2020 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:08 am

Who says no first here

Mariners get: Nico Hoerner 2B/MIF
Cubs get: Taylor Trammell CF/OF

??

Why Mariners do it: Mariners have Lewis, Moore, Haniger, Fraley, Bishop, Kelenic, and Rodriguez ahead of or around Trammell in their OF mix, would have an elite defensive MIF with Crawford/Hoerner by 2022 and a still star studded, high offense OF, have a LHH bat first 2B option in Shed Long to maybe work Hoerner in without going back to the minors

Why Cubs: Basically a swing at a Urias/Grisham-esque trade but with a longer schedule than 60 games in mind so less expectations on the bat and more on just general utility. Trammell's some 1800+ pro PAs including AA so just plug him in as 5th OFer, works best finding a RHH CF capable OF as at least the 4th OF
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:10 pm

I would still like to see a deal with the Pirates.

Bote + Mills for Murgrove + Frasier.

The Pirates save some money and the Cubs get a dependable 2B and SP.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:02 pm

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/ ... an-arenado

The aggressiveness of the Blue Jays, and to a lesser extent the Mets, combined with the market's silence could leave an impression that they're the only two teams willing to dish out big money this winter. That's not the case. Teams, sources said, are simply being strategic with their approaches, cognizant that the uncertainty of the season allows them such a delay. Players' frustration with that approach is perfectly understandable and adds to the undercurrent of animus between the sides, even with a number of deals -- James McCann, Mike Minor, Carlos Santana, Robbie Ray, Adam Eaton and Anthony DeSclafani -- seen as player-friendly.

The Nationals' interest in Realmuto follows their template of building around stars. Minnesota, sources said, is expected to be active. Boston might not be in on the big names, but the Red Sox are players in the next tier. The Braves probably have one more move to make. The Dodgers need a third baseman -- and, if Bauer's market collapses, might be in on a short-term deal. The Astros might be the next team to sign a player; they were aggressive in the past week across various parts of the market, including relief pitchers, according to sources.

The two mysteries: the Los Angeles Angels and the Philadelphia Phillies. So far, the Angels have value-shopped. They're in the starting-pitcher market. But Bauer? The last time they spent big on a pitcher was in 2012 on C.J. Wilson's five-year, $77.5 million deal. Over that time, he produced 5.7 wins above replacement. Since hiring Dave Dombrowski as president of baseball operations, the Phillies have suggested they do not have significant money to spend, according to sources -- unless they re-sign Realmuto. Should he go elsewhere, the money earmarked for him might not wind up in the pockets of other free agents.


Passan with a list of teams you should probably expect some spending from this offseason
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:25 pm

ZiPs are out:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-p ... cago-cubs/

If you can move past the doom and gloom overview article there's at least a few positives in there:

- ZiPs is on board with Darvish and Hendricks

- Abbott, Marquez, Stock, Steele, Kimbrel, Bourque, Holder, Patterson, W. Short, DJ Snelten, and Weick are some of the in-house non-Darvish and Hendricks pitchers that don't have horrendous projections

- Bryant and Baez with 3 fWAR projections even after a disastrous 2020 shows how high they each set the bar before

- ZiPs like Amaya's power (.175 IsoSLG as a catcher with zero AA or higher experience in these projections)

- Mostly believes in Heyward's 2020, .346 OBP is nice

- Brennen Davis, who hasn't taken a PA above A ball, got a 200+ IsoSLG and a league average K rate
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby grassbass » Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:28 pm

Backtobanks wrote:I would still like to see a deal with the Pirates.

Bote + Mills for Murgrove + Frasier.

The Pirates save some money and the Cubs get a dependable 2B and SP.


I don't see how Frazier is an upgrade over Bote, especially when Bote is locked in at $3 mil per season for awhile and Frazier could exceed that in arbitration in 2021. Yeah, Musgrove could be an improvement over Mills, especially if his strikeout rate wasn't some 2020 short-season fluke. But I'm not sure that's the deal the Cubs should be making if they're pinching pennies.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:32 pm

grassbass wrote:I don't see how Frazier is an upgrade over Bote, especially when Bote is locked in at $3 mil per season for awhile and Frazier could exceed that in arbitration in 2021. Yeah, Musgrove could be an improvement over Mills, especially if his strikeout rate wasn't some 2020 short-season fluke. But I'm not sure that's the deal the Cubs should be making if they're pinching pennies.


Frazier would be a defensive upgrade over Bote, is more versatile defensively too, has been a productive starter at 2B, makes a ton of contact...He's a solid fit for this roster, but the Pirates wouldn't have any interest in either Bote or Mills
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:52 pm

Szymborski makes a comment that kinda aligns with how I look at this offseason in that ZiPs article:

One other important thing of note: ZiPS projects thee Cubs about 0.2 runs per game worse defensively than it did mid-decade. ZiPS has historically projected Hendricks with an ERA about 0.3 runs per game better than his FIP and that’s down to about 0.1 for 2021.


Defense has been a big part of my imaginary offseasons (Lindor, Adam Frazier, Nick Lopez, Manuel Margot...these are all top defensive players) and wish lists for the Cubs because it seems like an area the team can meaningfully improve without having to pay the premium people pay for offense. This isn't to say don't focus on the offense but yeah if adding position players it's a good idea to feel good about the defense they can contribute with so much uncertainty about offense due to the volatility coming off a 60 game pandemic schedule (and no DH)
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:52 pm

grassbass wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:I would still like to see a deal with the Pirates.

Bote + Mills for Murgrove + Frasier.

The Pirates save some money and the Cubs get a dependable 2B and SP.


I don't see how Frazier is an upgrade over Bote, especially when Bote is locked in at $3 mil per season for awhile and Frazier could exceed that in arbitration in 2021.

He’s not necessarily an upgrade in overall value in terms of adding more WAR and Bote is certainly on a better contract. But Frazier fits the roster better and helps supplements the shortfalls with the contact, defense and versatility while Bote adds to the weakness of the lack of contact/Ks/etc and is more redundant when trying to reshape things and make the offense more diverse. Imo.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby grassbass » Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:56 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
grassbass wrote:I don't see how Frazier is an upgrade over Bote, especially when Bote is locked in at $3 mil per season for awhile and Frazier could exceed that in arbitration in 2021. Yeah, Musgrove could be an improvement over Mills, especially if his strikeout rate wasn't some 2020 short-season fluke. But I'm not sure that's the deal the Cubs should be making if they're pinching pennies.


Frazier would be a defensive upgrade over Bote, is more versatile defensively too, has been a productive starter at 2B, makes a ton of contact...He's a solid fit for this roster, but the Pirates wouldn't have any interest in either Bote or Mills


More versatile, yes...since he can play outfield well. I don't see how he's that much of an upgrade defensively at second and especially at third. I'll give you the contact hitting, but Bote walks more and outside of batting average and the afore-mentioned contact hitting doesn't appear to be any worse than Frazier in any other offensive category.

I'm not trying to advocate for keeping Bote if the right trade comes along, but I don't see this as the right trade. Frazier is going to be more expensive most likely as soon as 2021 and is under control for fewer seasons.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:04 pm

grassbass wrote:More versatile, yes...since he can play outfield well. I don't see how he's that much of an upgrade defensively at second and especially at third. I'll give you the contact hitting, but Bote walks more and outside of batting average and the afore-mentioned contact hitting doesn't appear to be any worse than Frazier in any other offensive category.

I'm not trying to advocate for keeping Bote if the right trade comes along, but I don't see this as the right trade. Frazier is going to be more expensive most likely as soon as 2021 and is under control for fewer seasons.


Oh for sure he's a massive upgrade defensively at 2B...OAA had him as one of the best defenders in the league regardless of position in 2020, UZR likes him more at the position

I do agree with you that this trade makes no sense but for either team...I just don't see why the Pirates would be interested in Bote or Mills, don't buy the Cubs would trade Bote or Mills to add payroll and get a little older
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:18 pm

I think moving Bote for something does make a lot of sense. His spot on the roster seems like a clear spot to swap out for that contact/versatile guy. Sending Bote out for something (honestly don’t know what his value is but maybe a Montgomery type SP/swing man?) and then signing Hanser Alberto makes a lot of sense to me. He can play IF/OF (metrics are a bit mixed but doesn’t seem incompetent anywhere), does the contact thing and hits lefties well (another offense issue) he does a lot of Adam Frazier type things.

Gonna keep banging the trade out Bote and bring in Alberto/Grossman/Pillar trio drum as good and likely cheap way to help diversify the offense. It seems like a very clear, easy and cheap path to make decently significant offensive profile changes without making any drastic trades.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:37 pm

I'm pro trading Bote in a good trade, but have no interest in Alberto. Not a good defender anywhere and that combo of .300 OBP and .099 IsoSLG really doesn't fit with this org. By comparison Adam Frazier has a .338 career OBP (Bote's is .336) and .140 IsoSLG plus plays good defense at a position of need and hits LH in an IF mix that's all RH outside of Rizzo the 1B
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:47 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I'm pro trading Bote in a good trade, but have no interest in Alberto. Not a good defender anywhere and that combo of .300 OBP and .099 IsoSLG really doesn't fit with this org. By comparison Adam Frazier has a .338 career OBP (Bote's is .336) and .140 IsoSLG plus plays good defense at a position of need and hits LH in an IF mix that's all RH outside of Rizzo the 1B

I’m not saying go crazy for Alberto, I suspect he’ll be cheap and want him on a reasonable 1-3 year deal. He has a .322 OBP over his last ~800 PAs, .114 Iso and a ~.750 OPS, along with a 86% contact rate and 146 and 151 wRC+ vs LHP last two years. While he isn’t plus on defense anywhere he isn’t that bad either, seems like you can live with him at multiple spots (can always pull him for Nico, Pillar, etc. later in games).

I think he’s a pretty solid fit. The big thing to change the offense is the contact, fewer Ks and LHP hitting, imo. Alberto brings that and can move around. Bringing in a guy like that probably means giving up a little something elsewhere (like OBP/ISO) but that’s fine with me because we have a lot of that elsewhere.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:55 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I’m not saying go crazy for Alberto, I suspect he’ll be cheap and want him on a reasonable 1-3 year deal. He has a .322 OBP over his last ~800 PAs, .114 Iso and a ~.750 OPS, along with a 86% contact rate and 146 and 151 wRC+ vs LHP last two years. While he isn’t plus on defense anywhere he isn’t that bad either, seems like you can live with him at multiple spots (can always pull him for Nico, Pillar, etc. later in games).

I think he’s a pretty solid fit. The big thing to change the offense is the contact, fewer Ks and LHP hitting, imo. Alberto brings that and can move around. Bringing in a guy like that probably means giving up a little something elsewhere (like OBP/ISO) but that’s fine with me because we have a lot of that elsewhere.


I guess I could see a fit as like the backup backup infielder, the bat guy to someone's glove guy off the bench, but the skillset is so nichey (essentially a weak defensive 2B that can only hit LHP) it's tough to really see a great fit without creating a new need the same as the old need (a real starting 2B and/or someone not a RHH who compliments his skillset as well as the rest of the non-Rizzo infield off the bench and ideally can take most of the playing time)

I want to improve the whole contact thing too, see the problem with guys like Alberto or Arraez is that contact is basically their whole skillset...Everything else is teams trying to figure out how to milk positive results out of that - playing at 2B lowers the bar they have to clear offensively, playing Alberto only against LHP, moving them around defensively to kinda cloud their defensive evaluations....

Edit: G'dammit...I might as well keep the first edit in
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:01 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I’m not saying go crazy for Alberto, I suspect he’ll be cheap and want him on a reasonable 1-3 year deal. He has a .322 OBP over his last ~800 PAs, .114 Iso and a ~.750 OPS, along with a 86% contact rate and 146 and 151 wRC+ vs LHP last two years. While he isn’t plus on defense anywhere he isn’t that bad either, seems like you can live with him at multiple spots (can always pull him for Nico, Pillar, etc. later in games).

I think he’s a pretty solid fit. The big thing to change the offense is the contact, fewer Ks and LHP hitting, imo. Alberto brings that and can move around. Bringing in a guy like that probably means giving up a little something elsewhere (like OBP/ISO) but that’s fine with me because we have a lot of that elsewhere.


I guess I could see a fit as like the backup backup infielder, the bat guy to someone's glove guy off the bench, but the skillset is so nichey (essentially a weak defensive 2B that can only hit LHP) it's tough to really see a great fit without creating a new need the same as the old need (a real starting 2B and/or someone not a RHH who compliments his skillset as well as the rest of the non-Rizzo infield off the bench and ideally can take most of the playing time)

Right, we’re talking about a backup/platoon start guy/PH. They aren’t going to do everything well and have flaws. But the things he does well are the things the offense struggles with a lot. I just like the fit. This type of add isn’t going to check every box. You could still add Kipnis (or some similar vet) back as a LHH if option too. We literally are one of the worst contact teams in MLB, that needs to change and I don’t think we are going to be able to add star level dudes like DJ who have a whole package. Whoever we add to help with contact is going to have shortfalls elsewhere (be it defense, power, OBP, etc). But that’s okay! The makeup of the majority of the rest of the offense does those things.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:23 pm

The whole point of the Frasier/Musgrove trade was to get Musgrove, but seeing that the Pirates want to dump salary I added Frasier. If the Pirates want to switch names away from Bote/Mills toward prospects, that would be fine. Both Frasier and Musgrove would be great additions to filling 2 of the Cubs biggest holes at a reasonable price. Of course, "reasonable price" is relative to everything we have been discussing.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:34 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Right, we’re talking about a backup/platoon start guy/PH. They aren’t going to do everything well and have flaws. But the things he does well are the things the offense struggles with a lot. I just like the fit. This type of add isn’t going to check every box. You could still add Kipnis (or some similar vet) back as a LHH if option too. We literally are one of the worst contact teams in MLB, that needs to change and I don’t think we are going to be able to add star level dudes like DJ who have a whole package. Whoever we add to help with contact is going to have shortfalls elsewhere (be it defense, power, OBP, etc). But that’s okay! The makeup of the majority of the rest of the offense does those things.


Some of the obstacles you'd run into trying to sign Hanser Alberto for a backup/platoon/PH job:

- Signing starter workload players in their 20s to backup/platoon/PH roles isn't something to take lightly. This is a guy who has put up essentially 3 fWAR and 4 rWAR between 2019-2020, hit FA at 28, and given the offensive bar at 2B (91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 since 2015) could proooooobably find someone willing to give him more playing time than the RHH side of a platoon

- The light side of a platoon isn't fixing this team's contact issues on a day in and day out basis

Until players start coming off the board, the pool of players available or possibly available via trade is so much larger and more diverse than the pool of players available in FA that locking yourself into FAs at this stage is jumping the gun
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:54 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Right, we’re talking about a backup/platoon start guy/PH. They aren’t going to do everything well and have flaws. But the things he does well are the things the offense struggles with a lot. I just like the fit. This type of add isn’t going to check every box. You could still add Kipnis (or some similar vet) back as a LHH if option too. We literally are one of the worst contact teams in MLB, that needs to change and I don’t think we are going to be able to add star level dudes like DJ who have a whole package. Whoever we add to help with contact is going to have shortfalls elsewhere (be it defense, power, OBP, etc). But that’s okay! The makeup of the majority of the rest of the offense does those things.


Some of the obstacles you'd run into trying to sign Hanser Alberto for a backup/platoon/PH job:

- Signing starter workload players in their 20s to backup/platoon/PH roles isn't something to take lightly. This is a guy who has put up essentially 3 fWAR and 4 rWAR between 2019-2020, hit FA at 28, and given the offensive bar at 2B (91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 since 2015) could proooooobably find someone willing to give him more playing time than the RHH side of a platoon

- The light side of a platoon isn't fixing this team's contact issues on a day in and day out basis

Until players start coming off the board, the pool of players available or possibly available via trade is so much larger and more diverse than the pool of players available in FA that locking yourself into FAs at this stage is jumping the gun

I think he’d be used more than just a straight platoon, he’d be given starts vs RHP and get PH opportunities. Does he overall solve the contact issues, no, and there isn’t one realistic move or player out there that does that. But he helps get you there in the aggregate and on the margins, like him starting vs LHP instead of Bote, and if you keep adding another guy or two like Grossman and Pillar beyond Alberto. These are smoothing out the edges moves and players and making sure the bench/platoon/backups aren’t bringing redundant skill sets that the main starters do.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:31 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I think he’d be used more than just a straight platoon, he’d be given starts vs RHP and get PH opportunities. Does he overall solve the contact issues, no, and there isn’t one realistic move or player out there that does that. But he helps get you there in the aggregate and on the margins, like him starting vs LHP instead of Bote, and if you keep adding another guy or two like Grossman and Pillar beyond Alberto. These are smoothing out the edges moves and players and making sure the bench/platoon/backups aren’t bringing redundant skill sets that the main starters do.


Albert has a career .263 OBP and .591 OPS vs RHP, including .269/.609 in 2019 and .278/.635 in 2020

I 100% believe there are individual, realistic, available players (including one whale) who cover much, much more ground than this guy on the contact front, the MIF front, the depth front....Also like to think the Duffy move largely closes the door on a FA like Alberto even on a MiL deal
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby CubinNY » Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:51 pm

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:07 pm

CubinNY wrote:https://twitter.com/Brett_A_Taylor/status/1341468779998572545

Is that really that surprising since the farm system produced starters at like every other spot and we just needed more depth/platoon guys? We had Schwarbs/Happ/Almora/Jorge as internal OF options, Bryant, Javy, Russell, Rizzo, Bote, LaStella, Nico as IF options and Willy/Vic at catcher. Plus Zobrist was around too over that time.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:44 pm

With Ervin onboard, if we're staying cheap this offseason I'd love to add Robbie Grossman and Adam Duvall to the outfield. Both guys have their problems, but would complement the current group (and each other)well. And they'd probably cost combined about as much as JBJ for this year.

It probably requires the DH to keep everyone happy as far as playing time. I also don't love not having a high end defensive CF, but at the same time we'd have five guys who can at least fake CF? So defensively it'd be plus even if it's not in the traditional "strong up the middle" way.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:53 pm

Bertz wrote:With Ervin onboard, if we're staying cheap this offseason I'd love to add Robbie Grossman and Adam Duvall to the outfield. Both guys have their problems, but would complement the current group (and each other)well. And they'd probably cost combined about as much as JBJ for this year.

It probably requires the DH to keep everyone happy as far as playing time. I also don't love not having a high end defensive CF, but at the same time we'd have five guys who can at least fake CF? So defensively it'd be plus even if it's not in the traditional "strong up the middle" way.

Yeah I’d really like to add Grossman. Grossman, Reddick or Rosario if we aren’t completely poor plus Pillar would be ideal play it cheap offseason for the OF but still build out depth/supplement the core’s weakness.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:00 pm

CubinNY wrote:https://twitter.com/Brett_A_Taylor/status/1341468779998572545


Unless they plan to bring in Springer, which would be awesome, another year isn't going to hurt anyone. Next year's FA class is legendary, they're probably extending at least one player (coughBryantcough) up for FA, and there's some outstanding international talent coming over for 2023 very possibly

I see Adam Duvall's name come up fairly often...He's a corner outfielder with a .293 career OBP and 27% K rate, does that really strike anyone as a skillset the Cubs put a ton of value in?

I like Grossman and Pillar, don't hate Reddick either, but also think those guys will be available into February maybe even March so there's plenty of time to aim for younger, cheaper, more athletic, higher upside via trade. I'm pro trading Hoerner for an OFer in a Cubs version of the Urias/Grisham deal, for instance. Also also I don't yet believe Schwarber is off the table and consider him the highest upside FA OFer available not named Springer
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:46 pm

TomtheBombadil, would it be fair to say you’re more interested in the question “how would an ideally rational ownership-management partnership with league average financial health and an a priori commitment to market-appropriate budgets approach this Cubs offseason?” than the question “if you were Jed and faced the problems Jed actually faces, what would you do”?

Maybe the reason you look so Panglossian to the rest of us is that you’d just rather spend your free time answering the first question, whereas the rest of us are mostly focusing on the second?
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"You cannot microwave experience," Colletti said. "The only way to get it is to live it."


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