2020 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:23 pm

Bertz wrote:Anyways, when you plug the three names Rosenthal mentioned into the tool, you get a value that matches what Contreras is worth. The tool gives Willson $28.3M in surplus value, while the prospects are at $30.4M. Considering how many assumptions go into something like this, that difference is negligible. Considering this is Rosenthal and how connected he is, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the current proposal on the table from one of the sides.


Rosenthal says "one of" the three, which doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Also, while I love a good $/WAR or surplus value convo, I find it hard to make many parallels to the current covid environment, especially since so few moves have happened to give a point of comparison.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Post Count Padder » Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:18 pm

I'm fine with Robbie Grossman going elsewhere. Nice player but feels like we could do better.

As for Contreras, give me Jordyn Adams, Packy Naughton and Griffin Canning please. (it ain't happening but I can hope)
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:37 pm

Rays, Jays, and Angels are the three teams I would hope they deal Contreras to if anyone. I think it's important to come out of a Contreras/Angels deal with Taylor Ward (RHH OF, .398 OBP in the minors, strong plate discipline and approach, played C and 3B coming up) and of course Adams, who yeah I've already rambled on as a prospect I think has a through the roof ceiling (leadoff hittnig CF with GG potentail) with the tools and latent skills to get there

Pitching's a little tougher with them, but I think Patrick Sandoval's changeup is right up the Cubs' alley and he's struggled enough to maybe fall out of some favor...Just 19 HRs allowed in 330 MiL IP including through the Cal, signature season in the minors (2018 at 21) is a really clean one for a pitching prospect (122 IP / 5 HRs / 145 Ks / 29 BBs / 88 Hs) through three levels:



Up to 96-97 too...Not like a huge ceiling guy but I'd have some confidence Hottovy can get like a Davies-lite kind of SP out of him from the left side and more velocity, Davies' 159 IP in 2019 being more the ceiling for workload
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:20 pm



Shucks, not that he's making or breaking any roster but I really liked the fit here and wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees got a little more offense out of him. The whole glove first CF with speed and switch hitting potential, some track record of hitting in the pros, is alot to offer from a guy who doesn't have much/any claim to better than a 5th OFer job
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:30 pm

I'd expect something like Kyren Paris, Alex Ramirez and Jack Kochanowicz. I wish it was more, but I think that's about as good as it's going to get.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:16 am

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/ ... nment.html

Acquired from the Yankees just shy of a year ago, Tarpley missed a month of the 2020 season due to an oblique strain and otherwise struggled over 11 innings with Miami. The southpaw posted a 9.00 ERA while allowing two homers and eight walks during his small sample size of work. While Tarpley has a 5.8 BB/9 and 1.6 HR/9 over his 44 2/3 career MLB innings with the Marlins and Yankees, he has been almost an entirely different hurler over his 450 2/3 minor league innings — he owns a modest 3.0 BB/9 and only an 0.4 HR/9, while posting often extreme groundball numbers.

With this intriguing resume, it isn’t out of the question that Tarpley is claimed by another team during his DFA period in the hope that another change of scenery could unlock some late-career (Tarpley turns 28 in February) potential. A third-round pick for the Orioles in the 2013 draft, Tarpley also spent some time in the Pirates’ farm system during his career.


With Allen off the waiver market, Tarpley might be interesting enough. He's probably most similar to Kyle Ryan in the org, both low arm slot sinkerballing lefties who converted from SP to reliever around the same age. He's actually around the same age Ryan was when the Cubs picked him up too, and both were coming off arguably their worst seasons as pros. The 2019 version of Tarpley picked up 34 Ks in 24.2 IP for the Yankees coming from a much lower arm slot than he did in 2020, Ryan-low even, maybe impacted by an oblique injury that he probably tried to rush back from...Throws harder than Ryan, hitting 95-96 with his sinker while on the Yankees, maybe 5th org is the charm



Slider drew 22% whiffs in 2019 too
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:38 am

MLBTR wrote:Free agent righty Jake Odorizzi appears to be in position to land a three-year deal, an executive tells Rosenthal.


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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:27 pm

Maybe Jed and crew have dropped enough payroll to please the ancients because MLB.com dropped their first positive offseason outlook on the Cubs in literally years yesterday:

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-still-may ... es-in-2021
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:48 pm



Make it, Robert Stock!
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:55 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Maybe Jed and crew have dropped enough payroll to please the ancients because MLB.com dropped their first positive offseason outlook on the Cubs in literally years yesterday:

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-still-may ... es-in-2021

It's Will Leitch, not a baseball analyst of any type.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:02 pm



McHugh would be the perfect incentive laden MiLB deal type
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:53 pm

Stanek to the Astros, Damn it Cubs
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:06 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Stanek to the Astros, Damn it Cubs

In all seriousness, why are you allowing guys not coming to the Cubs upset you?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:15 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Stanek to the Astros, Damn it Cubs

In all seriousness, why are you allowing guys not coming to the Cubs upset you?

Or expecting anyone of significance to sign?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:16 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Stanek to the Astros, Damn it Cubs

In all seriousness, why are you allowing guys not coming to the Cubs upset you?

It doesn’t upset me, just thought he was a nice target. Especially for $1.1 million. I expect us to at least be in on guys at that level.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:17 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Stanek to the Astros, Damn it Cubs

In all seriousness, why are you allowing guys not coming to the Cubs upset you?

It doesn’t upset me, just thought he was a nice target. Especially for $1.1 million


they're not hiring a GM because they can't afford one, they aren't signing actual baseball players.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:30 pm

From MLBTR:

Mets, Cubs Had “Recent Trade Talks” About Kris Bryant

They hint that either Davis or Smith might be the return.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:39 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:In all seriousness, why are you allowing guys not coming to the Cubs upset you?

It doesn’t upset me, just thought he was a nice target. Especially for $1.1 million


they're not hiring a GM because they can't afford one, they aren't signing actual baseball players.

I’m 50/50 at best the GM thing is a money saving/can’t afford thing vs actually doing a thorough process of picking the next GM. But regardless.

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:52 am

Backtobanks wrote:From MLBTR:

Mets, Cubs Had “Recent Trade Talks” About Kris Bryant

They hint that either Davis or Smith might be the return.


I don't believe for a minute that dominic smith is available. At least not for 1 season of Bryant. He has put up a .957 OPS over the last 2 seasons, good for a 149 wRC+ and 390 wOBA.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:00 am

Tryptamine wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:From MLBTR:

Mets, Cubs Had “Recent Trade Talks” About Kris Bryant

They hint that either Davis or Smith might be the return.


I don't believe for a minute that dominic smith is available. At least not for 1 season of Bryant. He has put up a .957 OPS over the last 2 seasons, good for a 149 wRC+ and 390 wOBA.

I believe he’d be available for KB. He can’t play defense and there’s no NL DH this year and they have Alonso. Idk why we’d be interested in him since he’s a fringe 1B at best and there’s no certainty a DH is coming to the NL for good anytime soon.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:03 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:From MLBTR:

Mets, Cubs Had “Recent Trade Talks” About Kris Bryant

They hint that either Davis or Smith might be the return.


I don't believe for a minute that dominic smith is available. At least not for 1 season of Bryant. He has put up a .957 OPS over the last 2 seasons, good for a 149 wRC+ and 390 wOBA.

I believe he’d be available for KB. He can’t play defense and there’s no NL DH this year and they have Alonso. Idk why we’d be interested in him since he’s a fringe 1B at best and there’s no certainty a DH is coming to the NL for good anytime soon.


Because we have an aging 1B who is a FA next season and is going to want near 20M a year.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:07 am

Tryptamine wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
I don't believe for a minute that dominic smith is available. At least not for 1 season of Bryant. He has put up a .957 OPS over the last 2 seasons, good for a 149 wRC+ and 390 wOBA.

I believe he’d be available for KB. He can’t play defense and there’s no NL DH this year and they have Alonso. Idk why we’d be interested in him since he’s a fringe 1B at best and there’s no certainty a DH is coming to the NL for good anytime soon.


Because we have an aging 1B who is a FA next season and is going to want near 20M a year.

Rizzo isn’t getting $20 mil AAV and Smith is borderline unplayable defensively if he isn’t OPS’ing close to 1.000. And I think we extend Rizzo anyways so Smith doesn’t really fit. I’d rather target a different return for KB with the Mets or someone else.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:43 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I believe he’d be available for KB. He can’t play defense and there’s no NL DH this year and they have Alonso. Idk why we’d be interested in him since he’s a fringe 1B at best and there’s no certainty a DH is coming to the NL for good anytime soon.


Because we have an aging 1B who is a FA next season and is going to want near 20M a year.

Rizzo isn’t getting $20 mil AAV and Smith is borderline unplayable defensively if he isn’t OPS’ing close to 1.000. And I think we extend Rizzo anyways so Smith doesn’t really fit. I’d rather target a different return for KB with the Mets or someone else.


I'm not sure I believe this but let me play devil's advocate. You essentially have 3 risks here:

- The risk that Smith isn't even functional at 1B/LF plus the risk that the DH doesn't come to the NL. UZR seems to not despise Smith at 1B, for as much as we can trust 1B UZR.

- The risk that a different return for Bryant is too far away or too low ceiling thanks to his minimal team control, inconsistent production, and most importantly, 20 million contract in a year where that is a poison pill.

- The risk that Bryant does not return to form and/or does not re-sign with the Cubs.


I can see a set of circumstances where Hoyer and co believe that 2020 Smith is at least close to the real article and that he could be a longer term Rizzo replacement, and that the current version of Bryant + pandemic finances mean that's by far the most production/upside he's going to get in trade, and that they're pessimistic about Bryant's long term future(productivity, contract, or both).

This also assumes that Rizzo is not getting extended, which is maybe me wishfully projecting my hopes onto the situation(unless he's taking very short years and/or a fairly extensive pay cut).
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Post Count Padder » Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:56 pm

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/202 ... ague-deal/

We signed Nick Martini to a minors deal. Walks a bunch, good baserunner, can play all three outfield spots. It's fine depth.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tim » Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:05 pm

Post Count Padder wrote:https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/01/08/chicago-cubs-sign-outfielder-nick-martini-to-a-minor-league-deal/

We signed Nick Martini to a minors deal. Walks a bunch, good baserunner, can play all three outfield spots. It's fine depth.

Plus he sounds like a Bond character from the 60's or 70's.
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