2020 Offseason Thread

[Cubswin11]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

Howard and Davis absolutely can be Javy level. Same as that IFA kid (Hernandez, I think with the A-Rod comp). Amaya could be a well above average first division starter at catcher. There’s also a lot of other intriguing guys and at least a better infrastructure to develop them, I believe.

[TomtheBombadil]

On the impact homegrown SP front, Ryan Jensen's still set up pretty great. He was only 21 when draft, top performer with ideal arm strength and health maybe other stuff, and could set himself up to throw a meaningful quantity of ML innings at 24 in 2022. Pitching *depth* could be pretty awesome by 2023 if they added someone like Snell to Darvish and Hendricks up top

[SaorsaDaonnan]

So in case anyone missed it, yesterday’s press conference put to rest any remaining debate about what the offseason strategy is: try to win the division while adjusting to the new financial reality, keeping one eye on a future a little more than normal while also being opportunistic

Or in so many words, 1) not a teardown, 2) not keeping everybody even if better to, 3) not signing anybody big, 4) probably gonna move slowly

[jersey cubs fan]

So in case anyone missed it, yesterday’s press conference put to rest any remaining debate about what the offseason strategy is: try to win the division while adjusting to the new financial reality, keeping one eye on a future a little more than normal while also being opportunistic

Or in so many words, 1) not a teardown, 2) not keeping everybody even if better to, 3) not signing anybody big, 4) probably gonna move slowly

Hope that nobody else wins 89

[Backtobanks]

So in case anyone missed it, yesterday’s press conference put to rest any remaining debate about what the offseason strategy is: try to win the division while adjusting to the new financial reality, keeping one eye on a future a little more than normal while also being opportunistic

Or in so many words, 1) not a teardown, 2) not keeping everybody even if better to, 3) not signing anybody big, 4) probably gonna move slowly

Hope that nobody else wins 89

The NL Central winner could be as ugly as the NFC East.

[jersey cubs fan]

So in case anyone missed it, yesterday’s press conference put to rest any remaining debate about what the offseason strategy is: try to win the division while adjusting to the new financial reality, keeping one eye on a future a little more than normal while also being opportunistic

Or in so many words, 1) not a teardown, 2) not keeping everybody even if better to, 3) not signing anybody big, 4) probably gonna move slowly

Hope that nobody else wins 89

The NL Central winner could be as ugly as the NFC East.

I doubt the NL Central winner will lose 90 games

[rawaction]

Hope that nobody else wins 89

The NL Central winner could be as ugly as the NFC East.

I doubt the NL Central winner will lose 90 games

Pretty sure the NFC East winner will though.

[toonsterwu]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

Yes. I think the comparison of this year's crop to pre-2011 is closer than people would acknowledge (I'd take this group probably, value wise), but late 2011, Brett Jackson's swing was slowly getting exposed, and McNutt's stuff didn't show as well with a full season in AA. Baez's potential coming out might grade higher than Howard, but it probably isn't that big a gap.

Obviously, the key here is that we got another year's worth of data to assess Jackson and McNutt, and the world went south this year. We're missing that from Davis and Marquez. It's entirely possible by the end of 2021, it could go south (although if Davis struggles, I suspect it'll have less to do with swing dynamics and more to do with experience facing quality pitching).

[toonsterwu]

https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1331020390987165696?s=20

Contreras for Snell, doo it doo it

I'd do it, but color me surprised if Contreras can net Snell alone.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

The best prospect when Theo took over was Brett Jackson (lol)

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

The best prospect when Theo took over was Brett Jackson (lol)

A good friend who is much more of a casual fan texted me “You think he’s better than Brett Jackson???” when they traded for Rizzo.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

The best prospect when Theo took over was Brett Jackson (lol)

A good friend who is much more of a casual fan texted me “You think he’s better than Brett Jackson???” when they traded for Rizzo.

At least your friend didn’t confuse Jackson with Clayton Kershaw.

[TomtheBombadil]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-non-tender-candidates

- Cubs should come away with one of Jose Urena or Vince Velasquez if/when they get non-tendered, prefer the latter because of the wider pitch mix, superior athleticism, picked up a MPH on his sinker, is a little more flexible as Urena's been terrible out of the bullpen

- Carlos Rodon is a secretly a buy low opportunity. He threw 76 fastball in 2020, averaged 2 MPH over 2019, missed some time, and came back in September to throw 33 fastballs nearly averaging 96 MPH! His 2020 peak was over 98 MPH, a max he hasn't reached since 2017. I'm feeling some good joo joo, Hottovy can help him figure out an offspeed with the chageup drawing 20% whiffs in 2020

[Bertz]

Hoffman's always been a guy people think will pop after leaving the Rockies, but this still seems most likely to be a fairly nothing trade

[TomtheBombadil]

Reds and Rockies swapped NT candidate relievers, Hoffman and Stephenson...Hoffman's a Driveline guy and one of those cautionary tales that TJ surgery isn't some automatic fix, might have been an interesting buy low candidate but I don't really see this as a buy low trade

I'm not going to hold out much hope, but if the Rockies can get someone useful for Hoffman after years of trying to give him a job...maybe Almora can be moved before 12/2? Phillies and Blue Jays both have depth pitching and a need for CF depth. The Phillies really seem like a match seeing as nearly half their top 30 prospects are Rule 5 eligible, they can run a platoon with Almora/Haseley...All I'm looking for is Ranger Suarez or Damon Jones or Kyle Dohy or even Kyle Young

Also maybe promising for the Cubs is that the Rockies traded a 2020 draft pick, Case Williams...Luke Little probably appeals to teams just by existing as is

Edit: Beat by like 15 minutes lol...I wander alot

[TomtheBombadil]

JIC there's any question of how seriously to take a BN article about offseason moves: an article that portrays Bryant to the Dodgers as a totally definitely serious option to consider, wonders yet again whether to tender a contract to Kris Bryant this offseason...Shills be shilling

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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/ ... backs.html

Wouldn't mind Stock if he gets released. He's averaged close to 98 on his fastball during his ML callups, during 2020 posted a sub-.200 wOBA/xwOBA with his slider, only 3 HRs allowed in 60+ ML innings since 2018

[toonsterwu]

Reds and Rockies swapped NT candidate relievers, Hoffman and Stephenson...Hoffman's a Driveline guy and one of those cautionary tales that TJ surgery isn't some automatic fix, might have been an interesting buy low candidate but I don't really see this as a buy low trade

I'm not going to hold out much hope, but if the Rockies can get someone useful for Hoffman after years of trying to give him a job...maybe Almora can be moved before 12/2? Phillies and Blue Jays both have depth pitching and a need for CF depth. The Phillies really seem like a match seeing as nearly half their top 30 prospects are Rule 5 eligible, they can run a platoon with Almora/Haseley...All I'm looking for is Ranger Suarez or Damon Jones or Kyle Dohy or even Kyle Young

Also maybe promising for the Cubs is that the Rockies traded a 2020 draft pick, Case Williams...Luke Little probably appeals to teams just by existing as is

Edit: Beat by like 15 minutes lol...I wander alot

I think there's a lot more wishful dreaming on former high ceiling arms than there are on positional assets that haven't panned out over an extended run while showing similar issues/problems. That said, could I see a team potentially take a shot on Almora? Sure. I'm hard pressed to see anything more than a struggle swap (someone who has equally struggled in the bigs) or a low level lottery ticket type move.

[Southpaw19]

So in case anyone missed it, yesterday’s press conference put to rest any remaining debate about what the offseason strategy is: try to win the division while adjusting to the new financial reality, keeping one eye on a future a little more than normal while also being opportunistic

Or in so many words, 1) not a teardown, 2) not keeping everybody even if better to, 3) not signing anybody big, 4) probably gonna move slowly

The last 2 off-seasons have been glacial-paced, so I can't imagine this winter being anything but a snooze-fest.

[TomtheBombadil]

Maybe not this specific player, who will easily be the most expensive pitcher coming over, but I think this is a good year for the Cubs to finally shop for an international arm between the NPB and KBO. Kohei Arihara is a pure SP too with a bunch of offspeeds, can hit 95, seems like he'd do alright behind Darvish and Hendricks. Hirokazu Sawamura is a decorated reliever, maybe my favorite overall fit with a FB that hits 97 and a splitter for his outpitch. Out of the KBO, LHP Hyeon-Jong Yang is probably my next favorite fit after Sawamura since he's been durable and healthy and steady in the rotation for a long time. He's got very similar KBO numbers to Kwang Hyun Kim, who signed for only 2/$8 million last year, but hasn't had the injury issues Kim did. Unlike pretty much everyone I've mentioned this offseason, Yang does not throw hard

[Backtobanks]

https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1331686707331289093?s=20

JIC there's any question of how seriously to take a BN article about offseason moves: an article that portrays Bryant to the Dodgers as a totally definitely serious option to consider, wonders yet again whether to tender a contract to Kris Bryant this offseason...Shills be shilling

----

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/ ... backs.html

Wouldn't mind Stock if he gets released. He's averaged close to 98 on his fastball during his ML callups, during 2020 posted a sub-.200 wOBA/xwOBA with his slider, only 3 HRs allowed in 60+ ML innings since 2018

It is hard to figure out what's going on this off season. All of this speculation about Bryant's worth while every team is drooling over Lindor. I get lindor is great and plays SS, but Bryant's not exactly chopped liver.

[Post Count Padder]

Reds and Rockies swapped NT candidate relievers, Hoffman and Stephenson...Hoffman's a Driveline guy and one of those cautionary tales that TJ surgery isn't some automatic fix, might have been an interesting buy low candidate but I don't really see this as a buy low trade

I'm not going to hold out much hope, but if the Rockies can get someone useful for Hoffman after years of trying to give him a job...maybe Almora can be moved before 12/2? Phillies and Blue Jays both have depth pitching and a need for CF depth. The Phillies really seem like a match seeing as nearly half their top 30 prospects are Rule 5 eligible, they can run a platoon with Almora/Haseley...All I'm looking for is Ranger Suarez or Damon Jones or Kyle Dohy or even Kyle Young

Also maybe promising for the Cubs is that the Rockies traded a 2020 draft pick, Case Williams...Luke Little probably appeals to teams just by existing as is

Edit: Beat by like 15 minutes lol...I wander alot

I've gradually started rooting for/following the Phillies since I moved here years ago and I've thought about them as a trade partner various times the past couple years. It makes a lot of sense. I've liked Damon Jones awhile (homer ish, I met him in Reading and he signed a ball for me) and he has intriguing stuff as a lefty and is a little buried on their depth chart. Ranger suarez is another who has interesting stuff but nowhere to really go there.

[TomtheBombadil]

^^ They also left another LHP unprotected, Zach Warren. He pitched in the AFL last year, has allowed 4(!!!) HRs in nearly 150 pro innings with 220+...Just seems like there's a match there...among BOR and/or bullpen LHP depth they're at: Morgan, Alvarez, Irvin, Romero, Cleavinger, Jones, Suarez, Dohy, Sanchez, and Falter on their 40...plus Erik Miller their 2019 first round pick isn't so far behind
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ZiPs have been pretty positive on the Royals and Blue Jays pitchers I'd like to see the Cubs try and land:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-p ... ty-royals/

Overall, unlike the lineup, ZiPS does like some of the young talent here. Whereas the computer only has a single position player under 25 passing the five-win mark, it sees Kris Bubic, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, and Ronald Bolaños, along with Hernández, passing that threshold and projects 11 pitchers overall to finish their major-league careers above replacement-level should they get the opportunity. Between Bolaños and Cordero, ZiPS thinks the Royals acquired 10 WAR (pre-free agency) for Tim Hill, which is a solid return.

Richard Lovelady also has a decent projection. Also notable is that Lucius Fox and Nicky Lopez, two players I would not mind on the 2021 bench as backup SS/IF (Lopez hits LH, Fox is a switch hitter), both have positive projections and are glove first guys with speed

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-p ... blue-jays/

For the Blue Jays...Ryan Borucki, Sean Reid-Foley, and Simeon Woods-Richardson (of interest in a bigger trade like Contreras or, I guess, Bryant) all had positive projections. ZiPs thinks Woods-Richardson would hold his own in the MLs despite never pitching above High A, which maybe lines up with the baseball world being flatter

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It’s interesting to wonder whether the deep-pocketed Cohen is facing stiffer-than-usual headwinds in his rookie offseason.

Super relatable heroic underdog, fresh faced and green, rookie NYC MLB franchise owner, Steve-y Cohen, is having more trouble than expected completing his baseball brain trust. You hate to see any bump in the road for this guy, hope he can reach down deep into his thousands of millions of dollars to find someone willing to GM his ATM

[TomtheBombadil]

Is the farm system really all that much better now than it was in late 2011? I'll admit to not being *that* plugged in anymore, but I don't think we have any Javy Baez's on the way.

Ed Howard

Been thinking about this and figure it's probably not going to hurt to say it...Howard coming out of HS >> Baez coming out of HS

- He's bigger and more projectable, at 6'2" 185 coming out
- Higher graded SS defense, Baez was thought to end up at 3B and some even considered moving him to catcher
- Whereas Howard was the consensus best SS of his year, Baez was firmly behind Lindor
- While he doesn't have Baez's HR power, multiple showcase metrics have him among the more promising offensive players in his class (PG has him in hte 94th-98th percentile in 4 different bat speed and power metrics they keep for everyone)

I think what clouds it maybe besides the decade gap is that Baez went in the top 10 and Howard didn't, but both guys were the 5th prep taken in classes considered to be loaded with Howard being the first infielder taken in his HS class

This isn't to convince anyone that Howard's a whale before he has taken a PA, like even I need to see it even if I'm ready for it

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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/ ... ys-11.html

Non-tender candidates: Chirinos, Alvarado

Alvarado's average close to 98 MPH in the MLs as a LHP. Both of these guys could be interesting enough depth, Chirinos is sinker/splitter

[Bertz]

This is going to continue to be a very slow offseason, but we might get a burst of activity this week. I think if Schwarber goes anywhere this offseason it'll be pre-deadline. And this week is probably the most likely time for KB to go too, though it if he's still here on Thursday I don't think it changes the odds of a trade all that drastically.

[Backtobanks]

https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1332727397624451074?s=19

This is going to continue to be a very slow offseason, but we might get a burst of activity this week. I think if Schwarber goes anywhere this offseason it'll be pre-deadline. And this week is probably the most likely time for KB to go too, though it if he's still here on Thursday I don't think it changes the odds of a trade all that drastically.

Yankees are in need of a LH slugger, and MLBTR lists 3 cheap Yankee relivers (Cessa, Heller, and Holder) as non-tender candidates. Not great, but better than giving Schwarber away for nothing.