2020 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby champaignchris » Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:15 pm

CoolHandLuke wrote:
Bear Cub wrote:Restart? Watch this Board bitch and cry when they are 20 games out of first place.


I don't think you understand this board if you think people here will care about the standings during the first year of a complete teardown.

Or I guess maybe I don't understand the board.


It will depend, right? Trade Hendricks and Darvish, have a top 10 system heading into the season, and no one will care what the standings are, especially if guys like Marquez debut.

Do a blatant salary dump without adding any significant young talent, and yeah, people are going to scream if the team is 20 games out of what looks like it’s going to be a winnable division.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:27 pm

I honestly though he was trying to call someone a bored bitch and spelled it wrong.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:59 pm

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:02 pm

Victor Robles or buzz off, Nats

Oh and Tim Cate
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:57 pm

champaignchris wrote:
CoolHandLuke wrote:
Bear Cub wrote:Restart? Watch this Board bitch and cry when they are 20 games out of first place.


I don't think you understand this board if you think people here will care about the standings during the first year of a complete teardown.

Or I guess maybe I don't understand the board.


It will depend, right? Trade Hendricks and Darvish, have a top 10 system heading into the season, and no one will care what the standings are, especially if guys like Marquez debut.

Do a blatant salary dump without adding any significant young talent, and yeah, people are going to scream if the team is 20 games out of what looks like it’s going to be a winnable division.


With Theo gone and a World Series title, if this team decides to just tank and not have a top 5-7 payroll for multiple years, I won't be bitching because I will have lost total interest.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 21, 2020 12:11 am

^^ Yeah, if this team sucks next year then NSBB will be crickets
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Sat Nov 21, 2020 12:18 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Victor Robles or buzz off, Nats

Oh and Tim Cate


The days of this as a possibility are long gone and likely so are the chances of landing Kieboom. At this point I think I'd be thrilled walking away with Jackson Rutledge and Seth Romero.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 21, 2020 12:57 am

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/presenting- ... nderizing/

The Cubs cut employees’ salaries in May and laid off more than 100 people last month, so this seems like a situation where payroll will be reduced pretty significantly. Front office folks I’ve spoken to about Kris Bryant don’t think he’ll be non-tendered but they do think the combination of his poor 2020 performance and 2021 salary (slated to be north of $20 million) have tanked his trade value. I think they’ll ultimately tender Kyle Schwarber at about $8 million, but that they’ll also look to move him between now and July.


Some notables by tier....

Likely:

Daniel Norris
Jose Urena
Luis Perdomo? Eh
Hanser Alberto? Eh
Luke Jackson?

Tough call:

Ryne Stanek
Vince Velazquez

Unlikely:

Manuel Margot
Tommy Pham
Zach Davies
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Post Count Padder » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:02 am

Renato Nunez a surprising non tender by the Orioles considering he isn't that expensive and as a power bat who isn't useless defensively could prob have been a trade candidate at the very least.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:33 am

I always got the impression PTR wanted to evolve the franchise according to a specific plan:

1. Tank and invest in infrastructure
2. Have a massive crop of prospects appear and be really young and good
3. Spend big money to complement that crop and get a title
4. Transition to a new, permanent future of mostly 85-90 win teams based on a budget comfortably below the LT threshold and an a priori commitment to never tanking again

IMO our moves this offseason will be determined by the extent to which Ricketts is or isn’t interested in revising the “no more tanking” approach in light of the money problems, and by the extent to which other teams’ baseball ops departments could get authorization from their owners to add salary like Darvish or Hendricks.

If only half of teams are closing their checkbooks and we’re the only one dumping, we may get particularly great offers on those two. If not, like others have said, our division is competitive in the sense that it should be a many-horse race, but it’s wide open in the sense that nobody is looking like a probable juggernaut.

Bottom line though: with neutral luck, we should still have a divisionally competitive team if we dump KB, Schwarber, and Kimbrel to fix the financial problem. If the market offers good value for Contreras, Darvish, Hendricks, we can take advantage of it if Ricketts ok’s a teardown, but if we get bad offers or Ricketts says no, we’re still ok.

The bad part about this offseason is that it’s about loss and decline, but the good part is that all the future scenarios involve plausibly okayish baseball in the future.
Last edited by SaorsaDaonnan on Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:10 am

From Jed’s point of view, I would guess the schedule looks like this:

Now - Dec 2:

Make a decision on Schwarber, decide on whether you’re bringing in or promoting a front office #2, set up any interviews, have first round of talks if applicable

Second week of Dec:

Finalize any FO personnel decisions and very proactively survey market for Bryant and Kimbrel, plus Schwarber if tendered. Also listen on anyone else.

Winter Meetings through Jan:

Deal KB if a remotely acceptable deal materializes. Schwarber and Kimbrel for whatever you can get. Contreras for great prospects if you get good offers, but no pressure to move him yet if not.

Feb and Mar:

The main time for talking about Darvish or Hendricks trades, hopefully after having moved enough salary that you make the decision purely in baseball ops terms without pandemic or construction overage money problems interfering. Also the time for any extension talks and any of our probably tiny FA signings. No reason you couldn’t still talk Contreras too, unless he’s already dealt.

*****************

So obviously you make a trade whenever you get an offer you really like — the schedule is just to organize your own process and not a roadblock to addressing aggressive early offers from other teams. And yes, if you want a particular cheap innings eater FA who is likely to get snapped up quickly, sure, you act as soon as you can...

...but generally, the additions would wait until late, and again, you would be making any Darvish and Hendricks moves after moving the money. At that point you would also have a clearer idea of what the divisional competition is doing, and since that probably won’t be a lot, you will probably be looking at increased confidence that you can run with the pack in 2021 and hope for some good breaks. And if you do go into the season with Bote and Caratini and a lesser, cheaper outfield but otherwise basically the same team, then even if you get bad breaks and suck, in all probability Darvish and Hendricks would still be great trade chips at the deadline, so you become a popular phone call at that point instead, with the ability to hold out until the following offseason if teams won’t meet your price.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:22 pm



Kiley suggests the Rays for Bryant, though TBF it's in more of a dot-connecty than rumor-y way:

Acquiring Kris Bryant and his roughly $20 million salary in his final arbitration season for some midlevel prospects would be an intriguing and surprisingly realistic deal. There's some buzz the Rays actually have money to spend this offseason, as they suffered the least in terms of lost game-day revenue. Factor in Charlie Morton, Mike Zunino, Chaz Roe and Oliver Drake hitting free agency and some further potential cuts like non-tendering Hunter Renfroe and there's a good bit of money off the books.

I'm not sure the Rays have room to re-sign Morton, sign two catchers and take on Bryant's deal, but that's at least in the realm of possibility.


Also seems notable that they need catching and we're almost certain to deal a catcher this winter
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby KingCubsFan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:51 pm

SaorsaDaonnan wrote:4. Transition to a new, permanent future of mostly 85-90 win teams based on a budget comfortably below the LT threshold and an a priori commitment to never tanking again.

Sustained success was always dependent on keeping a top farm system. That obviously hasn’t happened. So now you’re faced with heading off the cliff in 2021 or waiting until everybody leaves in 2022. I don’t think we’re getting much for anybody outside of Contreras, so I wouldn’t blame the Cubs if they ran it back one more time due to a winnable division. But my guess is Theo and Jed had differing views on that, and my money is on Jed wanting to tear it down this offseason.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:55 pm

I too have kicked around Bryant/Rays. Mostly in the sense that the Rays are smart, would see the perks in having a former MVP in his 20s on a one year deal. They line up beautifully with the Cubs in general: are nearly the ideal Contreras match and too clever to not be into buying Bryant or even Schwarber at the giveaway prices...Overall, I like the Blue Jays a little more as a match especially for Contreras but I expect all the more clever teams in the league regardless of budgetz/cap space to be involved in guys the Cubs might just give away like Bryant and Schwarber. I don't know how much it matters, look at what the Rangers and Marlins accomplished, but I really wouldn't be stunned if the Rays suddenly became buyers to distract and win over the public as they seek out public money and land for a new private stadium
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:40 pm

KingCubsFan wrote:Sustained success was always dependent on keeping a top farm system. That obviously hasn’t happened. So now you’re faced with heading off the cliff in 2021 or waiting until everybody leaves in 2022. I don’t think we’re getting much for anybody outside of Contreras, so I wouldn’t blame the Cubs if they ran it back one more time due to a winnable division. But my guess is Theo and Jed had differing views on that, and my money is on Jed wanting to tear it down this offseason.


Yeah, I completely agree that they hoped to avoid painful choices by having great prospects ready to step in at multiple positions right about now, if not over the past couple years. But lacking that, faced with a choice between tanking, raising payroll, or being out of contention but not tanking, with a couple marketable stars but no real playoff shot, I think the family has always leaned toward #3. Not sure about that, hope I’m wrong, but I always suspected it, and despite the fact that I’ve been arguing that the writing seems to be on the wall about big payroll cuts, I’m also skeptical that the org would choose to tank.

Since terms like teardown may be interpreted differently by each of us, the concrete thing I’m expecting is that the team keeps Rizzo, Darvish, Hendricks, and perhaps Baez to give a lowball extension offer to at some point, but does approximately zilch over the next few years to add anybody from the FA market.

If Hoerner/Alzolay/Marquez/Davis/any trade returns turn out to be useful in, say, 2022, we could be looking at a reasonable team still built around Baez/Rizzo/Darvish/Hendricks, but like my projected 2021 team, still one gradually built up through existing young assets rather than blowing it all up and bringing in a ton of new, low minors youth.

I can see the argument that the approach I’m describing might be worse than tanking, but predictions should be based on observed trends rather than ones own value judgments, and IMO this is where the rhetoric has been pointing for a while.

I also have a question for everybody: if Jed goes to Tom and says he wants to sell off literally every good player we have, do the rest of you expect that Tom would ok it?
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:01 pm

Here’s a shorter version of my expectation:

“First we tanked, then we spent, now we’re the Tribune”
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:16 pm

SaorsaDaonnan wrote:
KingCubsFan wrote:Sustained success was always dependent on keeping a top farm system. That obviously hasn’t happened. So now you’re faced with heading off the cliff in 2021 or waiting until everybody leaves in 2022. I don’t think we’re getting much for anybody outside of Contreras, so I wouldn’t blame the Cubs if they ran it back one more time due to a winnable division. But my guess is Theo and Jed had differing views on that, and my money is on Jed wanting to tear it down this offseason.


Yeah, I completely agree that they hoped to avoid painful choices by having great prospects ready to step in at multiple positions right about now, if not over the past couple years. But lacking that, faced with a choice between tanking, raising payroll, or being out of contention but not tanking, with a couple marketable stars but no real playoff shot, I think the family has always leaned toward #3. Not sure about that, hope I’m wrong, but I always suspected it, and despite the fact that I’ve been arguing that the writing seems to be on the wall about big payroll cuts, I’m also skeptical that the org would choose to tank.

Since terms like teardown may be interpreted differently by each of us, the concrete thing I’m expecting is that the team keeps Rizzo, Darvish, Hendricks, and perhaps Baez to give a lowball extension offer to at some point, but does approximately zilch over the next few years to add anybody from the FA market.

If Hoerner/Alzolay/Marquez/Davis/any trade returns turn out to be useful in, say, 2022, we could be looking at a reasonable team still built around Baez/Rizzo/Darvish/Hendricks, but like my projected 2021 team, still one gradually built up through existing young assets rather than blowing it all up and bringing in a ton of new, low minors youth.

I can see the argument that the approach I’m describing might be worse than tanking, but predictions should be based on observed trends rather than ones own value judgments, and IMO this is where the rhetoric has been pointing for a while.

I also have a question for everybody: if Jed goes to Tom and says he wants to sell off literally every good player we have, do the rest of you expect that Tom would ok it?


I don't think Tom would ok it. As many of us have pointed out, getting rid of all (or most) of the salaries of KB, Schwarber, and possibly Contreras and Kimbrel makes PTR happy while fielding a competitive team (in a lousy division) maximizes his bottom line.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:25 pm

It’s crazy to me to see all the crazy contracts NBA teams handed out to role players this week and in the MLB even the richest teams are talking about gutting payroll and crying poor. I get that there are different dynamics in play between the 2 leagues but damn
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Derwood » Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:53 pm

UMFan83 wrote:It’s crazy to me to see all the crazy contracts NBA teams handed out to role players this week and in the MLB even the richest teams are talking about gutting payroll and crying poor. I get that there are different dynamics in play between the 2 leagues but damn


I'm sure the MLB owners would love to be paying 12 players instead of 40
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby The Logan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:32 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:^^ Yeah, if this team sucks next year then NSBB will be crickets


Honestly, the rebuilding years were probably the most invested I had ever been in the Cubs in my whole life. Theo had a lot to do with that, but if they blow it up and pull in some big prospects/youngsters I actually think I might be more interested than I have been the last couple of years.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:41 pm

UMFan83 wrote:It’s crazy to me to see all the crazy contracts NBA teams handed out to role players this week and in the MLB even the richest teams are talking about gutting payroll and crying poor. I get that there are different dynamics in play between the 2 leagues but damn

With the revenue sharing and the escrow account hold back thing they do (think they upped the % for this year) the contract exposure for NBA teams is far less than those surface level numbers if revenues tank this year for them. Players will have their salaries severely cut and what’s held back will cover the owners shortfalls.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:45 pm

The Logan wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:^^ Yeah, if this team sucks next year then NSBB will be crickets


Honestly, the rebuilding years were probably the most invested I had ever been in the Cubs in my whole life. Theo had a lot to do with that, but if they blow it up and pull in some big prospects/youngsters I actually think I might be more interested than I have been the last couple of years.


Back then, there were minor league game threads with more posts than a week of big league game threads.
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:54 pm

If they don’t blow it up and try and win this year.... NT’ing Schwarbs and going with a Renfroe/Eaton LF platoon would be intriguing. Probably costs about the same as Schwarbs.

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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:41 pm

The Logan wrote:Honestly, the rebuilding years were probably the most invested I had ever been in the Cubs in my whole life. Theo had a lot to do with that, but if they blow it up and pull in some big prospects/youngsters I actually think I might be more interested than I have been the last couple of years.


Alot of my current pessimism and tone for the teardown 2.0 strategy is most towards anyone giving up big obvious prospects and youngsters this offseason, otherwise would agree. It just doesn't seem like any whales are in play, it's going to be guys down the prospect ranks or already post-hype who hopefully do well enough to boost the profile of coaches and more important the more permanent pitching and hitting labs
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Re: 2020 Offseason Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:45 pm

Mired in mediocrity is the worst place you can be. They either need to go all in this year and accept that there's a 5 year rebuild coming or completely tear it down. They already wasted a ton of player value sending a very mediocre team onto the field in 2019.
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