Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

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David
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby David » Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:51 pm

sneakypower wrote:there's really no reason to believe they're going to create a giant hole at one position to address another, i'm very confident in saying Robles simply isn't available here


idk...the heyman tweet makes it seem like the door might at least be somewhat open (he mentioned him for a reason) if the nationals don't get donaldson. it also is almost literally saying nothing, like most of his tweets, so whatever.

i wouldn't call it a giant hole, tho. bryant makes them better the next two years.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby squally1313 » Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:55 pm

chopsx9 wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
chopsx9 wrote:
I not sure I'm following why that's a negative for Verlander last season.


It means Verlander's defense played much better behind him, and that he likely got a lot more luck in terms of batted ball profile than Lynn. Neither of those I would really give credit to Verlander for. Lynn gives up a lot more ground balls, which run a higher BABIP, but that's a huge disparity, and Verlander's fly ball tendencies led to a ton of dongs.


Ok I get that and I agree that going forward you'd expect some normalization and if you're projecting for next season you'd tweek some numbers as a result. I guess I'm in the camp that if you're looking back,the numbers are what they are, and assessing value on what has already occurred based on what may or may not have been luck is a slippery slope. Looking forward - totally different. I also assume Verlander's BABIP can swing wildly from season to season because he allows comparatively few balls in play.


Yeah the way I look at fWAR is like, if Verlander and Lynn went back and pitched 2019 again, replicating all the elements they can control and then making everything else equal, I think you'd see the production numbers end up being pretty similar, if not tilted towards Lynn. In this case, it's based mainly on HR rate, which removes the fielding element of it, but obviously doesn't remove the hitter element. I think generally bWAR is a more accurate representation of how performance translated to actual results, whereas fWAR tries to isolate individual performance, which for me makes it a better number to look at to predict future performance. Obviously in this exact comparison you'd look at more than just 2019.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby sneakypower » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:12 pm

David wrote:
sneakypower wrote:there's really no reason to believe they're going to create a giant hole at one position to address another, i'm very confident in saying Robles simply isn't available here


idk...the heyman tweet makes it seem like the door might at least be somewhat open (he mentioned him for a reason) if the nationals don't get donaldson. it also is almost literally saying nothing, like most of his tweets, so whatever.

i wouldn't call it a giant hole, tho. bryant makes them better the next two years.

then they're stuck with worse-hitter-than-Albert-Almora in CF barring other major moves
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Bull » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:15 pm

sneakypower wrote:
David wrote:
sneakypower wrote:there's really no reason to believe they're going to create a giant hole at one position to address another, i'm very confident in saying Robles simply isn't available here


idk...the heyman tweet makes it seem like the door might at least be somewhat open (he mentioned him for a reason) if the nationals don't get donaldson. it also is almost literally saying nothing, like most of his tweets, so whatever.

i wouldn't call it a giant hole, tho. bryant makes them better the next two years.

then they're stuck with worse-hitter-than-Albert-Almora in CF barring other major moves

Throw Almora in. Problem solved. /s
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby champaignchris » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:17 pm

sneakypower wrote:
David wrote:
sneakypower wrote:there's really no reason to believe they're going to create a giant hole at one position to address another, i'm very confident in saying Robles simply isn't available here


idk...the heyman tweet makes it seem like the door might at least be somewhat open (he mentioned him for a reason) if the nationals don't get donaldson. it also is almost literally saying nothing, like most of his tweets, so whatever.

i wouldn't call it a giant hole, tho. bryant makes them better the next two years.

then they're stuck with worse-hitter-than-Albert-Almora in CF barring other major moves


The solution is obviously to include Almora in the trade!
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:29 pm

We all should all agree that trading Bryant is ridiculous, but if the Nationals want him the offer has to start with either Robles or Turner and include at least two other young players that would help the team in 2020-2021.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:43 pm

Backtobanks wrote:We all should all agree that trading Bryant is ridiculous, but if the Nationals want him the offer has to start with either Robles or Turner and include at least two other young players that would help the team in 2020-2021.


JMO that is just one way to look at it. Another is that Theo knows the Cubs will not be fixed with Bryant on the roster and need to move him. In that case, why be disagreeable? What if those teams don't want to give up players they have become attached to?

Some info we know: Robles put up 2.5 fWAR/4 bWAR in 2019, is 5+ years younger than Bryant, and has at least double the years of precious sweet power and control an org can wield over him as leverages. Mathematically we can use this to figure that Robles is 25-40x more valuable than Bryant on paper
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby sneakypower » Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:13 pm

Backtobanks wrote:We all should all agree that trading Bryant is ridiculous, but if the Nationals want him the offer has to start with either Robles or Turner and include at least two other young players that would help the team in 2020-2021.

lol now who's gonna be the first to demand Soto
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:34 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:We all should all agree that trading Bryant is ridiculous, but if the Nationals want him the offer has to start with either Robles or Turner and include at least two other young players that would help the team in 2020-2021.


JMO that is just one way to look at it. Another is that Theo knows the Cubs will not be fixed with Bryant on the roster and need to move him. In that case, why be disagreeable? What if those teams don't want to give up players they have become attached to?

Some info we know: Robles put up 2.5 fWAR/4 bWAR in 2019, is 5+ years younger than Bryant, and has at least double the years of precious sweet power and control an org can wield over him as leverages. Mathematically we can use this to figure that Robles is 25-40x more valuable than Bryant on paper


If you can't get players of that caliber for one of the best players in baseball, then don't trade him. I was glad to hear the asking price for Contreras "was absurd", and KB's ought to be absurd too. Trading KB is probably going to set the Cubs back two years (at least) unless the return is very good young ML players and not just lottery tickets. If the offers aren't reasonable, then Theo has to get creative by trading our other assets (prospects, Bote, Chatwood, Schwarber, etc.)
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby squally1313 » Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:41 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:We all should all agree that trading Bryant is ridiculous, but if the Nationals want him the offer has to start with either Robles or Turner and include at least two other young players that would help the team in 2020-2021.


JMO that is just one way to look at it. Another is that Theo knows the Cubs will not be fixed with Bryant on the roster and need to move him. In that case, why be disagreeable? What if those teams don't want to give up players they have become attached to?

Some info we know: Robles put up 2.5 fWAR/4 bWAR in 2019, is 5+ years younger than Bryant, and has at least double the years of precious sweet power and control an org can wield over him as leverages. Mathematically we can use this to figure that Robles is 25-40x more valuable than Bryant on paper


I know you're mostly kidding towards the end (or at least I assume so), but until someone can give any sort of proof that we'll be remotely competitive 2022-2024 given the current roster/system/contract status/Ricketts being in charge, I'm going to continue to want them to prioritize the last couple years of this core before they all hit free agency and become super old and expensive. Bryant being a clearly better player in 2020 and 2021 is much more important to me than whatever arbitration affordable production someone like Robles can give you the few years after that.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:53 pm

Backtobanks wrote:If you can't get players of that caliber for one of the best players in baseball, then don't trade him. I was glad to hear the asking price for Contreras "was absurd", and KB's ought to be absurd too. Trading KB is probably going to set the Cubs back two years (at least) unless the return is very good young ML players and not just lottery tickets. If the offers aren't reasonable, then Theo has to get creative by trading our other assets (prospects, Bote, Chatwood, Schwarber, etc.)


Bryant may be one of the handful best players in baseball but in overall dollar value and contract situation he's a pretty mediocre asset, not to mention Boras Wormtongue. With the Cubs in cap heck, teams are going to correctly identify any absurd asks as posturing and just wait the Cubs out. Theo will get desperate soon enough and your demands for Robles/Turner will turn into a thank you for Luis Garcia, Joe Ross, and Jackson Rutledge. By all reports teams like the Nats and others really don't want to trade their young, cheap ML talent for Bryant. That's unfortunate but Theo getting creative may end up being taking less than an absurd ask to free up more cap space, using Bryant to free us from the salaries Darvish or Chatwood. If he can pull that off then a Garcia, Ross, and Rutledge return doesn't seem half bad talking Nats #2 prospect, cheap SP, and recent 1st round pick - way better than the Angels did for Cozart
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:06 pm

I dont see why Darvish would have to use Bryant to free up money. I think he might bring value back himself.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby squally1313 » Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:15 pm

Tryptamine wrote:I dont see why Darvish would have to use Bryant to free up money. I think he might bring value back himself.

Yeah if other teams are inquiring about his availability, that doesn't signal to me that he has negative value. Teams don't usually ask what other teams would like to get rid of.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:21 pm

Darvish is an interesting case. At 33 he's an aging asset likely to decline due to a combo or age or injury at some point over the 4 years left on his contract. He's signed for $81 million over those 4 years and the Cubs are motivated to sell so they can fix their cap situation and prepare another multi-year run at some point next decade. I wonder how much money the Cubs would have to eat to get say a top 200 prospect? 150? 100?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Andy » Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:27 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Darvish is an interesting case. At 33 he's an aging asset likely to decline due to a combo or age or injury at some point over the 4 years left on his contract. He's signed for $81 million over those 4 years and the Cubs are motivated to sell so they can fix their cap situation and prepare another multi-year run at some point next decade. I wonder how much money the Cubs would have to eat to get say a top 200 prospect? 150? 100?

Darvish has a no-trade clause for this year that he's not waiving.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby sneakypower » Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:42 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Darvish is an interesting case. At 33 he's an aging asset likely to decline due to a combo or age or injury at some point over the 4 years left on his contract. He's signed for $81 million over those 4 years and the Cubs are motivated to sell so they can fix their cap situation and prepare another multi-year run at some point next decade. I wonder how much money the Cubs would have to eat to get say a top 200 prospect? 150? 100?

he had a 2.37 xFIP after the break; i'm in hell
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:48 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:I dont see why Darvish would have to use Bryant to free up money. I think he might bring value back himself.

Yeah if other teams are inquiring about his availability, that doesn't signal to me that he has negative value. Teams don't usually ask what other teams would like to get rid of.


Eh, it's not hard for me to imagine that teams see what Cole/Strasburg/Wheeler got, what remaining FA want, and combine it with the clear message the Cubs are being $ conscious to see if they want to dump Darvish's contract for a song. Doesn't mean he has absolute negative value, but the value might not be all that positive.

As for trading Darvish, if ownership is driving down payroll at all costs, trading Darvish isn't my favorite option but it's worlds better than trying to trade Bryant.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:10 pm

sneakypower wrote:he had a 2.37 xFIP after the break; i'm in hell


Yes, but at what $ cost? Trading Darvish and Bryant saves the Cubs as much as $40+ million a year. They can make a competitive offer for Betts at the auction next offseason or maybe try trading for Arenado, the payroll flexibility gained allows for so many possibilities that can rejuvenate the franchise without taking a step back

Andy wrote:Darvish has a no-trade clause for this year that he's not waiving.


Crappy handicap but maybe if the FO explains the situation?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:29 pm

They better hit on some SP prospects in the next ~18 months if Yu is traded (think it’s pretty clear he isn’t going anywhere and it’s baseless speculation by writers) because it’s just Hendricks beyond this year.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:51 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:If you can't get players of that caliber for one of the best players in baseball, then don't trade him. I was glad to hear the asking price for Contreras "was absurd", and KB's ought to be absurd too. Trading KB is probably going to set the Cubs back two years (at least) unless the return is very good young ML players and not just lottery tickets. If the offers aren't reasonable, then Theo has to get creative by trading our other assets (prospects, Bote, Chatwood, Schwarber, etc.)


Bryant may be one of the handful best players in baseball but in overall dollar value and contract situation he's a pretty mediocre asset, not to mention Boras Wormtongue. With the Cubs in cap heck, teams are going to correctly identify any absurd asks as posturing and just wait the Cubs out. Theo will get desperate soon enough and your demands for Robles/Turner will turn into a thank you for Luis Garcia, Joe Ross, and Jackson Rutledge. By all reports teams like the Nats and others really don't want to trade their young, cheap ML talent for Bryant. That's unfortunate but Theo getting creative may end up being taking less than an absurd ask to free up more cap space, using Bryant to free us from the salaries Darvish or Chatwood. If he can pull that off then a Garcia, Ross, and Rutledge return doesn't seem half bad talking Nats #2 prospect, cheap SP, and recent 1st round pick - way better than the Angels did for Cozart


You didn't really use Cozart's trade value in a discussion about Bryant's trade value, did you? Also, what does Theo need cap space for if the team is going to be out of contention for the next 2-3 years?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:01 pm

Backtobanks wrote:You didn't really use Cozart's trade value in a discussion about Bryant's trade value, did you? Also, what does Theo need cap space for if the team is going to be out of contention for the next 2-3 years?


It's just a rough comparison. Bryant's actually projected to make like $40 million through arb or so over the next two years to Cozart's 1 year and ~$13 million so arguably the Cubs have even more to gain than the Angels did. The cap space offers flexibility over that time frame so the Cubs can reset, maybe even help them recoup some of the money they lost between renovations and launching the network
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby CubinNY » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:40 pm

I hate this horsefeathering thread.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:45 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:You didn't really use Cozart's trade value in a discussion about Bryant's trade value, did you? Also, what does Theo need cap space for if the team is going to be out of contention for the next 2-3 years?


It's just a rough comparison. Bryant's actually projected to make like $40 million through arb or so over the next two years to Cozart's 1 year and ~$13 million so arguably the Cubs have even more to gain than the Angels did. The cap space offers flexibility over that time frame so the Cubs can reset, maybe even help them recoup some of the money they lost between renovations and launching the network


I still don't understand how you compare Cozart (.247/.300/.399/.699 with avg. of 17 HR and 59 RBI) with Bryant (.284/.385/.516/.901 with 32 HR and 92RBI).
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:56 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:You didn't really use Cozart's trade value in a discussion about Bryant's trade value, did you? Also, what does Theo need cap space for if the team is going to be out of contention for the next 2-3 years?


It's just a rough comparison. Bryant's actually projected to make like $40 million through arb or so over the next two years to Cozart's 1 year and ~$13 million so arguably the Cubs have even more to gain than the Angels did. The cap space offers flexibility over that time frame so the Cubs can reset, maybe even help them recoup some of the money they lost between renovations and launching the network


I still don't understand how you compare Cozart (.247/.300/.399/.699 with avg. of 17 HR and 59 RBI) with Bryant (.284/.385/.516/.901 with 32 HR and 92RBI).

Well, you can compare them. You can compare how much better a team is with one of them on it, as opposed to the other...
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:57 pm

Backtobanks wrote:I still don't understand how you compare Cozart (.247/.300/.399/.699 with avg. of 17 HR and 59 RBI) with Bryant (.284/.385/.516/.901 with 32 HR and 92RBI).


For me the comparison is more general: two depreciating assets at 3B with salaries preventing their respective orgs from getting better. Bryant's salary alone is projected to be just under 10% of the cap and could break that number next year. Cozart will cost $5+ million to roster than Bryant will in 2020, a big factor in what made him easier to move
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