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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:26 pm
by Backtobanks
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
You think too highly of other teams and their owners! Baez would move.

Teams I'd eliminate among those 11 before the Cubs:

Reds - Their big rental was Bauer, light on prospects
Blue Jays - In play for basically all the FAs, meh on their presence in trades
Twins - Just not happening
Phillies - Don't have the prospects, likely only an opportunistic FA spender this offseason (Semien?)
Dodgers - Placed in by media because Dodgers, but Seager/Lux already has the kind of upside up the middle to keep them spectators and their top prospects after Lux are meh


Do you really think Theo is going to trade 3 or 4 of Amaya, Hoerner, Marquez, Caratini, and Davis for 1 year of Lindor? Also, What would PTR think of adding $20 million to the payroll for 2021 and hundreds of millions in extensions after that?


Is going? Eh, Indians have to agree. Is willing? Sure

and

"dad's gonna be pissed if this doesn't work"


Again, it's hard to predict anything until we see what other trades Theo makes (Bryant, Schwarber, etc.) and what they get in return because Lindor can't fill all of the holes that need to be filled. As for "dad's gonna be pissed if this doesn't work", I don't think "dad" would approve the deal unless Theo saved that much after filling out the rest of the roster.

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:04 pm
by Cubswin11
Backtobanks wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
They were mentioned as one of 11 teams that might have interest in Lindor. Of course, most of the other teams actually have either: (1) a bigger need at SS, (2) the prospects needed to complete a trade, (3) an owner willing to spend the money to keep Lindor.


You think too highly of other teams and their owners! Baez would move.

Teams I'd eliminate among those 11 before the Cubs:

Reds - Their big rental was Bauer, light on prospects
Blue Jays - In play for basically all the FAs, meh on their presence in trades
Twins - Just not happening
Phillies - Don't have the prospects, likely only an opportunistic FA spender this offseason (Semien?)
Dodgers - Placed in by media because Dodgers, but Seager/Lux already has the kind of upside up the middle to keep them spectators and their top prospects after Lux are meh


Do you really think Theo is going to trade 3 or 4 of Amaya, Hoerner, Marquez, Caratini, and Davis for 1 year of Lindor? Also, What would PTR think of adding $20 million to the payroll for 2021 and hundreds of millions in extensions after that?

There’s no way Lindor costs that much for 1 year but also agree that we aren’t trading away and depleting prospect capital this year. I don’t think we are going to have any sort of an offseason where we trade meaningful prospects.

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:20 am
by TomtheBombadil
There's also the real possibility Cleveland just skips on Santana's $17 million dollar option and keeps Lindor. I think the Cubs should do alot of the same stuff whether he is or isn't available. The A's might be interesting sleepers with Nick Allen and Sheldon Neuse likely available for someone like Lindor

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:03 am
by TomtheBombadil
The Fish could have the makings of a strong unit, but plenty of variables remain. Full health can’t be presumed, so there’ll be a need for more arms even if Sanchez ultimately takes a rotation slot. Mattingly also tabbed Nick Neidert and Jose Urena as possibilities, though the former has yet to make a MLB start and the latter seems to be a potential non-tender candidate.


Would make alot of sense if NT'd, started relieving last year and wasn't a terrible SP. Easily could fit in the pen and probably could spot start. He got hit by a comebacker and broke his arm, wasn't on the Marlins' postseason roster. OTOH he was throwing a little harder in 2020, drew more swinging strikes, gets some groundballs, has 3 pitches (sinker, slider, 4 seam)...Maybe a big upgrade over Winkler as the resident sinkerballer, a pitch he had a 11.5% whiff rate on in 2020 with a 12% GB rate. The slider wasn't a big whiff pitch (14%) but picked up GBs (7%) and popups (2%)

Also also I know they're shopping for SPs yada yada, but Alec Mills should be someone they don't mind including in a deal. I think the Angels or Blue Jays would have some interest, Blue Jays want to throw more strikes. While I think velocity is a little overrated throughout the league, the Cubs could use more of it

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:31 pm
by Backtobanks
From MLBTR: The Seattle Mariners outrighted three relievers to Triple-A, the team announced. Matt Magill, Carl Edwards Jr., and Nestor Cortes Jr. each elected free agency. The Mariners have 7 open spots on their 40-man roster.

Edwards lost it in 2019, but pitched well in limited appearances in 2020. Might be worth looking at.

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:19 am
by TomtheBombadil
It’s possible that between these numbers and any uncertainty over his knee situation, the Padres could look to non-tender Strahm, who is projected to earn between $1.6MM-$1.9MM in his second trip through the arbitration process.


https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/ ... ffice.html

Strahm was throwing 2 MPH harder this season, his 4 seam has an impressive 11.5% whiff rate in the MLs, curveball went from an 11-12% whiff rate to 20% this year, has experience as both a starter and reliever, as a 133:26 K:BB between 2019-2020 (16 GS, 65 games, ~134 IP), and all from a lefty still in his 20s...Wouldn't be a FA until 2023 if you're into that and it works out

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:31 pm
by jersey cubs fan
Cubs dredge the Sledge


Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:55 pm
by Bertz
So Chris Archer is likely going to be a FA. He hasn't been mentioned much, because the Pirates hold an option on him that was likely still a no brainer pre-pandemic. But I would LOVE to get him in the lab with Hottovy. His velo was down a bit in 2019, but still well above average. And even if the ship has sailed on him as a good starter, with good velocity and a killer slider he'd likely make a fantastic reliever.

In lieu of one higher end guy, I'd probably prefer bringing in two veteran guys like this, like say Archer and Mike Minor.

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:35 pm
by Backtobanks
Bertz wrote:So Chris Archer is likely going to be a FA. He hasn't been mentioned much, because the Pirates hold an option on him that was likely still a no brainer pre-pandemic. But I would LOVE to get him in the lab with Hottovy. His velo was down a bit in 2019, but still well above average. And even if the ship has sailed on him as a good starter, with good velocity and a killer slider he'd likely make a fantastic reliever.

In lieu of one higher end guy, I'd probably prefer bringing in two veteran guys like this, like say Archer and Mike Minor.


I'd rather do Taijuan Walker and re-sign Quintana. Also, picking up Trevor Cahill on the cheap would add some insurance for the rotation and long relief.

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:43 pm
by Tim
I don't think I'm even going to try to put an offseason plan together until I see who gets non-tendered.

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:23 pm
by Cubswin11
This is gonna be bad, idk if there’s a season until they figure out a new CBA. The players won’t just keep going along with this.


Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:35 pm
by Tim
Cubswin11 wrote:This is gonna be bad, idk if there’s a season until they figure out a new CBA. The players won’t just keep going along with this.


He'd be a solid pickup for second base next year

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:48 pm
by TomtheBombadil
^^ Yeah, Wong instantly becomes one of the better FA fits for this roster. I've probably made multiple ramblings about adding a LHH 2B, Wong is that without a strong hold on a starting job, the defense is a nice perk

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:00 am
by Backtobanks
TomtheBombadil wrote:^^ Yeah, Wong instantly becomes one of the better FA fits for this roster


He will be too expensive for us

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:16 am
by TomtheBombadil
Backtobanks wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:^^ Yeah, Wong instantly becomes one of the better FA fits for this roster


He will be too expensive for us


Probably, I'm as into making a trade with the Rockies for Ryan McMahon or the Royals for Nick Lopez. Wong's definitely on the more expensive end of available or probably available LHH 2B/IF I'd rather have on the bench than starting full time, mostly because of his established glove

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:43 am
by TomtheBombadil
I thought I'd hold out until NTs too but this magiccame to me in a vision, couldn't not share:

Pre-NT deadline trade

Phillies get: Albert Almora CF, Ryan Tepera RHRP
Cubs get: Damon Jones LHP

NTs: Martinez, Winkler, Rea, Ryan

Guarantees for 2021: $84 million

+ Rizzo option: $98.5

Trades

Rays get: Willson Contreras C, Jason Adam RHRP
Cubs get: Manuel Margot CF, Xavier Edwards IF, Josh Lowe CF, Joe Ryan RHRP

Royals get: David Bote 3B, Mark Zagunis RF
Cubs get: Ronald Bolanos RHP, Nick Lopez 2B

Indians get: Ian Happ CF, Chase Sturmpf IF
Cubs get: Lindor SS, Triston McKenzie RHSP

Blue Jays get: Alec Mills RHSP, Keegan Thompson RHSP. Christopher Morel IF
Cubs get: Ryan Borucki LHP, Hector Perez RHRP

Net payroll added: ~$11 million
Payroll: ~$110 mililon

Arb raises: $41.4 million

Total: $151.4 million

FA (~$35 million):

Stroman RHSP
Doolittle LHRP
Pillar CF
Lester LHSP
Lowrie 2B/1B/DH
J. Castro C
Kennedy RHRP
B. Hamilton CF/OF

Final 2021 payroll: ~$200 million

2022+ guaranteed money added: 0 unless Stroman is a 3 year deal

C: Caratini#, Castro*
1B: Rizzo*, Lowrie#
2B: Baez, Lopez*, Lowrie #
SS: Lindor#, Baez, Lopez*
3B: Bryant, Baez, Fox

LF: Schwarber*, Hamilton#
CF: Pillar, Margot, Hamilton
RF: Heyward*, Margot, Hamilton

SP depth:

Darvish
Hendricks
Stroman
Lester*
Alzolay
Borucki*
Bolanos
Jones*
Abbott
McKenzie

Bullpen:

Kimbrel
Doolittle*
Kennedy
Wick
Borucki*
Bolanos
Perez
Mekkes
Ryan
Abbott
Carraway *
Jones*

*LHP/LHH
# Switch hitter

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:24 am
by Cubswin11
We aren’t coming close to running a ~$200 mil payroll in 2021

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:32 am
by TomtheBombadil
Cubswin11 wrote:We ain’t running a ~$200 mil payroll in 2021


TBF that's $200 in the way that 2020's was $201 and change

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:52 am
by Cubswin11
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:We ain’t running a ~$200 mil payroll in 2021


TBF that's $200 in the way that 2020's was $201 and change

Okay? Why does that matter? There’s clear indications costs/payroll cuts are going to be drastic in 2021 and possibly beyond. Thinking they will maintain 2020 costs/payroll is completely unrealistic. I think we are looking at $150-160 million payroll range at best in 2021 (using 162 games as the basis and no pro-rating). And that horsefeathering sucks but think it’s the reality, they probably would prefer it lower but I don’t think it’s overly possible to get lower with all the moves it would take and lack of buyers/spenders this offseason.

If we could run a ~$200 mil payroll, somehow magically, I am a big fan of your overall plan outline above though.

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:12 am
by TomtheBombadil
Cubswin11 wrote:Okay? Why does that matter? There’s clear indications costs/payroll cuts are going to be drastic in 2021 and possibly beyond. Thinking they will maintain 2020 costs/payroll is completely unrealistic. I think we are looking at $150-160 million payroll range at best in 2021 (using 162 games as the basis and no pro-rating). And that horsefeathering sucks but think it’s the reality, they probably would prefer it lower but I don’t think it’s overly possible to get lower with all the moves it would take and lack of buyers/spenders this offseason.


Sorry, the way I see it you're speculating as much as I am. They ran a nominal $200+ during the pandemic, fired a bunch of people already before the offseason, and this doesn't stop payroll coming down in the '22+

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:15 am
by Ding Dong Johnson
Tim wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:This is gonna be bad, idk if there’s a season until they figure out a new CBA. The players won’t just keep going along with this.


He'd be a solid pickup for second base next year

YOU WATCH YOUR horsefeathers MOUTH

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:17 am
by Tim
I like the idea of McKenzie being a throw in on that Lindor trade, but I'm not sure Cleveland goes for that.

And when I say "I'm not sure Cleveland goes for that" I mean "there's no way Cleveland even considers going for that"

Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:22 am
by TomtheBombadil
Tim wrote:I like the idea of McKenzie being a throw in on that Lindor trade, but I'm not sure Cleveland goes for that.

And when I say "I'm not sure Cleveland goes for that" I mean "there's no way Cleveland even considers going for that"


Yeah, the more attainable arm I like is Logan Allen LHSP. He's not McKenzie but has some rotation upside and throws pretty hard

Re:

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:27 am
by Cubswin11
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Okay? Why does that matter? There’s clear indications costs/payroll cuts are going to be drastic in 2021 and possibly beyond. Thinking they will maintain 2020 costs/payroll is completely unrealistic. I think we are looking at $150-160 million payroll range at best in 2021 (using 162 games as the basis and no pro-rating). And that horsefeathering sucks but think it’s the reality, they probably would prefer it lower but I don’t think it’s overly possible to get lower with all the moves it would take and lack of buyers/spenders this offseason.


Sorry, the way I see it you're speculating as much as I am. They ran a nominal $200+ during the pandemic, fired a bunch of people already before the offseason, and this doesn't stop payroll coming down in the '22+

Agree to disagree I suppose. I just don’t see how you look at this climate and facts we have and think they will come close to a ~$200 mil payroll in 2021. The 2020 payroll was largely locked in before the pandemic, they didn’t plan it knowing it was going to happen and they basically were stuck with it. I think they (and most of MLB) are going to be cutting payroll at drastic levels for 2021.

I don’t think it matters that you can spend in 2021 at 2020 levels +/- but leave 2022 clean.

Re: Re:

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:33 am
by TomtheBombadil
Cubswin11 wrote:Agree to disagree I suppose. I just don’t see how you look at this climate and facts we have and think they will come close to a ~$200 mil payroll in 2021. The 2020 payroll was largely locked in before the pandemic, they didn’t plan it knowing it was going to happen and they basically were stuck with it. I think they (and most of MLB) are going to be cutting payroll at drastic levels for 2021.

I don’t think it matters that you can spend in 2021 at 2020 levels +/- but leave 2022 clean.


Didn't they add to the payroll at the trade deadline? That's not the actions of a team feeling forced into a payroll situation. Am I forgetting a trade?