Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels

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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby David » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:16 pm

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The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:57 pm

JJ Cooper points out that Otani would be subject to International bonus pools if posted this offseason(because he's under 23 and has < 5 years pro experience), which should seemingly kill any lingering hope of him being in MLB in 2017: http://www.baseballamerica.com/internat ... Wxwo9yT.97
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Sammys Boombox » Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:15 pm



A star pitcher and designated hitter, Otani will be the most sought-after player next winter, and rival executives believe the Cubs will be all-in on that pursuit when the contracts of Jake Arrieta and John Lackey are set to expire.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Tim » Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:23 pm

love love love
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:37 pm

I think that we should offer him a lot of money in exchange for his baseball playing services.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:40 pm

Someone refresh my memory on the bidding process again.... It's not a blind bid anymore, right? As long as you have the highest payment offer to the team (up to $25 million I think) you get to present/negotiate a term with the player and multiple teams can have the highest "buyout" number to team, right?
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby davell » Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:41 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Someone refresh my memory on the bidding process again.... It's not a blind bid anymore, right? As long as you have the highest payment offer to the team (up to $25 million I think) you get to present/negotiate a term with the player and multiple teams can have the highest "buyout" number to team, right?


Its 20 mill. Any team that offers that will have the ability to negotiate with him.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:12 pm

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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Abedogg34 » Thu Dec 01, 2016 4:12 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:https://youtu.be/yDThrTxWBmw

Ok, now I'm completely on board with this.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Dec 01, 2016 4:51 am

No one wants to say the Cubs are the easy favorites for Otani because his FA alone will be a massive running story, but they're the favorites. I view him landing with the Cubs as inevitable and will be stunned if someone else does.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby CP_414 » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:43 am

So Morosi tweeted that the IFA limits will now apply to Cubans under 25, not 23. That would really suck if they just delayed Otani's arrival by 2 years, assuming it also applies to Japan/Korea.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Dec 01, 2016 4:43 pm

CP_414 wrote:So Morosi tweeted that the IFA limits will now apply to Cubans under 25, not 23. That would really suck if they just delayed Otani's arrival by 2 years, assuming it also applies to Japan/Korea.


JJ Cooper confirmed that the current age limit applies to NPB players in the posting system, so unless there's a change that will be the case there as well and Otani can't come over til after 2019.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Banedon » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:34 pm

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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:35 pm

SHUT THE THREAD DOWN.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Liam Neeson » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:37 pm

His arm will have died by then. RIP
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Banedon » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:38 pm

So I guess we don't need to save that money now, and can go spend it?
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby davell » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:45 pm

Banedon wrote:So I guess we don't need to save that money now, and can go spend it?


We need an Arrieta replacement. I guess its possible we're in on Hill. But that's a band aid move anyway. I guess this makes it slightly more likely we give up what it takes for Archer?
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:50 pm

Banedon wrote:So I guess we don't need to save that money now, and can go spend it?


I think that narrative was probably a silly one from the start. Next year they lose nearly 50 million alone from Montero, Arrieta, and Lackey. Assuming Montgomery or a trade target fill one of those SP slots, you have a lot of money to work with to spend on starting pitching. Otani would have been the headliner, but guys like Darvish, Duffy, and Pineda could be worthy targets too. No need to borrow from today to afford tomorrow.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:27 pm

So in attempting to curb a "problem" (Cubans 23-25 who aren't restricted by the bonus caps) that won't be a problem much longer (we've nearly tapped out the Cuban market plus the improving relations between countries surely means player procurement will change soon), we're now restricting potential game-changing talent from coming from Asia.

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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:59 pm

Soooo, would a work around be to give him the max 5-6 mil then immediately sign him to an extension for like $200 mil?
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Banedon » Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:04 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Soooo, would a work around be to give him the max 5-6 mil then immediately sign him to an extension for like $200 mil?


But you're still getting 2 cheap years that he otherwise would've gotten big bucks for.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:06 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Soooo, would a work around be to give him the max 5-6 mil then immediately sign him to an extension for like $200 mil?


I don't think it would in practice. The only way Otani agrees to it is if the contract basically grants him FA after a year(which may not even be possible). Otherwise a team could say 'welp, tough luck' once he signs and they have him on normal pre-arb prices. From a team's perspective, you need to be sure that you can ink that extension, lest you pay $25 million to smuggle Otani and then lose him. If they grant that immediate FA then that's a ton of risk/leverage placed in Otani's hands. Plus you have to probably collude with Otani/his team ahead of time so he actually knows that's what's going to happen and they proceed to post him.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:23 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Soooo, would a work around be to give him the max 5-6 mil then immediately sign him to an extension for like $200 mil?


I don't think it would in practice. The only way Otani agrees to it is if the contract basically grants him FA after a year(which may not even be possible). Otherwise a team could say 'welp, tough luck' once he signs and they have him on normal pre-arb prices. From a team's perspective, you need to be sure that you can ink that extension, lest you pay $25 million to smuggle Otani and then lose him. If they grant that immediate FA then that's a ton of risk/leverage placed in Otani's hands. Plus you have to probably collude with Otani/his team ahead of time so he actually knows that's what's going to happen and they proceed to post him.

That's precisely what I'm saying

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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:25 pm

Right, but even if they know what's up, you still have the situation where one party has to take a leap of faith, lest Otani be trapped at prospect salaries or he leaves after a year with a team paying 25 million for the privilege.
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Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Thrilho » Thu Dec 01, 2016 8:57 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Right, but even if they know what's up, you still have the situation where one party has to take a leap of faith, lest Otani be trapped at prospect salaries or he leaves after a year with a team paying 25 million for the privilege.

This sort of thing doesn't really happen, but the game theory behind it makes it a fun subject. What if the team signed him to a deal through 2019 for that $6 mil with the agreement to extend him for however long and at whatever money where the AAV including those first 3 years is agreeable to both parties. Say you tack on another 7 years at $300M or something.

Then if the team doesn't hold their side of the bargain he just "retires" to Japan until the contract is up in 2019.

In this case:
- The team risks the $25M but knows Otani is motivated to come over and unable to negotiate with another team until post-2019
- Otani has the leverage to go back home if he wants until his regularly scheduled FA period if the team doesn't give him the extension

It seems like Otani is still in an inferior bargaining position here, but it's not much. If they have the terms agreed to before signing the first contract the team would really be playing with fire trying to pull a contract switcheroo.

Anyone know if it would be possible for Otani to bail on an MLB contract and try to reinstate once it's up?
Last edited by Thrilho on Thu Dec 01, 2016 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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