2020 Offseason Thread

[Backtobanks]

Cubs Insider offers some bold moves:
https://www.cubsinsider.com/2020/11/28/ ... JY3fk1n3Lc

I think he is delusional with the Merrifield/Hoerner swap and the White Sox trade for Schwarber, but the Bryant deal would be a good move. I'm not sure the Angels would give up that much pitching for Contreras and Happ.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Boy that is an aimless mess of bad moves

[Bertz]

Minor was my preferred safe but unexciting rotation option. Curious what he netted salary-wise

[Banedon]

[TomtheBombadil]

Sandy Alderson this weekend:

“We expect to be somewhat active in the free agent market as opposed to the trade market. We don’t want to give up our young guys,” Alderson said

Probably out on both Bryant and Lindor

[Bertz]

Well then

[TomtheBombadil]

Eljaua and Suarez, the two international leads, stood out. Some of it is because Eljaua is one of the few guys who actually talks to the press about Cubs prospects, but also because it's nice to see some confidence in the progress they at least for now only seem to be making. I'm taking it (because why not) as a passive endorsement of Richard Gallardo and Quintero, the highest ranked IFAs they've signed since Jimenez/Torres, and soon enough Crisitan Hernandez

[TomtheBombadil]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/11/30/kris- ... -with-cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cubs and Cardinals haven’t executed a trade for a player with Bryant’s star power since 1938, when St. Louis sent Dizzy Dean—the 1934 NL MVP and the runner-up in '35 and '36—to Chicago, where the dead-armed Dean made just 33 starts in four seasons before retiring. The closest modern example is Bruce Sutter, who won a Cy Young for the Cubs as a reliever in 1979 before they sent him to St. Louis the next year. Since then, the teams have consummated just three trades in almost 40 years.

But there's no doubting Bryant would be a near-perfect fit at third alongside Matt Carpenter. And he’d be an even better fit if the offensively starved Cardinals ended up needing a DH. Maybe he’ll end up in St. Louis once he reaches free agency at the same time as Carpenter. But it’s still hard to imagine Bryant in Cardinal red despite the neat on-paper fit.

[Cubswin11]

Always liked Urena. Think there’s a solid swing man/bullpen arm in there with maybe still a chance to make it as a mid-back end starter under the right coaching.

[TomtheBombadil]

Another pitcher I think they should be in on:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/ ... -bour.html

Former A’s righty Raul Alcantara was named the Choi Dong-won Award winner in the Korea Baseball Organization this week, writes Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency. Alcantara follows Josh Lindblom, who won the award in both 2018 and 2019, as the third straight former big leaguer to win the KBO’s Cy Young equivalent. The 27-year-old right-hander logged a pristine 2.54 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and just 1.4 BB/9 across 31 starts, totaling 198 2/3 innings of work on the whole. The 2020 campaign was Alcantara’s second in the KBO and first with the Doosan Bears, the team for which Lindblom previously starred. It’s not clear at this point whether Alcantara will explore a return to the Majors or look to further build his stock overseas. This year was a breakout for Alcantara, who pitched to a 4.01 ERA with the KT Wiz in 2019. He played this season on a one-year, $700K deal and should command a healthy raise from the Bears or another club if he wishes to return for a third season in the KBO.

At 27, he's one of the younger SPs out there in FA

Edit for velocity:

[Bertz]

While I like the idea in a vacuum, unfortunately Urena probably only makes sense if we trade a starter. None of him, Mills or Alzolay have options next year (I think, I know there was some iffiness on whether Alzolay would get a 4th). Given that all three would have pretty big questions on their expected performance, I would hate to be locked into keeping all three on the roster.

My #1 choice would be to go get Gray from Colorado. Given that he shows up on all of the potential non-tender lists, it seems pretty clear that he's in the Schwarber zone where even if he's not cut his trade cost will be minimal. I would gladly give up someone from the back half of the Top 30 to bring him in. He seems to be by far the most likely guy to pull a Gausman next season. Gray makes sense no matter what level of tearing it down is occurrs this winter.

[Backtobanks]

While I like the idea in a vacuum, unfortunately Urena probably only makes sense if we trade a starter. None of him, Mills or Alzolay have options next year (I think, I know there was some iffiness on whether Alzolay would get a 4th). Given that all three would have pretty big questions on their expected performance, I would hate to be locked into keeping all three on the roster.

My #1 choice would be to go get Gray from Colorado. Given that he shows up on all of the potential non-tender lists, it seems pretty clear that he's in the Schwarber zone where even if he's not cut his trade cost will be minimal. I would gladly give up someone from the back half of the Top 30 to bring him in. He seems to be by far the most likely guy to pull a Gausman next season. Gray makes sense no matter what level of tearing it down is occurrs this winter.

Schwarber for Gray straight up. Schwarber In Colorado might hit 50 homers.

[Cubswin11]

While I like the idea in a vacuum, unfortunately Urena probably only makes sense if we trade a starter. None of him, Mills or Alzolay have options next year (I think, I know there was some iffiness on whether Alzolay would get a 4th). Given that all three would have pretty big questions on their expected performance, I would hate to be locked into keeping all three on the roster.

My #1 choice would be to go get Gray from Colorado. Given that he shows up on all of the potential non-tender lists, it seems pretty clear that he's in the Schwarber zone where even if he's not cut his trade cost will be minimal. I would gladly give up someone from the back half of the Top 30 to bring him in. He seems to be by far the most likely guy to pull a Gausman next season. Gray makes sense no matter what level of tearing it down is occurrs this winter.

I’m pretty sure Adbert has another option year. But yeah I get not wanting to go all of Urena/Adbert/Mills in the rotation. Like I said I’d view Urena more as a bullpen piece (kinda like Rea). Adbert needs to be given the chance to sink or swing as a SP (he’ll obviously be on an innings limit so having extra SP depth this year will be big). I think Mills fizzles out if he’s given a full rotation sport over 162, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not on the roster/in the rotation by the ASB/trade deadline. He obviously deserves a spot to start the year but I think he blows up.

But yeah Gray needs to be a legit target in some way. Either as a NT FA or a trade target.

[Backtobanks]

While I like the idea in a vacuum, unfortunately Urena probably only makes sense if we trade a starter. None of him, Mills or Alzolay have options next year (I think, I know there was some iffiness on whether Alzolay would get a 4th). Given that all three would have pretty big questions on their expected performance, I would hate to be locked into keeping all three on the roster.

My #1 choice would be to go get Gray from Colorado. Given that he shows up on all of the potential non-tender lists, it seems pretty clear that he's in the Schwarber zone where even if he's not cut his trade cost will be minimal. I would gladly give up someone from the back half of the Top 30 to bring him in. He seems to be by far the most likely guy to pull a Gausman next season. Gray makes sense no matter what level of tearing it down is occurrs this winter.

I’m pretty sure Adbert has another option year. But yeah I get not wanting to go all of Urena/Adbert/Mills in the rotation. Like I said I’d view Urena more as a bullpen piece (kinda like Rea). Adbert needs to be given the chance to sink or swing as a SP (he’ll obviously be on an innings limit so having extra SP depth this year will be big). I think Mills fizzles out if he’s given a full rotation sport over 162, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not on the roster/in the rotation by the ASB/trade deadline. He obviously deserves a spot to start the year but I think he blows up.

But yeah Gray needs to be a legit target in some way. Either as a NT FA or a trade target.

I agree about Mills. I think he would be a good secondary piece in a trade (assuming the Cubs pick up another starter). A cheap option as a swingman could be our old friend Trevor Cahill.

[Cubswin11]

Please don’t NT Tepera (he’s projected for a little over $1 mil in arb, it’s no money and they may have unearthed something. Also want to keep Rea to a lesser degree but similar reasons that they may have found something in a 1 inning true reliever role).

[TomtheBombadil]

Posting this because I think the almost disappointed and suspicious or accusatory tone of the headline is hilarious:



That site's such an obvious plant and shill job...What sports blog and blogger gets profiled in the news anyway?

[TomtheBombadil]

Quality move, 2 year deal...His four seam picked up nearly 2 MPH in 2020 and drew an insane 22% whiff rate...OTOH hitters were able to hit HRs off of it and his secondary pitches seem underwhelming if productive

[TomtheBombadil]

Diamondbacks assistant GM Jared Porter “is the heavy favorite” to become the Cubs’ next general manager, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (subscription required). Newly-minted Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has stated that he wants to make an external hire for the GM job in order to bring a fresh viewpoint into the Cubs’ front office, though Porter is still a known quantity, having previously worked with Hoyer in both Chicago and Boston. Other speculative general manager possibilities for the Cubs include another Diamondbacks AGM in Amiel Sawdaye, as well as former Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill.

I've got nothing against Porter personally, the D'Backs' first 5 prospects on MLB.com are all possible beasts and they seem smart, but would still be disappointed for other reasons. Epstein talked about adding diversity to this FO, not just low hanging fruit like race but maybe just maybe moving away from these white guys from rich or wealthy families living in rich or wealthy parts of the country who attended highly exclusive schools that track their students for the most exclusive, high reward, low risk jobs *extremely* early in life. Porter would, in that sense, be more of the same.I just don't think it's a coincidence that, as FOs and baseball in general filled up jobs with these same-ish people, revenues exploded with more and more and more and more and more of it going to the top

[Bertz]

Good is probably a strong word for the SP market, but certainly much less bad than expected. At least so far.

[Cubswin11]

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1333886478921904129?s=19

Good is probably a strong word for the SP market, but certainly much less bad than expected. At least so far.

Yeah these early numbers have been decent. I still think there’s going to be a lot of guys who have to take 1 year deals in the $3-8 mil range and there will be good bargains for us to wait it out. Assuming Chatwood is healthy (don’t know if he ever had a surgery) I wouldn’t mind him back on a cheap/make good deal.

[TomtheBombadil]

Yeah, the owners have used the cover of a handful of deals over the years to hide how bad FA has gotten. This is no different, only instead of say Machado and Harper getting $300+ million, 2/$18 and 1/$11 is good enough. They're still going to reset records on MiL deals, split contracts, and non-guaranteed money this offseason

[Cubswin11]

Yeah, the owners have used the cover of a handful of deals over the years to hide how bad FA has gotten. This is no different, only instead of say Machado and Harper getting $300+ million, 2/$18 and 1/$11 is good enough. They're still going to reset records on MiL deals, split contracts, and non-guaranteed money this offseason

I mean of the pitchers signed who should’ve gotten significantly more? The numbers all seem pretty good (some seem to have exceeded my expectations and others on the board) given their age, injury risk, recent and expected performance, etc. Morton is 37 and wanted to stay close to home, Ray has been average to bad the last 3 years with major control issues, Smyly has thrown like 120 innings since 2016 with mixed results and looks more like a pen/swing man type player now, Minor has been average the last few years, is 33 and saw a velo drop this year. I think they all got pretty healthy amounts for what they are and where the market is.

[TomtheBombadil]

I mean of the pitchers signed who should’ve gotten significantly more?

It's less "these guys should have gotten way more" and more about how the league was able to reshape the optics in just a handful of signings extremely early into the offseason. It's a powerful tool to be able to reduce Charlie Morton down to just being 37 while also poking holes in the Value attached to the one year salary of the 29 YO Ray...Or say shaping the story of Kris Bryant as 2020 stats revealing his truest colors for the most part while simultaneously being able to downplay Smyly's 2020 results

[Backtobanks]

Diamondbacks assistant GM Jared Porter “is the heavy favorite” to become the Cubs’ next general manager, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (subscription required). Newly-minted Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has stated that he wants to make an external hire for the GM job in order to bring a fresh viewpoint into the Cubs’ front office, though Porter is still a known quantity, having previously worked with Hoyer in both Chicago and Boston. Other speculative general manager possibilities for the Cubs include another Diamondbacks AGM in Amiel Sawdaye, as well as former Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill.

I've got nothing against Porter personally, the D'Backs' first 5 prospects on MLB.com are all possible beasts and they seem smart, but would still be disappointed for other reasons. Epstein talked about adding diversity to this FO, not just low hanging fruit like race but maybe just maybe moving away from these white guys from rich or wealthy families living in rich or wealthy parts of the country who attended highly exclusive schools that track their students for the most exclusive, high reward, low risk jobs *extremely* early in life. Porter would, in that sense, be more of the same.I just don't think it's a coincidence that, as FOs and baseball in general filled up jobs with these same-ish people, revenues exploded with more and more and more and more and more of it going to the top

While diversity is certainly a goal, most executives are going to hire the "known" factor of success in the current crop of available candidates. This is especially true of teams that consider themselves contenders.

[TomtheBombadil]

While diversity is certainly a goal, most executives are going to hire the "known" factor of success in the current crop of available candidates. This is especially true of teams that consider themselves contenders.

While it's not great yet this is the most diverse group of qualified candidates in history just with Ng and Hill up top, Billy Owens (a former player turned coach turned scout turned Asst GM for a highly analytical FO) and Sawdaye, and who knows who else (Eric Kubota? Victor Wang? James Harris?)...None of these people would be higher than the #2 in the org so I don't think you're damaging the contender label. Hill and Ng can easily be argued as being *over* qualified for the jobs they're looking for (or got in Ng's case, not saying either won't or can't learn a ton), hilarious and standard