2020 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:02 pm

The Mets were already going to be one of the big spenders/buyers and now with Cano busted for PEDs that opens up another $24 mil. If we blow it up for whatever reasons seems like they’re a fit for a lot of our guys. KB, Willy, Yu, Javy and maybe even Kimbrel.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:38 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:The Mets were already going to be the me off the big spenders/buyers but with Cano busted for PEDs that opens up another $24 mil. If we blow it up for whatever reasons seems like they’re a fit for a lot of our guys. KB, Willy, Yu, Javy and maybe even Kimbrel.


Not totally blowing it up, but how about KB and Kimbrel for Dominic Smith and Familia. I included Familia to give them a little break on Kimbrel's salary. We would end up saving about $25 million.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:33 pm

Backtobanks wrote:We would end up saving about $25 million.


Iunno about you, but I'm not getting horsefeathers out of that
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:03 am



Now that Theo Epstein has stepped down, what do you expect to see from the Cubs the rest of this offseason?

Buster Olney: Massive turnover. The Cubs have signaled to other teams they are going to alter the core of position players that won the World Series in 2016 and they're open to talk about everyone from Yu Darvish to Javier Baez. The perception of other teams is that the club is dealing with major financial stresses.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:49 am

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1329039922133684224?s=19

Now that Theo Epstein has stepped down, what do you expect to see from the Cubs the rest of this offseason?

Buster Olney: Massive turnover. The Cubs have signaled to other teams they are going to alter the core of position players that won the World Series in 2016 and they're open to talk about everyone from Yu Darvish to Javier Baez. The perception of other teams is that the club is dealing with major financial stresses.


Let’s presume that this “major financial stress” is real (and it’s not), how the horsefeathers did we get there? Everyone is dealing with COVID, the network was launched, you own the whole neighborhood, the teams value has literally quadrupled since you bought the team. I don’t understand how you could possible be under major financial stress unless they are incredibly mismanaged and/or they are throwing their money at Trump.

Maybe all the renovations and developments put them in debt. But clearly they are poised to recoup all that pretty quickly and it’s not like the Cubs are the family’s only revenue source.

I get it, it’s all a bunch of BS, but why are the Cubs crying poor twice as loud as any other team in baseball?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:18 am

UMFan83 wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1329039922133684224?s=19

Now that Theo Epstein has stepped down, what do you expect to see from the Cubs the rest of this offseason?

Buster Olney: Massive turnover. The Cubs have signaled to other teams they are going to alter the core of position players that won the World Series in 2016 and they're open to talk about everyone from Yu Darvish to Javier Baez. The perception of other teams is that the club is dealing with major financial stresses.


Let’s presume that this “major financial stress” is real (and it’s not), how the horsefeathers did we get there? Everyone is dealing with COVID, the network was launched, you own the whole neighborhood, the teams value has literally quadrupled since you bought the team. I don’t understand how you could possible be under major financial stress unless they are incredibly mismanaged and/or they are throwing their money at Trump.

Maybe all the renovations and developments put them in debt. But clearly they are poised to recoup all that pretty quickly and it’s not like the Cubs are the family’s only revenue source.

I get it, it’s all a bunch of BS, but why are the Cubs crying poor twice as loud as any other team in baseball?

There’s no doubt it’s likely only a short term cash crunch and they’ll be fine in the long run, however real and serious this may or may not be. But I could see how they could be in a pretty bad short term spot and low on cash (talking Cubs specific in a vacuum, not the overall Ricketts empire). Even though they didn’t spend more the last few years they still ran high payrolls (as they should) and they were over the LT the last 2(?) which requires the additional penalty payments. Revenue has mostly dried up and they’ve presumably leveraged up and taken on a ton of debt.

The TV deal wasn’t a cash infusion, they took the long term/equity play starting the network and it required funding up front. They didn’t get some big payment from fox sports or Comcast or whatever, the payoff on that is down the road. They’ve stuck a ton in to Wrigley and surrounding areas (rooftops, bars, restaurants, hotel, parking, Wrigley stadium renovations/improvements, etc.) and that was shut down for a whole year when it should’ve been [expletive] out cash and there’s uncertainty to project when that will be getting back to normal. They probably used a large chunk of the appreciation of the Cubs asset(s) and future cash projections to leverage in to debt to fund all these other ventures and the debt service right now likely is a pretty big number with uncertainty about when revenue will return to support it (again Cubs business in a vacuum, not overall Ricketts).

That would be my best guess at it. But part of being a billionaire sports owner is sucking it up during the bad times (which are rare) because they get so many benefits and so much upside when times are good.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:20 am

Tbf no one in the org has actually said that payroll is coming down and one of the first things that happened is the Cubs picking up Rizzo's option. The Marlins got more credit for picking up Marte's $12 million
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:12 am

Bertz wrote:
Now that Theo Epstein has stepped down, what do you expect to see from the Cubs the rest of this offseason?

Buster Olney: Massive turnover. The Cubs have signaled to other teams they are going to alter the core of position players that won the World Series in 2016 and they're open to talk about everyone from Yu Darvish to Javier Baez. The perception of other teams is that the club is dealing with major financial stresses.


Do it, cowards. I'm bored.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:58 pm

Behold:
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:01 pm

In other words, for those who TL;DR -ed my post the other day:

The Cubs had a 500m construction budget but spent 1b on construction prior to covid, and now on top of that HALF A BILLION DOLLARS IN OVERAGES, they have covid losses PTR has described as “biblical”...

...as well as economic uncertainties of many kinds on the horizon...next year’s attendance figures, the upcoming CBA negotiations and the possibility of a lockout, somewhat unfavorable-to-fatcats electoral results, the possibility that the interest rate might rise, etc.

Logical arguments can be made about maintaining a high payroll to keep fans happy and revenues high; certainly a few million now would be a tiny slice of the overall picture & could mean a lot of revenue in the future, and the Ricketts do have deep enough pockets to do that if they wish. But they have been clear that they will make a financial plan first, and then merely let Jed do whatever he can with the leftovers that constitute his slice it. Debt retirement is the goal; competitiveness is the (to them) trivial afterthought.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:33 pm

SaorsaDaonnan wrote:In other words, for those who TL;DR -ed my post the other day:

The Cubs had a 500m construction budget but spent 1b on construction prior to covid, and now on top of that HALF A BILLION DOLLARS IN OVERAGES, they have covid losses PTR has described as “biblical”...

...as well as economic uncertainties of many kinds on the horizon...next year’s attendance figures, the upcoming CBA negotiations and the possibility of a lockout, somewhat unfavorable-to-fatcats electoral results, the possibility that the interest rate might rise, etc.

Logical arguments can be made about maintaining a high payroll to keep fans happy and revenues high; certainly a few million now would be a tiny slice of the overall picture & could mean a lot of revenue in the future, and the Ricketts do have deep enough pockets to do that if they wish. But they have been clear that they will make a financial plan first, and then merely let Jed do whatever he can with the leftovers that constitute his slice it. Debt retirement is the goal; competitiveness is the (to them) trivial afterthought.


Simple solution - Put the Cubs up for sale. PTR makes a huge profit and still owns the whole neighborhood and Cub fans get an owner that might loosen the purse strings.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:55 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Simple solution - Put the Cubs up for sale. PTR makes a huge profit and still owns the whole neighborhood and Cub fans get an owner that might loosen the purse strings.


Sure, if your aim is simply to describe a good plan. But many posters are trying to make predictions about the actual future of the franchise and then say how they would operate as baseball ops guys within the limits of their predictions...

...but their predictions are silly, based on the idea that the owners’ overriding goal is to win, and the false idea that the owners believe they have the wherewithal to spend.

If they write that the Cubs will not build around the Caratinis and Botes of the world because those players aren’t good enough, or that the Cubs won’t choose to save money because that wouldn’t be good for fans, they’re misunderstanding everything about the causal processes they’re trying to describe.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:36 pm



Yeah it really sounds like this is gonna happen. Interestingly though, it sounds like they're open to moving pitching, but not necessarily pushing for it. If you combine these last few national reports with what we've heard from the local guys, my sense is that they aren't under directive to cut additional payroll, but that they're already near their (PTR imposed) cap. So in order to do anything beyond a couple of split contracts, they need to move salary.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:18 pm

Personally I predict a 2021 team like the following:

Darvish
Hendricks
3-4m veteran
Mills
2m veteran plus Alzolay up to innings limit

Contreras
Rizzo
cheapness (Hoerner playing every day in minors)
Bote
Baez

Happ / cheap filler
cheap filler / Happ
Heyward

Caratini as DH

Trade Deadline Dealable reliever

Assumptions/expectations:

* They’ll talk at length about Darvish, Hendricks, Contreras deals but not get offers that combine enough $$$ with enough prospect/young controllable player value

* They’ll talk about Baez but get offers that are cautious because of his bad year, and just keep him ‘til the deadline. If the team is good, keeping his value/upside for a half season and then adding a QO later is fine if you can’t work out a long term deal; if the team isn’t good, at least hope he had a good first half so that the positive recent work raises his value about as much as the half-season’s worth of service time use lessens it...and/or that someone is very excited about contending and overpays

* That KB is dealt for a low-A, 50-ish pitching prospect but mostly salary relief for payroll reduction, while Schwarber is nontendered or traded before the season for primarily salary relief. Maybe the Cubs could pull a Strop and steal a good player somehow, but under this plan that’d mostly come as a bonus

* That Kimbrel is dealt for a bag of balls but 2/3 of his salary picked up by another team, which we use to sign a lower ceiling but higher floor reliever on a 1 or 2 year deal, someone we could either keep or deal at the deadline

* That the team will spend the offseason talking about its desire for controllable SPs but not find anyone interested in trading that kind of player in these times

* Outside shot of long term deal for Baez, Rizzo, etc in Spring Training, but I am probably just wishcasting here
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:35 am

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1329454407747039241?s=19

Yeah it really sounds like this is gonna happen. Interestingly though, it sounds like they're open to moving pitching, but not necessarily pushing for it. If you combine these last few national reports with what we've heard from the local guys, my sense is that they aren't under directive to cut additional payroll, but that they're already near their (PTR imposed) cap. So in order to do anything beyond a couple of split contracts, they need to move salary.


Honestly, if you are going a full re-start, then you need to place all your chips into restocking the system. As much as there's some high level intrigue now, most of it is far away with a lot of risk at hand. If you are selling, then you need to go all-in on selling, and if that's the case, your two assets that are likely to net the most impactful young talent in return would be Darvish and Hendricks. Hendricks would probably, at that contract, get a high level return. You'd arguably be selling high on Darvish, and the remaining deal (looks like 3/59) ought to be palatable enough for the Cubs to get a quality return without eating any of the money (if eating money would help increase the return, they should obviously do it).

Either way, if you are going to dip your toes into that pool. you need to jump in. Half-measures only extend and delay the inevitable. I don't know Cubs fans sites very well anymore, but I did see someone suggest moving Heyward. While that would be nice, it's hard to see that happen. Kimbrel ... it's hard to see a team taking him in the off-season. Mid-season, sure.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:50 am

Speaking on Hendricks, I'd be surprised if they couldn't get a pretty big deal for Hendricks, considering his age, production, and contract. It might entail some more lower level guys, but honestly, with a restart, or whatever the term is, you don't need young MLB players. You need quantity of quality young assets for a system that's still relatively thin at the top.

The ideal Hendricks trade needs to focus on quality of assets, if it's a restart, rather than position. If, though, the focus is on improving the young pitching depth in the system, I don't think it'd be that ridiculous to suggest Hendricks could net say, an upper level, close to ready young arm, a high upside arm in the A ball ranks, and maybe another lottery ticket (or two). Now, considering his age, it'd likely have to be a team that is in their window right now.

The usual teams would likely get mentioned in trades, like the A's, Mets, Braves, but the team I'd be looking at, if the focus is on pitching, would be the Royals. With limited budget flexibility, and needing rotation depth, Hendricks would be a nice veteran to front that group. They have a bunch of young arms in the system - if you can pry one of say, Lacy/Lynch/Kowar to headline a deal (I'd be stunned if you could get more than 1), it'd be the start of a pretty intriguing package. Of course, a lot of teams could put up something comparable.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:43 pm

There is a world of difference between getting Asa Lacy and one of those other two though. Lacy is so much better
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:09 pm

I still don't think the Cubs will start over. Trading KB, Schwarber, and Contreras makes the team the epitome of mediocrity, but that might be enough in the NL Central. It wouldn't surprise me if the NL Central winner wins 82-85 games. Of course that's assuming Baez and Rizzo return to form and Hendricks, Darvish, Heyward, and Happ have similar years as 2020.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:34 pm

toonsterwu wrote:Honestly, if you are going a full re-start, then you need to place all your chips into restocking the system. As much as there's some high level intrigue now, most of it is far away with a lot of risk at hand. If you are selling, then you need to go all-in on selling, and if that's the case, your two assets that are likely to net the most impactful young talent in return would be Darvish and Hendricks. Hendricks would probably, at that contract, get a high level return. You'd arguably be selling high on Darvish, and the remaining deal (looks like 3/59) ought to be palatable enough for the Cubs to get a quality return without eating any of the money (if eating money would help increase the return, they should obviously do it).

Either way, if you are going to dip your toes into that pool. you need to jump in. Half-measures only extend and delay the inevitable. I don't know Cubs fans sites very well anymore, but I did see someone suggest moving Heyward. While that would be nice, it's hard to see that happen. Kimbrel ... it's hard to see a team taking him in the off-season. Mid-season, sure.


I don't have a problem tearing it down to the studs, but I think because of the lack of quality in our division you don't necessarily *have* to. You certainly need to make a trade or two that hurts, trading like Kimbrel and Schwarber does nothing. I think Darvish and Hendricks would each bring in Quintana-esque returns, but moving them wouldn't be my Plan A. Maybe I'm naive but I'm hoping to do more of a retool than a rebuild.

I've said it a couple times, but I think if you do still want to compete Bryant and Contreras is the path to go. We have high quality backups for each, while Bryant opens up funds to use in FA and Contreras brings in legitimate star power on the prospect front. I hate getting too bogged down on specific names, but something like Contreras to the Marlins for Bleday, Rogers, and another top 20 guy? A Contreras trade likely ends up really moving the needle on the farm system. Bryant's much harder to value, maybe to the Giants for Mauricio Dubon? That might require a few more names to balance it out.

Also, on just a pure cold numbers front, trading Javy makes some sense. If you backfilled him with Andrelton Simmons, you're not losing much if anything on defense and you're probably knocking out 100 strikeouts. That's something that will be felt at the team level. That said, I have a more visceral reaction to moving Javy than any of the other position players except for Rizzo.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Post Count Padder » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:44 pm

Maybe I'm being naive but I don't think they NT Schwarbs and they hang onto KB at least for now given his stock is so low. I'm expecting them to trade Contreras for prospects and salary relief though and let Caratini take over until Amaya is ready in two years.

I could see them spinning Kimbrel's second half positively and getting a team to take on his contract for a nothing prospect but considering brad hand was let go, idk how realistic that is. Might just be stuck with him.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:38 pm

Post Count Padder wrote:Maybe I'm being naive but I don't think they NT Schwarbs and they hang onto KB at least for now given his stock is so low. I'm expecting them to trade Contreras for prospects and salary relief though and let Caratini take over until Amaya is ready in two years.

I could see them spinning Kimbrel's second half positively and getting a team to take on his contract for a nothing prospect but considering brad hand was let go, idk how realistic that is. Might just be stuck with him.


Yeah, we're at the point where the only way to get anything of note for Bryant or moving Kimbrel at all would require eating some money and with Ricketts crying poor, neither is likely to happen.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:51 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
Post Count Padder wrote:Maybe I'm being naive but I don't think they NT Schwarbs and they hang onto KB at least for now given his stock is so low. I'm expecting them to trade Contreras for prospects and salary relief though and let Caratini take over until Amaya is ready in two years.

I could see them spinning Kimbrel's second half positively and getting a team to take on his contract for a nothing prospect but considering brad hand was let go, idk how realistic that is. Might just be stuck with him.


Yeah, we're at the point where the only way to get anything of note for Bryant or moving Kimbrel at all would require eating some money and with Ricketts crying poor, neither is likely to happen.


I might be overly optimistic, but I'd be a bit surprised if they can't eat any of, say, Bryant's contract for a better prospect. I highly doubt they can absorb all or even half of Bryant's $18-20mil, but if a team like the Braves needs the Cubs to cover $5 mil to get his contract down to $15 mil, then I think (hope) the Cubs would take the better deal for $5 mil. Obviously all conjecture, but moving 75% of these bigger contracts is still significant savings for a team and should be palatable even to Ricketts.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby champaignchris » Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:01 pm

I think, more likely than the Cubs just sending cash with Bryant is them taking back a bad, but cheaper contract in return. So, in the Braves’ case maybe Ender Inciarte.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bear Cub » Fri Nov 20, 2020 9:24 pm

Restart? Watch this Board bitch and cry when they are 20 games out of first place.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby CoolHandLuke » Fri Nov 20, 2020 9:43 pm

Bear Cub wrote:Restart? Watch this Board bitch and cry when they are 20 games out of first place.


I don't think you understand this board if you think people here will care about the standings during the first year of a complete teardown.

Or I guess maybe I don't understand the board.
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