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Fowler

Postby BrockLanders » Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:32 am

“The Cubs are still the most likely landing spot for Fowler,” one baseball executive whose club has also followed the Fowler free-agent process said. “He should have taken the Cubs’ qualifying offer and moved into the free agent class of 2017.”


http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/01/27/ ... ee-agency/
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Re: Fowler

Postby Schwarber Fan » Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:40 am

I love the idea of bringing Fowler back and swapping Soler for a good young SP. Not only would you deepen the rotation, but put Heyward in his more comfortable position and the OF defense becomes a lot better. Having Lackey/Hendricks as 4-5 starters makes my mouth water. If the right Soler deal is out there, I think this is the way to go.
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Re: Fowler

Postby David » Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:45 am

Rondon Fan wrote:I love the idea of bringing Fowler back and swapping Soler for a good young SP. Not only would you deepen the rotation, but put Heyward in his more comfortable position and the OF defense becomes a lot better. Having Lackey/Hendricks as 4-5 starters makes my mouth water. If the right Soler deal is out there, I think this is the way to go.


the right soler deal isn't out there, therefore HATE HATE HATE

the rotation doesn't need deepening. heyward is probably a better defensive cf than fowler. this team doesn't need to limit downside any further; even if soler is garbage, we'll be really good. gambling on soler's obvious upside is the play.

barring some awesome return for soler, which just isn't gonna happen, i will be very bummed if this plays out.
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Re: Fowler

Postby David » Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:45 am

SIGN SOMEWHERE ELSE ALREADY DEXTER
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Re: Fowler

Postby dawson1989 » Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:48 am

Rondon Fan wrote:I love the idea of bringing Fowler back and swapping Soler for a good young SP. Not only would you deepen the rotation, but put Heyward in his more comfortable position and the OF defense becomes a lot better. Having Lackey/Hendricks as 4-5 starters makes my mouth water. If the right Soler deal is out there, I think this is the way to go.


The last part is key. I think if a team was willing to move an SP we want it would have happened already.
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Re: Fowler

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:51 am

I can't wait for him to sign elsewhere and whoever it is that keeps trying to shoehorn him onto the roster to/in the press has to stop.
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Re: Fowler

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:55 am

Rondon Fan wrote:I love the idea of bringing Fowler back and swapping Soler for a good young SP. Not only would you deepen the rotation, but put Heyward in his more comfortable position and the OF defense becomes a lot better. Having Lackey/Hendricks as 4-5 starters makes my mouth water. If the right Soler deal is out there, I think this is the way to go.

No, the deal isn't there for Soler. If Fowler is somehow brought back dumping Coghlan is the move.
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Re: Fowler

Postby dawson1989 » Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:06 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Rondon Fan wrote:I love the idea of bringing Fowler back and swapping Soler for a good young SP. Not only would you deepen the rotation, but put Heyward in his more comfortable position and the OF defense becomes a lot better. Having Lackey/Hendricks as 4-5 starters makes my mouth water. If the right Soler deal is out there, I think this is the way to go.

No, the deal isn't there for Soler. If Fowler is somehow brought back dumping Coghlan is the move.


Making Soler a 4th OF is a terrible idea. Play him or trade him. Benching him will just mess with his confidence and waste a top prospect.
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Re: Fowler

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:10 am

dawson1989 wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Rondon Fan wrote:I love the idea of bringing Fowler back and swapping Soler for a good young SP. Not only would you deepen the rotation, but put Heyward in his more comfortable position and the OF defense becomes a lot better. Having Lackey/Hendricks as 4-5 starters makes my mouth water. If the right Soler deal is out there, I think this is the way to go.

No, the deal isn't there for Soler. If Fowler is somehow brought back dumping Coghlan is the move.


Making Soler a 4th OF is a terrible idea. Play him or trade him. Benching him will just mess with his confidence and waste a top prospect.

There's enough flexibility in a Schwarber/Heyward/Fowler/Soler OF that all of Fowler/Schwarber/Soler can get to 500ish PAs and Heyward to 600+.
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Re: Fowler

Postby Gilby » Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:30 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
dawson1989 wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:No, the deal isn't there for Soler. If Fowler is somehow brought back dumping Coghlan is the move.


Making Soler a 4th OF is a terrible idea. Play him or trade him. Benching him will just mess with his confidence and waste a top prospect.

There's enough flexibility in a Schwarber/Heyward/Fowler/Soler OF that basically all of Fowler/Schwarber/Soler can get to 140 games played/500+ PAs with Heyward at 150/600+.


That many PAs for those four seems unlikely, unless they start trusting Schwarber to catch more than just Hendricks and Hammel, which I doubt. Arrieta has the best stuff in the league, and Lester and Lackey might actually physically harm him if he poorly frames a couple of pitches.

Personally, my ideal rest of the offseason would be trading Soler for Blake Snell, then signing Austin Jackson. It helps the pitching situation for 2017/2018 and I think a Coghlan/Jackson platoon (with Heyward switching between CF and RF) has a pretty good shot at outperforming Soler anyway. I have doubts the Rays go for that though.
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Re: Fowler

Postby bukie » Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:35 am

Honestly, the move that makes the most sense for Fowler would be to go to the White Sox.
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Re: Fowler

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:36 am

Gilby wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
dawson1989 wrote:
Making Soler a 4th OF is a terrible idea. Play him or trade him. Benching him will just mess with his confidence and waste a top prospect.

There's enough flexibility in a Schwarber/Heyward/Fowler/Soler OF that basically all of Fowler/Schwarber/Soler can get to 140 games played/500+ PAs with Heyward at 150/600+.


That many PAs for those four seems unlikely, unless they start trusting Schwarber to catch more than just Hendricks and Hammel, which I doubt. Arrieta has the best stuff in the league, and Lester and Lackey might actually physically harm him if he poorly frames a couple of pitches.

Personally, my ideal rest of the offseason would be trading Soler for Blake Snell, then signing Austin Jackson. It helps the pitching situation for 2017/2018 and I think a Coghlan/Jackson platoon (with Heyward switching between CF and RF) has a pretty good shot at outperforming Soler anyway. I have doubts the Rays go for that though.

There's roughly 1,944 PAs between the 3 OF spots for next year (4 PAs per game per 3 spots). Heyward at 600 drops it to 1,344, 500 for both Soler/Fowler drops it to 344, that means Schwarber catches about 35 games to get him to 500 PAs, which seems reasonable. There's also an additional 10 games in AL stadiums so DH adds about 40 PAs, if most of those are given to Schwarber/Soler that drops the games Schwarber needs to catch to about 25 games. It can be done fairly easily with those rough parameters.

On your ideal offseason move, I'd rather just re-sign Jackson as the 4th OF and get rid of Coghlan for whatever we could get than move Soler.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Fowler

Postby SRQCub » Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:41 am

bukie wrote:Honestly, the move that makes the most sense for Fowler would be to go to the White Sox.


Angels could be another landing spot.
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Re: Fowler

Postby dawson1989 » Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:43 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Gilby wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:There's enough flexibility in a Schwarber/Heyward/Fowler/Soler OF that basically all of Fowler/Schwarber/Soler can get to 140 games played/500+ PAs with Heyward at 150/600+.


That many PAs for those four seems unlikely, unless they start trusting Schwarber to catch more than just Hendricks and Hammel, which I doubt. Arrieta has the best stuff in the league, and Lester and Lackey might actually physically harm him if he poorly frames a couple of pitches.

Personally, my ideal rest of the offseason would be trading Soler for Blake Snell, then signing Austin Jackson. It helps the pitching situation for 2017/2018 and I think a Coghlan/Jackson platoon (with Heyward switching between CF and RF) has a pretty good shot at outperforming Soler anyway. I have doubts the Rays go for that though.

There's roughly 1,944 PAs between the 3 OF spots for next year (4 PAs per game per 3 spots). Heyward at 600 drops it to 1,344, 500 for both Soler/Fowler drops it to 344, that means Schwarber catches about 35 games to get him to 500 PAs, which seems reasonable. There's also an additional 10 games in AL stadiums so DH adds about 40 PAs, if most of those are given to Schwarber/Soler that drops the games Schwarber needs to catch to about 25 games. It can be done fairly easily with those rough parameters.

On your ideal offseason move, I'd rather just re-sign Jackson as the 4th OF and get rid of Coghlan for whatever we could get than move Soler.


Schwarber can't swap between LF and C every 4th or 5th day and actually get passable defensively at either. Cubs need to pick one (LF) and let him work every day at getting the defensive part down to a degree that is sustainable. Trying to have a guy easily swap between the toughest defensive position and the OF, where he is very inexperienced, is not feasible. Add in the fact Schwarber is slow and not athletic in the traditional sense and your looking to have a guy be more of detriment defensively than anyone in history and completely destroy the value of his bat.
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Re: Fowler

Postby toonsterwu » Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:16 am

bukie wrote:Honestly, the move that makes the most sense for Fowler would be to go to the White Sox.


I think the White Sox make the most sense, but I still wonder about the Nationals here. They're already giving up a pick (Daniel Murphy) so the loss of a 2nd pick isn't as bad. They did add Ben Revere, but it's not like Jayson Werth can be expected to play 150+ games, and Michael Taylor could use a bit more seasoning. Would give them a bit more lineup flexibility, and continue what seems to be an offseason goal of giving the kids some more time (wouldn't surprise me if Wilmer Difo/Trea Turner/Joe Ross all started in AAA, and all three, entering the winter, had outside chances of being on the big league club).
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Re: Fowler

Postby StylesClash » Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:06 pm

Someone mentioned a few days back about how the idea of acquiring a clear cut above average starting pitcher would not only be great for this season, but especially two years from now. Lackey will be retired, Hammel will be gone, Lester could very easily start to be in the midst of a decline, and Arrieta may not be deemed worthy of a massive five or six year contract.

So if you acquire a good pitcher for Soler not only do you make the rotation better now, but you're now better prepared for down the road. Plus I do like the idea of knowing what you're going to get from Fowler (a respectable 750 to 790 OPS). With Soler he could boom to the tune of an OPS of around 820, or bust with an OPS of 710/720 (with below average defense to boot).

Having another quality base stealer, in Fowler, certainly is nice too. When playing in pitcher friendly parks, in cold weather, or against a tough sinkerballer, having additional speed is a valuable asset.

I know the odds of acquiring Jose Fernandez are slim to none, but rotoworld posted a blurb talking about how the Marlins realize they are near certain to lose Fernandez as a FA three years from now. And realistically Fernandez's value won't increase that much more, so holding onto him until next offseason doesn't seem worth the risk of him getting hurt. So if Florida fell in love with Soler's upside we could start a package built around Soler and whatever two or three prospects in the farm system Florida wants (although I would prefer to keep Contreras if at all possible). Hammel could be thrown in too, since if he pitches well again in the first half Florida could flip him for a solid prospect or two.
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Re: Fowler

Postby Cubbie Swagger » Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:22 pm

I almost posted this article yesterday, and then decided not to. I just really didn't even want to think about the idea of swapping Soler for Dexter Fowler. Ugh.

My biggest fear here is that we aren't going to get anything good for Soler, and then he will go hit 80 homers for some other team, and we will feel like the Pirates felt when they traded for Bobby Hill.
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Re: Fowler

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:28 pm

Cubbie Swagger wrote:I almost posted this article yesterday, and then decided not to. I just really didn't even want to think about the idea of swapping Soler for Dexter Fowler. Ugh.

My biggest fear here is that we aren't going to get anything good for Soler, and then he will go hit 80 homers for some other team, and we will feel like the Pirates felt when they traded for Bobby Hill.


I won't feel that bad if Soler only goes on to hit 80 HR for another team. I'd feel pretty great, actually.
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Re: Fowler

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:36 pm

StylesClash wrote:Someone mentioned a few days back about how the idea of acquiring a clear cut above average starting pitcher would not only be great for this season, but especially two years from now. Lackey will be retired, Hammel will be gone, Lester could very easily start to be in the midst of a decline, and Arrieta may not be deemed worthy of a massive five or six year contract.


If you swap Soler for Fowler on a 1-2 year deal, you're basically creating a similar situation in the OF. Coghlan and Fowler are both short term guys like Lackey and Hammel, and Schwarber has a chance of moving to catcher or DH at least for a decent chunk of games, leaving Heyward as the only real OF of certainty.

Cubswin11 is right, if you can basically swap Fowler for Coghlan and get something worthwhile for Coghlan, then that's great. Fowler's a better fit as the extra OF so if they can convince him there's enough PA to go around(and he could get 400-500 easily) then it's a pretty easy win. Swapping Fowler for Soler is a search for the 'perfect roster' that isn't at all fruitful
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Re: Fowler

Postby toonsterwu » Thu Jan 28, 2016 5:07 pm

StylesClash wrote:Someone mentioned a few days back about how the idea of acquiring a clear cut above average starting pitcher would not only be great for this season, but especially two years from now. Lackey will be retired, Hammel will be gone, Lester could very easily start to be in the midst of a decline, and Arrieta may not be deemed worthy of a massive five or six year contract.

So if you acquire a good pitcher for Soler not only do you make the rotation better now, but you're now better prepared for down the road. Plus I do like the idea of knowing what you're going to get from Fowler (a respectable 750 to 790 OPS). With Soler he could boom to the tune of an OPS of around 820, or bust with an OPS of 710/720 (with below average defense to boot).

Having another quality base stealer, in Fowler, certainly is nice too. When playing in pitcher friendly parks, in cold weather, or against a tough sinkerballer, having additional speed is a valuable asset.

I know the odds of acquiring Jose Fernandez are slim to none, but rotoworld posted a blurb talking about how the Marlins realize they are near certain to lose Fernandez as a FA three years from now. And realistically Fernandez's value won't increase that much more, so holding onto him until next offseason doesn't seem worth the risk of him getting hurt. So if Florida fell in love with Soler's upside we could start a package built around Soler and whatever two or three prospects in the farm system Florida wants (although I would prefer to keep Contreras if at all possible). Hammel could be thrown in too, since if he pitches well again in the first half Florida could flip him for a solid prospect or two.


I'm not fundamentally opposed to

a) Trading Soler for pitching
b) Adding a piece now to deal with 2 years from now (this has been the main secondary reason why I still would like to make a move now - obviously, boosting our chances this year is the main thing, but with Arrieta adding so many innings, Lester nearing the age of decline, and Lackey being old, plus Hammel a free agent after this year, if you get an impact guy now, you might not get pinned against the wall in a year or two, trying to desperately get pitching, particularly when our main starting pitching assets probably still need at least 2 years to develop).

That said, at this juncture of the off-season, it seems quite unlikely that the Cubs could get the good deal for Soler that would motivate both parties to make a trade. I just don't see which team is going to sell an intriguing asset right now. Any team shopping starting pitching now is probably hoping that some team is desperate enough to fork over what they want. There's still Gallardo on the market, so there may be a hesitancy to make the move now, as these sellers will likely want to wait until organizations feel like the well's empty and may be more desperate. I don't want to make a move for the Odorizzi's of the world for Soler, because as good as Odorizzi is, I'm not sure he's the impact arm to justify gambling on Soler's upside.

As for the Marlins, I think this is a half-season gambit, at most a one-season gamble for them. If they are competitive, I suspect they'll just make a push with their core, and it's quite possible that, with some luck, they are in the playoff chase. That said, if they are bad, I think they try to shop Wei-Yin Chen mid-season to end of the season (so the brunt of the contract is someone else's responsibility), and I could see them listen on Jose Fernandez. Just don't think it makes much sense to move Jose now, as they've added a big SP piece to make a run.

Edit:

a) On Blake Snell - I'm still not sure I'm as gung-ho about him as everyone seems to be this winter. He's good, but I'm just not sure I buy he's that good. That said, I'm more inclined to believe Tampa would move Chris Archer than Blake Snell (and obviously, all the other current options). They simply don't have the money long term to keep some guys, so they need to develop and trust their young talent, and moving someone like Archer could add a couple impact young pieces.

b) On creating a similar situation in the OF - I do agree that moving Soler could create the same situation in the OF (that is, short term guys with minimal long term assets). I would point out that

i) After this offseason, it should be pretty clear that, even in this environment, the cost of pitching is still through the roof, whether in years (more I think about it, that Wei Yin Chen deal is baffling for two reasons - a, the opt out does seem like a get out of jail card, and b, as long as he doesn't get hurt, Wei Yin Chen seems quite likely to get his 6th year, which is just stunning in some regards for a mid-rotation arm) or money.

and

ii) Our system is far more likely to develop additional OF assets sooner than later.

This isn't, again, to advocate for a Soler trade now. As noted above, I don't really buy the idea that a good trade is out there. This is simply to say that it could be argued that creating that an uncertain future in the OF, based on what the Cubs look like now, might be a palatable consideration.

c) If you can't get impact in a potential Soler trade, then there's no reason to do a deal. If you feel like you need an arm, there's still enough assets on the farm that we should be able to cobble together a trade for a good SP, particularly considering the chances of elite assets being moved is a bit slim (thus, potentially giving increased value to our guys in a trade).
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Re: Fowler

Postby Bull » Thu Jan 28, 2016 6:43 pm

Beautiful outline form.
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Re: Fowler

Postby CubColtPacer » Thu Jan 28, 2016 6:46 pm

Fowler would be a huge upgrade as a 4th OF with the current OF configuration the Cubs have. Right now, the Cubs OF has 3 main issues surrounding it. They are relatively weak against LHP. Heyward absolutely needs to stay healthy or the Cubs have to scramble either putting an IF into CF or putting a huge downgrade in talent into CF. And the Cubs have two defensive question marks in the OF and they would probably like a defensive replacement for one of them in the late innings.

Coghlan's a good player, but he doesn't solve any of those issues. Fowler solves them all.

The hard part is managing the playing time/development of everybody. For example, the best thing for the 2016 Cubs would be to have Fowler take a decent amount of Schwarber AB's against left-handers, and also for him to take Soler's AB's in the cold April home games. Between that and somebody likely getting hurt over the season, Fowler would likely have tons of at-bats. But is that best for the development of those two players? And if Fowler has to take a more limited role because they want to develop the other two, I don't think he would sign no matter the money they were offering.
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Re: Fowler

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:01 pm

SRQCub wrote:
bukie wrote:Honestly, the move that makes the most sense for Fowler would be to go to the White Sox.


Angels could be another landing spot.

I think the Angels are a really good fit too, but if reports are true they can't come close to affording him. They only have around $4 million left to spend without getting into the luxury tax which they apparently are dead set against doing.
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Re: Fowler

Postby Bull » Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:00 pm

CubColtPacer wrote:Fowler would be a huge upgrade as a 4th OF with the current OF configuration the Cubs have. Right now, the Cubs OF has 3 main issues surrounding it. They are relatively weak against LHP. Heyward absolutely needs to stay healthy or the Cubs have to scramble either putting an IF into CF or putting a huge downgrade in talent into CF. And the Cubs have two defensive question marks in the OF and they would probably like a defensive replacement for one of them in the late innings.

Coghlan's a good player, but he doesn't solve any of those issues. Fowler solves them all.

The hard part is managing the playing time/development of everybody. For example, the best thing for the 2016 Cubs would be to have Fowler take a decent amount of Schwarber AB's against left-handers, and also for him to take Soler's AB's in the cold April home games. Between that and somebody likely getting hurt over the season, Fowler would likely have tons of at-bats. But is that best for the development of those two players? And if Fowler has to take a more limited role because they want to develop the other two, I don't think he would sign no matter the money they were offering.


No way he signs if he has any indication he's a "fourth outfielder"
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Re: Fowler

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:10 pm

Bull wrote:No way he signs if he has any indication he's a "fourth outfielder"


Seriously

Get over him folks, he's not even that good. I narrate him as the guy who gave the Cubs the confidence to understand that they can, and should, do much better.
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