? I get that 3 more years of control and such but at a high prospect cost would make less sense unless the team is severely cash strapped which the braves and padres arent. Perhaps the roster crunch in SD would be helpful there but if Willy is traded, its likely to make Caratini the started with an aged vet to be backup. This wouldnt be a horrible play depending on the return for Willy.

I still think a trade to Philly for Bryant is more likely than Contreras.

[Cubswin11]

Im confused with the Willy trade plan. Why wouldn the acquiring team just sign Grandal if that is the Cubs big plan there? I get that 3 more years of control and such but at a high prospect cost would make less sense unless the team is severely cash strapped which the braves and padres arent. Perhaps the roster crunch in SD would be helpful there but if Willy is traded, its likely to make Caratini the started with an aged vet to be backup. This wouldnt be a horrible play depending on the return for Willy.

I still think a trade to Philly for Bryant is more likely than Contreras.

There’s more than one team that needs a catcher and other than Grandal there isn’t anyone close to Willy in value available. Willy is also only going to cost about $25 million over the next 3 years while Grandal will cost $40-50 million over those 3 years (plus probably take another year or two and more money after that) and is older. It’s not hard to see how there would be multiple teams interested in Willy that the report mentioned today, even with Grandal a FA. Realmuto was traded last offseason when Grandal was available via FA too.

[Backtobanks]

Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc.

I'm not sure the Rockies would make that trade. There's going to be a lot of competition for Gray alone without throwing Estevez into the deal.

Gray only has 2 years of control left vs 3 for Willy. Gray seems to have fallen out of some favor there plus the trade saves them some money (something they’re trying to do apparently). Estevez is like 4th or 5th in the pecking order for their bullpen arms, he should be attainable. The Rockies desperately need some bats, they only had 5 players provide positive offensive WAR last year, Wes Pearson (a pitcher) was their 6th most valuable offensive WAR player. Yonder Alonso had the 6th highest wRC+ for them, 2 of their top 11 players by wRC+ were pitchers, we think we have depth problems but they’re on another level.

With the money committed to Blackmon and Arenado they can’t really just bottom out and I’d assume they’ll keep trying to win, Contreras makes a lot of sense for them to add. Their catchers were 28th in MLB in WAR (-1.7), they combined to hit .239/.316/.349 with 9 Dongs and a 59 wRC+.

While I agree that Contreras makes sense for the Rockies (and almost any other team), I don't think the Rockies will be trying to contend next year.
From MLBTR: Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020.

[Bertz]

Im confused with the Willy trade plan. Why wouldn the acquiring team just sign Grandal if that is the Cubs big plan there? I get that 3 more years of control and such but at a high prospect cost would make less sense unless the team is severely cash strapped which the braves and padres arent. Perhaps the roster crunch in SD would be helpful there but if Willy is traded, its likely to make Caratini the started with an aged vet to be backup. This wouldnt be a horrible play depending on the return for Willy.

I still think a trade to Philly for Bryant is more likely than Contreras.

Money mostly, Grandal will make almost as much in year one of his deal as Willson will over the next three. Also, if you think you can "one weird trick" Contreras into better framing you just basically traded for JT Realmuto. Especially nowadays there's value in what a guy could be as opposed to what he currently is.

[Bertz]

While I agree that Contreras makes sense for the Rockies (and almost any other team), I don't think the Rockies will be trying to contend next year.
From MLBTR: Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020.

If that's true, it makes even more sense to trade a guy with 2 years of control left for one with 3, right?

[Backtobanks]

While I agree that Contreras makes sense for the Rockies (and almost any other team), I don't think the Rockies will be trying to contend next year.
From MLBTR: Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020.

If that's true, it makes even more sense to trade a guy with 2 years of control left for one with 3, right?

It would make more sense to trade Gray to a team willing to trade multiple top prospects with lots of years of control left.

[Cubswin11]

While I agree that Contreras makes sense for the Rockies (and almost any other team), I don't think the Rockies will be trying to contend next year.
From MLBTR: Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020.

If that's true, it makes even more sense to trade a guy with 2 years of control left for one with 3, right?

It would make more sense to trade Gray to a team willing to trade multiple top prospects with lots of years of control left.

I’d still be surprised if they prioritized guys who are 2-3+ years away when they have Blackmon, Arenado, Story, and Marquez around. I think a guy like Contreras has a lot of appeal to them, he’s still cheap and controlled for 3 years and helps immediately. But fine, then send them Bote/Happ, Ademan and like Corey Abott. Gray, as a target makes a lot of sense and we have the pieces to get him whether it’s a Contreras package or prospects and a lesser MLB piece.

[TomtheBombadil]

I’d still be surprised if they prioritized guys who are 2-3+ years away when they have Blackmon, Arenado, Story, and Marquez around.

Exactly. It's a virtual lock without even knowing who is else is on the table that Contreras over 3 years goes a longer way for them than some unnamed unknown prospects. What are the chances they *actually* get ML impact prospects ready to run roughshod on the league for 6 years? Look how the Samardzija trade turned out for the Cubs and that was landing a guy who ended up one of the best handful prospects in the game right after

I think if anyone's throwing an extra player in, probably a pitcher, it's the Rockies. Gray's not the AS (unless he was, I don't know), Contreras is the AS. Gray doesn't play everyday, Contreras plays everyday, Gray has 2 years, Contreras has 3 etc etc

[Cubswin11]

I’d still be surprised if they prioritized guys who are 2-3+ years away when they have Blackmon, Arenado, Story, and Marquez around.

Exactly. It's a virtual lock without even knowing who is else is on the table that Contreras over 3 years goes a longer way for them than some unnamed unknown prospects. What are the chances they *actually* get ML impact prospects ready to run roughshod on the league for 6 years? Look how the Samardzija trade turned out for the Cubs and that was landing a guy who ended up one of the best handful prospects in the game right after

I think if anyone's throwing an extra player in, probably a pitcher, it's the Rockies.Gray's not the AS (unless he was, I don't know), Contreras is the AS. Gray doesn't play everyday, Contreras plays everyday, Gray has 2 years, Contreras has 3 etc etc

That’s where Estevez comes in and I’d be fine if we had to throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood type on top of Contreras as well.

[TomtheBombadil]

That’s where Estevez comes in and I’d be fine if we had to throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood type on top of Contreras as well.

Oh true, if Estevez then go ahead and throw them a MiLer. I suspect full season pitching are the goners these days so the Millers, Thompsons, Sanders, Pattersons, etc...whoever got press during the season basically

[Backtobanks]

That’s where Estevez comes in and I’d be fine if we had to throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood type on top of Contreras as well.

Oh true, if Estevez then go ahead and throw them a MiLer. I suspect full season pitching are the goners these days so the Millers, Thompsons, Sanders, Pattersons, etc...whoever got press during the season basically

So a team that gave up 958 runs is going to trade their best starter and their best reliever for another hitter?

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR: The Baltimore Orioles primary goal for the near-term remains adding as much talent to the organization as possible, primarily in the minor leagues. That said, GM Mike Elias does have a winter checklist in this, his first full offseason as GM (the Orioles hired him on November 16th of last year). Namely, the Orioles will be looking for pitching and a veteran shortstop, per MASNSports’ Roch Kubatko.

How about Russell plus a prospect (or 2) for Villar?

[Cubswin11]

From MLBTR: The Baltimore Orioles primary goal for the near-term remains adding as much talent to the organization as possible, primarily in the minor leagues. That said, GM Mike Elias does have a winter checklist in this, his first full offseason as GM (the Orioles hired him on November 16th of last year). Namely, the Orioles will be looking for pitching and a veteran shortstop, per MASNSports’ Roch Kubatko.

How about Russell plus a prospect (or 2) for Villar?

I’m all for getting rid of Russell but I hate Villar, he might suck. Plus he’s expensive.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR: The Baltimore Orioles primary goal for the near-term remains adding as much talent to the organization as possible, primarily in the minor leagues. That said, GM Mike Elias does have a winter checklist in this, his first full offseason as GM (the Orioles hired him on November 16th of last year). Namely, the Orioles will be looking for pitching and a veteran shortstop, per MASNSports’ Roch Kubatko.

How about Russell plus a prospect (or 2) for Villar?

I’m all for getting rid of Russell but I hate Villar, he might suck. Plus he’s expensive.

He made $1.4 million more than Russell this year. He will probably get a decent raise next year where Russell probably won't though.

[TomtheBombadil]

Hmmmm....Dillon Maples has allowed 2(!!!) HRs in the PCL between 2018-2019 with 154 Ks in 81.2 IP and ERAs well below league average. Dakota Mekkes quietly has just 7 in 80.2 to 102 Ks...2020 contributors? I give Mekkes has a serious shot at joining the 40 man in ten days or whatever it is...

-----

MLB.com citing batting average and K rate* as to why Whit Merrifield needs to be the Cubs' dream acquisition sounds like they've got their fingers on the pulse of Theo's thinking

*Yes, I know the Cubs should strike out less but not for the sake of striking out less

[Cubswin11]

From MLBTR: The Baltimore Orioles primary goal for the near-term remains adding as much talent to the organization as possible, primarily in the minor leagues. That said, GM Mike Elias does have a winter checklist in this, his first full offseason as GM (the Orioles hired him on November 16th of last year). Namely, the Orioles will be looking for pitching and a veteran shortstop, per MASNSports’ Roch Kubatko.

How about Russell plus a prospect (or 2) for Villar?

I’m all for getting rid of Russell but I hate Villar, he might suck. Plus he’s expensive.

He made $1.4 million more than Russell this year. He will probably get a decent raise next year where Russell probably won't though.

Russell is gonna be non-tendered. I’d rather do that and save the money than swap him out for Villar. There’s no extracting value out of him .

[Post Count Padder]

Bleed cubbie blue /sb nation went hog wild on an off-season prediction. I'll just put the link here

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2019/11 ... -2020-cubs

Lotsa trades and such and I don't totally hate it. Still don't love trading Willy

[PackLandVA]

Fun read, thanks for posting.

[Named After Maddux]

Cubs offseason plan:
Trades:
Willson Contreras, Jose Quintana for Blake Snell, Josh Lowe, Joe Ryan (net cost -$9 million)

Spoiler: show

if we’re targeting a controllable SP for one of our core players I’d be intrigued with looking at the Rays. There’s been reports that C is a top priority this offseason. Snell is on a really solid contract, but is about to start increasing salaries and had an inconsistent year with injuries. I’d take the leap.

David Bote, Albert Almora, Corey Abbot, Yovanny Cruz for Jon Gray (net cost + $3 million)

Spoiler: show

This feels light. It likely needs Ian Happ instead of Almora, who likely has little value. Maybe a Bote for Kyle Freeland trade would work for both teams.

Robel Garcia for Nick Pivetta

Free Agent Signings: I used Fangraphs crowdsource for contracts except for a few instances. I don’t think Akiyama comes stateside for $3 million a year even with the foot injury.

Jason Castro for 2 years/$12 million
Drew Pomeranz for 2 years/$14 million (with 3rd year option at $8 million or $2 million buy-out)
Shogo Akiyama 3 years/$15 million
Pedro Strop for 1 year/$2.5 million
Asdrubal Cabrera 2 years/$12 million
Jarrod Dyson for 1 year/$1.5 million
Total addition of: $23 million

Pitching staff:
SP) Hendricks
SP) Darvish
SP) Gray
SP) Snell
SP) Lester

RP) Kimbrel
RP) Pomeranz
RP) Wick
RP) Strop
RP) Wieck
RP) Chatwood
RP) Kyle Ryan
RP) Pivetta/Mills/Triple AAA filler

Position Players:
2B) Cabrera/Hoerner
3B) Bryant
1B) Rizzo
SS) Baez
C) Caratini/Castro
LF) Schwarber
CF) Akiyama
RF) Heyward

B) Castro/Caratini
B) Hoerner/Cabrera
B) Happ
B) Descalso
B) Kemp
B) Dyson

[TomtheBombadil]

David Bote, Albert Almora, Corey Abbot, Yovanny Cruz for Jon Gray (net cost + $3 million)

Spoiler: show

This feels light. It likely needs Ian Happ instead of Almora, who likely has little value. Maybe a Bote for Kyle Freeland trade would work for both teams.

Maybe that Rockies trade is more Jeff Hoffman than Jon Gray? Hoffman would be among my favorite buy lows if he wasn't a TJ guy, but in an offseason they walk away with a CY winner already might be worth a kicking the tires on for Bote

Snell for Contreras seems fun, probably take Brujan over Lowe since I think Lowe ends up at 1B and that's occupado

[Named After Maddux]

Snell for Contreras seems fun, probably take Brujan over Lowe since I think Lowe ends up at 1B and that's occupado

I agree, I think Snell and Contreras is intriguing. The great thing about the Rays is there’s a good amount of non-Franco prospects that are enticing. Brujan, Liberatore, and Baz super exciting.

I went with Lowe because Emily Walden had this to say about him in the AZL:

Emily Waldon: You're sneaky, Sally. Since I'm out in Arizona, I'll bite. He's been sound since I got here. I'm a fan of his fluidity. I think it comes from confidence and understanding the development process takes time.

. Also BA described him as likely to stay in CF. But if you’re seeing 1B in his future I get why he’s not as interesting.

Ideally, to me, a Contreras trade brings back a starter and a CF or contact oriented 2B. Luis Urias has been interesting as well and I read somewhere that the Padres would view him as available.i don’t know what I think the backbone of a Contreras to SDP deal looks like, but since Gore is off the table, it feels more volume than high impact.

[TomtheBombadil]

I agree, I think Snell and Contreras is intriguing. The great thing about the Rays is there’s a good amount of non-Franco prospects that are enticing. Brujan, Liberatore, and Baz super exciting.

I went with Lowe because Emily Walden had this to say about him in the AZL:

Emily Waldon: You're sneaky, Sally. Since I'm out in Arizona, I'll bite. He's been sound since I got here. I'm a fan of his fluidity. I think it comes from confidence and understanding the development process takes time.

. Also BA described him as likely to stay in CF. But if you’re seeing 1B in his future I get why he’s not as interesting.

Ideally, to me, a Contreras trade brings back a starter and a CF or contact oriented 2B. Luis Urias has been interesting as well and I read somewhere that the Padres would view him as available.i don’t know what I think the backbone of a Contreras to SDP deal looks like, but since Gore is off the table, it feels more volume than high impact.

Yeah, I think I undersold Lowe there and hard af tbh. No way he's a 1B anytime soon, pretty sure he has a 1B prospect brother Nate, and I'd take him over Brujan just on that. horsefeathers - now that I've looked I'm as into him as Drew Waters as a CF prospect buy

I'd give the like or heart or rep w/e it is but I'm at 666 doled out and considering devoting my life to Satan starting with that so can't

[Cubswin11]

This is a really good article and sums up/overviews things really well.

[CubinNY]

I’d still be surprised if they prioritized guys who are 2-3+ years away when they have Blackmon, Arenado, Story, and Marquez around.

Exactly. It's a virtual lock without even knowing who is else is on the table that Contreras over 3 years goes a longer way for them than some unnamed unknown prospects. What are the chances they *actually* get ML impact prospects ready to run roughshod on the league for 6 years? Look how the Samardzija trade turned out for the Cubs and that was landing a guy who ended up one of the best handful prospects in the game right after

I think if anyone's throwing an extra player in, probably a pitcher, it's the Rockies. Gray's not the AS (unless he was, I don't know), Contreras is the AS. Gray doesn't play everyday, Contreras plays everyday, Gray has 2 years, Contreras has 3 etc etc

I’d take a Wilson/Blackmon trade.