2020 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:12 am

Cubswin11 wrote:I hate all these names other than Goodrum. The FA options are all better. That’s a sucky list of sucks otherwise. Nico will be around for late inning defense if needed at 2B. We just ran Kipnis out there a decent amount. Other than TLS I’m not worried about defense at 2B of the FA options mentioned. The offense and profile of the FAs are all so much better and safer than the trade options.


- Hoerner should open the year in the minors if not traded, or if starting should be starting over any of these FAs
- Kipnis coming in his time with the Cubs was a better 2B defender than Profar, La Stella obvy, and both Hernandezs. Was about +6 by UZR in his last ~2700 innings there when signed, none of those guys are + defenders. Yes, Kipnis came down - but if the + old guy came down then what's going to happen to the - old guy (I include Profar here with his multiple knee surgeries - just did that with Souza - and other injuries)
- I'd say of those already older and more expensive FA options the only ones who are really really good bets to be league average or better hitters in 2021 are La Stella and Profar (missed him because barely)

The Cubs should be looking for their Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Keke Hernandez, Jacob Turner and this offseason will offer that kind of opportunity. Tunnel vision for some retreads who aren't any better than the previous retread FA they'd ideally like to upgrade from (Kipnis) before he was signed just isn't the best option with *so many* players likely to be available. I'm honestly not even sure it's riskier
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:18 am

Named After Maddux wrote:A deal with Pittsburgh built around David Bote for Joe Musgrove is my current favorite route. Considering Adam Frazier is a possible NT, Bote would be a good fit as a 2B who can back up 3B for Ke'Bryan Hayes. It'd require more on the Cubs's side.

Also, old friend Aaron Brooks is an intriguing target


It's interesting how many high end pitchers were briefly Cubs before going elsewhere and blossoming. Like I saw in Sharma's latest article that Liam Hendriks was a Cub for like 10 minutes in 2014ish. Reading between the lines, this seems part of why the FO pushed so hard to go from Maddon/Bosio to Ross/Hottovy
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:11 am

Speaking of Aaron Brooks, here is a very intense analysis by this guy:



http://benhowell71.com/aaron-brooks-report/

His slider and curveball drew whiff rates in the mid-30s, his changeup was 25+%...Compared him to Merrill Kelly and Kwang Hyun Kim...Pitch mix is sinker/slider/changeup/four seam/curve - very similar to where Alzolay's mix is going trading velocity for strikes...
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:05 am

Rizzo’s option not being picked up yet is a little concerning (options deadline is Sunday). Hopefully they’re just hammering out an extension.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:12 am

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:24 pm

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:18 pm



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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:27 pm

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Derwood » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:20 am

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:50 am

Max Schrock isn’t a terrible pickup. He seems like decent contacty depth and could be TLS like.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:02 am

Goood one, he woulda shoulda coulda made that list of LHH IF. I was going to add Carlos Cortes from the Mets, tomato tomahto. Schrock can hit, hopefully the coaches in the laboratory can combine science, math, and technology to unlock some power. Most hopefully he's MiL depth to open the season since that's a need too. He's got at least one option year if not two left maybe

First HR was at Wrigley off a lefty:

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:21 am



-----

With Schrock in the fold and close enough to the whole 2B/IF thing plus the bonus of options, I'd really like to see them bring in a RHH OF with at least some ability to fake it in CF. As things stand, Zagunis is their upper minors OF depth and he's a NT or release candidate. I'm insane so there's some of a list but there are a few I really like and see as small trade targets particularly the first guy:

Jaylin Davis RF/CF Giants 5'11 215 (age 27 on 7/1/21)

Highlights:

- Led the International League (AAA) in SLG for 2019 (.708, min 98 PAs)
- Hit .333/.419/.686 in the PCL after being traded (for Sam Dyson)
- Hit 35 HRs overall
- .274/.349/.481 in 1810 PAs
- .307/.398/.482 vs LHP in 2018 between two pitcher friendly stops (FSL A+ and SOU AA)
- 24th round pick in 2015 (earner!)
- Out of App. St, a school with some decent sports programs

Derek Hill CF Tigers 6'2" 200 (25 for all the 2021 season)

Highlights:

- One of the handful best CF defenders out there probably, really good in any case
- 10th in HRs in the EL (AA) during 2019 at 23, above league average bat in a tough offensive environment
- 56 SBs between 2018-2019, 156 in the minors (5 full seasons, 6 overall)
- Former first round pick out of HS

Cedric Mullins CF Orioles 5'8 175 (26 until 10/1/21)

Highlights:

- Switch hitter
- 15% K rate, .161 IsoSLG in the MiLs in 2231 PAs
- Positive contributor during pandemicball, ~ league average hitter
- More playable CF, UZR doesn't love him but it's not alot of innings, there's enough to work in a bench role for howeverlongitlasts
- 33 SBs in the MiLs during 2019
- Ideally a 5th OFer but depth clearly has been an issue with this team
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby cl smooth » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:06 pm

Nick Castellanos doesn't opt out of Reds contract as there’s a drive into deep left field by Castellanos and that’ll be a home run. And so that’ll make it a 4-0 ballgame. I dont know if I’ll ever be putting on this headset again.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:34 pm

Good to see the Ricketts family aren’t quite cartoon villains, just your normal every day real world villains

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:07 pm



Much want:

- Throws really hard (~97)
- Changeup draws nearly 25% whiff rate in his career, is a different outpitch from what's already in the pen
- Doesn't mean a ton but he's held up in a few playoff appearances
- Just 42 HRs allowed in 581.1 pro IP, 746 Ks and 436 Hs too



MLBTR wrote:After undergoing Tommy John surgery in August, Kahnle will miss most and quite possibly all of the 2021 season, making him a logical non-tender candidate. Headed into his third trip through the arbitration process, Kahnle was projected to earn $2.7MM, or a minimal raise on his $2.65MM salary from 2020 given that he pitched a single inning this season.

In electing to become a free agent, Kahnle will now look for a change of scenery in a new organization and see if he can land a two-year commitment — as per the usual model for TJ recovery cases, Kahnle would earn a minimum salary in the first year of the contract and then a larger salary in the second year when he is expected to actually pitch. Finding such a contract in this troubled free agent market could be a challenge, though Kahnle has delivered enough results on the mound that a club might be convinced to take what should still be a relatively inexpensive plunge.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:09 pm



The 31-year-old Sugano is one of Japan’s most decorated pitchers, winning the Central League MVP in 2014 and Sawamura Award (the Japanese version of the Cy Young award) in 2017 and 2018. He had a back injury in 2019 and did not pitch to his career norms, but this season he is 13-1 with a 2.02 ERA. His fastball registers just 90-92 mph regularly, but his excellence is built around his array of pitches and pinpoint control (he has averaged 1.7 walks per nine innings for his career).

...

Two MLB scouts who have a history covering Sugano project him as a strong No. 3 type starter in the majors.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:04 pm

Since it seems they'll come up at least early, if the Cubs make any trades with the Braves that doesn't bring in Michael Harris Jr. and/or Mahki Backstrom then Theo can go horsefeathers a goat. Shewmake's alright too but those guys are huge ceiling and still relative unknowns
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:07 pm



Didi Gregorius without a QO is interesting. I wonder how into 2B he and his agents would be? 2B posted a 91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 and 93 in 2019 and 2018
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby champaignchris » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:07 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1323018906378899457?s=20

Didi Gregorius without a QO is interesting. I wonder how into 2B he and his agents would be? 2B posted a 91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 and 93 in 2019 and 2018


Everyone but Bauer and Realmuto should probably jump on that QO.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:07 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1323018906378899457?s=20

Didi Gregorius without a QO is interesting. I wonder how into 2B he and his agents would be? 2B posted a 91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 and 93 in 2019 and 2018


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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:31 pm

Steve Cohen being portrayed as the savior owner is just hilarious. I don't doubt he'll spend and raise the profile of the Mets, not that part, just the automatic worship and reverence for literally a criminal by media is something else. The NFL leaking video of Laremy Tunsil smoking weed in college to Disney before the draft impacted Tunsil's money, reputation, and future more than paying $1.8 billion to settle a guilty plea for insider trading impacted Cohen's
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:18 pm



Food for thought, though I don't actually agree with this take. I actually thought Gausman getting one was a somewhat encouraging sign for this winter. If he'd done what he did over a full season, total no-brainer, but over only 60 innings that's actually somewhat aggressive. And Semien not getting one is slightly surprising, but his 2019 was very clearly juiced ball aided. And here in 2020 Statcast backs up the idea that he declined in all phases.

It's not good news certainly, but I thought the QO decisions were one of the first signs the bottom isn't going to completely fall out from the market this winter.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm

BN posted some interesting comments McDaniel made about Ha-Seong Kim:

Kim put up crazy numbers in the KBO (basically between Double-A and Triple-A for a domestic comparison) in his early 20s and can play a solid shortstop. Getting the rest of his 20s for a reasonable figure is a unique free-agent opportunity for rebuilding teams that normally spend only on relievers they can trade at the next deadline for prospects. For the numbers crowd, he’s a low-end starting shortstop due to the performance; and for the scouting crowd, he’s a little more like a nice-to-have utility piece who might not have an above-average carrying tool in the big leagues.

In this situation, interested clubs would want to sign Kim to a six-year deal to get all of his controlled years before he’s entitled to free agency, but a bidding war would get that to a lower number with a clause allowing him to get to free agency quicker, along with a shot to opt into arbitration if he thinks he’ll make more there in Years 4-6 rather than the guaranteed money. The guarantee past a third year is more for Kim to have security if he becomes a non-tender (basically if he’s a stone-cold backup) rather than to collect it if he’s playing well. I’ll guess there’s enough competition for him that he can get $20 million in less than a six-year deal.


Gd is sports coverage dystopian. *Immediately* this guy's accomplishments are undermined and discussion of the player rather than his contract is limited to two sentences: the first and the underlined during which he's referred to as a "piece." Anyway, there's no mention of improved walk rates (~12% over his last 1200+ PAs), high contact, the 30 HR season he just had, the speed - all things the league will be happy to market once he's signed for the kind of contract suggested probably

I was under the impression this was guy was perceived as David Fletcher the MLerish, but it's more David Fletcher the prospect where we have to wonder about position and whether the AAA breakout is real first...Very clever owners and Disney, very clever, gotta admit these guys are good and pretty unbeatable

If I were a SS FA this year, even Simmons, every team would be hearing about how willing I am to play 2B+. wRC+ at SS in 2020 was 101 vs 91 at 2B
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:19 pm

MLBTR has their top FAs and predictions. Some players of note and interest:
Quintana to the Red Sox $18m/2 yrs.
Taijuan Walker to the Nationals $16m/2yrs
Cesar Hernandez to the Diamondbacks $6m/1yr.
Lester to the Braves $5m/1yr
Chris Archer to the Cubs $4m/1yr.

With all the talk of trading Bryant, Contreras, and/or Schwarber for financial reasons I would think we could afford a few of the players above to fill holes. My favorites would be Walker, Quintana, and Hernandez.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:59 pm

Based on the MLBTR contract estimates I’d be interested in some combo of;

-Q 2/18
-Wong 2/16
-Profar 1/7
-Ray 1/6
-C. Hernandez 1/6
-Minor 1/6
-Desclafani 1/4

They have Stroman at 4/68 so yeah no thanks at that or anything more.
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