2020 Offseason Thread

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Re: Re:

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:36 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Agree to disagree I suppose. I just don’t see how you look at this climate and facts we have and think they will come close to a ~$200 mil payroll in 2021. The 2020 payroll was largely locked in before the pandemic, they didn’t plan it knowing it was going to happen and they basically were stuck with it. I think they (and most of MLB) are going to be cutting payroll at drastic levels for 2021.

I don’t think it matters that you can spend in 2021 at 2020 levels +/- but leave 2022 clean.


Didn't they add to the payroll at the trade deadline? That's not the actions of a team feeling forced into a payroll situation. Am I forgetting a trade?

They added a few mil at most (Maybin, Hamilton, Martinez, Chafin, the other lefty I think was it) nothing crazy and also nothing that obligated them this year+. Don’t know how those marginal adds in season means they can run $200+ mil back.
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Re: Re:

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:55 am

Cubswin11 wrote:They added a few mil at most (Maybin, Hamilton, Martinez, Chafin, the other lefty I think was it) nothing crazy and also nothing that obligated them this year+. Don’t know how those marginal adds in season means they can run $200+ mil back.


So basically under pandemic conditions so far, just sticking to ML payroll, they:

- ran a payroll that, for LT purposes, was over $200
- they added to that payroll at the trade deadline

These seem like things to not dismiss so easily, particularly after winning the division!

Payroll coming down isn't something they have to force, is happening "naturally"
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:36 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:I thought I'd hold out until NTs too but this magiccame to me in a vision, couldn't not share:

Pre-NT deadline trade

Phillies get: Albert Almora CF, Ryan Tepera RHRP
Cubs get: Damon Jones LHP

NTs: Martinez, Winkler, Rea, Ryan

Guarantees for 2021: $84 million

+ Rizzo option: $98.5

Trades

Rays get: Willson Contreras C, Jason Adam RHRP
Cubs get: Manuel Margot CF, Xavier Edwards IF, Josh Lowe CF, Joe Ryan RHRP

Royals get: David Bote 3B, Mark Zagunis RF
Cubs get: Ronald Bolanos RHP, Nick Lopez 2B

Indians get: Ian Happ CF, Chase Sturmpf IF
Cubs get: Lindor SS, Triston McKenzie RHSP

Blue Jays get: Alec Mills RHSP, Keegan Thompson RHSP. Christopher Morel IF
Cubs get: Ryan Borucki LHP, Hector Perez RHRP

Net payroll added: ~$11 million
Payroll: ~$110 mililon

Arb raises: $41.4 million

Total: $151.4 million

FA (~$35 million):

Stroman RHSP
Doolittle LHRP
Pillar CF
Lester LHSP
Lowrie 2B/1B/DH
J. Castro C
Kennedy RHRP
B. Hamilton CF/OF

Final 2021 payroll: ~$200 million

2022+ guaranteed money added: 0 unless Stroman is a 3 year deal

C: Caratini#, Castro*
1B: Rizzo*, Lowrie#
2B: Baez, Lopez*, Lowrie #
SS: Lindor#, Baez, Lopez*
3B: Bryant, Baez, Fox

LF: Schwarber*, Hamilton#
CF: Pillar, Margot, Hamilton
RF: Heyward*, Margot, Hamilton

SP depth:

Darvish
Hendricks
Stroman
Lester*
Alzolay
Borucki*
Bolanos
Jones*
Abbott
McKenzie

Bullpen:

Kimbrel
Doolittle*
Kennedy
Wick
Borucki*
Bolanos
Perez
Mekkes
Ryan
Abbott
Carraway *
Jones*

*LHP/LHH
# Switch hitter


Nobody knows what the FA market is going to be like, but I think you're underestimating the amount that your FAs will get.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby abmillis » Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:36 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:This is gonna be bad, idk if there’s a season until they figure out a new CBA. The players won’t just keep going along with this.



Hope STL makes more moves like this so they can lock up Yadi and Wainright. Always in favor of our rivals getting rid of productive players to show loyalty to old guys.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:37 pm

Backtobanks wrote:Nobody knows what the FA market is going to be like, but I think you're underestimating the amount that your FAs will get.


Yeah, $35 is low. I built some room in between 200 and what you actually get adding 35 to 151.4 but also think that gap is easily closed by more realistic pricing. This is what I'm guessing:

Stroman RHSP - $20
Doolittle LHRP $5
Pillar CF - $6
Lester LHSP - $5
Lowrie 2B/1B/DH - $2
J. Castro C - $6
Kennedy RHRP - $1-2
B. Hamilton CF/OF - $1-2

Maybe I'm less into a top of the market FA SP like Stroman. I'm definitely in the mindset that fixing the lineup will straighten up everything currently wrong with the org but ownership, which is a universal issue. It feels like Stroman's standing in my imaginary offseasons until the NT deadline next month. Plus if the Mets' sale goes through, my guess is he's in NYC for 2021
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:52 pm

Continue to give me the under on $20m a year for Stroman, but also I'll take the under on our payroll getting anywhere near that number, so it probably washes out.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:31 pm

Another indication of payrolls going way down. Also this would tell me Kimbrel has little trade value.

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby champaignchris » Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:38 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:
Tim wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:This is gonna be bad, idk if there’s a season until they figure out a new CBA. The players won’t just keep going along with this.


He'd be a solid pickup for second base next year

YOU WATCH YOUR horsefeathers MOUTH


He is among the most annoying of Cardinals.

He’d also be a pretty solid upgrade at 2nd base who might be had for not much money and time.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:45 pm

TBF, the Cubs shouldn't have any interest in moving Kimbrel (who is way better than Hand anyway). Getting another top LHRP on the FA market is nice though, Doolittle and Hand really fit. Notable is that Doolittle's never made more than $6.5 million in a season and that was this year during which he threw 7.2 bad innings...I'm liking the chances of walking away with one of these established LHRPs at a possible big bargain price
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tim » Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:52 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Another indication of payrolls going way down. Also this would tell me Kimbrel has little trade value.


yeah...I wish the team had a whole bunch of disposable cash right now.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:58 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Another indication of payrolls going way down. Also this would tell me Kimbrel has little trade value.



This is really bad. Wong you can argue would have happened anyway because of how flooded the 2B market is going to be, plus the fact they already have Edman. And everyone else prior to this was certainly going to happen regardless. But in a normal market Hand would be due 3-5 years at 15+ a year. Hopefully this is just Cleveland being Cleveland, and this offseason is more bad than apocalyptic.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:18 pm

Bertz wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Another indication of payrolls going way down. Also this would tell me Kimbrel has little trade value.



This is really bad. Wong you can argue would have happened anyway because of how flooded the 2B market is going to be, plus the fact they already have Edman. And everyone else prior to this was certainly going to happen regardless. But in a normal market Hand would be due 3-5 years at 15+ a year. Hopefully this is just Cleveland being Cleveland, and this offseason is more bad than apocalyptic.


I lean towards this being Cleveland being Cleveland during the Pandemic. Them not being willing to pay a reliever $10 million should surprise zero people, even less as a result of the pandemic, and then when you notice he's lost alot of velocity the past two years despite relative health and the shortened 2020 it just seems like them making a tough call
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:33 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Another indication of payrolls going way down. Also this would tell me Kimbrel has little trade value.



This is really bad. Wong you can argue would have happened anyway because of how flooded the 2B market is going to be, plus the fact they already have Edman. And everyone else prior to this was certainly going to happen regardless. But in a normal market Hand would be due 3-5 years at 15+ a year. Hopefully this is just Cleveland being Cleveland, and this offseason is more bad than apocalyptic.


I lean towards this being Cleveland being Cleveland during the Pandemic. Them not being willing to pay a reliever $10 million should surprise zero people, even less as a result of the pandemic, and then when you notice he's lost alot of velocity the past two years despite relative health and the shortened 2020 it just seems like them making a tough call


I think it's bigger than Cleveland. It's them coming to the conclusion that he has no/negative trade value at that dollar amount.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Brian » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:39 pm

Is putting a player with an option a team doesn't plan on picking up on waivers just a thing that always happens at this point of an offseason but it's never really a news story?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:40 pm

squally1313 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:
This is really bad. Wong you can argue would have happened anyway because of how flooded the 2B market is going to be, plus the fact they already have Edman. And everyone else prior to this was certainly going to happen regardless. But in a normal market Hand would be due 3-5 years at 15+ a year. Hopefully this is just Cleveland being Cleveland, and this offseason is more bad than apocalyptic.


I lean towards this being Cleveland being Cleveland during the Pandemic. Them not being willing to pay a reliever $10 million should surprise zero people, even less as a result of the pandemic, and then when you notice he's lost alot of velocity the past two years despite relative health and the shortened 2020 it just seems like them making a tough call


I think it's bigger than Cleveland. It's them coming to the conclusion that he has no/negative trade value at that dollar amount.


Exactly. Thought this was interesting though. Teams might be incredibly austere early in the offseason and then open it up a bit in Jan/Feb depending on how much better things look?

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:44 pm

^^ I agree on the buying time thing, waiting for more info, are making what they consider obvious cuts (even a big name one like Hand)

squally1313 wrote:I think it's bigger than Cleveland. It's them coming to the conclusion that he has no/negative trade value at that dollar amount.


I would imagine a huge factor in that trade value, outside of salary, is the drop in velocity. Nobody wants a $10 million dollar reliever throwing 91-92 MPH these days even if the results have been there
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:46 pm

Yeah while we'll never know exactly how much of a team's revenue is based on ticket sales/in stadium revenue, it's obviously a healthy piece of the pie and front offices are going to lean on that to keep costs down until there's more certainty.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:07 pm

Tim wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Another indication of payrolls going way down. Also this would tell me Kimbrel has little trade value.


yeah...I wish the team had a whole bunch of disposable cash right now.

Yup. Don’t even necessarily need a whole bunch. $20-30 mil is gonna go a long ways. You could conceivably bring in Wong/Hernandez/Profar as a 2B option, Pillar as the RHH/contact OF option and Maybin as the 5th OF. Then could still add Q and another SP.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:09 pm

Non tendering Schwarbs and swapping him out for Eaton is something I wouldn’t mind doing to help change the offense profile. That move plus adding Pillar and Maybin (NT Almora) and then trade Bote for a swing man type then add 2 of Wong/C. Hernandez/Profar/LaStella/Adam Frazier (rumored NT candidate) for 2B/utility would go a long ways to diversifying the offensive profile and wouldn’t cost much at all.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:09 pm

Bruce Levine wrote:On the position player side, the Cubs need hitters who can make better contact and control the strike zone. Former Cubs infielder Tommy La Stella appears to be on the team’s radar again. Nico Hoerner progressed well at second base, but La Stella brings a skill set the Cubs lack. He was primarily a singles hitter in his first stint in Chicago. He still has that contact ability but now has more power, posting an .832 OPS in 2019 and an .819 OPS in 2020 in the two seasons since he left the Cubs.


Noooooo thanks, still a horrendous defensive player

Frankly, there's a darkness inside of me OK with a Wong/Keke Hernandez platoon setup at 2B should the Cubs not do the coolest possible thing that everyone in this heckhole deserves to see (Lindor/Baez MIF). In a vacuum, they're really both quality FA fits for the roster. Hernandez can backup every spot but catcher, defends and hits LHP enough to help the OF too, counters Wong's weakness against LHP at 2B. My biggest issue with this setup beyond it's existence would be that Hernandez is not an ideal backup SS
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:51 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bruce Levine wrote:On the position player side, the Cubs need hitters who can make better contact and control the strike zone. Former Cubs infielder Tommy La Stella appears to be on the team’s radar again. Nico Hoerner progressed well at second base, but La Stella brings a skill set the Cubs lack. He was primarily a singles hitter in his first stint in Chicago. He still has that contact ability but now has more power, posting an .832 OPS in 2019 and an .819 OPS in 2020 in the two seasons since he left the Cubs.


Noooooo thanks, still a horrendous defensive player

Frankly, there's a darkness inside of me OK with a Wong/Keke Hernandez platoon setup at 2B should the Cubs not do the coolest possible thing that everyone in this heckhole deserves to see (Lindor/Baez MIF). In a vacuum, they're really both quality FA fits for the roster. Hernandez can backup every spot but catcher, defends and hits LHP enough to help the OF too, counters Wong's weakness against LHP at 2B. My biggest issue with this setup beyond it's existence would be that Hernandez is not an ideal backup SS

Yeah I’m not overly interested in TLS unless he comes a ton cheaper than these other guys who do similar offensive things and can actually play defense and multiple spots. I could live with Wong and K. Hernandez as adds. They fit well. Nico would still be around to backup SS in the scenario Javy goes down. Between Nico, Hernandez and even Wong or Bote faking it there here and there we’d be okay.

Regardless, there’s a ton of really nice FA options to help with the contact and platoon issues we have. None should cost a ton. I’m going to be disappointed if we can’t add 2-3 of them between IF and OF options (really would prefer 3-5 of them if there’s some shuffling like Schwarbs and/or Bote going out).
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:20 pm

A deal with Pittsburgh built around David Bote for Joe Musgrove is my current favorite route. Considering Adam Frazier is a possible NT, Bote would be a good fit as a 2B who can back up 3B for Ke'Bryan Hayes. It'd require more on the Cubs's side.

Also, old friend Aaron Brooks is an intriguing target
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:31 pm

^^ Yes please. Bote might be an awkward fit for the Pirates but I'd be into a trade for Frazier and Musgrove

Cubswin11 wrote:Regardless, there’s a ton of really nice FA options to help with the contact and platoon issues we have. None should cost a ton. I’m going to be disappointed if we can’t add 2-3 of them between IF and OF options (really would prefer 3-5 of them if there’s some shuffling like Schwarbs and/or Bote going out).


I actually have to disagree, and think their primary route to improvement needs to be trades. Of the Wong/Hernandez/Hernandez/Profar/La Stella FA group only Wong and Cesar Hernandez can actually play 2B defensively on a hypothetically full time basis, only Wong might do it really really well, both struggle against LHP, and the only one in the whole bunch who is a great bet to hit if healthy is La Stella. Profar's a LF, Keke is really a better defensive OF than infielder, and Frazier has to be NT'd to become available in a non-trade

Some suggested trade targets among LHH or switch hitting 2B/IF that might shake loose:

Joey Wendle - Might be buried on a depth chart that now has Brandon Lowe established at 2B, though he's so cheap they might just have him work in with Diaz at 3B next year, good defensive player

Nick Lopez - Basically Cesar Hernandez offensively in the minors (.296/.378/.403 in 1579 PAs), team might be ready to move him since they want OBP and he's got a sub-.300 one in nearly 600 ML PAs entering his age 26 season next year, speed, contact, and defense player who can handle SS in a pinch

Ryan McMahon - Might get pushed out if the Rockies give top prospect Brendan Rodgers a starting job, arb eligible this offseason, reverse splits (.792 vs LHP, .720 v RHP)

Niko Goodrum - Switch hitter has been a nifty player for the Tigers in recent years, started every position but catcher, mashes LHP (.323/.383/.480 in 282 PAs)

Shed Long - Some swing and miss and not a good defender, but maybe the most power in this bunch

Taylor Walls - Switch hitting Rays SS that may take Wendle's job or be traded so Wendle can keep his job? Whoever is available between the two works

Tzu-Wei Lin - Probably the cheapest guy here to trade for, also the one most likely to get his value from defense as he can play SS well, has struck out in scattered ML PAs but contact hitter throughout the minors,
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:47 pm



^^ See, if you throw gas and dominate there's not much of an issue. Britton, had he become avaiable, is a guy I could see better lined up for a multi-year deal at $15+ moreso than Hand
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:55 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:^^ Yes please. Bote might be an awkward fit for the Pirates but I'd be into a trade for Frazier and Musgrove

Cubswin11 wrote:Regardless, there’s a ton of really nice FA options to help with the contact and platoon issues we have. None should cost a ton. I’m going to be disappointed if we can’t add 2-3 of them between IF and OF options (really would prefer 3-5 of them if there’s some shuffling like Schwarbs and/or Bote going out).


I actually have to disagree, and think their primary route to improvement needs to be trades. Of the Wong/Hernandez/Hernandez/Profar/La Stella FA group only Wong and Cesar Hernandez can actually play 2B defensively on a hypothetically full time basis, only Wong might do it really really well, both struggle against LHP, and the only one in the whole bunch who is a great bet to hit if healthy is La Stella. Profar's a LF, Keke is really a better defensive OF than infielder, and Frazier has to be NT'd to become available in a non-trade

Some suggested trade targets among LHH or switch hitting 2B/IF that might shake loose:

Joey Wendle - Might be buried on a depth chart that now has Brandon Lowe established at 2B, though he's so cheap they might just have him work in with Diaz at 3B next year, good defensive player

Nick Lopez - Basically Cesar Hernandez offensively in the minors (.296/.378/.403 in 1579 PAs), team might be ready to move him since they want OBP and he's got a sub-.300 one in nearly 600 ML PAs entering his age 26 season next year, speed, contact, and defense player who can handle SS in a pinch

Ryan McMahon - Might get pushed out if the Rockies give top prospect Brendan Rodgers a starting job, arb eligible this offseason, reverse splits (.792 vs LHP, .720 v RHP)

Niko Goodrum - Switch hitter has been a nifty player for the Tigers in recent years, started every position but catcher, mashes LHP (.323/.383/.480 in 282 PAs)

Shed Long - Some swing and miss and not a good defender, but maybe the most power in this bunch

Taylor Walls - Switch hitting Rays SS that may take Wendle's job or be traded so Wendle can keep his job? Whoever is available between the two works

Tzu-Wei Lin - Probably the cheapest guy here to trade for, also the one most likely to get his value from defense as he can play SS well, has struck out in scattered ML PAs but contact hitter throughout the minors,

I hate all these names other than Goodrum. The FA options are all better. That’s a sucky list of sucks otherwise. Nico will be around for late inning defense if needed at 2B. We just ran Kipnis out there a decent amount. Other than TLS I’m not worried about defense at 2B of the FA options mentioned. The offense and profile of the FAs are all so much better and safer than the trade options.
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