How do you fix the Cubs?

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UMFan83
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How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:36 pm

Sorry for anyone who clicked here hoping to see my plan. I’m not an ideas guy. But I am very interested in this topic. I have thought a lot about it and I have no horsefeathering clue how to fix the Cubs short and long term. The team is mediocre, is apparently maxed out on spending, all of their young talent that have proven to be quality big leaguers are out of here after 21(besides Contreras and Happ) so their value has dipped (not counting guys like Hendricks who issigned to post-arb contract). The farm system is still pretty meh and the team has shown very little ability to develop raw talent over the past 5 seasons.

I think this season is shot, next season is probably shot. They may be 85 win teams so I guess it could be worse but it’s not the team set up for success at all long term and after next year is ready to fall off a cliff if nothing is done. If you were Theo and you weren’t allowed to bolt (which could definitely happen), how would you change the course of the franchise around by 2022?
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby The_Achiever » Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:38 pm

Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Aug 29, 2020 8:23 pm

The_Achiever wrote:Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.


So we need a better Theo then? Because it took him 3 years of tanking.

Or are you suggesting something that isn’t a complete gut? In that case which current Cubs are still on your roster in 2022?

These are the players on the current roster that are under contract for the 2022 season:

Heyward
Darvish
Hendricks
Bote
Contreras (Walk year)
Almora (Walk year)
Kyle Ryan
Rhea
Tepera
Hoerner
Alzolay
Caratini
And a bunch of less notable pre-arb pen and bench guys

Possible extension candidates:

Rizzo
Bryant
Baez
Schwarber
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby champaignchris » Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:37 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
The_Achiever wrote:Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.


So we need a better Theo then? Because it took him 3 years of tanking.

Or are you suggesting something that isn’t a complete gut? In that case which current Cubs are still on your roster in 2022?

These are the players on the current roster that are under contract for the 2022 season:

Heyward
Darvish
Hendricks
Bote
Contreras (Walk year)
Almora (Walk year)
Kyle Ryan
Rhea
Tepera
Hoerner
Alzolay
Caratini
And a bunch of less notable pre-arb pen and bench guys

Possible extension candidates:

Rizzo
Bryant
Baez
Schwarber


Happ seems like a pretty big omission here. He will be in his 2nd year of arbitration.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:43 pm

champaignchris wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:
The_Achiever wrote:Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.


So we need a better Theo then? Because it took him 3 years of tanking.

Or are you suggesting something that isn’t a complete gut? In that case which current Cubs are still on your roster in 2022?

These are the players on the current roster that are under contract for the 2022 season:

Heyward
Darvish
Hendricks
Bote
Contreras (Walk year)
Almora (Walk year)
Kyle Ryan
Rhea
Tepera
Hoerner
Alzolay
Caratini
And a bunch of less notable pre-arb pen and bench guys

Possible extension candidates:

Rizzo
Bryant
Baez
Schwarber


Happ seems like a pretty big omission here. He will be in his 2nd year of arbitration.


This is why I’m the ideas man! Yeah somehow missed him
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby Bertz » Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:14 pm

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. The Ricketts are not going to buy their way into fixing it. You also probably can't do a full teardown this winter, since the vast majority of owners are going to use Covid as cover to be cheap. So the two most obvious ways of addressing the situation are out.

My current thought is to trade Willson and Happ this winter. The two of them are likely due ~$10M combined, so they'll be very high in demand this winter. Now that he's a good framer, Willson is very comparable to JT Realmuto at the time the Phillies' acquired him. That was two top 100 prospects, one of whom was major league ready, and a couple other guys. I don't have a super great read on Happ's value, but I would think with the extra year of control but the shorter track record it'd be comparable?

Otherwise, you leave the rest of "the core" here for one last hurrah, filling in the gaps with the guys you bring back in trade and a bunch of short term guys (there's likely to be a small army of non-tenders this winter). The team's probably in a similar position to this year, with a mid 80's talent but a division that still leaves them modest favorites. Lack of depth means a pretty high bust potential, but also some very talented guys will all be in contract years, so they could still end up very dangerous.

Then next year as important as winning games is evaluation. Which (if any) of KB/Rizzo/Javy/Schwarber do you resign? After pressing pause for a year, how close are the reinforcements from the farm? Are Darvish and Kyle still awesome? Answers to these questions help decide whether this is a 1-2 year retool or a 3-4 year rebuild.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby The_Achiever » Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:02 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
The_Achiever wrote:Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.


So we need a better Theo then? Because it took him 3 years of tanking.

Or are you suggesting something that isn’t a complete gut? In that case which current Cubs are still on your roster in 2022?

These are the players on the current roster that are under contract for the 2022 season:

Heyward
Darvish
Hendricks
Bote
Contreras (Walk year)
Almora (Walk year)
Kyle Ryan
Rhea
Tepera
Hoerner
Alzolay
Caratini
And a bunch of less notable pre-arb pen and bench guys

Possible extension candidates:

Rizzo
Bryant
Baez
Schwarber


There’s probably a bit more to work with this time, it could be done in 2.

Also isn’t Happ still under contract in 2022?
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:09 pm

Make the playoffs and win the World Series this year and who cares, imo
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby Bote McBoteface » Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:21 pm

Pay the other pitchers to throw our guys meatballs, that way they look like they’re as good as we thought they’d be.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:52 am

Step 1: Fire Almora into the Sun
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit (but hopefully not for PTR)
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby Backtobanks » Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:06 am

Find a new ownership group that would make an offer that PTR couldn't refuse.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:08 am

Backtobanks wrote:Find a new ownership group that would make an offer that PTR couldn't refuse.

Should we pass a hat around and see where we are at?
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby Andy » Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:18 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Make the playoffs and win the World Series this year and who cares, imo

In a short series, a locked in Hendricks and Darvish can be deadly. I'm fairly bullish on our chances in the postseason, although admittedly it'll probably also take at minimum Kimbrel to be in badass mode.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:08 am

Andy wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Make the playoffs and win the World Series this year and who cares, imo

In a short series, a locked in Hendricks and Darvish can be deadly. I'm fairly bullish on our chances in the postseason, although admittedly it'll probably also take at minimum Kimbrel to be in badass mode.


About that...
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:25 am

I'm definitely not writing off this season or next. In my eyes, the only NL teams with a shot at winning the WS this year are the Cubs and Doyers

Philosophically the biggest change necessary from the FO is being way more aggressive with prospects. Playing the service time games of the 2010s is a complete waste of time with the way the game is going and kills them in trades. Not to mention that the post-Bryant crowd of prospects are just way, way cheaper. Howard's the only prospect to sign for more than $3 million since Happ and Eddy Martinez during Summer 2015, and those guys were the lowest bonuses the Cubs paid out to a top ranked IFA or top 10 draftee from 2012-2015. A more hip and cool org goal would be to graduate a star or two by 21-22, even think a few guys in the org have that potential (Davis, Howard, Gallardo). Some suggestions include: call up Davis in 2020, start him in AA during 2021, both Howard and Gallardo on the SB club next year and maybe even finishing on this year's 60...

As far as payroll moving forward...MLBTRs got them committed to as little as $54 million by 2022 and less than $100 million going into next year. They're something like 14th in committed payroll over the next 5 years. Between the owners and their schills getting to cry more poor than usual, seemingly planning to flood the FA market this year, I think there's going to be way too much talent available at prices well below what they'd be worth even in the dying pre-COVID amateur and FA markets to not be buyers
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby 17 Seconds » Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:28 am

you don't
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:05 am

mess with
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:14 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:As far as payroll moving forward...MLBTRs got them committed to as little as $54 million by 2022 and less than $100 million going into next year. They're something like 14th in committed payroll over the next 5 years. Between the owners and their schills getting to cry more poor than usual, seemingly planning to flood the FA market this year, I think there's going to be way too much talent available at prices well below what they'd be worth even in the dying pre-COVID amateur and FA markets to not be buyers


I mean that’s great and all but most of that money coming off the books is basically our team. Meaning we won’t have spending money to supplement the holes on our roster, we will need all that money to build a roster because our farm system hasn’t produced horsefeathers recently. If the Ricketts family insists on a spending cap, the Cubs either need to develop talent or hit nearly 100% on their FA signings, 2 areas that the Cubs haven’t exactly been good at for the past few years.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:20 am

Image

Strap in for several years of TONS of people shooting up the season ticket wait list, folks.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:27 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Step 1: Fire Almora into the Sun
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit (but hopefully not for PTR)

that is so funny how your phone autocorrects kimbrel to almora
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sun Aug 30, 2020 6:00 am

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Step 1: Fire Almora into the Sun
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit (but hopefully not for PTR)

that is so funny how your phone autocorrects kimbrel to almora

You say 5.98 xFIP, I say 49 wRC+, let's call the whole thing off.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby toonsterwu » Sun Aug 30, 2020 6:14 am

I think you sort of play out the string. There's justifications to go all sorts of ways (being hyper-aggressive for one last run, tanking and selling for a new cycle), but I think the least exciting route might simply be the most prudent route. You let this core play out the string. Hey, if someone comes along and offers an unexpected return for say, Schwarber, you pull the trigger, but otherwise, you just count down on it. Make some determinations on who can be signed long term and help build the next window. The current core as is isn't great, but it's competitive, and you hope for a little luck to go along with it while you play out the string.

Thing is, as was hit upon, the trade value of most of our assets have declined to the point where unless we do a full sell-off, it's hard to see how we get enough in return to facilitate a quick rebuild. A partial sell-off never made that much sense to me - say you move one or two pieces and keep everyone else - well, you probably won't get a top tier return, and you aren't really tanking, so you end up a below-average middling team without significantly improving your prospect base.

If you get lucky, you push some chips in to create a run, but you absolutely don't push all your chips in, a la the Eloy/Cease/Gleyber moves, as the window is on the down slope. The system isn't as ... eh ... as it was several years ago, and there are some bright spots, with real excitement for some impact potential, but it thins out fairly fast. Almost all systems gave some guys to hope on, so any commentary is really commentary on an improvement from the last couple years, and we have to wait and see if the organization has figured out their problems in assessing and developing pitching (I do like Franklin a fair amount).

Playing out the string sounds awful ... it's not exciting, it's not game-changing, but it might just be the right course to take.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby abohnhoff » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:14 pm

So whats the most logical solution for Contreras, Schwarber, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant extensions/trades/FA?

At most they re-sign 2, maybe 3 of them? Theres no way Rizzo ever gets traded. I'd think Baez is close to that territory.
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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:52 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Make the playoffs and win the World Series this year and who cares, imo


What's interesting is that I agree 100 percent with this statement, but I read it in a different way than you intended.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: How do you fix the Cubs?

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Aug 30, 2020 6:29 pm

We need to focus on developing from the farm system and getting a consistent pipeline from the minor leagues. That’s something we have never tried before and it’s the only way to have sustained success.
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