Backtobanks wrote:Bertz wrote:IMO the Contreras trade is more about how solid Vic is and the prospect of getting some ML ready young pitching than it is about any deficiency of Willson's. Here are the Steamer projected WAR/450 values for each guy assuming neutral defense:
Willson - 2.6
Vic - 2.0
Castro - 1.7
Because catchers have limited PT, you're basically looking at 450 PAs of your primary guy and 225 of your backup in a typical year, so Willson+Vic projects at 3.6 WAR and Vic+Castro at 2.8. We're talking about roughly a win of difference even when assuming that framing is complete hokum. If we were an AL team that could DH him and squeeze out another 100 PAs it may be different, but as is the dropoff looks small enough to be worth nabbing a few fun young pitchers.
All of these trade proposals involving all stars (Contreras, Bryant, etc.) talk about getting young players back, which is fine if those young players are going to contribute to the Cubs at the major league level in 2020 and 2021. I'm not interested in 18-20 year-olds that "might" be really good in 2023-2024.
Me neither. When I picture a Willson trade, I picture getting back a starter who is at worst half season from being ready and a reliever who I would be comfortable giving 8th inning work on opening weekend. To use the Padres as an example, as they're my preferred destination, I'd look at packages like Cal Quantrill + Andres Munoz or Adrian Morejon + Matt Strahm.