2020 Offseason Thread

[Cubswin11]

If they don’t do anymore trading off and can add even 2-3 pitchers and 2-3 bats in the $4-10 mil range each we probably will have the best team in the division and really what they should be doing vs a full on rebuild and strip down.

While that flexibility doesn’t mean the Cubs will be swimming in the deep end of the pool, there might be an opportunity to get creative in a free-agent market that might swing back toward them if the market remains frozen.

“I think we’re gonna be in the free-agent market, and we’re gonna look to supplement the group,” Hoyer said. “We’re talking to agents and looking to do that right now. We know that there are holes on our roster that we need to address, and we’ll look to address them.

“I’m not going to sit here and say that we’re not going to make any more trades. If trades make sense to make, then we will do them. Those deals are gonna be done with an eye on the future. If we do them, they wouldn’t be about cost-cutting. I think we know we have to add players through free agency, and we’ll be looking at that.”

[TomtheBombadil]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/ ... allen.html

I like Allen as that glove first 5th OFer capable of backing up all 3 spots defensively. Switch hitter with a .378 OBP and 14% K rate in the minors, 28 next year. Seems like he may end up getting released being out of options, might intrigue the KBO or NPB

[TomtheBombadil]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/what ... ed-market/

1. No elite prospects

It used to be that a star player would net high-grade prospects, even if said star had only one year remaining on their contract. That's no longer the case. Teams have fetishized service time, surplus value, and financial flexibility to the extent that you oftentimes have a better chance of extracting a dragon's tooth than acquiring an elite prospect. (For the sake of defining terms, "elite" in this article means a top-10 overall prospect.)

The Lindor trade probably won't prove to be the exception -- not when everyone knows Cleveland won't pony up to keep him around, reducing the team's leverage.

Yep, fetishized is a great word choice too

2. Portfolio return

You can bet the farm on Cleveland receiving multiple players in exchange for Lindor. That isn't what we mean by "portfolio return"; rather, we mean an intentional targeting of players with various risk factors and arrival dates, including, likely, a player or two who has already broken into the Show.

Yep

3. Big-league help

As noted above, it's probably fair to expect Cleveland to net at least one player in a Lindor trade who has already graced a big-league field. Of course, that doesn't mean the player is going to be a star-caliber contributor -- it's more likely to be a complementary player with three-plus years of team control remaining

Yep

[Bertz]

I really like Profar's fit as a bat, but I worry about his 2B defense. He was borderline unplayable in 2019, and I know at one point there was a little bit of talk about the Yips. The numbers say he was still bad last year, but in very limited time (so it could be a rust/reps thing). So if he's actually a 2B/LF, he's kind of a perfect fit on the roster. If he's just a LF, much less so.

[Cubswin11]

https://twitter.com/Brett_A_Taylor/status/1346195163589312512?s=19

I really like Profar's fit as a bat, but I worry about his 2B defense. He was borderline unplayable in 2019, and I know at one point there was a little bit of talk about the Yips. The numbers say he was still bad last year, but in very limited time (so it could be a rust/reps thing). So if he's actually a 2B/LF, he's kind of a perfect fit on the roster. If he's just a LF, much less so.

Yeah I really like his bat fit and if 2B can be figured out to be league average there along with some LF/OF I like the versatility he brings to have a lot of different lineup configurations (kinda like Zobrist). He also lets you start Nico in AAA/use more as a platoon or backup guy in MLB but also doesn’t completely get in the way if Nico is showing promise.

At the same time if we are trying to win and money is tight... ~$10 mil for Profar may go a longer way for 2 guys who can cover the OF/2B/utility role for $3-6 mil each since there seems to be a lot of guys in that range out there.

[TomtheBombadil]

Such a hard pass on Profar. Buying high on mediocre FAs with big injury histories is just a bad way to go about things, especially if the dream here is a Zobrist(!!!!!!!)-esque impact from a guy who has never ever come close to that

If he could play 2B really well then yay, especially as a switch hitter, but he can't and it's not reasonable to expect anything approaching that...I don't hate him for the OF but since he's got two surgeried knees, has very little experience there, and isn't a masher don't really love or even truly like the fit

[Cubswin11]

Such a hard pass on Profar. Buying high on mediocre FAs with big injury histories is just a bad way to go about things, especially if the dream here is a Zobrist(!!!!!!!)-esque impact from a guy who has never ever come close to that

If he could play 2B really well then yay, especially as a switch hitter, but he can't and it's not reasonable to expect anything approaching that...I don't hate him for the OF but since he's got two surgeried knees, has very little experience there, and isn't a masher don't really love or even truly like the fit

Not saying he has Zobrist type value, just he fits the role of what Zobrist did where he really isn’t a starter anywhere but is starting almost every day somewhere and does the switch hitting/contact thing.

[TomtheBombadil]

Not saying he has Zobrist type value, just he fits the role of what Zobrist did where he really isn’t a starter anywhere but is starting almost every day somewhere and does the switch hitting/contact thing.

That seems like doublespeak? Zobrist hit leadoff for perennial playoff and WS contenders, won back to back WS MVPs, played a decent 2B into his mid-late 30s...I don't think Jurickson Profar has any real shot to playing a similar role for anyone, particularly since he was moved out of the infield because of defense in his 20s

[TomtheBombadil]

Colin Rea got released. I'm for it, cleans up the depth chart some as he wasn't really competitive SP depth and there's plenty of unproven RHP in the bullpen

[Bertz]

Cleveland makes A LOT of sense for a Contreras deal. This is a laughably deep farm system. Though who knows how much of Lindor's salary they're willing to reinvest after they trade him

[TomtheBombadil]

Colin Rea got released. I'm for it, cleans up the depth chart some as he wasn't really competitive SP depth and there's plenty of unproven RHP in the bullpen

Apparently for an opp in Japan so good for him

[TomtheBombadil]

Still like this guy for Cubs:

Two of South Korea’s top players are still waiting to see if they will join Major League Baseball next season, as Jeeho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency provides updates on both left-hander Hyeon-Jong Yang and outfielder Sung-Bum Na (Twitter link).

Beginning with Yang, the southpaw is looking for a guaranteed MLB deal rather than a split contract, according to Yang’s agent In-gook Choi. Yang is willing to “be flexible” about being sent to the minors without his consent, Choi said, “but we won’t take a split deal.”

There hasn’t been much publicly-known information about Yang’s free agency since news broke back in October about his plan to explore a jump to North America. Yoo goes so far as to describe the longtime Kia Tigers hurler as “almost a forgotten free agent,” perhaps owing to Yang’s subpar 2020 season. The lefty posted a 4.70 ERA, 19.97 K% and 8.6 BB% over 172 1/3 innings for the Tigers last season, with that ERA standing out as Yang’s highest in the last eight seasons.

It isn’t the platform year that Yang wanted as he prepared to market himself to Major League teams, and it remains to be seen what type of offers he might land as he heads into his age-33 season. Choi said that “teams that are still trying to fill out their rotation have shown interest” and predicts that Yang will get more attention once Tomoyuki Sugano’s posting period is up on Thursday. However, a concrete offer for Yang will have to come soon — Choi and Yang have set a mid-January date for a decision either way, so Yang will have adequate time to get ready for the 2021 season whether he pitches in North America or for another KBO League team.

Yang is a full free agent, and thus doesn’t have to face any international signing restrictions or the KBO/MLB posting system.

Since split deals have been the Cubs' MO the past two FAs, wouldn't be surprised if they've contacted him with that kind of offer and been rebuffed...Big plus that he's willing to be flexible about being sent to the minors

[Cubswin11]

Damn it Cubs, he was a nice fit and that’s cheap

[Bertz]

Damn it Cubs, he was a nice fit and that’s cheap

That is extremely annoying

I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high.

[Cubswin11]

Damn it Cubs, he was a nice fit and that’s cheap

That is extremely annoying

I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high.

Same. And I fear aiming higher is JBJ and I am not a big fan of his or his fit on this team. I’d rather have Grossman over him to begin with all factors included.

[Bertz]

Damn it Cubs, he was a nice fit and that’s cheap

That is extremely annoying

I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high.

Same. And I fear aiming higher is JBJ and I am not a big fan of his or his fit on this team. I’d rather have Grossman over him to begin with all factors included.

JBJ's a good news/bad news thing. Like if the rumor is true we can play in the 8 figure salary end of the pool. That's exciting! But I think like you if that's the case I have other guys I'd rather target.

[Cubswin11]

That is extremely annoying

I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high.

Same. And I fear aiming higher is JBJ and I am not a big fan of his or his fit on this team. I’d rather have Grossman over him to begin with all factors included.

JBJ's a good news/bad news thing. Like if the rumor is true we can play in the 8 figure salary end of the pool. That's exciting! But I think like you if that's the case I have other guys I'd rather target.

Yup, if we’re able to go there I’d rather spread that money out to multiple guys or get in on like Odorizzi, Didi, Brantley, Semien or Wong.

[TomtheBombadil]

I'm kinda glad Grossman is off the market tbh. Not a good defender, .721 OPS against RHP in his career, career SLGs are .376 and .390 against RH and LHP respectively....woulda coulda shoulda been a quality under the radar signing years ago, fully on radar this FA and yeah, pass...There's still bigger fish out there and it's still early

[TomtheBombadil]

Probably not the most legit source but there's been no updates on this guy despite there very likely being alot of interest:



I imagine he'd be the next reliever to sign a contract after Treinen resigned with the Dodgers, simliar in that he's a former closer not married to the role for 2021 in the MLs. This is a FA I would really like the Cubs to sign. Similar pitch mix to Ryne Stanek with a FB up to 97, hard splitter that can get into the low 90s, and slider, former top SP turned top reliever turned top closer in the NPB, finished the year strong after being traded from basically the NPB equivalent of the Yankees

The splitter:

[Named After Maddux]

Probably not the most legit source but there's been no updates on this guy despite there very likely being alot of interest:



I imagine he'd be the next reliever to sign a contract after Treinen resigned with the Dodgers, simliar in that he's a former closer not married to the role for 2021 in the MLs. This is a FA I would really like the Cubs to sign. Similar pitch mix to Ryne Stanek with a FB up to 97, hard splitter that can get into the low 90s, and slider, former top SP turned top reliever turned top closer in the NPB, finished the year strong after being traded from basically the NPB equivalent of the Yankees

The splitter:

That’s a very intriguing profile. A slider followed by a splitter was the two pitch sequence with the highest SwSt% (swinging strike %) in baseball last year.
https://twitter.com/choice_fielder/status/1344077942897307650?s=21

[TomtheBombadil]

Notably after trading for him the Marines made the playoffs for the first time in 13 years and he gave up 10 hits in 21 IP with 29 Ks and 1.71 ERA

[Backtobanks]

I'm kinda glad Grossman is off the market tbh. Not a good defender, .721 OPS against RHP in his career, career SLGs are .376 and .390 against RH and LHP respectively....woulda coulda shoulda been a quality under the radar signing years ago, fully on radar this FA and yeah, pass...There's still bigger fish out there and it's still early

Bigger fish cost more money.

[Bertz]

So I assume we have to hear something about Sugano by lunch time at the latest? Otherwise he's likely going back to Japan?

[Bertz]

Angels manager Joe Maddon was a strong advocate for Willson Contreras during their time together with the Cubs, so perhaps it’s no surprise the Angels are showing interest in trading for the catcher, according to major-league sources.

No deal appears close, but Contreras, 28, would be an excellent fit for the Angels, whose top returning catcher, Max Stassi, might miss the start of the season while recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip.

Stassi, 29, is not necessarily the answer even when healthy – he had a .611 career OPS before popping an .866 in 105 plate appearances last season, including a 1.024 against left-handed pitching. The fiery Contreras, who is under control for two more seasons, would bring energy to the Angels, whose position players are mostly older veterans.

The Cubs could try to pry loose one of the Angels’ better position prospects – perhaps outfielder Jordyn Adams, 21; middle infielder Jeremiah Jackson, 20; or shortstop Kyren Paris, 19. As reported by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, they already have shown interest in free-agent catcher Jason Castro after including Victor Caratini in the Darvish deal. If they traded Contreras, they likely would add another catcher and wait one more season for Miguel Amaya.

Contreras is known not just to Maddon, but also to three coaches who followed the manager from the Cubs to the Angels – third base coach Brian Butterfield, assistant hitting coach John Mallee and quality assurance coach Tim Buss. New Angels GM Perry Minasian, meanwhile, is familiar with Contreras’ younger brother, catcher William Contreras, from their time together with the Braves.

Bauer and Contreras would probably butt the Angels right up against the luxury tax, which sounds like is their line.

[Bertz]

So out of curiosity, I plugged the three names Rosenthal specifically mentioned into this tool:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

If you're not familiar, It's pretty cool. It uses established research to convert prospect rankings into dollar values, and for MLBer does the old Dave Cameron dollars/WAR move. It's certainly got problems, any sort of tool that completely strips context out of the equation will, but I like it a lot as a quick and dirty way to sense check these sorts of hypothetical deals.

Anyways, when you plug the three names Rosenthal mentioned into the tool, you get a value that matches what Contreras is worth. The tool gives Willson $28.3M in surplus value, while the prospects are at $30.4M. Considering how many assumptions go into something like this, that difference is negligible. Considering this is Rosenthal and how connected he is, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the current proposal on the table from one of the sides.