Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby ConstableRabbit » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:14 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.

Occam’s Razor would imply that if we think the FO is sharp, if they did do that trade either:
1. They don’t think Nolan is just slightly better moving forward
2. It’s not such a big contract after the Rockies throw in cash
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Deeg » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:11 am

ConstableRabbit wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.

Occam’s Razor would imply that if we think the FO is sharp, if they did do that trade either:
1. They don’t think Nolan is just slightly better moving forward
2. It’s not such a big contract after the Rockies throw in cash


Certainly 2 is part of the equation if it happens. But there's also cost certainty beyond 2021 and getting under the cap this season and resetting the penalties for PTR. There's also the fact that (as usual) people are undervaluing defense. Bryant has slipped to (maybe) average at 3B - Arenado is historically great.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Gilby » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:28 am

There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:42 am

Gilby wrote:There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.


i hate how Nolan starts to make me feel ok about losing Bryant. Then I think about Bryant providing many many bombs in CO, and I hate it even more
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby ConstableRabbit » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:46 am

Gilby wrote:There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

Is he all of a sudden not going to play a [expletive] of games at Petco and Dodger Stadium and AT&T?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby David » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:52 am

Gilby wrote:There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.


much of what he'll gain at coors he'll lose on the road because of the coors breaking ball hangover effect
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby David » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:54 am

ConstableRabbit wrote:
Gilby wrote:There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

Is he all of a sudden not going to play a [expletive] of games at Petco and Dodger Stadium and AT&T?


and this
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:55 am

Bryant would horsefeathers in Coors. He’s the better offensive player anyways. But in terms of overall value, longer term projection to stay at 3B and a safer floor and be a consistent 4.5-5.5 win guy I think Arenado has firmly established himself as the safer bet there recently. You’re also guaranteed to have a star longer, at a discount, if you trade for him (he’s likely waiving the opt out and the Rockies are taking money back and/or throwing money in). Bryant still has the higher ceiling though.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Gilby » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:01 am

ConstableRabbit wrote:
Gilby wrote:There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

Is he all of a sudden not going to play a [expletive] of games at Petco and Dodger Stadium and AT&T?


Wrigley's horsefeathers to hit in a lot of days and PNC and Busch are giant monstrosities as well.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Deeg » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:28 am

I can't imagine the Cubs bite on this without Arenado waiving or amending some of his opt-out flexibility. If he wants out of CO badly enough that's something he should be willing to do.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby champaignchris » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:30 am

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Gilby wrote:There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.


i hate how Nolan starts to make me feel ok about losing Bryant. Then I think about Bryant providing many many bombs in CO, and I hate it even more


I think the whole point for Colorado is to flip Bryant for prospects at the deadline.

He has a far easier contract to trade than Arenado, and unlike the Cubs, Colorado won’t necessarily be looking for major league ready prospects.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:55 am

The Ricketts family as they read reactions to this still hilarious rumor:

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Not to rain on the parade but Theo Epstein's not trading a .380+ OBP player for a same aged guy with both a giant contract and a .350 career OBP despite Coors as the home park just because he plays some better defense (literally the only thing Arenado does any better). We're also talking about an arguably most popular player in a franchise's history trying to get himself away from that franchise specifically because he feels they do not prioritize winning. The Cubs would be trading their best player to make this happen, not something orgs that prioritize winning usually do. This is before really even getting to the money, where the Cubs would now be in an even less flexible payroll situation to make a lateral (optimistically) move. None of this adds up. The only result that looks certain to come from it is that the Ricketts would get praised for spending and the Cubs' infield defense gets whocares amount better (however long that lasts) at the cost of more sustainable offensive skills
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Deeg » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:33 am

He's not even arguably the most popular player on the current roster.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby ChiCubsFan » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:49 am

Arenado has been over .370 OBP each of the last 3 seasons.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:11 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.


Yeah, this deal makes no sense for the Cubs unless there's more players involved. Meanwhile Colorado gets rid of an unhappy player and a horrible contract and gets an equally talented player in return. I thought the whole point of trading Bryant was to save money.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:35 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:We're also talking about an arguably most popular player in a franchise's history


This was rightly already called out, but seriously, what the horsefeathers are you smoking.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:44 pm

Deeg wrote:He's not even arguably the most popular player on the current roster.


Nolan Arenado is most definitely the most popular player on the Rockies.

ChiCubsFan wrote:Arenado has been over .370 OBP each of the last 3 seasons.


Bryant's at .385 for his career, has posted an OBP less than .370 just once as a rookie (.369)

I also thought the whole thing with trading Bryant was to save money. Trading him for a miserable player with a worse contract who isn't even an obvious upgrade at peak let alone moving forward into their late-20s and beyond just...Also I think Arenado's a brat and Bryant's way less phased by nonsense
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Tim » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:37 pm

Deeg wrote:He's not even arguably the most popular player on the current roster.

Who is more popular in Colorado than Arenado? Or did you read that wrong?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Tim » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:39 pm

If Colorado is that desperate to move Arenado, they can take Heyward and a couple of prospects back in return and we'll call it even.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:17 pm

Tim wrote:
Deeg wrote:He's not even arguably the most popular player on the current roster.

Who is more popular in Colorado than Arenado? Or did you read that wrong?


I'm assuming he made the same mistake I did; I thought he was talking about Bryant.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:17 pm

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.


Bryant:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR
ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

Arenado:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR
ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:03 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.


Bryant:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR
ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

Arenado:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR
ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.


So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby ConstableRabbit » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:06 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.


Bryant:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR
ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

Arenado:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR
ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.


So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

I donno, maybe because they disagree with the projections? Maybe because they have access to information Fangraphs doesn’t have? It’s not complicated.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:17 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.


Bryant:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR
ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

Arenado:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR
ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.


So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

Because they may project Arenado more favorably moving forward, he’s controlled longer (I’m operating off the assumption if he’s traded he’s waiving his opt out rights as articles have mentioned), Arenado has been healthier and better more recently, projects to be able to stay at 3B longer, the Rockies are willing to pay down the deal and you’re getting Arenado at a discount, if we can throw Chatwood in him and Bryant are close to equaling out Arenado’s salary this year, maybe they like Arenado’s personality a bit to shake horsefeathers up like they’ve mentioned wanting, etc. You can still get under the LT this year acquiring Arenado and there’s still plenty of money to spend next offseason with him added.

I’d rather move Bryant for around an equally as good player, who’s controlled longer than for a prospect poo poo platter/pitchers who probably die.
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Re: Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

Postby ConstableRabbit » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:45 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.


Bryant:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR
ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

Arenado:
Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR
ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.


So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

Because they may project Arenado more favorably moving forward, he’s controlled longer (I’m operating off the assumption if he’s traded he’s waiving his opt out rights as articles have mentioned), Arenado has been healthier and better more recently, projects to be able to stay at 3B longer, the Rockies are willing to pay down the deal and you’re getting Arenado at a discount, if we can throw Chatwood in him and Bryant are close to equaling out Arenado’s salary this year, maybe they like Arenado’s personality a bit to shake horsefeathers up like they’ve mentioned wanting, etc. You can still get under the LT this year acquiring Arenado and there’s still plenty of money to spend next offseason with him added.

I’d rather move Bryant for around an equally as good player, who’s controlled longer than for a prospect poo poo platter/pitchers who probably die.

They've also mentioned valuing contact and Arenado Ks a lot less, fwiw.
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