Shogo

[Cubswin11]

[Sammy Sofa]

I swear I want to try and be more positive about the Cubs, but if they sign this guy it's basically screaming "BUST" in gigantic, building-sized neon letters. A past-30 international player whose main assets seem to be hinged on speed and who has been dealing with foot injuries being signed by a team trying to right the ship and with VERY limited resources? Yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes. This makes drafting pitchers sound like a sure bet.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I swear I want to try and be more positive about the Cubs, but if they sign this guy it's basically screaming "BUST" in gigantic, building-sized neon letters. A past-30 international player whose main assets seem to be hinged on speed and who has been dealing with foot injuries being signed by a team trying to right the ship and with VERY limited resources? Yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes. This makes drafting pitchers sound like a sure bet.

If you want reasons to think Shogo won't work out they definitely exist, but I would hesitate to say his game is predicated on speed. His plate discipline and hit tool are the main attractions. Speed makes both of those things more useful, but they also remain useful even with waning speed. When I think about his profile, on one end you can see a lot of Zobrist as a hitter. On the other hand, you can see Fukudome with a touch less pop. Both those guys stole their share of bases in their prime, but it wasn't the driver of their production.

[Cubswin11]

I swear I want to try and be more positive about the Cubs, but if they sign this guy it's basically screaming "BUST" in gigantic, building-sized neon letters. A past-30 international player whose main assets seem to be hinged on speed and who has been dealing with foot injuries being signed by a team trying to right the ship and with VERY limited resources? Yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes. This makes drafting pitchers sound like a sure bet.

Our CF’ers hit .245/.316/.410 with a 87 wRC+ last year and also graded out poorly defensively. Throw in one of the worst players in the league over the last 2 years saw significant time there and Akiyama will take significant time from him, the bar ain’t exactly high to to give us more than we got last year. Plus he, presumably, brings the whole contact thing they want to add more of in the profile.

[Bull]

I swear I want to try and be more positive about the Cubs, but if they sign this guy it's basically screaming "BUST" in gigantic, building-sized neon letters. A past-30 international player whose main assets seem to be hinged on speed and who has been dealing with foot injuries being signed by a team trying to right the ship and with VERY limited resources? Yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes. This makes drafting pitchers sound like a sure bet.

It’s pretty clear nothing about you wants to be positive. That said, you’re in a pretty good place. Your negativity is a perfect fit for this cubs offseason. I may even join you!

[squally1313]

I swear I want to try and be more positive about the Cubs, but if they sign this guy it's basically screaming "BUST" in gigantic, building-sized neon letters. A past-30 international player whose main assets seem to be hinged on speed and who has been dealing with foot injuries being signed by a team trying to right the ship and with VERY limited resources? Yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes. This makes drafting pitchers sound like a sure bet.

Our CF’ers hit .245/.316/.410 with a 87 wRC+ last year and also graded out poorly defensively. Throw in one of the worst players in the league over the last 2 years saw significant time there and Akiyama will take significant time from him, the bar ain’t exactly high to to give us more than we got last year. Plus he, presumably, brings the whole contact thing they want to add more of in the profile.

We’re not comparing him to Almora as much as we’re comparing him to the other options out there, including the guy we have in house, Happ, who has considerably more promise and potential than ‘mid 30s Dollar store version of Zobrist without the versatility’

[Cubswin11]

I swear I want to try and be more positive about the Cubs, but if they sign this guy it's basically screaming "BUST" in gigantic, building-sized neon letters. A past-30 international player whose main assets seem to be hinged on speed and who has been dealing with foot injuries being signed by a team trying to right the ship and with VERY limited resources? Yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes. This makes drafting pitchers sound like a sure bet.

Our CF’ers hit .245/.316/.410 with a 87 wRC+ last year and also graded out poorly defensively. Throw in one of the worst players in the league over the last 2 years saw significant time there and Akiyama will take significant time from him, the bar ain’t exactly high to to give us more than we got last year. Plus he, presumably, brings the whole contact thing they want to add more of in the profile.

We’re not comparing him to Almora as much as we’re comparing him to the other options out there, including the guy we have in house, Happ, who has considerably more promise and potential than ‘mid 30s Dollar store version of Zobrist without the versatility’

That’s fine, I do worry his addition keeps Happ from getting ABs. But there’s really no other options for CF in house. He should help make the roster deeper regardless by adding a quality player and again he’s the contact compliment guy they are looking for. If KB or Bote is traded more playing time for Happ opens up too.

[squally1313]

Our CF’ers hit .245/.316/.410 with a 87 wRC+ last year and also graded out poorly defensively. Throw in one of the worst players in the league over the last 2 years saw significant time there and Akiyama will take significant time from him, the bar ain’t exactly high to to give us more than we got last year. Plus he, presumably, brings the whole contact thing they want to add more of in the profile.

We’re not comparing him to Almora as much as we’re comparing him to the other options out there, including the guy we have in house, Happ, who has considerably more promise and potential than ‘mid 30s Dollar store version of Zobrist without the versatility’

That’s fine, I do worry his addition keeps Happ from getting ABs. But there’s really no other options for CF in house. He should help make the roster deeper regardless by adding a quality player and again he’s the contact compliment guy they are looking for. If KB or Bote is traded more playing time for Happ opens up too.

Especially in the hypothetical where we trade KB, but also in general, I’d much rather get comfortable with Heyward playing 40ish games in center and getting a reliable, platoon-y, on base heavy bat to play right. That could be KB if we pick up an infielder too. Basically, Schwarber/Happ/Heyward scares me enough offensively as is...I’d prefer to find a lefty killer to give us a boost.

[Sammy Sofa]

I swear I want to try and be more positive about the Cubs, but if they sign this guy it's basically screaming "BUST" in gigantic, building-sized neon letters. A past-30 international player whose main assets seem to be hinged on speed and who has been dealing with foot injuries being signed by a team trying to right the ship and with VERY limited resources? Yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes. This makes drafting pitchers sound like a sure bet.

If you want reasons to think Shogo won't work out they definitely exist, but I would hesitate to say his game is predicated on speed. His plate discipline and hit tool are the main attractions. Speed makes both of those things more useful, but they also remain useful even with waning speed. When I think about his profile, on one end you can see a lot of Zobrist as a hitter. On the other hand, you can see Fukudome with a touch less pop. Both those guys stole their share of bases in their prime, but it wasn't the driver of their production.

That's true, but I was also largely thinking about his defense, too.

I dunno; this just seems like there are a zillion warning flags with this deal.

[Cubswin11]

We’re not comparing him to Almora as much as we’re comparing him to the other options out there, including the guy we have in house, Happ, who has considerably more promise and potential than ‘mid 30s Dollar store version of Zobrist without the versatility’

That’s fine, I do worry his addition keeps Happ from getting ABs. But there’s really no other options for CF in house. He should help make the roster deeper regardless by adding a quality player and again he’s the contact compliment guy they are looking for. If KB or Bote is traded more playing time for Happ opens up too.

Especially in the hypothetical where we trade KB, but also in general, I’d much rather get comfortable with Heyward playing 40ish games in center and getting a reliable, platoon-y, on base heavy bat to play right. That could be KB if we pick up an infielder too. Basically, Schwarber/Happ/Heyward scares me enough offensively as is...I’d prefer to find a lefty killer to give us a boost.

I’d like to take a flyer on Souza for that role.

[Cubswin11]

[UMFan83]

Shogo a nogo

horsefeathers it, at this point just bring back the same team (minus our FA losses) and either they randomly get better, or they suck and we can deal guys in July.

[Bertz]

The median outcome for Shogo is probably something like Jon Jay, and so I get bowing out rather than going to three years on a 32 year old Jon Jay clone. But man, given that depth is already the team's biggest problem, letting all these guys go by while waiting on a Bryant decision is gonna hurt.

[Cubswin11]

The median outcome for Shogo is probably something like Jon Jay, and so I get bowing out rather than going to three years on a 32 year old Jon Jay clone. But man, given that depth is already the team's biggest problem, letting all these guys go by while waiting on a Bryant decision is gonna hurt.

Yeah he likely isn’t gonna be a star but fit a hole here. It really seems like the plan right now is either run it back with the exact same roster except #5 starter and some bullpen moves or wait on KB decision then trade him to get under the LT and I guess see what’s out there left in FA. Which is a stupid horsefeathering plan. Because if they wanted to get under the LT and just do some of these small adds Q and/or Chatwood (use Roederer or Strumpf or some 7-15 org guy) could’ve or should’ve been moved by now to accomplish that.

[Bryant's Disco Ball]

If it's true that the money now "exceeds" $20 million, he did a lot better for himself than the 2 years and $10 million that was projected.

[Bertz]

The median outcome for Shogo is probably something like Jon Jay, and so I get bowing out rather than going to three years on a 32 year old Jon Jay clone. But man, given that depth is already the team's biggest problem, letting all these guys go by while waiting on a Bryant decision is gonna hurt.

Yeah he likely isn’t gonna be a star but fit a hole here. It really seems like the plan right now is either run it back with the exact same roster except #5 starter and some bullpen moves or wait on KB decision then trade him to get under the LT and I guess see what’s out there left in FA. Which is a stupid horsefeathering plan. Because if they wanted to get under the LT and just do some of these small adds Q and/or Chatwood (use Roederer or Strumpf or some 7-15 org guy) could’ve or should’ve been moved by now to accomplish that.

Yeah they're clearly waiting on KB for EVERYTHING. They don't want to deal Q because they're not sure if they'll have those additional arms yet. They don't want to sign anybody because they don't know how much money they have available. I'm not sure why Willson has been affected....I'm starting to wonder if they've changed their mind on moving him?

[Cubswin11]

The median outcome for Shogo is probably something like Jon Jay, and so I get bowing out rather than going to three years on a 32 year old Jon Jay clone. But man, given that depth is already the team's biggest problem, letting all these guys go by while waiting on a Bryant decision is gonna hurt.

Yeah he likely isn’t gonna be a star but fit a hole here. It really seems like the plan right now is either run it back with the exact same roster except #5 starter and some bullpen moves or wait on KB decision then trade him to get under the LT and I guess see what’s out there left in FA. Which is a stupid horsefeathering plan. Because if they wanted to get under the LT and just do some of these small adds Q and/or Chatwood (use Roederer or Strumpf or some 7-15 org guy) could’ve or should’ve been moved by now to accomplish that.

Yeah they're clearly waiting on KB for EVERYTHING. They don't want to deal Q because they're not sure if they'll have those additional arms yet. They don't want to sign anybody because they don't know how much money they have available. I'm not sure why Willson has been affected....I'm starting to wonder if they've changed their mind on moving him?

Yup, I don’t how to read it on Willy. Agree with everything else you said, we’re just stuck right now. With Willy maybe they changed their mind, maybe there’s an overlap with him and KB for teams to trade to and they don’t want to do a trade with Willy to a team who could jump in on KB once he’s settled (Angels, Padres, Rays, Twins, Mets?, Rangers, off the top of my head seem to have overlap for both). Or maybe they want to do KB first to see exactly what they get prospect wise (CF, SP, etc.) and don’t want to do too much overlap on a position/prospect type in a deal? I could see it being any or a combination of those.

[TomtheBombadil]

Is depth even really this team's problem? There's never been more physical bodies available to pitch, 2B and CF have multiple in house options that *ideally* would be reserves but do have starter experience, SS depth is better with Short and Hoerner on the 40...Still think the Cubs avoiding the Sogards, Shogos, and BOR or MR pitcher options of FA says less about their already trumped up payroll issues and much more about the lack of certainty and/or impact potential

[Cubswin11]

Is depth even really this team's problem? There's never been more physical bodies available to pitch, 2B and CF have multiple in house options that *ideally* would be reserves but do have starter experience, SS depth is better with Short and Hoerner on the 40...Still think the Cubs avoiding the Sogards, Shogos, and BOR or MR pitcher options of FA says less about their already trumped up payroll issues and much more about the lack of certainty and/or impact potential

Yes? They gave 980 PAs to Almora, Descalso, Kemp, Russell, Cargo and Zagunis last year and as of today have done nothing to improve on that. 650 of those PAs would make the opening day roster if the season started today (Almora, Descalso, Kemp). Russell was the only guy who produced positive WAR or a wRC+ over 77, everyone but Zagunis and Russell posted a wRC+ of 64 or lower. This also led to suboptimal things like Heyward having to face LHP far too often. Depth was and continues to be a major issue (Theo and Jed have literally said so themselves). I agree 2B can likely be solved in house with Nico/Happ/Bote but that still leaves the OF/CF.

I don't see how you can say with a straight face CF has multiple in house options currently, at least in terms of options who are good. CF/OF definitely lacks depth and certainty right now (there's still major question marks and platoon issues, they need a RHH CF'er and a RHH option to platoon with Heyward and/or Schwarbs, which maybe that's KB). Part of the in house options in the OF include Happ and maybe even Nico right now too. Both clearly have flaws/questions and looking at them as CF/OF answers takes away from the 2B solutions as well. It takes almost literally everything breaking right to have both figured out with just in house options as of today. I agree maybe some of these margin adds just weren't worth it for what they ultimately went for, no issue sitting out Sogard at $5 mil or whatever, but they need to add a little more certainty on the depth levels (you aren't getting "impact" there). Holt, Pillar and Souza could go a long ways to adding some certainty and allow for a roster that makes some sense with platoon set ups at multiple spots. Holt/Nico could platoon at 2B, Heyward/Souza in RF, Happ/Pillar in CF, KB in LF with Bote at 3B vs LHP for example.

On the positive side, they seem to have done a nice job with the pen so far. IMO. They are taking the depth by numbers approach and at least are giving themselves a ton of options to cycle through, unlike last year where they were stuck with guys who didn't have options left (Kintzler, Strop, Brach, Cishek, Carl, etc) and had to ride them out longer than most of their performances should’ve dictated. They now at least have guys who they can shuffle through more aggressively as the year goes on to try and figure out the last 1-2 spots. Again would be nice to have maybe 1-2 more spots of certainty in the pen but with bullpens that's always tough, you can at least see what they're trying to do.

[The_Achiever]

He might be Jon Jay (or worse) but this is the attainable/reasonably priced FA I wanted this offseason. So tired of the revolving door at leadoff and CF. We've never replaced what Fowler gave us in 15/16. Just someone to get on base at a good clip would be huge.

What a BS offseason this is. Just a few tweaks was all I was hoping for. FFS!

[Cubswin11]

He might be Jon Jay (or worse) but this is the attainable/reasonably priced FA I wanted this offseason. So tired of the revolving door at leadoff and CF. We've never replaced what Fowler gave us in 15/16. Just someone to get on base at a good clip would be huge.

What a BS offseason this is. Just a few tweaks was all I was hoping for. FFS!

They should just make Rizzo the lead off hitter and be done with it.

[TomtheBombadil]

Yes? They gave 980 PAs to Almora, Descalso, Kemp, Russell, Cargo and Zagunis last year and have done nothing to improve on that. Russell was the only guy who produced positive WAR or a wRC+ over 77, everyone but Zagunis and Russell posted a wRC+ of 64 or lower. This also led to suboptimal things like Heyward having to face LHP far too often. Depth was and continues to be a major issue (Theo and Jed have literally said so themselves). I agree 2B can likely be solved in house with Nico/Happ/Bote.

I don't see how you can say with a straight face CF has multiple in house options currently, CF/OF definitely lacks depth and certainty right now (there's still major question marks and platoon issues, they need a RHH CF'er and a RHH option to platoon with Heyward and/or Schwarbs, which maybe that's KB). Part of the in house options in the OF include Happ and maybe even Nico right now too. Both clearly have flaws/questions and looking at them as CF/OF answers takes away from the 2B solutions as well. It takes almost literally everything breaking right to have both figured out with just in house options as of today. I agree maybe some of these margin adds just weren't worth it for what they ultimately went for, no issue sitting out Sogard at $5 mil or whatever, but they need to add a little more certainty on the depth levels (you aren't getting "impact" there). Holt, Pillar and Souza could go a long ways to adding some certainty and allow for a roster that makes some sense with platoon set ups at multiple spots. Holt/Nico could platoon at 2B, Heyward/Souza in RF, Happ/Pillar in CF, KB in LF with Bote at 3B vs LHP for example.

On the positive side, they seem to have done a nice job with the pen so far. IMO. They are taking the depth by numbers approach and at least are giving themselves a ton of options to cycle through and unlike last year where they were stuck with guys who didn't have options left (Kintzler, Strop, Brach, Cishek, Carl, etc) and had to ride them out. They now at least have guys who they can shuffle through more aggressively as the year goes on to try and figure out the last 1-2 spots. Again would be nice to have maybe 1-2 more spots of certainty in the pen but with bullpens that's always tough, you can at least see what they're trying to do.

I still disagree. This post is more a case of being frustrated with the lack of certainty on the roster than the depth. Depth is not certainty and certainty is not depth, if the Cubs are pretending to be poor then a path to getting a healthy mix of both almost requires a phase like this where neither is easy to see

- Almost if not all those guys listed literally had the worst years of their pro careers. Since future production isn't just determined by the latest season, particularly with some of the sample sizes these guys are working with and this offseason's spending on coaching and technology, there's more room for optimism and bounce back than the current doombonering is allowing. Then there's internal additions like Happ and Hoerner with more starter potential than any of those guys

- CF is deeper now than it's been since Fowler left with Happ and Hoerner in the mix along with Heyward, Almora and Kemp. What they lack is a clear and defined starter - not depth - and they've had this starter issue for years with fewer available bodies. (Slight aside from this depth convo: Ian Happ's shot to take this job outright in 2020 is underrated, nice mix of tools, skills, and the makeup to make it happen)

- The same approach you're praising them for with the bullpen is the same one they've taken at 2B and CF. There's a bunch of guys who may or may not be able to step up and make things work, a couple have the tools to make an impact, but very little certainty

[The_Achiever]

He might be Jon Jay (or worse) but this is the attainable/reasonably priced FA I wanted this offseason. So tired of the revolving door at leadoff and CF. We've never replaced what Fowler gave us in 15/16. Just someone to get on base at a good clip would be huge.

What a BS offseason this is. Just a few tweaks was all I was hoping for. FFS!

They should just make Rizzo the lead off hitter and be done with it.

It's fine for stretches but then you lose your most consistent middle of the order bat. Plus he's just a terrible baserunner.

I think they hung on to Almora too long. He's the guy I would have traded, and now his value has plummeted. I actually hope they just give the CF job to Happ and let him run with it. Still doesn't solve the leadoff issue though.

[TomtheBombadil]

It's fine for stretches but then you lose your most consistent middle of the order bat. Plus he's just a terrible baserunner.

I think they hung on to Almora too long. He's the guy I would have traded, and now his value has plummeted. I actually hope they just give the CF job to Happ and let him run with it. Still doesn't solve the leadoff issue though.

Putting a guy legitimately capable of a .400 OBP like Rizzo in the leadoff spot isn't going to hurt the middle of the order...If anything it would improve the chances of Bryant, Schwarber, and Contreras looking good which in turn will help guys like Happ at the bottom of the lineup

They definitely held onto Almora too long - tried to start him too long really - but right now he's closer to the team's 5th OFer spot right now than 3rd like he's been...As a 4th or 5th OFer they can do worse

[Cubswin11]

Yes? They gave 980 PAs to Almora, Descalso, Kemp, Russell, Cargo and Zagunis last year and have done nothing to improve on that. Russell was the only guy who produced positive WAR or a wRC+ over 77, everyone but Zagunis and Russell posted a wRC+ of 64 or lower. This also led to suboptimal things like Heyward having to face LHP far too often. Depth was and continues to be a major issue (Theo and Jed have literally said so themselves). I agree 2B can likely be solved in house with Nico/Happ/Bote.

I don't see how you can say with a straight face CF has multiple in house options currently, CF/OF definitely lacks depth and certainty right now (there's still major question marks and platoon issues, they need a RHH CF'er and a RHH option to platoon with Heyward and/or Schwarbs, which maybe that's KB). Part of the in house options in the OF include Happ and maybe even Nico right now too. Both clearly have flaws/questions and looking at them as CF/OF answers takes away from the 2B solutions as well. It takes almost literally everything breaking right to have both figured out with just in house options as of today. I agree maybe some of these margin adds just weren't worth it for what they ultimately went for, no issue sitting out Sogard at $5 mil or whatever, but they need to add a little more certainty on the depth levels (you aren't getting "impact" there). Holt, Pillar and Souza could go a long ways to adding some certainty and allow for a roster that makes some sense with platoon set ups at multiple spots. Holt/Nico could platoon at 2B, Heyward/Souza in RF, Happ/Pillar in CF, KB in LF with Bote at 3B vs LHP for example.

On the positive side, they seem to have done a nice job with the pen so far. IMO. They are taking the depth by numbers approach and at least are giving themselves a ton of options to cycle through and unlike last year where they were stuck with guys who didn't have options left (Kintzler, Strop, Brach, Cishek, Carl, etc) and had to ride them out. They now at least have guys who they can shuffle through more aggressively as the year goes on to try and figure out the last 1-2 spots. Again would be nice to have maybe 1-2 more spots of certainty in the pen but with bullpens that's always tough, you can at least see what they're trying to do.

I still disagree. This post is more a case of being frustrated with the lack of certainty on the roster than the depth. Depth is not certainty and certainty is not depth, if the Cubs are pretending to be poor then a path to getting a healthy mix of both almost requires a phase like this where neither is easy to see

- Almost if not all those guys listed literally had the worst years of their pro careers. Since future production isn't just determined by the latest season, particularly with some of the sample sizes these guys are working with and this offseason's spending on coaching and technology, there's more room for optimism and bounce back than the current doombonering is allowing. Then there's internal additions like Happ and Hoerner with more starter potential than any of those guys

- CF is deeper now than it's been since Fowler left with Happ and Hoerner in the mix along with Heyward, Almora and Kemp. What they lack is a clear and defined starter - not depth - and they've had this starter issue for years with fewer available bodies. (Slight aside from this depth convo: Ian Happ's shot to take this job outright in 2020 is underrated, nice mix of tools, skills, and the makeup to make it happen)

- The same approach you're praising them for with the bullpen is the same one they've taken at 2B and CF. There's a bunch of guys who may or may not be able to step up and make things work, a couple have the tools to make an impact, but very little certainty

You have far more faith than me in horsefeathers players suddenly turning back in to useful players in Almora, Descalso and Kemp. When it's not only most recent seasons but a larger body of work showing they just aren't very good. It has been said over and over, but Almora has literally been one of the worst ~5 players in MLB for 1.5 years now and at some point that is who he is and there's not a ton of past performance/pedigree to fall back on that he just needs more time. Some of the bench player adds that have been suggested are far more certain than bounce backs from them. We have CF depth on paper only, once you dig in to the likely value of guys and how they need to work platoon wise we are in trouble. I also think Happ and Nico do have plenty of starter potential in them, I wish at least one if not both had a more certain backup option/platoon partner with them then what's currently on the roster (Holt, Pillar, Cesar, etc). Banking on Nico especially seems a bit risky, especially as a CF'er since he's never played there before (I have faith he could figure it out but would be nice if he could start in AAA and work on it for a while along with some of the things we see with the bat that need to improve, him starting in AAA also means Almora/Descalso/Kemp are likely getting more PAs than they should).

I'd argue the approaches are not the same for bullpen and 2B/CF. Or at least shouldn't be the route taken. First we know bullpens are far more volatile, especially the last 1-2 spots. It's better to just throw 3-6 cheap bodies at that position than signing a Brach or whatever for the last 1-2 spots. It's far easier to lock in some certainty at 2B/CF than RP with some of the vet FA adds that were/are out there, they don't carry the same volatility that bullpen adds do (especially the cheap back/middle end FA RP types). I think we can be more certain Almora, Descalso and Kemp likely just suck and it's not like a RP who throws 95+ who just needs some tweaks to bounce back. Like Kevin Pillar has been worth at last 1.5 WAR for 5 straight years and over 2 in 4 of them. That's certainty to me.