2020 Offseason Thread

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2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Post Count Padder » Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:49 pm

Let's get horsefeathering wild. What do you do?

Sign JBJ and LeMahieu. Add to the pen, some good relievers on the market. I'm honestly fine with the rotation including Yu, Hendricks, Alzolay and Mills but really need a good No. 3 starter. Revamp the bench. Give Nico a little more time in the minors.

Or maybe there won't be a next season and it's all a mess.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby PackLandVA » Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:53 pm

Spend a bazillion dollars and sign the top 6-8 Free Agents.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:35 pm

Post Count Padder wrote:Let's get horsefeathering wild. What do you do?

Sign JBJ and LeMahieu. Add to the pen, some good relievers on the market. I'm honestly fine with the rotation including Yu, Hendricks, Alzolay and Mills but really need a good No. 3 starter. Revamp the bench. Give Nico a little more time in the minors.

Or maybe there won't be a next season and it's all a mess.


Obviously, Lemahieu would be a great addition, but where are we getting the money to sign him?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:05 pm

I will pound the table, poooound it, for Lindor, Stroman, and Zack Britton until they are on new teams

Last year's FA class set a record for MiL and split contracts and there's rumors of teams flooding FA with minor leaguers this year, so all ownership really has to do is approve being slightly less scummy than everyone else will be acting probably
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:47 pm

They are horsefeathers. It’s over. It doesn’t matter. They are done.
2022 is the best chance they have if they can clear some money and not commit any money past. They should hit a firm reset this offseason and just bottom out. Non-tender Schwarbs, don’t give Rizzo a big deal and don’t pick up the option, trade KB for 40 cents on the dollar, etc burn it down. horsefeathers em all.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:09 am

It's really hard to say where payroll is going to be this offseason, and that obviously informs what's possible. I'm hoping that with Marquee going full force they still run something like $200M, but safe bet is always going to be that the Ricketts will disappoint.

I mentioned this in the game thread, aside from Heyward the FO can potentially clean the slate this winter. There are currently only five guaranteed deals on the team: Yu, Kyle, Bote, Kimbrel, and Heyward. The first three are clearly positive value, and Heyward's clearly immovable. Kimbrel's harder to say, but he's looked like 2018 Kimbrel for the last 6 weeks. I'd bet that's enough for teams to consider him fixed and take on his money.

I 100% trade Willson this winter. With him actually being valuable and Caratini and Amaya behind him he's gotta go. Bryant as well. I'd rather have Bote starting and ~$22M to spend than Bryant for next year. He'll probably bring back a couple of fun arms but honestly I trade him regardless of the return. Anything beyond that depends on how high payroll can go, though Schwarber probably goes for me as well.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:31 am

keep: rizzo, baez, bryant
trade: happ, schwarber, willson
i simply don't give a horsefeathers: every other position player

i say keep baez/bryant because i don't think they have great value and i'd rather hope for a rebound and maybe for a team friendly extension (i still think this happens with javy)
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:13 pm

Billy Owens, the assistant GM for the A's, is a popular candidate for the Mets' GM job or at least to join their org. That would be great for him and a good choice by them, but also would eliminate one of the better candidates for the Cubs in 2022. He's been with the A's nearly 20 years, started off as a scout for them

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-pat-ro ... 53547.html
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:50 am

Tigers are shopping for a bat first catcher, from MLBTR:

“With those three guys, you might be able to get through the season,” Avila said. “We’re happy with the defense, but we’d like to have an upgrade on the offensive side. We’re hopeful that Jake is that guy.”


Who says no first

Tigers get: Contreras, Almora CF
Cubs get: Tarik Skubal LHSP, Daz Cameron CF, Beau Burrows RHP, Daniel Cabrera OF

??
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:11 am



We know most teams are going to cut spending this winter. Here, we finally get some numbers for a team. The Rangers are cutting payroll by about 1/3rd, from ~150 to ~100, though it sounds like they were already planning to do some cutting pre-COVID. I wouldn't be surprised if we see most teams cut something like 10-20%. This FA market is going to be a bloodbath.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:09 am

I think I would not be surprised by anything this offseason. Heck, it starts with this Epstein/Ricketts meeting. Would it be absolutely stunning if both guys decided that his run was done and mutually split? I wouldn't be shocked. The organization is bogged down. In some respects, it happened quick.
As interesting as some of the guys in the minors are, honestly, most systems have a few guys of top intrigue.

You could run it back. With Darvish/Hendricks, you have a capable top two. Add a bat for the top of the order (I'm still mildly curious which Marlin critiqued our bats), hope Baez bounces back after this strange season, and you achieve better balance. Get lucky with the pen, and hey, short series, who knows. Still, we've been saying that for a couple years now.

I guess you could hope the ownership says screw it up and spends a crapload. I don't that's realistic.

I'm leaning towards blowing it up, to be honest. We aren't the A's (I believe Forst gave an interview saying they could never blow things up like some other organizations, for fear of losing their fan base). I think this team has a ceiling now - this core isn't a championship level core anymore. It's a good enough core that will be a winning club if it's kept together, but to win a title, it would need some luck. I'm not reading too much into some of the offensive performances this year, but the general trajectory of the organization the last few. With age and contracts, and the bloated contracts constricting movement, and the unknown of how payrolls will look next year, it feels like this window is ending soon. You could hold on for a year, but then trade value goes down (you could possibly even argue that we held on one year too long).

If you blow it up, though, you should blow it up. Don't half it. Go all the way. Put everything out there and see what you can. The return for KB probably won't be as good as anyone expects, but with enough teams desperate for a big bat, it's possible (still think the NL East is the likely target there). Contreras could get moved even if they don't blow it up - I like the Tigers idea above, but he should generate a decent market if he's out there. Off the top, we have a reasonable option on Rizzo, right? I half-wonder if there's any way we could pick up the option and move him. It'd be a bit cold-hearted, as I'm sure Rizzo would prefer to pick and choose and sign for more than 1 year, but feels like some team might give up something for 1 year of him, and we could pick up some of the costs to help a return. If you burn it down, I'd shop Happ as well - I wonder if he gets better than this, and if not, some team might buy him on his performance, along with multiple years of control.

___

In saying all that, I think Option A, running it back, is most likely. Many teams look to be paring payroll. It'd be sort of a last hurrah for ... well, everyone - Epstein, Rizzo, Bryant, Lester (buyout seems a lock, but it's not hard to see them agree to a cheap 1 year deal), Kimbrel and so forth. I'm not against it, but I'd like to see some substantive moves. Shop Contreras in this situation - he's at the age where the wear and tear may start to accumulate, but still, young enough that with his track record, you might get something decent. I really wonder about the Padres - Preller's had a history of all-in gambits in the past, and with a young team whose window is now, Contreras would offer a better backstop.

___

Don't know what happens, but I'm mildly ... not upset they were beat. Hope it gets some creativity flowing in the FO.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:47 am

Orgs I think will offer the most for Contreras:

Rays - Catcher's been a multi-year hole, will like the multiple years of control, have the prospect depth

Angels - Another multi-year hole at the position, likely out of FA money, desperate to make the playoffs

Jays - I think the Blue Jays like Danny Jansen but expected more bat especially after his debut. Contreras would bring some experience to a very young lineup, also RHH power and OBP from catcher. Ross Atkins positioned them as buyers:

MLBTR wrote:Ross Atkins told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi) that despite all the financial uncertainty caused by the pandemic, “the quickest way to recovery is winning. The quickest way to getting our business back to a very good financial spot is winning and our ownership knows that.”


Tigers - Looking for offense at catcher, have some high end bats coming through (Torkelson, Greene) to join a promising young lineup, and have some young pitchers (Mize, Boyd, Manning, Jimenez in the bullpen) that might appreciate throwing to a starting catcher with some character/experience

Rockies - Another bad catching + excellent young pitching (German Marquez!!) + pressure to win + interesting enough prospects situation. I would like a Rolison (don't kill him for the Cal!) + Toglia/Lavigne + Helcris Olivarez haul
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby champaignchris » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:10 pm

Me, personally, my preference would be...

1. The consensus is that teams aren’t going to be generous with free agent signings. So if you’re going to splurge, this would be the year to do it... go get Springer, Semien, Bauer, Stroman, and Colome. Damn the torpedoes. Full speed ahead. Buy another World Series.

But, since we all know that’s not happening...

2. Tear the whole thing down. If they’re not going to be a contributor come 2023, jettison them. Unfortunately that would probably mean that Yu and Hendricks have to go and that makes me sad, but you gotta do it. Restock the system. Go dumpster diving for cheap lottery tickets. Aim to be competitive again in 2023.

But, most likely...

3. Let it ride for one more season. Sign a free agent pitcher. Mess around with the end of the bench and the back of the bullpen. Wash, rinse, repeat. Hope the playoffs stay at 16 teams and you can squeak back in with an 83-win team.
Last edited by champaignchris on Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tim » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:14 pm

I don't see teams being willing to give up much in trade this year for guys at expensive points of arbitration. Free agents are going to come at a relative discount, so it makes no sense to trade for guys getting expensive arbitration agreements.

I don't see Theo being willing to take pennies on the dollar for his guys.

I think we ultimately mess around at the edges and bring back largely the same team next year.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:43 pm

Tim wrote:I don't see teams being willing to give up much in trade this year for guys at expensive points of arbitration. Free agents are going to come at a relative discount, so it makes no sense to trade for guys getting expensive arbitration agreements.

I don't see Theo being willing to take pennies on the dollar for his guys.

I think we ultimately mess around at the edges and bring back largely the same team next year.


To me, this is the nightmare scenario. If the core guys don't have value in trade, then let them go. Everyone is on non-guaranteed deals, there's no gun to the FO's head forcing them to keep the band together. And we've seen that for whatever reason (the velocity thing sounds pretty compelling to me), the whole has consistently been less than the sum of its parts with this group. I understand not going scorched earth, as I imagine for each individual the smart money is on a bounceback. But there's no reason we should be betting on four concurrent bouncebacks. And certainly not spending ~$70M for the privilege.

Do something to start working towards the next great Cubs team. I personally think the pitching is good enough and the division is bad enough that you can do a "retool not rebuild" kind of thing. But even if you don't, start the teardown process now. You don't have to make nine trades this winter to tear it down to the studs in one go, but make like three.

The FA market is also going to be absolutely flooded with mid level players this year. For a front office that prides themselves so much on their talent evaluation, this is what they're so highly compensated for. If Theo wants to continue being the highest paid non-player in baseball, he probably can't just sit on his hands for a third straight offseason.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 05, 2020 3:20 pm

Bertz wrote:To me, this is the nightmare scenario. If the core guys don't have value in trade, then let them go. Everyone is on non-guaranteed deals, there's no gun to the FO's head forcing them to keep the band together. And we've seen that for whatever reason (the velocity thing sounds pretty compelling to me), the whole has consistently been less than the sum of its parts with this group. I understand not going scorched earth, as I imagine for each individual the smart money is on a bounceback. But there's no reason we should be betting on four concurrent bouncebacks. And certainly not spending ~$70M for the privilege.

Do something to start working towards the next great Cubs team. I personally think the pitching is good enough and the division is bad enough that you can do a "retool not rebuild" kind of thing. But even if you don't, start the teardown process now. You don't have to make like trades this winter to tear it down to the studs in one go, but make like three.

The FA market is also going to be absolutely flooded with mid level players this year. For a front office that prides themselves so much on their talent evaluation, this is what they're so highly compensated for. If Theo wants to continue being the highest paid non-player in baseball, he probably can't just sit on his hands for a third straight offseason.


No reason? They just played a *60* game, pandemic season in which those guys won the division without ever getting going (well, after the Cardinals interrupted a 13-3 start including a 5-1 run with a week off), and those guys put up 15 rWAR/15.8 fWAR in 2019. Does their collective price tag even hit $70 million, which isn't a high price for even an average year out of this bunch?

The next great Cubs team is already in the works: Davis is a universal sleeper and made the 60 after skipping a level into full season ball last year, Carraway is an excellent prospect at one of the most consistent holes on the roster - a LH reliever bonus for a badass fastball, Howard and Quintero are the two most expensive bonuses they've handed out since Bryant himself, they're signing their highest ranked IFA since Jimenez/Torres in January, there's serious pitching prospects...These are all things people will write when the script flips

Historically, selling in trades sucks. I think you *might* get a good deal for Contreras because he's never even made $5 million in the league and has multiple years of control while also being a rare enough player - a power hitting everyday catch who is viable defensively - but the chances of pulling of *3* deals as a seller that don't hurt much much much much much more than they help is probably extremely low
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 05, 2020 3:56 pm



Won the division...Increased viewership and a top 4 finish there...Ownership invested in and trying to build their new propaganda network...hard payroll commits in the middle of the pack over the next ~half decade....Are these normal indicators for a big market team who needs *another* multi-year reshuffle, rebuild, retool, whatever the rebuzzword will be? I submit that they are not!
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby CubinNY » Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:57 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1312569018126077952?s=19

We know most teams are going to cut spending this winter. Here, we finally get some numbers for a team. The Rangers are cutting payroll by about 1/3rd, from ~150 to ~100, though it sounds like they were already planning to do some cutting pre-COVID. I wouldn't be surprised if we see most teams cut something like 10-20%. This FA market is going to be a bloodbath.

If everybody is selling who's going to be buying?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:50 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1312569018126077952?s=19

We know most teams are going to cut spending this winter. Here, we finally get some numbers for a team. The Rangers are cutting payroll by about 1/3rd, from ~150 to ~100, though it sounds like they were already planning to do some cutting pre-COVID. I wouldn't be surprised if we see most teams cut something like 10-20%. This FA market is going to be a bloodbath.

If everybody is selling who's going to be buying?


In terms of teams who are going to net add payroll, I'd guess we could count them on one hand. Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays all look likely. White Sox and Nats wouldn't be shocking. And maybe one or two of the rebuilding teams might try to take advantage and start shopping early? But mostly it's going to be teams moving payroll around, e.g. let's say the Cubs traded Baez and signed Marcus Semien. In that scenario they're not adding money, but they are still buying. It sounds like we're going to see a record number of non-tenders this winter, so I expect to see a lot of "team X cuts $40M in arb players and adds back $25-30M in FA." It's going to be ugly.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:56 pm

Yeah I just hope we put ourselves in a spot to be able to spend $25-40 mil in FA. Call it adding or reshuffling. But to do that it probably requires moving Willy for some prospects, non-tendering Schwarbs and moving Kimbrel and part of his $ at least. Also the KB NT is probably on the table. The FA market is going to be so depressed and there’s going to be a lot of intriguing non-tenders I just hope whatever the plan is it allows us to add some stuff in it to more re-tool than blow it up (though we do need healthy turnover because the team is broke with the makeup and redundancies) because we will still likely be the best team in the division going in to next year.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:59 pm

My favorite moment of today's end of year presser with Epstein was when he offered to dive in deep on the differences in sample between 60 and 162 games and the media instead chose to keep asking questions about his role (which is what opened the conference). It just seems very telling of sports "journalism" and how so much energy is put towards rumor and narrative, always owner friendly for some unknowable reason, over at least trying to present as much real, meaningful information as possible all the time. Wtf do they expect him to say about his role that was different from just a few minutes ago? What would it have hurt to get an Official Take on the subject?

Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah I just hope we put ourselves in a spot to be able to spend $25-40 mil in FA. Call it adding or reshuffling. But to do that it probably requires moving Willy for some prospects, non-tendering Schwarbs and moving Kimbrel and part of his $ at least. Also the KB NT is probably on the table. The FA market is going to be so depressed and there’s going to be a lot of intriguing non-tenders I just hope whatever the plan is it allows us to add some stuff in it to more re-tool than blow it up (though we do need healthy turnover because the team is broke with the makeup and redundancies) because we will still likely be the best team in the division going in to next year.


I think all of these things are more "on the table" than on the table. It's dramatic and we want that, yes, but also crazy inefficient and too driven by emotion

Trading guys like Contreras, Bote, Almora, fringe pitchers (Underwood, Maples, Miller) makes much more sense - still talking $10+ million off a payroll that's already dropping several ML contracts (Chatwood, Quintana, Lester?, Kipnis, Souza, whoever I'm forgetting)
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:21 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:My favorite moment of today's end of year presser with Epstein was when he offered to dive in deep on the differences in sample between 60 and 162 games and the media instead chose to keep asking questions about his role (which is what opened the conference). It just seems very telling of sports "journalism" and how so much energy is put towards rumor and narrative, always owner friendly for some unknowable reason, over at least trying to present as much real, meaningful information as possible all the time. Wtf do they expect him to say about his role that was different from just a few minutes ago? What would it have hurt to get an Official Take on the subject?

Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah I just hope we put ourselves in a spot to be able to spend $25-40 mil in FA. Call it adding or reshuffling. But to do that it probably requires moving Willy for some prospects, non-tendering Schwarbs and moving Kimbrel and part of his $ at least. Also the KB NT is probably on the table. The FA market is going to be so depressed and there’s going to be a lot of intriguing non-tenders I just hope whatever the plan is it allows us to add some stuff in it to more re-tool than blow it up (though we do need healthy turnover because the team is broke with the makeup and redundancies) because we will still likely be the best team in the division going in to next year.


I think all of these things are more "on the table" than on the table. It's dramatic and we want that, yes, but also crazy inefficient and too driven by emotion

Trading guys like Contreras, Bote, Almora, fringe pitchers (Underwood, Maples, Miller) makes much more sense - still talking $10+ million off a payroll that's already dropping several ML contracts (Chatwood, Quintana, Lester?, Kipnis, Souza, whoever I'm forgetting)

The money falling off of guys leaving isn’t enough to do any real adds. They almost certainly are going to be running a lower payroll in 2021 and be well below the LT. They won’t be close to anywhere we were in 2020-2019 in terms of payroll/LT. You need to clear more money than just the “money falling off” to really add anything.

Right now Spotrac has us at $110 mil before arb, I’d assume after adding arb in is where we are going to end up payroll wise overall ($160-170 mil) on the year. We aren’t touching that $190-200+ range we have been.

They need to do a Schwarbs NT, Willy trade and Kimbrel (at least partial money) trade to clear any decent amount of FA money. lol at the idea of trading Bote or Almora accomplishing this. Bote makes no money for 1, he should be kept and has nominal trade value and looking to trade Almora over just non-tendering him is a waste of time just NT him.

But yes, if we assume they can somehow spend to just below the LT and the goal is to just not be third time repeaters then I wouldn’t do any of these moves except maybe the Schwarbs one and of course the Albert one.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby champaignchris » Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:25 pm

I think the minimum the Cubs would have to do to stay under the luxury tax and credibly claim to be trying to compete would be to sign the following:

Near starting quality middle infielder - Asdrubal Cabrera or similar
Fourth outfielder - [expletive] Hernandez or similar
3/4 slot starting pitcher - re-sign Jose Quintana or similar
High (-ish) leverage lefty reliever - Justin Wilson or similar

I’m not the payroll expert some are in here, but I think the Cubs could spend approx $40MM and stay under the tax.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:27 pm

champaignchris wrote:I think the minimum the Cubs would have to do to stay under the luxury tax and credibly claim to be trying to compete would be to sign the following:

Near starting quality middle infielder - Asdrubal Cabrera or similar
Fourth outfielder - [expletive] Hernandez or similar
3/4 slot starting pitcher - re-sign Jose Quintana or similar
High (-ish) leverage lefty reliever - Justin Wilson or similar

I’m not the payroll expert some are in here, but I think the Cubs could spend approx $40MM and stay under the tax.

Yeah they have about $40 mil in room but I’d find it hard to believe they’re going to run up close to the just under the LT number again this year. I’d love for them to do it and they absolutely should. I just expect they’re going to stay more in the $155-170 range payroll wise. Which is pretty much where we are at with the current roster after adding in arbitration.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:57 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:The money falling off of guys leaving isn’t enough to do any real adds. They almost certainly are going to be running a lower payroll in 2021 and be well below the LT. They won’t be close to anywhere we were in 2020-2019 in terms of payroll/LT. You need to clear more money than just the “money falling off” to really add anything.

Right now Spotrac has us at $110 mil before arb, I’d assume after adding arb in is where we are going to end up payroll wise overall ($160-170 mil) on the year. We aren’t touching that $190-200+ range we have been.

They need to do a Schwarbs NT, Willy trade and Kimbrel (at least partial money) trade to clear any decent amount of FA money. lol at the idea of trading Bote or Almora accomplishing this. Bote makes no money for 1, he should be kept and has nominal trade value and looking to trade Almora over just non-tendering him is a waste of time just NT him.


Bote's $3 million against the LT which is > no money. What's nominal trade value here? He's an infielder in his 20s at a non-1B position with some power and patience and 4 years at low prices left. In an offseason in which most players will be defined by salary and control, what's not to like about that position? So long as they're shopping realistically, not every move has to be The One that will save The Future, there's no reason to think they couldn't get a desirable enough pitcher in a deal. Same thing for Slaps, the league is still short on CFs and he's cheap, young, and under control for multiple seasons

As far as the payroll stuff...You're talking lopping an additional ~$30 million on top of the at least $30 million coming off after going from 3rd in payroll in 2019 to 7th in 2020...That just doesn't add up IMO and I'm not even calling for a $190-200+ payroll, which would require some $100+ million being added to what's already committed in 2021 according to MLBTR...

I'd rather see them in position to rack up a bunch of draft picks in 2022 than do anything rash with the 1 year guys (Schwaber, Bryant, Baez, Rizzo)
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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