2020 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Dec 25, 2020 6:15 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Has anything happened yet?


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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Sat Dec 26, 2020 4:18 pm

I think I've come around to trading Darvish instead of KB:

- Darvish is probably the most valuable player on the roster
- Even so, Darvish's contract and NTC make him complicated to move in-season
- I tend to think "age is just a number" for pitchers. But still, keeping a 34 year old pitcher because you're banking on value in his age 35 & 36 seasons is probably fraught
- Darvish is one of 3 players on the roster making real money beyond this year. Moving him now gives you more of a "fresh start" after 2021 (this is not necessarily a positive obviously)
- Bryant has fairly modest value right now, but with his history a hot two months will give him a ton by July

If the only plan for competing this year is "be less bad than the competition" then you might as well cash in on your lone superstar. Trade Darvish and a catcher this winter, trade at least one of Bryant/Kimbrel in July, extend Baez or Rizzo, and try to put an actual good team out there again in 2022.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Post Count Padder » Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:13 pm

The Padres and Cubs have had discussions about a trade involving right-hander Yu Darvish, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Whether these negotiations are serious or perhaps simple due diligence on the Padres’ part is unclear, as Acee writes that “signals from team sources have been mixed on how far along those talks are.”


More fuel to that fire though who knows how serious it is
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Dec 27, 2020 11:51 pm

I continue to believe Cubs media has lost it:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/202 ... s-bullets/

Out of one corner of the mouth: The Future is doomed without trading their best players for worse players because payroll too damn high! Make sure to not ask for too much, don't want to be a bother!

Out of the other corner of the mouth: When trading good players because budgets and Future, take back someone's multi-year deal (Myers is owed 2/45, but those years don't count as The Future or something) to marginally improve the watered down price and compete in 2021!

The only thing consistent about the strategies that seem to gain any traction in media is that they're historically unsuccessful and are built around doublethink (they don't have money, make these trades because money, but also should take back lots of money! Think of the doors that opens up!)
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:43 am

I said this earlier in the off-season, but if you were/are going to move Darvish, and I'm not against it, you ought to really just tear down. The logic of the Cubs being able to compete now and get hot partly resides in having an ace level Darvish and Hendricks potentially giving them to quality starts in a series. Without one, it's hard to imagine them going far, even if all the balls bounced their way.

Tbh, I really don't see who gets in the game for Darvish. If the Cubs shopped Hendricks, they could probably get a market, but hard to see what remaining teams get in the game for Darvish. I mildly wonder if Dombrowski might consider it in Philly as a win now move, but seems a bit unlikely.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:35 pm

toonsterwu wrote:Tbh, I really don't see who gets in the game for Darvish. If the Cubs shopped Hendricks, they could probably get a market, but hard to see what remaining teams get in the game for Darvish. I mildly wonder if Dombrowski might consider it in Philly as a win now move, but seems a bit unlikely.


Twins, Angels, and Blue Jays I think make a ton of sense. Each has a strong farm, a need at the front of the rotation, and indications are they have at least one big money move in them. Twins especially, as they finished second for him in FA.

Phillies and Yankees maybe if the right set of dominos fall this offseason? Maybe the Giants try to compete a year early?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:03 pm

Bertz wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:Tbh, I really don't see who gets in the game for Darvish. If the Cubs shopped Hendricks, they could probably get a market, but hard to see what remaining teams get in the game for Darvish. I mildly wonder if Dombrowski might consider it in Philly as a win now move, but seems a bit unlikely.


Twins, Angels, and Blue Jays I think make a ton of sense. Each has a strong farm, a need at the front of the rotation, and indications are they have at least one big money move in them. Twins especially, as they finished second for him in FA.

Phillies and Yankees maybe if the right set of dominos fall this offseason? Maybe the Giants try to compete a year early?


Of course, we don't know which teams are on his no-trade list, which might complicate things.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:18 am

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:21 am

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:56 pm



Good pickup by the Phillies

Dodgers snuck in and picked up a lefty with some good stuff in Cleavinger gd
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:37 am



If they're going to extend Baez, and I don't think it's the worst idea, they have to commit to him at 2B as soon as 2022 if not 2021. Before we get to all the stats, the one that really matters is that Baez has never played a full MLB season at SS. After that in 2020 MLB SSs put up a 101 wRC+ to 91 wRC+ at 2B, 2B is at like 94 since 2015 too, so the bar is *much* easier for him to clear at 2B than it is as SS both offensively and inevitably defensively

Baez at 2B is a potential GGer with offense maybe as much as 10% better than the league average and top of the league power at the position...I think Marucs Semien miiiiight be laying out that similar gameplan in FA so he'd be a FA to pay attention to given their similar offense (104 wRC+/.322 wOBA/98 OPS+ for Semien, 101/.337/102 for Baez)

Also no later than 2024 if that

Also also really they should probably take the pick? I guess it depends on what FA compensation system is in place, wouldn't be surprised if it's more NFL-esque under the next CBA
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:43 am

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:47 am

Isn't that what they're supposed to do early on in FA? Ask for the moon and call it hollow
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:51 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Isn't that what they're supposed to do early on in FA? Ask for the moon and call it hollow

Yes, but consider this. He’s a complete horsefeathering horsefeathers douche who only has 1 year over 4 WAR and is going to be 30 in a month. He can go horsefeathers himself.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:55 am





Would like to see more of this from athletes, granted more about the bad, clickbait reporting than just attacking these guys to attack
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby The Logan » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:26 pm

I know this will be a bad take, but Bauer has grown on me. I've watched several of his videos on his Youtube channel, particularly the roundtable discussions with other athletes and while he may be a horse's ass, he's one who is incredibly passionate and educated about the sport of baseball and the analytical side of things to an alarming extent. He may be obnoxious, but he's also really smart about the sport.

That said, he complained about pitchers, mamely Gerrit Cole, using foreign substances in 2019 to increase spin rate and MLB did nothing about and he kinda straight up said he was gonna do the same and he'd be the best pitcher in baseball. Low and behold. Because of this, I want no part in Bauer as it's pretty obvious he's using a foreign substance to elevate his game. If that substance becomes unavailable he's not Cy Young caliber anymore and that's obviously not worth the gamble.

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:21 pm

So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

C - Amaya
1B - Rizzo
2B - Hoerner
SS - Baez
3B - Bote
LF - Ervin
CF - Happ
RF - Heyward

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:39 pm





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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:47 pm

Bertz wrote:So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

C - Amaya
1B - Rizzo
2B - Hoerner
SS - Baez
3B - Bote
LF - Ervin
CF - Happ
RF - Heyward

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.


Davies?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:15 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Bertz wrote:So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

C - Amaya
1B - Rizzo
2B - Hoerner
SS - Baez
3B - Bote
LF - Ervin
CF - Happ
RF - Heyward

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.


Davies?


FA after this year, right? FG has him at 5+ years of service heading into this season.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tim » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:17 pm

Bertz wrote:So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

C - Amaya
1B - Rizzo
2B - Hoerner
SS - Baez
3B - Bote
LF - Ervin
CF - Happ
RF - Heyward

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

Is Brailyn's arm going to explode or will he just disappoint?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:24 pm

Tim wrote:
Bertz wrote:So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

C - Amaya
1B - Rizzo
2B - Hoerner
SS - Baez
3B - Bote
LF - Ervin
CF - Happ
RF - Heyward

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

Is Brailyn's arm going to explode or will he just disappoint?


I assume if he stays a starter he's a guy we can hope is in the rotation but we can't count on it? At least to start the year? Same with Davis in the outfield. I'd love for them to whoop ass in MiLB this season and make that prediction needlessly conservative though.

I do also think the bullpen will be a strength regardless though. Too many fun arms are floating around at Tennessee or higher for them to not have 5-6 work out at any given time.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Post Count Padder » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:11 pm

Tim wrote:
Bertz wrote:So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

C - Amaya
1B - Rizzo
2B - Hoerner
SS - Baez
3B - Bote
LF - Ervin
CF - Happ
RF - Heyward

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

Is Brailyn's arm going to explode or will he just disappoint?

I feel like Brailyn won't be ready to be in the rotation for the start of 2022? I also have a hard time seeing Rea in the picture there unless he has a solid 2021 and we have no other guys. Would put Keegan or Riley Thompson ahead of him if we're going just off who is in the organization right now. But yes, the point is that's pretty bleak.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:29 am

Interesting:

https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/ho ... vish-deal/

Hoyer said Wednesday. “As far as our direction, I think we’re going to have a really competitive team next year.

“We have a lot of really good players, but do we need to make some moves with the future in mind after six years with every single move being directed on the present? Yes. I think that’s the prudent thing to do. It’s something we’ve talked about for several years. Something we haven’t done. Something that we kept pushing. We kept trading more prospects and we kept spending more money on this team and we’re at that time right now.

“… Do I believe that we’re going to have a competitive team this year? Absolutely. But do I think this is a year that you push the envelope to spend and to take on older players and to continue to push because you’re trying to potentially satisfy something that you don’t necessarily believe is the right thing to do? I don’t think that’s the right thing right now.

“I don’t think being in the big free agent market this year is the right thing for the Cubs to do. Does that mean I don’t think we can compete for a championship? No. I think we absolutely can, but I don’t think spending money on a free agent this offseason is the right way to attack that problem."


Steaming hot take:

- Trades were key to the Rays and Doyers going to the WS
- The Darvish deal set the market for teams trading stars for cap space
- The Cubs can swim in that kind of trade market
- We've already seen teams ID Cubs prospects early and do alright: Rangers with Ovalles (since traded to the Rays!), Paderes obviously, Eloy after the MWL, Torres....Pinango, Verdugo, Hearn, both Morels, Strumpf (Paredes esque in that there's alot of confidence he'll be a MLer after very few pro PAs at low levels), Velazquez, Weber, Preciado, Pertuz, Maldonado, Franklin, Jensen, Herz, Reivaj Garcia, Little, Nwogu, Caissie, Santana, Sanders, R. Thompson, so on have a little more trade Value
- Now that's been scaled up in value from Jesse Chavez(?), Justin Wilson, and Jose Quintana to Yu Darvish!
- coughFrancisco Lindor is 27 in 2021cough
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:37 pm

Bertz wrote:So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

C - Amaya
1B - Rizzo
2B - Hoerner
SS - Baez
3B - Bote
LF - Ervin
CF - Happ
RF - Heyward

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

Gonna be tough for Ervin to start in LF after he’s DFA this summer.
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