Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 1786
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 1456
x 505

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Regular Show » Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:15 am

Again, read what I wrote earlier...I said if the money is close and the decisive factor is allowing him to play in the OF in-between starts -- then yeah, I'm okay with that if it means he'll sign with us over the Dodgers or Yankees or Rangers. We have a creative manager and like to move players around. Again, we highly value versatility.

Of course, you run the danger that he hurts himself playing in the OF, but pitchers get hurt in all kinds of ways (M. Stroman, M. Rivera, A. Wainwright) and you can't protect them from getting hurt on the field. I would want to make sure he can properly play the OF and take good routes, avoid collisions, get good jumps, etc. He would only play occasionally as well (probably not after days he starts).

This is all pure speculation btw. We have to see what he wants when he decides to come over. I would prefer signing him as a pitcher who hopefully hits extremely well and can be used as a PH occasionally.
0 x
"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 1786
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 1456
x 505

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Regular Show » Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:18 am

Again, read what I wrote earlier...I said if the money is close and the decisive factor is allowing him to play in the OF in-between starts -- then yeah, I'm okay with that if it means he'll sign with us over the Dodgers or Yankees or Rangers. We have a creative manager and like to move players around. Again, we highly value versatility.

Of course, you run the danger that he hurts himself playing in the OF, but pitchers get hurt in all kinds of ways (M. Stroman, M. Rivera, A. Wainwright) and you can't protect them from getting hurt on the field. I would want to make sure he can properly play the OF and take good routes, avoid collisions, get good jumps, etc. He would only play occasionally as well (probably not after days he starts).

This is all pure speculation btw. We have to see what he wants when he decides to come over. I would prefer signing him as a pitcher who hopefully hits extremely well and can be used as a PH occasionally.
0 x
"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 76720
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 9229
x 12354

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:44 pm

He'd have to be pretty ridonkulous as a hitter to get any team to be willing to risk a pitcher that way. Basically, willingness to be creative with the lineup isn't the key factor here; money is. His value overwhelmingly comes from how well he pitches, and no team is going to risk losing that because of some stupid, easily avoidable injury letting the guy play LF when the reality is as a hitter in the US he's almost certainly just going to be "a good hitter for a pitcher."
0 x
► Show Spoiler

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60528
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 7590
x 4656

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby David » Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:52 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:He'd have to be pretty ridonkulous as a hitter to get any team to be willing to risk a pitcher that way. Basically, willingness to be creative with the lineup isn't the key factor here; money is. His value overwhelmingly comes from how well he pitches, and no team is going to risk losing that because of some stupid, easily avoidable injury letting the guy play LF when the reality is as a hitter in the US he's almost certainly just going to be "a good hitter for a pitcher."


He kinda is pretty ridonkulous as a hitter...just not as insanely ridinkulous as he is as a pitcher.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-good ... hei-otani/

As per Otani, he currently ranks as NPB’s fourth-best hitter. In terms of distance from the mean, that suggests Otani is something like the Edwin Encarnacion or Anthony Rizzo of NPB: clearly not the best hitter in the talent pool, although clearly in the conversation of the upper-most edifice.

With the NPB reliance on “gaijin” for offense, it’s interesting to note that none of the five most talented offensive players at current are foreign-born. Wladimir Balentien is narrowly missing that arbitrary cut (sixth). He’s mounting an impressive-enough 2016 campaign, but 2015 was a lost season and his current production is a meaningful come-down from his 2014 (and yes, differing league levels of offense are being considered in such a statement, although for the years of 2014 and 2016, it so happens offensive environments are highly similar anyhow).

Finally, while we’d generally avoid the topic of translations for the reasons discussed, it would be a shame to at least not provide some food for thought.

Taking a long-term forecast for Otani, until his theoretical offensive and pitching peaks, and translating that expectation to MLB… where would we estimate peak-Otani would lie within the MLB talent spectrum, given the information and performance data we have to date?

We’ll translate his peak projection to MLB terms, and map that onto the current MLB offensive and SP talent spectrums shown above.

First, on offense:
Image

And as a starter:
Image

It does not seem out of line to suggest Otani could be an MLB All-Star on both sides of the ball. This is more distinctly true on the pitching side than it is as a position player, where he could legitimately be a frontline starter. But Otani now also looks like he could be one of the best hitters in baseball if he focused his energy on that side of the ball. Of course, the more interesting question is what he could do in the big leagues if he didn’t have to choose, and whether he might really be a potential two-way superstar in MLB. Based on what he’s doing this year, the question isn’t as absurd as it might sound.
1 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 76720
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 9229
x 12354

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:57 pm

Yeah, if he focused on that part of his game and basically became a hitter instead of a pitcher; as it stands, I don't look at a pitcher hitting great in the Japanese leagues as being likely to translate that to the MLB in terms of him being SO good that a team would be willing to risk putting an amazing starting pitcher into the lineup as a fielder so he could hit. It seems silly to think this guy being a real life Steve Nebraska in the MLB is realistic in any way.
0 x
► Show Spoiler

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 76720
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 9229
x 12354

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:04 pm

Look at it this way: we're talking about them doing something unprecedented for this guy. That doesn't seem too likely.
0 x
► Show Spoiler

User avatar
JennieGarthAlgar
All-Star
Posts: 1192
Joined: Sun Aug 03, 2014 2:20 am
Location: Peoria Hills, 61630
x 569
x 284

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:53 pm

No, but of all the teams in MLB, the Cubs can pitch the most appealing offer, I would think. He can hit on the days that he starts and then you have a manager like Joe who has pinch hit his better hitting pitchers ahead of position players left on the bench in come cases, and even played his pitchers in the field. Sign with the Cubs and Joe Maddon and you never know how many ABs you will get, Shohei!
0 x

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 76720
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 9229
x 12354

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:57 pm

NL better get the DH quick.
0 x
► Show Spoiler

User avatar
The Logan
Superstar
Posts: 14870
Joined: Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:03 am
Location: Lakeview
x 4483
x 1506

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby The Logan » Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:22 pm

Find the middle ground... Shohei Otani - Left Fielder & Closer
0 x
Image

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 1786
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 1456
x 505

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Regular Show » Mon Oct 24, 2016 1:22 am

I don't know when he'll be posted, but we need this guy. I don't care how we use him, but he is simply amazing to watch...

Another good article on the incredible Shohei Otani:

https://theringer.com/the-postseasons-t ... .9ykak7ta1
0 x
"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist

User avatar
doublebubble
Starter
Posts: 347
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 3:35 am
x 29
x 27

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby doublebubble » Mon Oct 24, 2016 3:28 am

Regular Show wrote:I don't know when he'll be posted, but we need this guy. I don't care how we use him, but he is simply amazing to watch...

Another good article on the incredible Shohei Otani:

https://theringer.com/the-postseasons-t ... .9ykak7ta1



https://www.japantoday.com/category/spo ... pan-series
0 x
#beliEVEN
#belieVIN
#believeland

Fly the :flythew:

Tryptamine
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5733
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:13 pm
x 4
x 71

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Oct 24, 2016 5:02 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he pretty much have to come over after this season? If the CBA institutes an international draft in 2018 he stands to lose an enormous amount of money should he not make the move before then. I'm all for throwing Jake's money at Otani.
0 x

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 55565
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 4:23 pm
Location: Greater St. Louis
x 417
x 5697

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Oct 24, 2016 5:18 am

Tryptamine wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he pretty much have to come over after this season? If the CBA institutes an international draft in 2018 he stands to lose an enormous amount of money should he not make the move before then. I'm all for throwing Jake's money at Otani.


I would be very surprised if an International Draft applied to NPB players. The current bonus pools do not, and the reasoning(IFA's are not yet professionals, NPB players are) is the same if you go from pools to a draft for IFA's. The posting/FA system could change again, but that would almost certainly be independent of an IFA draft.
0 x

Tryptamine
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5733
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:13 pm
x 4
x 71

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Oct 24, 2016 5:38 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he pretty much have to come over after this season? If the CBA institutes an international draft in 2018 he stands to lose an enormous amount of money should he not make the move before then. I'm all for throwing Jake's money at Otani.


I would be very surprised if an International Draft applied to NPB players. The current bonus pools do not, and the reasoning(IFA's are not yet professionals, NPB players are) is the same if you go from pools to a draft for IFA's. The posting/FA system could change again, but that would almost certainly be independent of an IFA draft.


The Koreans and the Cubans are in professional leagues, would they be exempt as well? It seems like a giant waste of time if the international draft isn't even going to cover all international players. I really wish they'd just leave it alone and let the players keep getting paid what they're worth.
0 x

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 55565
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 4:23 pm
Location: Greater St. Louis
x 417
x 5697

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Oct 24, 2016 5:44 am

Tryptamine wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he pretty much have to come over after this season? If the CBA institutes an international draft in 2018 he stands to lose an enormous amount of money should he not make the move before then. I'm all for throwing Jake's money at Otani.


I would be very surprised if an International Draft applied to NPB players. The current bonus pools do not, and the reasoning(IFA's are not yet professionals, NPB players are) is the same if you go from pools to a draft for IFA's. The posting/FA system could change again, but that would almost certainly be independent of an IFA draft.


The Koreans and the Cubans are in professional leagues, would they be exempt as well? It seems like a giant waste of time if the international draft isn't even going to cover all international players. I really wish they'd just leave it alone and let the players keep getting paid what they're worth.


Yes? My understanding is that the purpose of the international draft is to add fairness(read: curb spending) on the 16 year old IFAs, not to act as a catch all for any player who isn't drafted in the stateside draft. With the Cubans there's been some flip flopping on whether they qualify, but that ambiguity has never extended to Asian countries, most especially NPB.
0 x

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 22276
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 5458
x 4228

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:58 pm

I saw earlier today, can't find the article now, but an anonymous scout/FO guy said he thinks Otani is getting a $300 million deal when he comes..... I guess in a market where guys think Nova is getting $100+ million you could make sense of it but I don't see it.

Edit:

Here's the quote and article

“I actually think the guy might get a $300 million deal,” said a scout who has had multiple looks at the righty pitcher/lefty hitter. “That is how special a talent he is. He has power No. 1 starter stuff. He is throwing 99 [mph] in the eighth inning. His secondary stuff is unhittable. He is big and loose. His fastball is electric and his curve, cutter and split are all 70s [on the 20-80 scouting scale].

“And I think he is getting better as a hitter. I think an American hitting coach teaches him to turn on the ball more and he can be a 45-homer guy. He has Darryl Strawberry power. He is the face of a franchise. He is a big, handsome guy and when he plays baseball you cannot take your eyes off of him.”


http://nypost.com/2016/11/09/meet-baseb ... -get-300m/
0 x
Screw Pitchers

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 55565
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 4:23 pm
Location: Greater St. Louis
x 417
x 5697

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:11 pm

This is an extremely thorough article on Otani, both on his abilities as a pitcher and hitter, as well as the possibility of him coming stateside: https://dodgersdigest.com/2016/11/02/it ... hei-otani/

The short version of the author's conclusion:

- Otani is a #2 starter in MLB today with the potential to be a true ace
- His bat might be exploitable in MLB but he wouldn't embarrass himself
- He hasn't played defense in multiple years and might be bad in the OF because of it
- There are reasons/precedent that Otani could be posted as soon as this year, although the entirety of the evidence points towards him not being posted yet
0 x

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60528
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 7590
x 4656

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby David » Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:59 am

here he is taking jair jurrjens very deep

0 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

User avatar
Ding Dong Johnson
Crap Bag
Posts: 33766
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:42 am
Location: Durnsville
x 739
x 5214

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sat Nov 12, 2016 3:08 pm

let's see what he can do with a real ball. and a real pitcher.
0 x
Image

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 22276
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 5458
x 4228

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Nov 12, 2016 3:46 pm

How do his offensive numbers compare to Matsui, Fukudome, etc?
0 x
Screw Pitchers

davell
Hall of Fame
Posts: 21270
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:55 pm
x 1754
x 2231

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby davell » Sat Nov 12, 2016 4:50 pm

Law and Longenhagen don't see him as a major league caliber hitter.
0 x
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5403
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 310
x 409

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 12, 2016 5:08 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:How do his offensive numbers compare to Matsui, Fukudome, etc?


They don't. This was his first major season as a bat and he still struck out 98 times in 382 PAs. He'd swing and miss alot against ML pitching.
0 x

User avatar
texascub
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6949
Joined: Sat May 31, 2003 6:19 pm
Location: Colorado
x 2
x 6

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby texascub » Sun Nov 13, 2016 12:52 pm

Otani has now hit a double that disappeared into the ceiling of the stadium:

https://twitter.com/sung_minkim/status/797769112348831744/video/1

Edited to add: I originally thought it was a homer, but was called a double.

Here it is in real time:

https://mobile.twitter.com/sung_minkim/status/797770561589870592/video/1
0 x

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5403
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 310
x 409

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 13, 2016 5:02 pm

0 x

User avatar
TBS Playoffs Insider
Turdologist
Posts: 32401
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2003 7:57 am
x 2134
x 5449
Contact:

Re: ITT: Raisin & Tom/King Kong Obsess Over Shohei Otani

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Nov 13, 2016 5:40 pm

David wrote:here he is taking jair jurrjens very deep



that went about what? 3,000 km? or meters? i dont get the metric system. HE ALMOST HIT THAT ONE TO YOKOHAMA
3 x
Duke Silver wrote:You've never been right about anything. You bitch and moan at the slightest hint of things not going right ... Suck my ass, you whiny little bitch.


Return to “Transactions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests