Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:26 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:Man, your headspace is fascinating.


Lies but if not

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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:48 pm

Worst case scenario for me. You don't maximize Bryant, Contreras, etc trade value , instead pretending that an 84 win team that has only gotten worse is a WS contender. Either add to the team or capitalize on your asset's value, don't run out mediocrity hoping that various things break right.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:06 pm

Is playing a bunch of 26-28 YO All Stars and MVP candidates really not a way for the Cubs to capitalize on the value of their assets though? Like it seemed all off-season there was a gap between their value on the field v a trade and the winner wasn't their trade value. Since most are under control for at least another season the Cubs didn't miss any window to trade these guys
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Tim » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:26 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Worst case scenario for me. You don't maximize Bryant, Contreras, etc trade value , instead pretending that an 84 win team that has only gotten worse is a WS contender. Either add to the team or capitalize on your asset's value, don't run out mediocrity hoping that various things break right.

They weren't a true talent 84 win team last year.

everything else I agree with.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Tryptamine » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:22 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Is playing a bunch of 26-28 YO All Stars and MVP candidates really not a way for the Cubs to capitalize on the value of their assets though? Like it seemed all off-season there was a gap between their value on the field v a trade and the winner wasn't their trade value. Since most are under control for at least another season the Cubs didn't miss any window to trade these guys


I'd prefer to avoid a Machado situation where the Orioles got mostly nothing because they wasted too much of his control.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:03 am

Tryptamine wrote:I'd prefer to avoid a Machado situation where the Orioles got mostly nothing because they wasted too much of his control.


The Cubs can trade any of Baez, Bryant, Contreras, and Schwarber at the trade deadline with at least full season of powerful control than Baltimore had when trading Machado...Contreras would still have two and a half years at the deadline
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Tim » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:34 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:I'd prefer to avoid a Machado situation where the Orioles got mostly nothing because they wasted too much of his control.


The Cubs can trade any of Baez, Bryant, Contreras, and Schwarber at the trade deadline with at least full season of powerful control than Baltimore had when trading Machado...Contreras would still have two and a half years at the deadline

We're not going to trade any of them when we have a five game lead in the division, though. That's right, we're rocking with this team in 2020.


















(side note: I'm sitting in a brewery in Grand Rapids right now)
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:12 am

Tim wrote:We're not going to trade any of them when we have a five game lead in the division, though. That's right, we're rocking with this team in 2020.

(side note: I'm sitting in a brewery in Grand Rapids right now)


Best offense since 2016's a'comin + Yu does a good Curt Schilling (the pitcher) impression
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:30 pm

So apparently the 'hope the Rockies get brain poisoning' plan for the offseason is still alive? https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/202 ... n-arenado/

Kaplan wrote:I was on the phone with somebody in Colorado last night who covers the Rockies, and he said to me, ‘Hey dude, let me just tell you, these discussions are real. Nolan Arenado … absolutely wants out of the Colorado Rockies organization, and he’s made it clear to ownership. I don’t want to be here. Get me outta here.’ He said, ‘I’m telling you, the Cubs are absolutely motivated to try to get him. Absolutely, 100%.'
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby champaignchris » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:01 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:So apparently the 'hope the Rockies get brain poisoning' plan for the offseason is still alive? https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/202 ... n-arenado/

Kaplan wrote:I was on the phone with somebody in Colorado last night who covers the Rockies, and he said to me, ‘Hey dude, let me just tell you, these discussions are real. Nolan Arenado … absolutely wants out of the Colorado Rockies organization, and he’s made it clear to ownership. I don’t want to be here. Get me outta here.’ He said, ‘I’m telling you, the Cubs are absolutely motivated to try to get him. Absolutely, 100%.'


I see the Rockies’ motivation to move Arenado for Bryant. I don’t see the Cubs’ motivation.

With Arenado’s player options, it’s the same two years guaranteed as Bryant at basically twice the salary for a marginally better player, with the risk that he underperforms and puts the Cubs on the hook for $30+MM a year for five more years of a declining player.

Would the Rockies be taking Heyward, sending prospects to the Cubs, what?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:05 pm

champaignchris wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:So apparently the 'hope the Rockies get brain poisoning' plan for the offseason is still alive? https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/202 ... n-arenado/

Kaplan wrote:I was on the phone with somebody in Colorado last night who covers the Rockies, and he said to me, ‘Hey dude, let me just tell you, these discussions are real. Nolan Arenado … absolutely wants out of the Colorado Rockies organization, and he’s made it clear to ownership. I don’t want to be here. Get me outta here.’ He said, ‘I’m telling you, the Cubs are absolutely motivated to try to get him. Absolutely, 100%.'


I see the Rockies’ motivation to move Arenado for Bryant. I don’t see the Cubs’ motivation.

With Arenado’s player options, it’s the same two years guaranteed as Bryant at basically twice the salary for a marginally better player, with the risk that he underperforms and puts the Cubs on the hook for $30+MM a year for five more years of a declining player.

Would the Rockies be taking Heyward, sending prospects to the Cubs, what?


It could be where they get him to waive the opt out for the concession of getting the hell out of a place he doesn't want to be, and there also is at least a chance the Cubs wouldn't be on the hook for $30 plus depending on how much the Rockies kicked in.

At least it's some motivation.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:43 pm

On the Cubs end I think it really depends on the finances. The team already as it stands needs to cut ~$5M to safely get under the luxury tax. Arenado makes $14M more than Kris, so let's call it an even $20M? That is really hard to do at this juncture, for instance dumping Chatwood and Descalso is only $15M, so the Rockies would need to throw in money on top of that.

If the mandate from ownership is more flexible, where this season or next are options, it's a lot easier to see. The FO would need to be fairly creative in patching the back of the rotation, but it wouldn't have to be as ridiculously austere as this offseason has been.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Brian » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:55 pm

If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:21 pm

Brian wrote:If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.


I'd buy that.

I also really wonder at what point the team closes up shop on a Bryant deal and makes their backup move. I can't imagine they go into the season slightly over the tax, so they've got to at some point. Theo said something during the presser about being close to turning the page, so this weekend when position players report?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Brian » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:30 pm

for better or worse I think Plan A right now is go to war with what they got. If things go bad they can sell off and get under, if things are going well go for it and worry about the CBT next year.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:31 pm

Brian wrote:If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.


I believe it was never directly stated to be under the tax, but it was stated they'd have a hard budget that the tax would obviously eat into. So they can either be under this year or next.

If you can get Bryant and Arenado on the same team this year and go for broke, do it then you find a way to chisel away at that budget next year. Bottom line is it's going to happen this year or next.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby KingCubsFan » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:34 pm

Brian wrote:If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.


Agree with most of this, although it’s not the tax itself that’s necessarily driving the decision. It’s the lost revenue as a result of being in the LT penalty box that is much more painful. Brett at Bleachernation has the best write up on it. The best writers can’t seem to figure it out.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby d_money » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:16 pm

KingCubsFan wrote:
Brian wrote:If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.


Agree with most of this, although it’s not the tax itself that’s necessarily driving the decision. It’s the lost revenue as a result of being in the LT penalty box that is much more painful. Brett at Bleachernation has the best write up on it. The best writers can’t seem to figure it out.

The loss of draft picks in the 3rd year of being over occurs as well, I believe. If true - that’s a significant factor.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Banedon » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:30 pm

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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby David » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:36 pm

Banedon wrote:Bryant for Arenado still has legs.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/ ... do-rockies


you don't say?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:58 pm

Brian wrote:If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.


I'm not sure I agree with you on not having an actual directive to be under the LT. If there wasn't a directive, Theo wasted this whole offseason by not signing players or trading for players that would have made this team much better. Why would he spend all of this time hinting at trading KB and infuriating fans if he didn't need to?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Brian » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:33 pm

because if there was an actual directive they would be under the luxury tax now and Bryant would have been traded in an awful trade (see: Red Sox), or someone else would have been moved

We'll see, If we're at opening day and they are still over than I'm pretty confident in my post be mostly true.

It's not an ideal situation, but for me it's better than what the Red Sox did.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:37 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Brian wrote:If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.


I'm not sure I agree with you on not having an actual directive to be under the LT. If there wasn't a directive, Theo wasted this whole offseason by not signing players or trading for players that would have made this team much better. Why would he spend all of this time hinting at trading KB and infuriating fans if he didn't need to?


The idea is that PTR is giving Theo $X per year, and not kicking in any extra for penalties/taxes/whatever. So because of the escalating nature of the penalties, Theo's choice is something along the lines of:

$208M in 2020 and $250M in 2021
vs.
$220M in 2020 and $210M in 2021

The plan has clearly been the former, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're still locked into it if the right opportunity arises.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:36 pm

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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:49 pm

Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.
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