2020 roster

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Fri Dec 06, 2019 1:49 am

Backtobanks wrote:
Bertz wrote:IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:

Willson - 2.6
Vic - 2.0
Castro - 1.7

Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.


All of these trade proposals involving all stars (Contreras, Bryant, etc.) talk about getting young players back, which is fine if those young players are going to contribute to the Cubs at the major league level in 2020 and 2021. I'm not interested in 18-20 year-olds that "might" be really good in 2023-2024.


Me neither. When I picture a Willson trade, I picture getting back a starter who is at worst half season from being ready and a reliever who I would be comfortable giving 8th inning work on opening weekend. To use the Padres as an example, as they're my preferred destination, I'd look at packages like Cal Quantrill + Andres Munoz or Adrian Morejon + Matt Strahm.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Dec 06, 2019 1:52 am

Post-Grandal I've also been wondering if the Cubs are better offer keeping Willson Contreras. I think the baseline with star for non-star trades is that the team getting the star wins out and the team selling loses plus the speculation hasn't been overly enthusiastic on what he'd bring back. That Seattle trade didn't even guarantee the Mariners a prospect - an A ball pitcher and a comp pick. End of the day he's still a 20+ HR / .350 OBP catcher in his 20s making next to nothing and it's not like he couldn't be traded with 2 years or fewer left...Like I have zero interest in trading him for a couple of pre-injured or low ceiling or niche-y pitchers...A plug and play young CF or SP with clear upside is what I'd want along with other stuff since very likely not getting a fully realized talent
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby sneakypower » Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:17 am

Bertz wrote:IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:

Willson - 2.6
Vic - 2.0
Castro - 1.7

Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.

those steamer projections are a total trainwreck though; half of the top 10 there might not even be starters

meanwhile reigning 2-time all-star is squarely backup status, just a complete mess
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby sneakypower » Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:19 am

the wise man bowed his head solemnly and spoke: "theres actually zero difference between good & bad catchers. you imbecile. you horsefeathering moron"
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:07 am

sneakypower wrote:
Bertz wrote:IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:

Willson - 2.6
Vic - 2.0
Castro - 1.7

Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.

those steamer projections are a total trainwreck though; half of the top 10 there might not even be starters

meanwhile reigning 2-time all-star is squarely backup status, just a complete mess


I agree the defensive numbers don't pass the smell test, which is why I zeroed them out. Or do you just not like projections in general?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:30 pm



This is like the only high upside move anyone is willing to tie the Cubs to this offseason so it just popped up as a new story with new details just kidding
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:55 pm

An offseason the Cubs don't trade anyone from the coredationleus:

Quintana to the Padres for Margot

Bote, Caratini, Albert Almora, Adbert Alzolay, Kohl Franklin, Riley Thopson to the Blue Jays for Trent Thornton and Reese McGuire

FAs: Gerrit Cole, that White Sox 2B who won the GG

MiL FAs: Brandon Morrow RHP, Nick Tropeano RHP, Bryan Mitchell RHP, Wei-Yin Chen LHP, Tony Cingrani, Tyler Thornburg, Ryan Butcher LHRP,

C: Contreras, McGuire
1B: Rizzo, Contreras
2B: WS GG guy, Happ, Hoerner, Baez
SS: Baez, Hoerner
3B: Bryant, Baez

RF: Heyward, Bryant
CF: Margot, Happ, Heyward
LF: Schwarber, Happ, Margot

Cole
Hendricks
Darvish
Lester
Thornton

Kimbrel
Morrow
Chatwood
Wick
Ryan
Mills
???
???
???
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:17 pm

I appreciate your commitment to respond to news that the Cubs can barely afford to sign a Minor League FA with a scenario that boils down to “trading Quintana frees up enough to get Cole, right?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:22 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I appreciate your commitment to respond to news that the Cubs can barely afford to sign a Minor League FA with a scenario that boils down to “trading Quintana frees up enough to get Cole, right?


I believe those comments in the news read very different. The news was that the Cubs and Castellanos are very unlikely to match up and the Cubs are telling lower tier FAs that they need to clear salaries. I see Cole as a higher tier FA and believe the comment was most directed at the Akiyamas, Hernandezs, and 1-2 win P/SPs of FA
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Named After Maddux » Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:50 pm

I'll definitely start by saying that I do not agree with trading Bryant. However the more rumors that come out the more it looks like it is a legitimate possibility. Assuming you trade Bryant and sign Rendon (which they should) or obtain a young 3B option in the trade, I wonder about a Bote/Todd Frazier platoon.
David Bote against RHP: wOBA .349, wRC+ 115
Todd Frazier against LHP: wOBA .382, wRC+ 142

It's not Bryant and it won't be, but maybe it's tolerable for a year.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:14 pm

Named After Maddux wrote:I'll definitely start by saying that I do not agree with trading Bryant. However the more rumors that come out the more it looks like it is a legitimate possibility. Assuming you trade Bryant and sign Rendon (which they should) or obtain a young 3B option in the trade, I wonder about a Bote/Todd Frazier platoon.
David Bote against RHP: wOBA .349, wRC+ 115
Todd Frazier against LHP: wOBA .382, wRC+ 142

It's not Bryant and it won't be, but maybe it's tolerable for a year.


The reporting could be wrong, but nothing in the Bryant trade news I’ve seen indicates that a big FA move would come on the heels of it. Either way, there’s no outcome with Cole, Rendon, or Strasburg.

How to backfill Bryant depends on the specifics of what he’s traded for, bit I vote that if you’re willing to trust Bote v. RHP, that you just give him the job. He’s a good defender there and lets you focus resources elsewhere.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Backtobanks » Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:23 pm

I don't understand why people bring up trading Quintana for salary relief, when the most obvious choice is trading Chatwood. He makes more and would be easier to replace than Quintana.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:23 pm

Backtobanks wrote:I don't understand why people bring up trading Quintana for salary relief, when the most obvious choice is trading Chatwood. He makes more and would be easier to replace than Quintana.


Hmmm, yep it’s a mystery
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Named After Maddux » Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:38 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Named After Maddux wrote:I'll definitely start by saying that I do not agree with trading Bryant. However the more rumors that come out the more it looks like it is a legitimate possibility. Assuming you trade Bryant and sign Rendon (which they should) or obtain a young 3B option in the trade, I wonder about a Bote/Todd Frazier platoon.
David Bote against RHP: wOBA .349, wRC+ 115
Todd Frazier against LHP: wOBA .382, wRC+ 142

It's not Bryant and it won't be, but maybe it's tolerable for a year.


The reporting could be wrong, but nothing in the Bryant trade news I’ve seen indicates that a big FA move would come on the heels of it. Either way, there’s no outcome with Cole, Rendon, or Strasburg.

How to backfill Bryant depends on the specifics of what he’s traded for, bit I vote that if you’re willing to trust Bote v. RHP, that you just give him the job. He’s a good defender there and lets you focus resources elsewhere.


Sorry TT. Read it twice and still missed it. I meant assuming they trade Bryant and DON’T sign Rendon or obtain another 3B option I’d be okay without Bote/Frazier.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:41 pm

Named After Maddux wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Named After Maddux wrote:I'll definitely start by saying that I do not agree with trading Bryant. However the more rumors that come out the more it looks like it is a legitimate possibility. Assuming you trade Bryant and sign Rendon (which they should) or obtain a young 3B option in the trade, I wonder about a Bote/Todd Frazier platoon.
David Bote against RHP: wOBA .349, wRC+ 115
Todd Frazier against LHP: wOBA .382, wRC+ 142

It's not Bryant and it won't be, but maybe it's tolerable for a year.


The reporting could be wrong, but nothing in the Bryant trade news I’ve seen indicates that a big FA move would come on the heels of it. Either way, there’s no outcome with Cole, Rendon, or Strasburg.

How to backfill Bryant depends on the specifics of what he’s traded for, bit I vote that if you’re willing to trust Bote v. RHP, that you just give him the job. He’s a good defender there and lets you focus resources elsewhere.


Sorry TT. Read it twice and still missed it. I meant assuming they trade Bryant and DON’T sign Rendon or obtain another 3B option I’d be okay without Bote/Frazier.


Oh I know that’s what you meant. What I’m getting at is if I think Bote is for real enough to trust him v. RHP, I won’t bother getting a platoon partner for the pitchers Bote already has platoon advantage against, even if their career numbers are a bit better.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Named After Maddux » Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:46 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Named After Maddux wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
The reporting could be wrong, but nothing in the Bryant trade news I’ve seen indicates that a big FA move would come on the heels of it. Either way, there’s no outcome with Cole, Rendon, or Strasburg.

How to backfill Bryant depends on the specifics of what he’s traded for, bit I vote that if you’re willing to trust Bote v. RHP, that you just give him the job. He’s a good defender there and lets you focus resources elsewhere.


Sorry TT. Read it twice and still missed it. I meant assuming they trade Bryant and DON’T sign Rendon or obtain another 3B option I’d be okay without Bote/Frazier.


Oh I know that’s what you meant. What I’m getting at is if I think Bote is for real enough to trust him v. RHP, I won’t bother getting a platoon partner for the pitchers Bote already has platoon advantage against, even if their career numbers are a bit better.


And I can buy that as well. I’m curious to know the internal evaluations of someone like Bote (I suppose we’ll likely find out the gist this winter). He’s someone that played a decent portion of the season with a broken toe and seemed like he made changes later in the year, but he could completely flop as well. I suppose Frazier or someone of that same level should at least be brought in since there aren’t too many internal replacements if Bote flops in that scenario. I’d agree that spending resources on the small side of a platoon isn’t ideal.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:47 pm

Backtobanks wrote:I don't understand why people bring up trading Quintana for salary relief, when the most obvious choice is trading Chatwood. He makes more and would be easier to replace than Quintana.

Come to think of it, with all this talk of trading guys to save money. Why don’t they just trade Heyward, he makes the most and is easiest to replace.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:57 pm

Okay let's put lipstick on this pig. Say PTR is demanding we get under the tax, which means we basically have to trade Bryant. What's the least depressing path forward? Something like this?

Trades:

- KB to the Braves for Pache, Wright, and Minter (or equivalent)
- Contreras+Q to SD for Margot, Munoz, and Morejon
- Trade Chatwood (let's say we have to attach Tyson Miller to fully clear his salary)

That brings payroll to ~42M under the tax level

Signings
- Backfill Contreras (~5M for Jason Castro?)
- Sign your favorite FA 2B (~7M for Cesar Hernandez?)
- Sign a backup 3B type (~5M for Asdrubal Cabrera?)
- Sign Treinen or Betances to a 1 Yr Pillow Contract (~10M)
- Extend Javy (~10M)

Leaves ~5M for the deadline

SP - Darvish/Kyle/Lester/Wright/Mills
Iowa SP - Morejon/Alzolay/Abbott/Cotton/Rea
BP - Kimbrel/Munoz/Treinen/Wick/Ryan/Minter/Iowa Shuttle/LRP (Underwood to start)
Lineup - Hernandez/Rizzo/Baez/Schwarber/Bote/Caratini/Heyward/Margot
Bench - Cabrera/Happ/Castro/Descalso/Kemp

The lineup is....depressing. That being said it's still probably middle of the pack offensively, and the defense is comfortably above average. Pache and Nico should be up by midseason, which probably won't move the offensive needle much beyond lengthening the bench,but would move the defense up to elite.

The pitching is legitimately fun and exciting. The rotation might be a little bumpy the first ~6 weeks while figuring out which guys should be in the last two spots, but there's 7-8 guys that I'd be legitimately cool handing starts.

The bullpen is AWESOME. If Kimbrel or Treinen bounces back it's Yankees-esque, if both do it's the best in baseball. Also everyone but those two and Underwood have minor league options, so you can cycle guys in and out based on effectiveness.

The 2021 offseason is no longer apocolyptic, so next year the team could resume going after fun guys like Betts. The team's probably favored to win the Central in 2020, but the margin would be negligible.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:53 pm

Bertz wrote:Okay let's put lipstick on this pig. Say PTR is demanding we get under the tax, which means we basically have to trade Bryant. What's the least depressing path forward?


- Contreras and Q for Lamet, Margot, Hedges, and Munoz
- Bote for Chirinos
- Zobrist for one year
- If you can squeeze him in(maybe by dumping Descalso and Almora), sign Brock Holt

Zobrist/Bryant/Rizzo/Baez/Schwarber/(Happ/Margot)/Heyward/(Caratini/Hedges); bench adds Holt(otherwise Descalso/Hoerner) and Kemp

Hendricks/Darvish/Lester/Lamet/Chirinos

Kimbrel/Wick/Ryan/Chatwood/Wieck/Munoz, rest are Iowa/NRI shuttle

This plan leans hard on the pitching infrastructure improvements bearing fruit, since Chatwood, Cotton, and Alzolay are backstopping a rotation unlikely to give you 900 IP. We’ve set that up for maximum success by stacking positive UZRs up and down the roster and going all in on framing. Munoz is hopefully what we hoped Carl would turn into, but if not we’re going to leave the variance with the pitching where it’s the least certain anyway. I’m pretty sure if you have less than 15 million being paid to Zobrist, Holt, Almora, and Descalso that this fits, but with no margin for error and I could’ve miscalculated.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:12 am

My blow it up the budget is coming offseason:

Baez to the Angels for Jo Adell
Bryant to the Braves for Fried, Anderson, Waters, Wilson, and Wright
Contreras to the Mets for Ronny Mauricio
Schwarber to the Indians for Triston McKenzie and Bradley Zimmer
Quintana to the Marlins for low minors prospects

FAs: Russell Martin (C), Cesar Hernandez (2B), Jose Peraza (SS), various MiL deals to pitchers

C: Martin/Caratini (~$4-5 million tops)
1B: Rizzo (still cheap, but getting suspiciously older should have been looking for outs two years ago)
2B: Hernandez/Hoerner/Happ ($4-5 million tops)
SS: Peraza/Hoerner ($3 million tops)
3B: Bote ($3 million)

RF: Heyward (most of the cap space)/Zagunis/Happ
CF: Happ/Hoerner (~$2 million?)
LF: Zimmer/Happ/Zagunis

Hendricks
Lester
Darvish
Fried
Wright

There's quite a bit of money and assets spent on these 5 + Kimbrel and Chatwood, can't say the Cubs aren't trying. The great thing is that if this team isn't competing at the deadline it shouldn't be hard to trade Kimbrel, Hendricks, or even Chatwood. Maybe even Morrow can nab a top 100 guy if healthy. Unfortunately Darvish's contract might have the Cubs stuck, definitely same with Lester

Kimbrel
Chatwood
Wick
Ryan
Morrow
????
????
???
????

Give this team a couple years and they'll be just as loaded as the 2015 team was if not a little more. For the time being the org regains it's famed flexibility, replenishes a farm that is now among the best in baseball with room to get better through a deadline clean, might gain even more cap space if they ask politely for Lester to voluntarily retire, and yeah basically be one of the best teams in baseball again by 2022 or so
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:16 am

^^Ricketts (and fans who care deeply about billionaires keeping their $$) approves of that plan.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:27 am

^^ It would take alot of people working together to make this happen which fits sending 25 people to the winter meetings
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:28 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:My blow it up the budget is coming offseason:

Baez to the Angels for Jo Adell
Bryant to the Braves for Fried, Anderson, Waters, Wilson, and Wright
Contreras to the Mets for Ronny Mauricio
Schwarber to the Indians for Triston McKenzie and Bradley Zimmer
Quintana to the Marlins for low minors prospects

FAs: Russell Martin (C), Cesar Hernandez (2B), Jose Peraza (SS), various MiL deals to pitchers

C: Martin/Caratini (~$4-5 million tops)
1B: Rizzo (still cheap, but getting suspiciously older should have been looking for outs two years ago)
2B: Hernandez/Hoerner/Happ ($4-5 million tops)
SS: Peraza/Hoerner ($3 million tops)
3B: Bote ($3 million)

RF: Heyward (most of the cap space)/Zagunis/Happ
CF: Happ/Hoerner (~$2 million?)
LF: Zimmer/Happ/Zagunis

Hendricks
Lester
Darvish
Fried
Wright

There's quite a bit of money and assets spent on these 5 + Kimbrel and Chatwood, can't say the Cubs aren't trying. The great thing is that if this team isn't competing at the deadline it shouldn't be hard to trade Kimbrel, Hendricks, or even Chatwood. Maybe even Morrow can nab a top 100 guy if healthy. Unfortunately Darvish's contract might have the Cubs stuck, definitely same with Lester

Kimbrel
Chatwood
Wick
Ryan
Morrow
????
????
???
????

Give this team a couple years and they'll be just as loaded as the 2015 team was if not a little more. For the time being the org regains it's famed flexibility, replenishes a farm that is now among the best in baseball with room to get better through a deadline clean, might gain even more cap space if they ask politely for Lester to voluntarily retire, and yeah basically be one of the best teams in baseball again by 2022 or so

This is a pretty good let the MF’er burn the hell down for a few years plan. Certainly no half measures, which probably is a good thing. Pick a lane go full measures instead of being stuck in the middle.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:06 am

Cubswin11 wrote:This is a pretty good let the MF’er burn the hell down for a few years plan. Certainly no half measures, which probably is a good thing. Pick a lane go full measures instead of being stuck in the middle.


Yep, really opens things up. Once Bryant is out don't really want any of these guys getting ideas and thinking one has a lane to the Ricketts' family fortune. Something getting lost in the shuffle is that the Ricketts had to create at least 24 jobs for this winter meetings, which had to eat a good chunk of this offseason's budget and further shows their commitment to fielding a great product

This kind of offseason would also allow the Marquee Network to focus on programming beyond the Cubs and become a more complete network. They could give bringing back improv comedy to network TV a go, give a Youtube channel host their own last night show to compete with Conan, and produce serious documentaries that rebut climate change. Use those first couple years to build a great programming lineup and reputation, let that timeline sync up with the new revamped farm systerm, and plop the next gen Cubs right in between wildly popular Friends and The Office reruns
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Gmoney23 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:33 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:My blow it up the budget is coming offseason:

Baez to the Angels for Jo Adell
Bryant to the Braves for Fried, Anderson, Waters, Wilson, and Wright
Contreras to the Mets for Ronny Mauricio
Schwarber to the Indians for Triston McKenzie and Bradley Zimmer
Quintana to the Marlins for low minors prospects

FAs: Russell Martin (C), Cesar Hernandez (2B), Jose Peraza (SS), various MiL deals to pitchers

C: Martin/Caratini (~$4-5 million tops)
1B: Rizzo (still cheap, but getting suspiciously older should have been looking for outs two years ago)
2B: Hernandez/Hoerner/Happ ($4-5 million tops)
SS: Peraza/Hoerner ($3 million tops)
3B: Bote ($3 million)

RF: Heyward (most of the cap space)/Zagunis/Happ
CF: Happ/Hoerner (~$2 million?)
LF: Zimmer/Happ/Zagunis

Hendricks
Lester
Darvish
Fried
Wright

There's quite a bit of money and assets spent on these 5 + Kimbrel and Chatwood, can't say the Cubs aren't trying. The great thing is that if this team isn't competing at the deadline it shouldn't be hard to trade Kimbrel, Hendricks, or even Chatwood. Maybe even Morrow can nab a top 100 guy if healthy. Unfortunately Darvish's contract might have the Cubs stuck, definitely same with Lester

Kimbrel
Chatwood
Wick
Ryan
Morrow
????
????
???
????

Give this team a couple years and they'll be just as loaded as the 2015 team was if not a little more. For the time being the org regains it's famed flexibility, replenishes a farm that is now among the best in baseball with room to get better through a deadline clean, might gain even more cap space if they ask politely for Lester to voluntarily retire, and yeah basically be one of the best teams in baseball again by 2022 or so

This is a pretty good let the MF’er burn the hell down for a few years plan. Certainly no half measures, which probably is a good thing. Pick a lane go full measures instead of being stuck in the middle.


I dont get the blow it up plans. The whole tanking till 2015 was to build a core (supposedly save $ during the tank) then use that saved $ to pay that badass core. So when this team thats averaged 94 wins.per season cost controlled core comes to FA finally then its time.for Ricketts to payup..
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