White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

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White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:03 pm

4/73

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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Bertz » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:13 pm

Good for maximizing our return on a Willson trade, and good as a bellwether for the free agent market. Bad obviously for the hope of us doing a cool "trade Willson for awesome stuff and still come out the other end better at catcher" scenario.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Guancous » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:13 pm

Willson Contreras will earn $4.5 million in 2020.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby sneakypower » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:17 pm

Bertz wrote:Good for maximizing our return on a Willson trade, and good as a bellwether for the free agent market. Bad obviously for the hope of us doing a cool "trade Willson for awesome stuff and still come out the other end better at catcher" scenario.

Willson is awesome stuff
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Tryptamine » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:17 pm

4/73 for a 31 year old catcher seems like quite a lot even if Grandal is very good. That's going to be a disaster in a year or two.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby squally1313 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:25 pm

This pretty much eliminates any desire I have to trade Contreras.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:28 pm

I believe this is the largest FA contract the White Sox have ever given out.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:29 pm

I'm jealous but luckily there's bigger fish available
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Derwood » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:31 pm

Gets him off the Brewers, so that's good enough for me
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Tryptamine » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:35 pm

squally1313 wrote:This pretty much eliminates any desire I have to trade Contreras.


I don't know why. I'm really not sure there's any production drop off from Contreras to Caratini/Chirinos.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Andy » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:35 pm

UMFan83 wrote:I believe this is the largest FA contract the White Sox have ever given out.

Correct, eclipses Abreu in total money by $5M.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Tryptamine » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:40 pm

It will be interesting to see if any teams actually trade good pieces for James McCann and his completely unsustainable .359babip last year. I can't imagine they'd use him as a backup.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:57 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
squally1313 wrote:This pretty much eliminates any desire I have to trade Contreras.


I don't know why. I'm really not sure there's any production drop off from Contreras to Caratini/Chirinos.


OTOH trading Contreras to sign Chirinos is pretty pointless. Chirinos probably isn't a worthwhile upgrade on defense and his 2020 salary will probably be higher than Contreras'
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:02 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
squally1313 wrote:This pretty much eliminates any desire I have to trade Contreras.


I don't know why. I'm really not sure there's any production drop off from Contreras to Caratini/Chirinos.


OTOH trading Contreras to sign Chirinos is pretty pointless. Chirinos probably isn't a worthwhile upgrade on defense and his 2020 salary will probably be higher than Contreras'

How can you say it is pointless without knowing the return for Contreras? Looking at the catcher position in a vacuum, sure, the Cubs are better with Contreras in 2020 than with any other available catcher. But what are they gaining elsewhere?
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby squally1313 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:06 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
squally1313 wrote:This pretty much eliminates any desire I have to trade Contreras.


I don't know why. I'm really not sure there's any production drop off from Contreras to Caratini/Chirinos.


OTOH trading Contreras to sign Chirinos is pretty pointless. Chirinos probably isn't a worthwhile upgrade on defense and his 2020 salary will probably be higher than Contreras'


I mean, if you ignore what you would be receiving in return for Contreras, sure.

Regardless of that, I'm still betting on Contreras vs a combination along those lines. Neither of those two really strike me as a dynamic starter, and I'm not aware of some big platoon splits that would lead into getting the best out of both of them.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:18 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:How can you say it is pointless without knowing the return for Contreras?


The whole idea behind trading Contreras is built on the team being able to improve their defense and pitching around a better defensive catcher, usually a really cheap group of FAs. In the case of Chirinos he's going to cost more than $6.75 million he made last year already more than 2020 Contreras, isn't a slam dunk better framer or defender than Contreras, isn't as good a hitter, and is way older. Just seems like a sloppy way to replace Contreras
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby squally1313 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:34 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Irrelevant Dude wrote:How can you say it is pointless without knowing the return for Contreras?


The whole idea behind trading Contreras is built on the team being able to improve their defense and pitching around a better defensive catcher, usually a really cheap group of FAs. In the case of Chirinos he's going to cost more than $6.75 million he made last year already more than 2020 Contreras, isn't a slam dunk better framer or defender than Contreras, isn't as good a hitter, and is way older. Just seems like a sloppy way to replace Contreras


That is not the whole idea, or really anywhere close to the whole idea.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:46 pm

squally1313 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Irrelevant Dude wrote:How can you say it is pointless without knowing the return for Contreras?


The whole idea behind trading Contreras is built on the team being able to improve their defense and pitching around a better defensive catcher, usually a really cheap group of FAs. In the case of Chirinos he's going to cost more than $6.75 million he made last year already more than 2020 Contreras, isn't a slam dunk better framer or defender than Contreras, isn't as good a hitter, and is way older. Just seems like a sloppy way to replace Contreras


That is not the whole idea, or really anywhere close to the whole idea.


I mean that's a significant part of it. Obviously you need something significant in return for Contreras to make the whole idea worthwhile, but the fulcrum is that it's easier to replace Contreras's production with players who cost less to acquire than Contreras's return would. And the reason that's possible comes down to defense and potentially knock-on effects of better defense/defense-related aspects.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby squally1313 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:53 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
The whole idea behind trading Contreras is built on the team being able to improve their defense and pitching around a better defensive catcher, usually a really cheap group of FAs. In the case of Chirinos he's going to cost more than $6.75 million he made last year already more than 2020 Contreras, isn't a slam dunk better framer or defender than Contreras, isn't as good a hitter, and is way older. Just seems like a sloppy way to replace Contreras


That is not the whole idea, or really anywhere close to the whole idea.


I mean that's a significant part of it. Obviously you need something significant in return for Contreras to make the whole idea worthwhile, but the fulcrum is that it's easier to replace Contreras's production with players who cost less to acquire than Contreras's return would. And the reason that's possible comes down to defense and potentially knock-on effects of better defense/defense-related aspects.


But there's nothing to suggest Caratini is a good defensive catcher, right? He was a negative value defensively until 2019, and even then it's not overly impressive. I get that he's already on the roster, but any sort of platoon with Caratini getting 80+ starts isn't one centered around defense.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:54 pm

squally1313 wrote:That is not the whole idea, or really anywhere close to the whole idea.


Sure, but I also don't think one of the ideal outcomes is to end up spending more on the catcher position for a lateral at best move. Since we're in this salary capped every-dollar-counts nonsense reality then the extra handful+ million spent on Chirinos pretty much eats up all the 2020 salary cap benefits trading Contreras gets and he's not an impactful or certain enough player (neither will anyone Contreras is traded for) to make that work without the Cubs getting really lucky all over the place. While the Cubs nailing this offseason in general relies on luck, this requires now even more luck and probably money the owners don't want to spend

If the baseball world was cooler and Chirinos meant Cole somehow, yeah, but more likely spending on Chirinos would be a reason they wouldn't sign Cole rather than....So yeah...Pass even without really knowing what the Contreras return is
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:57 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
That is not the whole idea, or really anywhere close to the whole idea.


I mean that's a significant part of it. Obviously you need something significant in return for Contreras to make the whole idea worthwhile, but the fulcrum is that it's easier to replace Contreras's production with players who cost less to acquire than Contreras's return would. And the reason that's possible comes down to defense and potentially knock-on effects of better defense/defense-related aspects.


But there's nothing to suggest Caratini is a good defensive catcher, right? He was a negative value defensively until 2019, and even then it's not overly impressive. I get that he's already on the roster, but any sort of platoon with Caratini getting 80+ starts isn't one centered around defense.


Depending on which framing metric you want to trust, Caratini was between 5 and 15 runs better than Contreras as a framer last year.

Statcorner: Caratini +9, Contreras +4
Fangraphs: Caratini +2, Contreras -9
Baseball Prospectus: Caratini +5, Contreras -10

EDIT: The BP number includes throwing and blocking, on framing alone it's Caratini +3, Contreras -9
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby squally1313 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:01 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
I mean that's a significant part of it. Obviously you need something significant in return for Contreras to make the whole idea worthwhile, but the fulcrum is that it's easier to replace Contreras's production with players who cost less to acquire than Contreras's return would. And the reason that's possible comes down to defense and potentially knock-on effects of better defense/defense-related aspects.


But there's nothing to suggest Caratini is a good defensive catcher, right? He was a negative value defensively until 2019, and even then it's not overly impressive. I get that he's already on the roster, but any sort of platoon with Caratini getting 80+ starts isn't one centered around defense.


Depending on which framing metric you want to trust, Caratini was between 5 and 15 runs better than Contreras as a framer last year.

Statcorner: Caratini +9, Contreras +4
Fangraphs: Caratini +2, Contreras -9
Baseball Prospectus: Caratini +5, Contreras -10

EDIT: The BP number includes throwing and blocking, on framing alone it's Caratini +3, Contreras -9


I wasn't saying they were equal, I know Contreras is bad, but I don't think that gap really comes that close to making up the offensive gap. I definitely see the argument, I'm just betting on Contreras as an upper .800s OPS guy, and someone who can be taught to cut down on the throwing errors, taught to be more focused behind the plate, etc.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:06 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
But there's nothing to suggest Caratini is a good defensive catcher, right? He was a negative value defensively until 2019, and even then it's not overly impressive. I get that he's already on the roster, but any sort of platoon with Caratini getting 80+ starts isn't one centered around defense.


Depending on which framing metric you want to trust, Caratini was between 5 and 15 runs better than Contreras as a framer last year.

Statcorner: Caratini +9, Contreras +4
Fangraphs: Caratini +2, Contreras -9
Baseball Prospectus: Caratini +5, Contreras -10

EDIT: The BP number includes throwing and blocking, on framing alone it's Caratini +3, Contreras -9


I wasn't saying they were equal, I know Contreras is bad, but I don't think that gap really comes that close to making up the offensive gap. I definitely see the argument, I'm just betting on Contreras as an upper .800s OPS guy, and someone who can be taught to cut down on the throwing errors, taught to be more focused behind the plate, etc.


I don't say this as someone who actively dislikes Contreras or truly wants him gone, but I think if you're looking for opportunities to have an outsized impact on the direction of the team, his combination of trade value, potential defensive gains, and the market options to help hedge against Caratini's flaws are the best bet.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:14 pm

Pretty ideal outcome for us here. Grandal goes to a non Brewers/Reds team and to an AL team that won’t affect us, also goes to a team we wouldn’t be dealing Willy to so it leaves all the options still on the table there. Plus the VBs and Reds need to add a catcher still so they could steal a guy from a team in the market for a catcher and help up the need/level of interest in Willy for those teams.
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Re: White Sox sign Grandal 4/$73

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:22 pm

To call a FA C the Cubs might show interest in post-Contreras: Russell Martin...Might be had at $4 million (Dodgers paid him $3.6) and he fits the defense first veteran C thing. Also hits that sweet spot of getting a pretty high profile player to play a low profile role on a good team
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