Shogo

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Re: Shogo

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:45 pm

Wait till next year gif
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Re: Shogo

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:46 pm

The_Achiever wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
The_Achiever wrote:He might be Jon Jay (or worse) but this is the attainable/reasonably priced FA I wanted this offseason. So tired of the revolving door at leadoff and CF. We've never replaced what Fowler gave us in 15/16. Just someone to get on base at a good clip would be huge.

What a BS offseason this is. Just a few tweaks was all I was hoping for. FFS!

They should just make Rizzo the lead off hitter and be done with it.


It's fine for stretches but then you lose your most consistent middle of the order bat. Plus he's just a terrible baserunner.

You're still putting a guy who gets on base the most in the spot that gets the most ABs. Stack Rizzo/KB/Schwarbs 1-3 vs RHP and let them get on base and slug in front of Javy, Willy, etc. Good things will happen if you have your 1-3 hitters consistently getting on base. What good is a "middle of the order" bat if he has a guy hitting in front of him with a sub .300 OBP like Rizzo and KB have had for the last two years? Get some certainty up there and let the rest trickle down essentially. I'm not too worried about his base running, it sucks but it's not like he needs to start stealing or anything. Go something like:

Vs RHP
Rizzo 1B
KB 3B
Schwarbs LF
Javy SS
Heyward RF (contact behind Javy/OBP guys)
Willy C
Happ CF
P
Nico 2B
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Shogo

Postby Bull » Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:53 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
The_Achiever wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:They should just make Rizzo the lead off hitter and be done with it.


It's fine for stretches but then you lose your most consistent middle of the order bat. Plus he's just a terrible baserunner.

You're still putting a guy who gets on base the most in the spot that gets the most ABs. Stack Rizzo/KB/Schwarbs 1-3 vs RHP and let them get on base and slug in front of Javy, Willy, etc. Good things will happen if you have your 1-3 hitters consistently getting on base. What good is a "middle of the order" bat if he has a guy hitting in front of him with a sub .300 OBP like Rizzo and KB have had for the last two years? Get some certainty up there and let the rest trickle down essentially. I'm not too worried about his base running, it sucks but it's not like he needs to start stealing or anything.

Who is this “KB” you speak of?
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Re: Shogo

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:28 am

Cubswin11 wrote:You have far more faith than me in horsefeathers players suddenly turning back in to useful players in Almora, Descalso and Kemp. When it's not only most recent seasons but a larger body of work showing they just aren't very good. It has been said over and over, but Almora has literally been one of the worst ~5 players in MLB for 1.5 years now and at some point that is who he is and there's not a ton of past performance/pedigree to fall back on that he just needs more time. Some of the bench player adds that have been suggested are far more certain than bounce backs from them. We have CF depth on paper only, once you dig in to the likely value of guys and how they need to work platoon wise we are in trouble. I also think Happ and Nico do have plenty of starter potential in them, I wish at least one if not both had a more certain backup option/platoon partner with them then what's currently on the roster (Holt, Pillar, Cesar, etc). Banking on Nico especially seems a bit risky, especially as a CF'er since he's never played there before (I have faith he could figure it out but would be nice if he could start in AAA and work on it for a while amongst some of the things we see with the bat that need to improve).

I'd argue the approaches are not the same for bullpen and 2B/CF. Or at least shouldn't be the route taken. First we know bullpens are far more volatile, especially the last 1-2 spots. It's better to just throw 3-6 cheap bodies at that position than signing a Brach or whatever. It's far easier to lock in some certainty at 2B/CF with some of the vet FA adds that were/are out there, they don't carry the same volatility that bullpen adds do (especially the cheap back/middle end FA RP types) and we can be more certain Almora, Descalso and Kemp likely just suck and it's not like a RP who throws 95+ and just needs some tweaks to bounce back. Like Kevin Pillar has been worth at last 1.5 WAR for 5 straight years and over 2 in 4 of them. That's certainty to me


Eh, faith doesn't play much into anything I do for better and worse. This is more about two things:

- exploiting the equally massive leaps you have to take between - for example - Albert Almora being a predictably terrible starting CF on a WS contender (which I was calling way before it was cool and common) and Almora being completely useless and one of the 5 worst players in the MLB regardless or role or usage

- Not spending $4-10 million on bench, platoon, BOR, and MR talents during an offseason they're crying poor...most way older than current Cubs and also coming off down years or showing clear signs of decline (Holt, Pillar, Cesar, etc)...when the Cubs have a bunch of $2-3 or less guys with a shot at matching them

Neither 2B or CF is *banking* on Hoerner to produce, just leaving the door cracked open for him. In front of him at 2B is Bote, probably Happ, and even the opposite hand hitting Kemp and Desclasco just in case a platoon is necessary for either Bote or Happ. There's 4 guys on the CF depth chart ahead of him. The chances of Hoerner actually ending up starting in CF are extremely low and not really any higher than they would be by signing a 30+ FA.

I'd maintain that the bullpen/2B/CF approach is most generally the same, the big difference is that they shopped outside for the bullpen so it looks more appealing. Like if we're hard lining these guys on performance, there's no reason to be optimistic about CD Pehlam (who I like) or Fonz but super down on Ian Happ or a bench OF version of Slappy or a slightly elevated David Bote or even Tony Kemp and Descalso. I'd also argue that it's much closer to the route that should be taken since they refuse to go out and buy studs like they should have (like this roster + Gerrit Cole would have been the best team in baseball almost no contest, most definitely not the case with a Holt or Cesar or Sogard or Shogo). It's very similar to the Dodgers' approach that resulted in finding guys like Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and the other random $/WAR finds that Friedman gets anointed for or even the 2015-2016 Cubs with Chris Coghlan

Kevin Pillar's career high OBP in the MLs is .314, all the way back in 2015. He's still freely available to every team in baseball on the FA market and probably will be come Spring Training
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Re: Shogo

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:07 am

We've been arguing these same things, multiple times in multiple threads on the board all offseason. Your mind clearly isn't going to be changed off of thinking Almora is actually somehow good and useful on the roster in 2020 and the depth is somehow actually fine. We clearly disagree here. I don't think anyone enjoys seeing the back and forth either and taking up space in multiple threads rehashing the same horsefeathers. Let's just agree to disagree because it really isn't worth the time for either of us to continue this nonsense and doesn't really matter in the end. Theo is gonna do what he's gonna do.
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Re: Shogo

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:20 am

Cubswin11 wrote:We've been arguing these same things, multiple times in multiple threads on the board all offseason. Your mind clearly isn't going to be changed off of thinking Almora is actually somehow good and useful on the roster in 2020 and the depth is somehow actually fine. We clearly disagree here. I don't think anyone enjoys seeing the back and forth either and taking up space in multiple threads rehashing the same horsefeathers. Let's just agree to disagree because it really isn't worth the time for either of us to continue this nonsense and doesn't really matter in the end. Theo is gonna do what he's gonna do.


Interesting take out of everything I've said in these back and forths or even ever on Almora

Fair enough on agreeing to disagree. With that out of the way - can we not bring into every thread how desperate the Cubs are to get under the LT by trading Bryant while rehashing the same points? Like that's got to be annoying for everyone too, definitely gets my vote
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Re: Shogo

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:33 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:We've been arguing these same things, multiple times in multiple threads on the board all offseason. Your mind clearly isn't going to be changed off of thinking Almora is actually somehow good and useful on the roster in 2020 and the depth is somehow actually fine. We clearly disagree here. I don't think anyone enjoys seeing the back and forth either and taking up space in multiple threads rehashing the same horsefeathers. Let's just agree to disagree because it really isn't worth the time for either of us to continue this nonsense and doesn't really matter in the end. Theo is gonna do what he's gonna do.


Interesting take out of everything I've said in these back and forths or even ever on Almora

Fair enough on agreeing to disagree. With that out of the way - can we not bring into every thread how desperate the Cubs are to get under the LT by trading Bryant while rehashing the same points? Like that's got to be annoying for everyone too, definitely gets my vote

You literally spent 2-3 pages posting last week and posts in here saying Almora is actually a fine player and it’s fine if he’s part of the team next year and you’re implying the bench guys we have are fine. Don’t know how much else can be taken away from what you’ve said other than that. Derwood even called you out as the Almora defender or whatever the other day.

The latter part, sure I guess? But that’s literally information we’re hearing as a reason to why they may be moving him or why nothing is being done with adding guys yet. It’s dealing with relative facts and info we’ve heard. Any time a trade involving him comes up or us not making moves to date it’s because of the LT or the LT is playing a role in it. Unfortunately the LT is a part of discussing all this stuff if we want to talk about what’s going on in reality.
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Re: Shogo

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:49 am

Cubswin11 wrote:We've been arguing these same things, multiple times in multiple threads on the board all offseason. Your mind clearly isn't going to be changed off of thinking Almora is actually somehow good and useful on the roster in 2020 and the depth is somehow actually fine. We clearly disagree here.


Cubswin11 wrote:You literally spent 2-3 pages posting last week and posts in here saying Almora is actually a fine player and it’s fine if he’s part of the team next year and you’re implying the bench guys we have are fine. Don’t know how much else can be taken away from what you’ve said other than that. Derwood even called you out as the Almora defender or whatever the other day.

The latter part, sure I guess? But that’s literally information we’re hearing as a reason to why they may be moving him or why nothing is being done with adding guys yet. It’s dealing with relative facts and info we’ve heard. Any time a trade involving him comes up or us not making moves to date it’s because of the LT or the LT is playing a role in it. Unfortunately the LT is a part of discussing all this stuff if we want to talk about what’s going on in reality.



Appreciate you walking it back in one post since I know that's the best I'll get

I'm not not dealing with "relative facts" in the things I say and still would guess most people are tired of hearing that every mediocre or possible worse FA signing elsewhere or BN tweet is a clear sign that the Cubs' Plan A is to trade Bryant, probably Contreras and Quintana too. Unfortunately Almora and friends are on the roster and discussing the reality that they haven't always been useless trash (in fact, more often than not for many if we're locking in on reality) should be equally fair game as well. I don't see why it's OK that the Shogo thread became another Bryant and Contreras trade thread for a second there but a few posts about the CF depth without Shogo (or 2B without Hernandez/Sogard/whoever) is suddenly grounds for...this
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Re: Shogo

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:03 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:We've been arguing these same things, multiple times in multiple threads on the board all offseason. Your mind clearly isn't going to be changed off of thinking Almora is actually somehow good and useful on the roster in 2020 and the depth is somehow actually fine. We clearly disagree here.


Cubswin11 wrote:You literally spent 2-3 pages posting last week and posts in here saying Almora is actually a fine player and it’s fine if he’s part of the team next year and you’re implying the bench guys we have are fine. Don’t know how much else can be taken away from what you’ve said other than that. Derwood even called you out as the Almora defender or whatever the other day.

The latter part, sure I guess? But that’s literally information we’re hearing as a reason to why they may be moving him or why nothing is being done with adding guys yet. It’s dealing with relative facts and info we’ve heard. Any time a trade involving him comes up or us not making moves to date it’s because of the LT or the LT is playing a role in it. Unfortunately the LT is a part of discussing all this stuff if we want to talk about what’s going on in reality.



Appreciate you walking it back in one post since I know that's the best I'll get

You owned me there man, wow. Real difference in those words. Caught me clearly walking something back, saying a player is "fine" or "good" are two totally definitely different things.


I'm not not dealing with "relative facts" in the things I say and still would guess most people are tired of hearing that every mediocre or possible worse FA signing elsewhere or BN tweet is a clear sign that the Cubs' Plan A is to trade Bryant, probably Contreras and Quintana too. Unfortunately Almora and friends are on the roster and discussing the reality that they haven't always been useless trash (in fact, more often than not for many if we're locking in on reality) should be equally fair game as well. I don't see why it's OK that the Shogo thread became another Bryant and Contreras trade thread for a second there but a few posts about the CF depth without Shogo (or 2B without Hernandez/Sogard/whoever) is suddenly grounds for...this

I agree we are all tired of it, but everything that seems to be going on seems to point to those things being things that likely will happen and we're stuck with this LT horsefeathers. They've been useless trash more recently than not and for a decent amount of time with no indicators they can actually ever be good again.
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Re: Shogo

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:16 am

I just understood right away that's the best I was going to get

Cubswin11 wrote:I agree we are all tired of it, but everything that seems to be going on seems to point to those things being things that likely will happen and we're stuck with this LT horsefeathers.


That's all well and good to believe, still doesn't require every FA signing made by someone else - especially with the elite guys long gone and throughout any and every offseason thread - getting a multi-post run on how it's a clear sign that Plan A is trading Kris Bryant and probably Willson Contreras. Not to mention how the LT only seems to come into play for say keeping or signing elite players but not doubling, tripling, or more the salaries of the team's many bench and platoon options with guys like Akiyama, Sogard, Hernandez, Holt, Shaw, etc. Like if I'm being tedious by talking about the CF depth in the Shogo thread then it's definitely tedious to discuss how not signing a 32 YO CF with 0 ML PAs is yet another strong trading Bryant indicator
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Re: Shogo

Postby Outshined_One » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:25 pm

Welp, that's the end of this thread.
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