KingCubsFan wrote:Sustained success was always dependent on keeping a top farm system. That obviously hasn’t happened. So now you’re faced with heading off the cliff in 2021 or waiting until everybody leaves in 2022. I don’t think we’re getting much for anybody outside of Contreras, so I wouldn’t blame the Cubs if they ran it back one more time due to a winnable division. But my guess is Theo and Jed had differing views on that, and my money is on Jed wanting to tear it down this offseason.
Yeah, I completely agree that they hoped to avoid painful choices by having great prospects ready to step in at multiple positions right about now, if not over the past couple years. But lacking that, faced with a choice between tanking, raising payroll, or being out of contention but not tanking, with a couple marketable stars but no real playoff shot, I think the family has always leaned toward #3. Not sure about that, hope I’m wrong, but I always suspected it, and despite the fact that I’ve been arguing that the writing seems to be on the wall about big payroll cuts, I’m also skeptical that the org would choose to tank.
Since terms like teardown may be interpreted differently by each of us, the concrete thing I’m expecting is that the team keeps Rizzo, Darvish, Hendricks, and perhaps Baez to give a lowball extension offer to at some point, but does approximately zilch over the next few years to add anybody from the FA market.
If Hoerner/Alzolay/Marquez/Davis/any trade returns turn out to be useful in, say, 2022, we could be looking at a reasonable team still built around Baez/Rizzo/Darvish/Hendricks, but like my projected 2021 team, still one gradually built up through existing young assets rather than blowing it all up and bringing in a ton of new, low minors youth.
I can see the argument that the approach I’m describing might be worse than tanking, but predictions should be based on observed trends rather than ones own value judgments, and IMO this is where the rhetoric has been pointing for a while.
I also have a question for everybody: if Jed goes to Tom and says he wants to sell off literally every good player we have, do the rest of you expect that Tom would ok it?