2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:32 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Super hot take: I have minimal interest in a Baez extension

I’m in the same boat. It would have to be in the neighborhood of the Bogaerts extension for me to do it, anything much more (or certainly if he’s thinking 150-200+) I’m good letting it play out.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:53 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:goony and Tom are basically twins.


Don't insult the man, more like best friends
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:58 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Super hot take: I have minimal interest in a Baez extension

I’m in the same boat. It would have to be in the neighborhood of the Bogaerts extension for me to do it, anything much more (or certainly if he’s thinking 150-200+) I’m good letting it play out.

I hope that Tom RIckets is required to write out a check for half a million dollars made out to "El Mago" before every meal until his demise. Anyone who does not agree is not a fan of the Chicago Cubs and/or fun. Extend Javy for insane money for insane years. Now.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:01 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I’m in the same boat. It would have to be in the neighborhood of the Bogaerts extension for me to do it, anything much more (or certainly if he’s thinking 150-200+) I’m good letting it play out.


I actually think, especially if they can't land another superstar between now and next spring, they should trade him. Alot of those trade scenarios for Bryant I trash are a little more appealing for Baez
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:27 pm

My desire to keep Javy around as long as possible is based 90% on the fact that he's so insanely likable and fun to watch. Not sure he'd be as fun to watch when his quick reaction times and impressive range fade a little with age. Please smart baseball people prove me wrong, but he doesn't appear to be a player that stands to age well.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby squally1313 » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:28 pm

UMFan83 wrote:My desire to keep Javy around as long as possible is based 90% on the fact that he's so insanely likable and fun to watch. Not sure he'd be as fun to watch when his quick reaction times and impressive range fade a little with age. Please smart baseball people prove me wrong, but he doesn't appear to be a player that stands to age well.

Yeah most of my arguments for a Javy extension, you could probably do the same thing for a Rizzo extension, so I always thought it was weird that a Javy extension was assumed and a Rizzo extension had no chance/was really dumb.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:36 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:goony and Tom are basically twins.


So Tom is the good one?
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:45 pm

UMFan83 wrote:My desire to keep Javy around as long as possible is based 90% on the fact that he's so insanely likable and fun to watch. Not sure he'd be as fun to watch when his quick reaction times and impressive range fade a little with age. Please smart baseball people prove me wrong, but he doesn't appear to be a player that stands to age well.


My understanding, and I don't think I've seen a refreshed study on it so it could be a weird steroid era anachronism, is that super athletic players age far more gracefully. The idea being that these guys have multiple way of contributing, so if one area falls off they still provide value in others. When Miguel Cabrera dropped to being a league average hitter last year, he was completely unplayable. When Javy is 35, he'll probably still be solid defensive 2B/3B who mashes lefties.

This could be out of date though, for the same reasons that aging curves have started skewing younger and younger.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:11 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
Ding Dong Johnson wrote:goony and Tom are basically twins.


So Tom is the good one?


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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:14 pm

Athleticism is great, definitely helps with aging, but the offensive skillset is really off the beaten path. The best path to aging well is great plate discipline, which is why Bryant and Rizzo have always been the dudes who make this work and why Zobrist could leadoff for a championship squad and top of the league offense in his late 30's. Hell, it took 15 years before Miguel Cabrera really really started to slip because of his wide and elite offensive skillset inside the batter's box. Baez's plate discipline is just bad - most whiffs in the league the past three years, low walks, low OBP, etc.

The guy I've loosly comped him to offensively, swapping a little extra power for Soriano's inefficent speed, since Kane County is Alfonso Soriano. One thing that separates the two is Baez is a SS and elite defender, more room to come down there, but there's alot of dependence on the gifts of youth like bat speed and elite defense to get things done

If you get a guy who combines elite athleticism along with elite plate discipline and power, go ahead and pay that guy. It's why I'm super pro Bryant and even Rizzo, both guys who did it all as yoots and have the plate discipline to keep the highest value stuff (OBP and power) in play longer
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:21 pm

Bertz wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:My desire to keep Javy around as long as possible is based 90% on the fact that he's so insanely likable and fun to watch. Not sure he'd be as fun to watch when his quick reaction times and impressive range fade a little with age. Please smart baseball people prove me wrong, but he doesn't appear to be a player that stands to age well.


My understanding, and I don't think I've seen a refreshed study on it so it could be a weird steroid era anachronism, is that super athletic players age far more gracefully. The idea being that these guys have multiple way of contributing, so if one area falls off they still provide value in others. When Miguel Cabrera dropped to being a league average hitter last year, he was completely unplayable. When Javy is 35, he'll probably still be solid defensive 2B/3B who mashes lefties.

This could be out of date though, for the same reasons that aging curves have started skewing younger and younger.

I’m more worried about Javy’s offensive profile eroding long term (high Ks, low BB, low Contact%, quick twitch bat speed, base running, etc) than I am about defense. I have faith he can be fine and even plus defensively somewhere well in to his 30s (2B/3B/LF). It’s an extreme but look how quickly Carlos Gomez fell off.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:34 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:My desire to keep Javy around as long as possible is based 90% on the fact that he's so insanely likable and fun to watch. Not sure he'd be as fun to watch when his quick reaction times and impressive range fade a little with age. Please smart baseball people prove me wrong, but he doesn't appear to be a player that stands to age well.


My understanding, and I don't think I've seen a refreshed study on it so it could be a weird steroid era anachronism, is that super athletic players age far more gracefully. The idea being that these guys have multiple way of contributing, so if one area falls off they still provide value in others. When Miguel Cabrera dropped to being a league average hitter last year, he was completely unplayable. When Javy is 35, he'll probably still be solid defensive 2B/3B who mashes lefties.

This could be out of date though, for the same reasons that aging curves have started skewing younger and younger.

I’m more worried about Javy’s offensive profile eroding long term (high Ks, low BB, low Contact%, quick twitch bat speed, base running, etc) than I am about defense. I have faith he can be fine and even plus defensively somewhere well in to his 30s (2B/3B/LF). It’s an extreme but look how quickly Carlos Gomez fell off.


my love for Javy is so strong that it couples with my hate for the Ricketts in a way that I have no problem with the idea of watching El Mago swat at mosquitoes with his bat for the next 15 years in a Cubs uni

its not like ownership is going to buy a WS, and we've seemingly forgotten how to build a farm system anyway
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Brian » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:36 pm

If you sign Javy for 8 seasons that's through age 34.

I'm not sure if it's a good comparison but i thought of Alfonso Soriano as a high K low BB guy, and at age 34 season he put up an .818 OPS and just for fun at 36 he put up an .821 OPS.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:42 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:My desire to keep Javy around as long as possible is based 90% on the fact that he's so insanely likable and fun to watch. Not sure he'd be as fun to watch when his quick reaction times and impressive range fade a little with age. Please smart baseball people prove me wrong, but he doesn't appear to be a player that stands to age well.


My understanding, and I don't think I've seen a refreshed study on it so it could be a weird steroid era anachronism, is that super athletic players age far more gracefully. The idea being that these guys have multiple way of contributing, so if one area falls off they still provide value in others. When Miguel Cabrera dropped to being a league average hitter last year, he was completely unplayable. When Javy is 35, he'll probably still be solid defensive 2B/3B who mashes lefties.

This could be out of date though, for the same reasons that aging curves have started skewing younger and younger.

I’m more worried about Javy’s offensive profile eroding long term (high Ks, low BB, low Contact%, quick twitch bat speed, base running, etc) than I am about defense. I have faith he can be fine and even plus defensively somewhere well in to his 30s (2B/3B/LF). It’s an extreme but look how quickly Carlos Gomez fell off.


Surprisingly, it's not a thing (again with the very large caveat about how the steroid-era affects these sorts of studies)

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/ ... ing-curves

There is the general background on the creation and output of a hitter's aging curve. I will now take aging curves further and create them for the different types of players:

    Fast players -The criteria I used were hitters with 25 or more stolen bases and at least eight triples (103 total players including Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Carl Crawford).

    Young players with old-player skills (high K, BB and HR) - These players exhibit power at an early age with high number of walks and strikeouts. The criteria I used were hitters who are 25 years old or younger with more than 20 HRs, a K/PA greater than 15% and a BB/PA greater than 5% (73 total players including Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki).

    Players with no plate discipline - Walk rate less 5% and K% greater than 20% from those with more than 200 plate appearances (148 players including Carlos Gonzalez, Jeff Francoeur, Ryan Doumit).


1. Fast and young-old players have a higher peak than the rest of the population.
2. Young-old players peak at age 25, which is one year earlier than the general population.
3. Fast players age extremely well from their peaks at 26 to 31, then they lose on average fewer then five runs over five seasons. Young-old players lose more than 10 runs in the same time span.
4. Players with no plate discipline age similarly to the overall population.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:45 pm

Brian wrote:I'm not sure if it's a good comparison but i thought of Alfonso Soriano as a high K low BB guy, and at age 34 season he put up an .818 OPS and just for fun at 36 he put up an .821 OPS.


He was also done being a impact player by 31. The idea isn't that Baez will be completely toast in his 30s, but that he'll drop from stardom

----

Comparing how he'll age to the overall population has the flaw of assuming the overall population is in line for a 9 figure extension or FA contract but really extremely few are
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby cl smooth » Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:18 pm



*grain of salt*
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby CoolHandLuke » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:10 am

I wish the grain of salt was big enough to prevent you from accessing your keyboard and posting a link to that clown.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Outshined_One » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:48 pm

cl smooth wrote:

*grain of salt*


Yeahno.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:37 pm

Outshined_One wrote:
cl smooth wrote:

*grain of salt*


Yeahno.


This actually got trending on Twitter last night, and actual reporters addressed it not being real.

I've really started to worry about the serious gullibility of people in our society. Although, based on current world events, I guess i should not be.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:43 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Outshined_One wrote:
cl smooth wrote:

*grain of salt*


Yeahno.


This actually got trending on Twitter last night, and actual reporters addressed it not being real.

I've really started to worry about the serious gullibility of people in our society. Although, based on current world events, I guess i should not be.

For every 20 MLBIntel’s there’s a WetButt, Katy Perry Booty Hole and NoCode.
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:23 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Outshined_One wrote:
Yeahno.


This actually got trending on Twitter last night, and actual reporters addressed it not being real.

I've really started to worry about the serious gullibility of people in our society. Although, based on current world events, I guess i should not be.

For every 20 MLBIntel’s there’s a WetButt, Katy Perry Booty Hole and NoCode.


Sure, but it takes two seconds to look over an account and tell which is which or at least which one is for sure [expletive].
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby cl smooth » Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:42 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
This actually got trending on Twitter last night, and actual reporters addressed it not being real.

I've really started to worry about the serious gullibility of people in our society. Although, based on current world events, I guess i should not be.

For every 20 MLBIntel’s there’s a WetButt, Katy Perry Booty Hole and NoCode.


Sure, but it takes two seconds to look over an account and tell which is which or at least which one is for sure [expletive].


you're absolutely right.

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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:26 pm

cl smooth wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:For every 20 MLBIntel’s there’s a WetButt, Katy Perry Booty Hole and NoCode.


Sure, but it takes two seconds to look over an account and tell which is which or at least which one is for sure [expletive].


you're absolutely right.



that reads like a Fox news headline
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby Bear Cub » Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:26 pm

Hey, the Cat is back!
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Re: 2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:30 pm

Bear Cub wrote:Hey, the Cat is back!


Is he still reporting that the Cubs are still in the mix to sign Harper?
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