2020 roster

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:14 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:He could play CF.


Merrifield's played 47 ML games in CF, 134 as a pro, and will be 31 next year

~370 innings there at +3 DRS, UZR liked him in 2018 but not 2019. He hasn’t rated out well in RF (-7) but rates out well in LF (+7). I don’t think he’d be a liability out there, especially if we shift more and then just sign a glove first CF like Billy Hamilton for late innings. He also could push Nico to CF if you don’t want Whit out there.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:18 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:~370 innings there at +3 DRS, UZR liked him in 2018 but not 2019. He hasn’t rated out well in RF (-7) but rates out well in LF (+7).


These numbers make you optimistic about trading for a 31 YO 2B to become the starting CF of the Cubs? I hate the Cubs too but they should at least win at baseball while I hate them
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby The Logan » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:21 pm

What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:21 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:~370 innings there at +3 DRS, UZR liked him in 2018 but not 2019. He hasn’t rated out well in RF (-7) but rates out well in LF (+7).


These numbers make you optimistic about trading for a 31 YO 2B to become the starting CF of the Cubs? I hate the Cubs too but they should at least win at baseball while I hate them

I’m not acting like he’d be an elite fielder out there but I think he’d be plenty adequate.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:24 pm

The Logan wrote:What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?

Elite contact ability (which is an area we lack), good athleticism/speed, and ability to play multiple positions, MIF and probably the OF. I don’t think he’s ever gonna be a star (he’s probably a 2-3 win player on average with maybe a peak year in the 4s) but I think he can be a solid player who can move around and diversify the offense a bit. At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Brian » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:38 pm

Fine with trading Nico in the right circumstance, Whit Merrifield is so far from that.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:42 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I’m not acting like he’d be an elite fielder out there


Who says you are? I have no idea how that would you optimistic, so optimistic that you trade the team's best prospect for him, about getting an adequate situation by moving a 31 YO off the position he's an All Star
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:42 pm

The Logan wrote:What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?


If you need a reason to believe, he is a college bat that this front office drafted in the first round even when that wasn't his consensus value.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby squally1313 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:45 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
The Logan wrote:What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?


If you need a reason to believe, he is a college bat that this front office drafted in the first round even when that wasn't his consensus value.


Not sure if this is supposed to be sarcastic.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:46 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.


Why is this a good outcome? He's generally considered a top 50 prospect in baseball right now and a positive outcome would be using him to save a few million off the back of the roster....Yippee skippee

Trent Giambrone, Vimael Machin, maybe even Zack Short can probably do the same thing and it's a way less sinister act by the org
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby squally1313 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:47 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.


Why is this a good outcome? He's generally considered a top 50 prospect in baseball right now and a positive outcome would be using him to save a few million off the back of the roster....Yippee skippee

Trent Giambrone and Vimael Machin can probably do the same thing and it's a way less sinister act by the org


Cubswin11 wrote:At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.


Cubswin11 wrote:At worst
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:49 pm

squally1313 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.


Why is this a good outcome? He's generally considered a top 50 prospect in baseball right now and a positive outcome would be using him to save a few million off the back of the roster....Yippee skippee

Trent Giambrone and Vimael Machin can probably do the same thing and it's a way less sinister act by the org


Cubswin11 wrote:At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.


Cubswin11 wrote:At worst


It's not an "we could end up in this really dumb situation where we lost tremendous 2020+ value through inaction yet again" kind of "at worst"
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:51 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
The Logan wrote:What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?


If you need a reason to believe, he is a college bat that this front office drafted in the first round even when that wasn't his consensus value.


Not sure if this is supposed to be sarcastic.


Not at all. It's not proof positive he's going to be a star, but their lack of misses at the top of drafts when drafting college hitters is a validation of their ability to get MLB caliber players from that cohort.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:54 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.


Why is this a good outcome? He's generally considered a top 50 prospect in baseball right now and a positive outcome would be using him to save a few million off the back of the roster....Yippee skippee

Trent Giambrone, Vimael Machin, maybe even Zack Short can probably do the same thing and it's a way less sinister act by the org

I mean I said it’s a worst case outcome, there’s still value in producing cheap bench/role, second division starter type players internally vs having to pay millions for them. And yeah as a top 50 prospect you hope for more but even for top 50 prospects turning in to a useful bench/role player is a positive outcome, a lot of those guys won’t even make it as any type of MLB player in the next 2-5 years.

And again, especially for this year and next, Hoerner brings something in his contact ability that the team (as currently constructed) sucks at. I see value in that, even if he’s more of a platoon/pinch hitter/couple days a week starter. I also have no idea what the horsefeathers your sinister comment means.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby squally1313 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:59 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
If you need a reason to believe, he is a college bat that this front office drafted in the first round even when that wasn't his consensus value.


Not sure if this is supposed to be sarcastic.


Not at all. It's not proof positive he's going to be a star, but their lack of misses at the top of drafts when drafting college hitters is a validation of their ability to get MLB caliber players from that cohort.


I guess I'm not sure what type of value you're assigning to Hoerner, but if we're comparing him to Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber, both of whom were top 10 picks and in theory more valuable/better players, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And yes, I know, Kris Bryant, but he was in no way a reach.

Basically I think people keep ignoring the Albert Almora sized elephant in the room when they look at Hoerner's (admittedly limited) numbers. I think Hoerner can be a poor mans version of a poor mans Zobrist, but I haven't really seen anything beyond that.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:03 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I mean I said it’s a worst case outcome, there’s still value in producing cheap bench/role, second division starter type players internally vs having to pay millions for them. And yeah as a top 50 prospect you hope for more but even for top 50 prospects turning in to a useful bench/role player is a positive outcome, a lot of those guys won’t even make it as any type of MLB player in the next 2-5 years.


Yes, and it's not enough to cover blowing 2020+ on. I value producing those kind of players plenty, name names even, and am plenty happy to give it to guys who fully qualify for that kind of opportunity - like the Giambrones and Shorts who float in and out year to year - and not guys who are *currently top 50 prospects in baseball right now right now during what, since it's happening now, can be considered the most important offseason of Epstein and Friend's respective careers*

The immediate opportunity cost on missing on the evaluation of Hoerner, and as we've seen with Almora, Russell, and friends the Cubs are more likely to miss up than down, is *massive*
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:04 pm

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:13 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1192924513622728704?s=21


Padres and Braves step right up, please....Who else do I not hate for Contreras...the Indians if Theo can get Lindor *and* Kluber...uuuum...the Mets...His contract situation might even make the Rays do something they normally wouldn't do...Rockies have a great park for him and some players...the Angels could give up Adell for a top win now player with a great contract situation...
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:24 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Not sure if this is supposed to be sarcastic.


Not at all. It's not proof positive he's going to be a star, but their lack of misses at the top of drafts when drafting college hitters is a validation of their ability to get MLB caliber players from that cohort.


I guess I'm not sure what type of value you're assigning to Hoerner, but if we're comparing him to Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber, both of whom were top 10 picks and in theory more valuable/better players, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And yes, I know, Kris Bryant, but he was in no way a reach.

Basically I think people keep ignoring the Albert Almora sized elephant in the room when they look at Hoerner's (admittedly limited) numbers. I think Hoerner can be a poor mans version of a poor mans Zobrist, but I haven't really seen anything beyond that.


Happ and Schwarber have combined for about 14 fWAR in just under 3000 PAs, that rate of production is more than fine with me as an outcome for Hoerner. Yes, there are some parallels to Almora, but 1) those are going to happen with any high contact player who isn't an Altuve-level talent, and that's where leaning on Hoerner's ability to adapt from being a high level college player plus ever-improving organizational instruction can give room for optimism.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:28 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1192924513622728704?s=21


Padres and Braves step right up, please....Who else do I not hate for Contreras...the Indians if Theo can get Lindor *and* Kluber...uuuum...the Mets...His contract situation might even make the Rays do something they normally wouldn't do...Rockies have a great park for him and some players...the Angels could give up Adell for a top win now player with a great contract situation...

I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:38 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1192924513622728704?s=21


Padres and Braves step right up, please....Who else do I not hate for Contreras...the Indians if Theo can get Lindor *and* Kluber...uuuum...the Mets...His contract situation might even make the Rays do something they normally wouldn't do...Rockies have a great park for him and some players...the Angels could give up Adell for a top win now player with a great contract situation...

I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal.


If you can pull off Gray and Estevez for Contreras and no other MLB/top prospect assets, you have a lot of flexibility to imprvoe without needing 17 trades. Grandal + Shogo, Castro + Castellanos, etc
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby squally1313 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:42 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Not at all. It's not proof positive he's going to be a star, but their lack of misses at the top of drafts when drafting college hitters is a validation of their ability to get MLB caliber players from that cohort.


I guess I'm not sure what type of value you're assigning to Hoerner, but if we're comparing him to Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber, both of whom were top 10 picks and in theory more valuable/better players, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And yes, I know, Kris Bryant, but he was in no way a reach.

Basically I think people keep ignoring the Albert Almora sized elephant in the room when they look at Hoerner's (admittedly limited) numbers. I think Hoerner can be a poor mans version of a poor mans Zobrist, but I haven't really seen anything beyond that.


Happ and Schwarber have combined for about 14 fWAR in just under 3000 PAs, that rate of production is more than fine with me as an outcome for Hoerner. Yes, there are some parallels to Almora, but 1) those are going to happen with any high contact player who isn't an Altuve-level talent, and that's where leaning on Hoerner's ability to adapt from being a high level college player plus ever-improving organizational instruction can give room for optimism.


But there’s nothing to suggest Hoerner has the same level of talent. He was drafted later, his numbers aren’t nearly as good. He can play a very valuable position, but we already have a shortstop. Theo and Co get credit for him looking like a major leaguer, but he’s a clear step down from two guys who have been debated as future pieces of this team for the last year.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:27 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Padres and Braves step right up, please....Who else do I not hate for Contreras...the Indians if Theo can get Lindor *and* Kluber...uuuum...the Mets...His contract situation might even make the Rays do something they normally wouldn't do...Rockies have a great park for him and some players...the Angels could give up Adell for a top win now player with a great contract situation...

I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal.


If you can pull off Gray and Estevez for Contreras and no other MLB/top prospect assets, you have a lot of flexibility to imprvoe without needing 17 trades. Grandal + Shogo, Castro + Castellanos, etc

Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:32 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal.


If you can pull off Gray and Estevez for Contreras and no other MLB/top prospect assets, you have a lot of flexibility to imprvoe without needing 17 trades. Grandal + Shogo, Castro + Castellanos, etc

Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc.


I'm not sure the Rockies would make that trade. There's going to be a lot of competition for Gray alone without throwing Estevez into the deal.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Deeg » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:52 pm

The Logan wrote:What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?


Obviously not a lot of Almora, cause that's what I see.
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