Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

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Re: Report: Darvish to Padres a Done Deal (P. 3)

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:50 am

toonsterwu wrote:Preciado is probably top 10 in our system. I'd guess 8-10 for most lists, but could be lower a bit. Not big enough on Caissie's swing to put him in the top 10. I'd be a bit surprised if he got in there. I'm more intrigued with Mena than Caissie. I think the other 3 will slide in the top 22 or so for the Cubs, dependent upon what people value (upside, floor, closeness to bigs).


Same. I like the whole giant athlete that players defense thing the Cubs are doing, believe an underrated aspect of the 2016 team is just how much bigger and better they were on defense day to day vs foes. There's an argument for him as the highest upside player in the trade as a sure CF with lots of power/speed potential on offense, but models will favor the younger Preciado so long as he's at SS before PAs and as long as they're hitting similarly (and I 100% think he's going to move, the goal with him should be the next Ben Zobrist or Jose Ramirez, everyone's favorite underrated and versatile first division superstar). Mena also signed the highest bonus of this trio, $2.2 million

Agreed overall too just wanted to ramble on where this is all going in less time than expected
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:19 am

Just to ramble on the trade a bit longer as I wait on something to get done -

We'll never know the deliberations, but for a Cubs organization and system that has struggled to develop pitching, it would've been nice if they had gotten another arm or two in the deal. Caissie just worries me on paper, and Santana, dunno, don't get a great feel, although the MilB profile makes him sound quite intriguing. Honestly, if they picked up an Omar Cruz or a Carlos Guarate in the deal, I would've been far more pleased. This obviously isn't a big issue in the grand scheme of things (and with lottery tickets, you take the highest upside and worry about position later, and neither Guarate or Cruz have huge upsides).

Part of me wonders if they try flipping Zach Davies sooner than later. It feels like a team could take a decent gamble on Davies for one year, and then wash their hands if they flounder, or move him again next year (or sign him to a deal).
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:20 am

toonsterwu wrote:Just to ramble on the trade a bit longer as I wait on something to get done -

We'll never know the deliberations, but for a Cubs organization and system that has struggled to develop pitching, it would've been nice if they had gotten another arm or two in the deal. Caissie just worries me on paper, and Santana, dunno, don't get a great feel, although the MilB profile makes him sound quite intriguing. Honestly, if they picked up an Omar Cruz or a Carlos Guarate in the deal, I would've been far more pleased. This obviously isn't a big issue in the grand scheme of things (and with lottery tickets, you take the highest upside and worry about position later, and neither Guarate or Cruz have huge upsides).

Part of me wonders if they try flipping Zach Davies sooner than later. It feels like a team could take a decent gamble on Davies for one year, and then wash their hands if they flounder, or move him again next year (or sign him to a deal).


- It's not likely they trade Davies, but there's enough volatility between him and that whole SP setup that it's not totally unlikely either. The Cubs' SP depth chart is wildly inexperienced but there's also enough talent to piece together something behind Hendricks* given the more year to year outlook of things. Doubt they sign any SP to anything but a 2 year deal for a couple years maybe more unless Stroman breaks out with his own crazy pitch mix during 2021 or a top young pitcher moves from an international league. OTOH if they trade a MLer, probably a depth chartable 40 rosterable SP is added maybe even better than that

- I probably already said it but Santana is a tick ahead of Luis Verdugo, both breaking out at 18 in the AZL but with Verdugo repeating the league. He's in the convo for best 3rd best SS defender in the org after Baez and Howard. He should be the easiest immediate top 10 prospect in this bunch on paper with the way rankings tend to go...

- Now I'm interested to see what the re-ranks look like, it's not hard to see both Santana and Preciado in the top 10 and Mena ranked not so far behind Roederer and Nwogu if Roederer's not considered a top 10 guy (which seems to be the case)

- One of the underplayed aspects of this trade is how it's the ugly stepchild of a pretty typical Rays trade. They didn't consolidate Future Value into one guy like an Abrams or Gore, they went heavy on the youth (many knew Adames and Archer were good even at the time of Price/Garza IMO), dumped salary but made sure to get back a MLer for immediate use, spreading innings out among the pitchers making that jump from 60 to (hopefully?) 162

*Please don't trade Hendricks

------

Another way I've spun it in my head...

The larger mass of folks at home have been begging to see all of this happen: the supposed little guy spend (mostly to set up the story of why he won't spend later), the big market clubs play with tighter budgets for whatever reasons have been invented, everyone relying more on the farm system than those pesky aging expensive FAs with their unending lust for money, fewer one dimensional players, and tremendous value and emphasis put on ultra cheap, controlled, healthy, youth. The Cubs just got younger, cheaper, healthier, further away from FA...on the way up!

Everything just said is in the context that Josh Allen, scheming billionaires, and the pandemic very possibly finished the breaking of my brain
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby SaorsaDaonnan » Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:54 am

It’s tough to tell what is happening...

Was the point of the deal to continue cutting payroll to meet a diminished budget stipulated by ownership? Or were we already pared down to that level?

Was the point of the deal to free up cash to pursue Lester or another starter, on the theory that bulk innings are a greater need than an ace, given the oddity of the 60 game to 162 game transition?

Was the point to free up payroll space in 22-23 for an extension for Baez/Bryant/Contreras/Rizzo?

Was the point of the deal to operationalize a philosophy of intense aversion to pitching risk and intense preference for short term deals and flexibility?

Was the point of the deal to take advantage of the weakness of the division by remaining at the front of the pack despite subtractions while meaningfully improving the farm?

All of these questions, IMO, need to be addressed separately from any opinions about whether the general idea of a package of teenagers is a reasonable alternative to talent closer to the majors, and separately from any opinions about whether the four youngsters sound promising on their individual merits.

And then there’s one more question still bugging me after all that: what is the plan for 2022 and 2023? Are we semi-going for it this year, then running with the pack for a couple years and doing a lot of tinkering, then hoping for a new core to emerge mid-decade, just as finances recover and Jed comes up for an extension?
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby Backtobanks » Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:34 pm

For those of you pushing for a fire sale, what kind of shrewd deals do you think Hoyer can make on Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, etc. when this is all he could get for Darvish & Caratini? I will say that GMs should be lined up at Hoyer's door after this deal.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby gflore34 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:25 pm

Backtobanks wrote:For those of you pushing for a fire sale, what kind of shrewd deals do you think Hoyer can make on Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, etc. when this is all he could get for Darvish & Caratini? I will say that GMs should be lined up at Hoyer's door after this deal.


Looks that way now, lots of risk being taken on by the Cubs, historically that's never played out well. I'd say there's a better than average chance none of these guys are Cubs in two years than any one of the prospects panning out to be a productive MLB'er. Prospects which are all, what, 4+ years away at best? Zach Davies? Weren't the Cubs one of the few teams against which slow, slower and slowest was effective?
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby CubinNY » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:45 pm

Fire sales are not how big market, smart teams operate. I suspect that the Ricketts are using the Cubs to pay down the debt for all their other business ventures, which I think is against the collective bargaining agreement. But baseball is a microcosm of America, so nothing will be done about it.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby Backtobanks » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:49 pm

gflore34 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:For those of you pushing for a fire sale, what kind of shrewd deals do you think Hoyer can make on Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, etc. when this is all he could get for Darvish & Caratini? I will say that GMs should be lined up at Hoyer's door after this deal.


Looks that way now, lots of risk being taken on by the Cubs, historically that's never played out well. I'd say there's a better than average chance none of these guys are Cubs in two years than any one of the prospects panning out to be a productive MLB'er. Prospects which are all, what, 4+ years away at best? Zach Davies? Weren't the Cubs one of the few teams against which slow, slower and slowest was effective?


Remember when Bryant was being shopped and we couldn't get what we wanted for him. If I was a GM on a team that needed a 3B, I would be calling Jed with offers of 2 16-year-olds for Bryant plus cash.
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Re: Cubs deep in discussions with Padres on Darvish

Postby Stu » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:53 pm

Rob wrote:Is this when we finally get Jake Peavy?

Well played sir. I spit my coffee onto my laptop from laughing when I read this!
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Re: Cubs deep in discussions with Padres on Darvish

Postby gflore34 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:17 pm

Stu wrote:
Rob wrote:Is this when we finally get Jake Peavy?

Well played sir. I spit my coffee onto my laptop from laughing when I read this!


Might as well, probably still has better stuff then Davies, he's only 39.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby gflore34 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:37 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
gflore34 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:For those of you pushing for a fire sale, what kind of shrewd deals do you think Hoyer can make on Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, etc. when this is all he could get for Darvish & Caratini? I will say that GMs should be lined up at Hoyer's door after this deal.


Looks that way now, lots of risk being taken on by the Cubs, historically that's never played out well. I'd say there's a better than average chance none of these guys are Cubs in two years than any one of the prospects panning out to be a productive MLB'er. Prospects which are all, what, 4+ years away at best? Zach Davies? Weren't the Cubs one of the few teams against which slow, slower and slowest was effective?


Remember when Bryant was being shopped and we couldn't get what we wanted for him. If I was a GM on a team that needed a 3B, I would be calling Jed with offers of 2 16-year-olds for Bryant plus cash.


Look on the bright side, the Cubs could probably field one hell of a 19U team.
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Re: Report: Darvish to Padres a Done Deal (P. 3)

Postby Bertz » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:42 pm

At this point, I think the focus turns to putting yourself in the best possible position for the trade deadline

1. Hang on to all the walk-year guys. Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbrel...odds are one or two of these guys will resume being stars, and bring back far more in July than the lot of them would bring back right now

2. Pillow Contracts. Whether it's James Paxton, Kirby Yates, Corey Kluber, etc., there are several previously high-end pitchers looking to re-establish themselves. Use the saved Darvish money on a few of them, and build them back up with the magical pitching infrastructure. For example, MLBTR predicted $10M for Paxton and $5M for Yates. That'd cleanly work out to Paxton + Yates + Davies equalling Darvish's salary. Now you've got another shot or two at stars to deal at the deadline

Unless the team wildly exceeds expectations, I think you have to sell come July. Being on pace for 88 wins and the division is not enough to deviate. You blew that option when you traded Darvish for teenagers.

2022 is pretty much a clean slate. Payroll right now would project at ~$80M. And next year's FA class is killer. You've got to put yourself in a position for that to matter.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:49 pm

Don’t worry, it will all make sense when Davies puts together 3 ace-caliber months and we flip him for an epic haul.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby Outshined_One » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:54 pm

Little Slide Rooter wrote:Don’t worry, it will all make sense when Davies puts together 3 ace-caliber months and we flip him for an epic haul.


Two words: Scott Feldman.

:beg:
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby Bertz » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:57 pm



The trade looks MUCH better in this light. Eric has Preciado as a Top 100 guy, better than Ed Howard. Yeisson Santana is a 45 FB guy, meaning he'd be in the top 10 in a typical system. Ismael Mena is on the 40/45 line, depending on how reports of whether he can stick in CF shake out.

It's appalling how far away all these guys are, but it's looking more like the raw value is there at least.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby abmillis » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:10 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/fangraphs/status/1343943698170699776?s=19

The trade looks MUCH better in this light. Eric has Preciado as a Top 100 guy, better than Ed Howard. Yeisson Santana is a 45 FB guy, meaning he'd be in the top 10 in a typical system. Ismael Mena is on the 40/45 line, depending on how reports of whether he can stick in CF shake out.

It's appalling how far away all these guys are, but it's looking more like the raw value is there at least.


Whoa, if Preciado is above Howard, that's a legit prospect.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby The Logan » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:15 pm

I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby David » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:16 pm

The Logan wrote:I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.


i don't think our system (pre-trade) is really all that bad.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:19 pm

David wrote:
The Logan wrote:I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.


i don't think our system (pre-trade) is really all that bad.


does this trade improve it significantly or marginally?



bye Yu! I miss you already
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby Bertz » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:24 pm

The Logan wrote:I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.


It works both ways right? You can't say that them being in our top 10 is an indictment of our system and at the same time not acknowledge that not being in the Padres top 10 isn't an insult. This is precisely why some outlets have moved to the Future Value model, to make these comparisons more apples to apples.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby CoolHandLuke » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:34 pm

Preciado and Mena were part of the same international class as Quintero and Made, but were ranked a bit behind them both. Preciado's signing bonus was about the same as Made's and significantly less than Quintero's. Now, after playing very little baseball, the Padres duo seem to be ranked ahead of the Cubs. Can someone explain this to me? Is it possible for scouting opinions to change so much without games being played?
Last edited by CoolHandLuke on Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby Derwood » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:35 pm

I don't get the hate of Davies.

I also don't get the love of Caratini
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby Backtobanks » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:50 pm

Outshined_One wrote:
Little Slide Rooter wrote:Don’t worry, it will all make sense when Davies puts together 3 ace-caliber months and we flip him for an epic haul.


Two words: Scott Feldman.

:beg:


Yeah, Hoyer will trade him plus another player for Arrieta and Strope at the deadline.
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby David » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:56 pm

Derwood wrote:I don't get the hate of Davies.

I also don't get the love of Caratini


he's a nancy boy soft tosser and he's not kyle hendricks

what's there not to get
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Re: Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

Postby David » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:58 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
David wrote:
The Logan wrote:I feel like some of these guys being in or near our Top 10 is less of a qualifier for acquiring these prospects and more of an indictment on our system's depth. There's no reason you don't get a top 5 org prospect plus more for that haul.


i don't think our system (pre-trade) is really all that bad.


does this trade improve it significantly or marginally?



bye Yu! I miss you already


i'll leave that to the guys who actually know stuff.

i will say that since these guys are so young, there's likely a lot of variance in how they are projected. if we put some weight into logenhagen's assessment, that would seem to be a pretty good boost to the farm depth. unfortunately, you kinda needed to do more than boost the depth of the farm system with this trade.
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