2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:43 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Dude, MLB teams have been structuring deals this way for years with option years being “not guaranteed.” It has nothing to do with your thinking the MLB is being NFL’ized.


My mistake, MLB contracts reported with a huge distinction between guaranteed money and total value is a tale as told as time. Nothing NFL-y about that. My mistake, nothing to see here and the owners are great guys baseball's going great I mean Will Smith signed yesterday even with a QO so see trust
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:47 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Dude, MLB teams have been structuring deals this way for years with option years being “not guaranteed.” It has nothing to do with your thinking the MLB is being NFL’ized.


My mistake, MLB contracts reported with a huge distinction between guaranteed money and total value is a tale as told as time. Nothing NFL-y about that. My mistake, nothing to see here and the owners are great guys baseball's going great I mean Will Smith signed yesterday even with a QO so see trust

I don’t give a horsefeathers how they’re reported, the fact is they’ve been structured that way for a long time with option years. This is nothing new or nefarious.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:54 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:or nefarious.


Even if you think the direction contracts and contract languages are moving is nothing new, fair for all I care or that matters, to think it's not nefarious is...probably better for long term mental health and apparently short
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:49 pm

Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)
2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)
2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)
2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)
2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby squally1313 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:01 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)
2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)
2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)
2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)
2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)


Well for 2018, if trading TLS doesn't qualify then signing Descalso definitely doesn't qualify, at least in hindsight. Could probably just leave last offseason off the list, at least until Kimbrel.

I think you'll see transactions continue to get pushed back. Even something like the potential Morrow signing, it was hinted that there have been good discussions but they want to wait until after 12/1 because of 40 man roster considerations.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:25 pm

squally1313 wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)
2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)
2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)
2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)
2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)


Well for 2018, if trading TLS doesn't qualify then signing Descalso definitely doesn't qualify, at least in hindsight. Could probably just leave last offseason off the list, at least until Kimbrel.

I think you'll see transactions continue to get pushed back. Even something like the potential Morrow signing, it was hinted that there have been good discussions but they want to wait until after 12/1 because of 40 man roster considerations.


Yeah...but I do think the trading him away was more notewrothy to us than the trading for him. I was more looking at the first time we actually had a noteworthy transaction to discuss. I do remember us discussing the trading for TLS, but it was more about us trading Vizcaino. By the time TLS became a world champion who went AWOL during the season, then later became a board meme, trading him away was noteworthy enough.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:01 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)
2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)
2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)
2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)
2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)


I do expect that we see some activity earlier this year. I think the broad strokes of the offseason is likely to be:
1. Trade Willson for pitching
2. Use FA and/or small trades to complement the primary group of position players
3. Possible additional pitching moves

Because these tracks are largely independent, and because we are not shopping at the top of the market. I see no reason to not expect activity before or during the winter meetings.

On the flipside Contreras might not be traded for *just* pitching (e.g. Manuel Margot), so it could still muk things up. Also, if a KB trade is legitimately being explored, that DEFINITELY holds everything else up.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:37 pm

For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Named After Maddux » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:47 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.


He's what Almora should be. He's relatively cheap salary-wise, strong defensive CF, and hits well against LHP. Last year he mashed lefties (.886 OPS, wRC+ of 139 against LHP in 2019). He also had a strong prospect pedigree.

If his cost is high, I'd stay away. But if he could be acquired as a second player in a trade (like for Quintana) or third player in a Contreras trade then I'd like it. He is an ideal platoon bat with Heyward.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:49 pm

The Twins met with Zack Wheeler’s representatives at Jet Sports during last week’s GM Meetings, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North reports in his latest podcast (audio link). Minnesota also has interest in free-agent lefty Madison Bumgarner, much as they did prior to the July 31 trade deadline. The Twins filled one spot in the rotation when Jake Odorizzi accepted the qualifying offer, but they still have virtually no certainty beyond Odorizzi and fellow righty Jose Berrios.


The Twins are a pretty great landing spot for any of the top FA pitcherst this offseason and I like the fit with Bumgarner. Berrios, Bumgarner, Wheeler, and Odorizzi would be one of the better 1-4 in the league, or they could skip all that and go get Cole
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:50 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.


Pros: he's a CF, he's young, he's cheap and controlled.

Cons: he's not very good.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:50 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.


Good contact, good D, hits lefties well...he's what Almora is supposed to be basically. Certainly not a guy you pencil in as a starter (though young enough it could still happen), but the OF is inevitably gonna have a bunch of platoons/timeshares in 2020 and he complements the current group well.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:58 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:For someone like me who needs things explained, can anybody tell me why I'm supposed to like Margot? He doesn't seem to hit for average or power and doesn't get on base.


The sales pitch for Margot:

- He's entering his prime at 25, and his plate discipline(walk rate and O-Swing) took a step forward last year
- He has pedigree, entering 2017 he was a consensus Top 25 overall prospect and had made it through AAA
- Theo's red sox signed him out of the DR (I suspect this is mostly trivia, but it doesn't hurt)
- He's a strong defender, career +6 UZR and +9 DRS
- He's very capable against LHP, .331 wOBA career and .383 last year
- As a Padre, you can dream that on a different team where he's not playing 100 games in Petco + ATT + Dodger Stadium, he'll be in a greater position to succeed
- He did well enough last year that you can at least see the good version of Almora as a likely floor, but not so well that he's likely to command a ransom in trade
- He makes above average contact, which balances the roster slightly

There's probably some other nuanced points to make(like he's strangely not great on fastballs, which could be construed as an inability to make the leap or an easier mechanical/approach fix than picking up sliders), but that's the long and short of it.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:01 pm

If you're optimistic about him leaving Petco and getting some different coaching, Margot might hit for average and put up solid OBPs with some surprising power and more contact than most Cubs hitters to go with GG caliber defense in CF

If the Cubs traded for him I'd like him to be brought along like they did Baez early on - lots of PAs but as the primary backup to the entire OF, starts against LHHs, etc. Hopefully he hits and in 2021 looks more like a starter
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:17 pm

Ask a question, get some quality knowledge. Thanks everyone.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:50 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:If you're optimistic about him leaving Petco and getting some different coaching, Margot might hit for average and put up solid OBPs with some surprising power and more contact than most Cubs hitters to go with GG caliber defense in CF



His stats show he hits better and with more power at Petco.

Home - .245/.313/.400/.713
Away - .251/.290/.388/.678
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bull » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:58 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Out of complete boredom, I looked up what date the Cubs made their first significant transaction in the contention years. Not sure if acquiring or trading Seal Boy is a significant transaction so I included the next transaction in those years as well.

2018: November 29 (Traded Tommy La Stella to Angels) or December 18 (Signed Daniel Descalso)
2017: December 7 (Signed Tyler Chatwood)
2016: November 29 (Signed Jon Jay)
2015: December 8 (Signed John Lackey/Ben Zobrist, Traded Starlin to Yankees)
2014: November 16 (Traded Arodys Vizcaino to Braves for TLS) or December 9 (Traded for Miguel Montero)

ahh, the Tommy LaStella era. Greatest time in the history of Cubs baseball.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby David » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:09 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:If you're optimistic about him leaving Petco and getting some different coaching, Margot might hit for average and put up solid OBPs with some surprising power and more contact than most Cubs hitters to go with GG caliber defense in CF



His stats show he hits better and with more power at Petco.

Home - .245/.313/.400/.713
Away - .251/.290/.388/.678


in 2019, margot had a wRC+ of 69 at home (nice) and 95 on the road, FWIW. wOBA of .270 at home vs .319 on road.

his walk rate at home was almost double his road walk rate though, which is weird.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:20 pm

David wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:If you're optimistic about him leaving Petco and getting some different coaching, Margot might hit for average and put up solid OBPs with some surprising power and more contact than most Cubs hitters to go with GG caliber defense in CF



His stats show he hits better and with more power at Petco.

Home - .245/.313/.400/.713
Away - .251/.290/.388/.678


in 2019, margot had a wRC+ of 69 at home (nice) and 95 on the road, FWIW. wOBA of .270 at home vs .319 on road.

his walk rate at home was almost double his road walk rate though, which is weird.

Given his pretty extreme splits vs LHP and RHP it would be interesting to see the breakdown if he faced a disproportionate amount of one or the other home vs road to maybe explain some of the home/road splits.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:52 pm



It's not hard to see how a guy with Shogo's profile can flame out (just look at Jon Jay), but man I'm gonna be real ticked if we pass on him at 3/15.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:06 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/statuses/1196551198511435776

It's not hard to see how a guy with Shogo's profile can flame out (just look at Jon Jay), but man I'm gonna be real ticked if we pass on him at 3/15.

Yup, that’s no money. Non-tendering Russell and Almora basically makes it a net even (or even saves us some) money on the AAV. His profile, on the surface, seems like a great fit and the CF market is non-existent. The only issue I have with him, as I’ve mentioned before is he’s a LHH so finding a RHH who can handle CF is still a need but maybe we can lower the bar to a Pillar type if he’s non-tendered or a Lagares, Broxton, Maybin type on a cheap deal. Margot would still be a great add with Akiyama if he’s reasonably available.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:20 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/statuses/1196551198511435776

It's not hard to see how a guy with Shogo's profile can flame out (just look at Jon Jay), but man I'm gonna be real ticked if we pass on him at 3/15.

Yup, that’s no money. Non-tendering Russell and Almora basically makes it a net even (or even saves us some) money on the AAV. His profile, on the surface, seems like a great fit and the CF market is non-existent. The only issue I have with him, as I’ve mentioned before is he’s a LHH so finding a RHH who can handle CF is still a need but maybe we can lower the bar to a Pillar type if he’s non-tendered or a Lagares, Broxton, Maybin type on a cheap deal. Margot would still be a great add with Akiyama if he’s reasonably available.


I mentioned earlier that Maybin would be a good pickup no matter what we end up doing with CF. I think he would be a veteran bat off the bench and could fill in anywhere in the OF.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:26 pm



Interesting. Like Brett says I doubt it's the pitcher, as adding a third swingman with no minor league options to the roster seems....suboptimal. Kikuchi seems unlikely but could make sense depending on the makeup of the rest of the bench. So that likel leaves Tsutsugo. He gets compared frequently to Schwarber, so backfilling after a Kyle trade is possible. It's also possible they just like his bat and will make it work like they did with Castellanos. It's even more palatable with the extra bench spot in 2020. A bench of:

Vic
Happ (as the backup CF)
Bote
Tsutsugo
TBD 2B Option (Nico eventually starting there)

Would rock. It lacks the defensive minded backup CF option you'd probably like, but otherwise checks all the boxes.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:40 pm

Correct me if I"m wrong but Tsusugo is supposedly barely even passable at 1B right? Unless they're moving Rizzo I just don't see how it could work.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:56 pm

I think it's RHP Shun Yamaguchi. First because he's actually pretty interesting as a pitcher and also because the team he plays for in the NPB are the Yankees of Japan

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb- ... offseason/

Although Japanese baseball officials declined to give out the Sawamura Award for the league's top pitcher this year -- no pitcher was deemed worthy of the award -- Yamaguchi was among those considered, and he's been among the best pitchers in Japan the last two seasons. Here are his recent numbers (WAR via DeltaGraphs):

...

The Giants play in Japan's Central League, the non-DH league, and this year the Central League averages were a 3.90 ERA with a 20.3 percent strikeout walk and an 8.7 percent walk rate. Yamaguchi was quite a bit better than the league averages at preventing earned runs and striking out hitters this past season.
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