Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Which of these are most likely?

Ian Happ becomes a young-Zobrist-like WAR monster with 30+ HR power
18
12%
Javy learns how to walk a little and hit RHP better and unlocks superstar potential
22
14%
Rizzo or Bryant have sub-2 win seasons
2
1%
Contreras leads the team in WAR (by excellent performance, not default)
21
13%
Almora puts it together vs RHP and puts out a 4+ WAR season
20
13%
Darvish finishes top 2 in Cy Young
12
8%
Lester pitches himself out of the rotation
4
3%
Lester has a huge bounceback and leads the team in fWAR (again, by performance, not default)
7
4%
Chatwood figures it out, takes advantage of an elite Cubs infield defense to put up the best ERA on the staff
13
8%
Schwarber breaks out and hits for enough average to put up a .950 OPS
33
21%
Hendricks pitches himself out of the rotation and Montgomery steps in and never looks back
4
3%
 
Total votes: 156

chopsx9
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby chopsx9 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:38 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:Quintana, Darvish, Lester or Hendricks having a bad year would be a surprise.


I'm well past the point of being surprised if any pitcher puts up a bad year.

I'll throw out 2:

5 Cubs finish in the top 10 in MVP voting (6 if you count Harper)

Russell has a season closer to 2017 than 2016
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David
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby David » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:40 pm

chopsx9 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:Quintana, Darvish, Lester or Hendricks having a bad year would be a surprise.


I'm well past the point of being surprised if any pitcher puts up a bad year.


yeah, i mean, just look at our staff in the first half of last year
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:42 pm

David wrote:
chopsx9 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:Quintana, Darvish, Lester or Hendricks having a bad year would be a surprise.


I'm well past the point of being surprised if any pitcher puts up a bad year.


yeah, i mean, just look at our staff in the first half of last year
a down half isn't the same as having a full on bad year. If you are asking for surprises you can't eliminate your top notch starting staff doing poorly as a potential surprise.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby javy knows my name » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:43 pm

At what WAR number would Contreras have led our team "by default?"
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby David » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:45 pm

javy knows my name wrote:At what WAR number would Contreras have led our team "by default?"

4-5ish

my point was that our best players would still have seasons that we'd expect out of them and he'd still beat them out
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby chopsx9 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:52 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
David wrote:
chopsx9 wrote:
I'm well past the point of being surprised if any pitcher puts up a bad year.


yeah, i mean, just look at our staff in the first half of last year
a down half isn't the same as having a full on bad year. If you are asking for surprises you can't eliminate your top notch starting staff doing poorly as a potential surprise.


I'd be surprised if the staff as a whole had a down year - any one of the individual pitchers - not at all.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:19 pm

javy knows my name wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:Quintana, Darvish, Lester or Hendricks having a bad year would be a surprise.


Man, that is a nasty playoff rotation

made my [expletive] perk right up
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby Bertz » Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:49 am

Unfortunately I think Hendricks falling apart is the most likely by far. He's my favorite of our returning guys to watch pitch, but guys with well below average velocity are always walking a tightrope, and we saw him lose his velocity for much of last year already. When Hendricks goes bad, it's gonna happen really fast.

Otherwise I took the optimistic Darvish/Lester/Chatwood scenarios. I don't think any of those is very unreasonable. If not for my general distrust of pitchers, I'd take the over on the expectations for all three of them heading into this year.

For the hitters I expect a few of those to happen, but I have zero feel for which ones are actually most likely. Schwarber or Almora probably?
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby Duke Silver » Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:03 am

I'm glad you gave the Chatwood option so I didn't have to write it in.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby Duke Silver » Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:06 am

Also, I am envisioning all three of these happening:

Darvish is top 2 in Cy Young, Chatwood has the best ERA on the staff, and Lester has the best fWAR on the staff. God-mode Cubs. 125 wins.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby XZero77 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:20 pm

Had to go with the Schwarber option. .950 would exceed my expectations, but not by a whole lot. I think he's gonna bounce back in a big way.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby CubinNY » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:10 pm

I went with Chatwood. I think Theo and Co. are good at polishing gems.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby Omar » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:35 am

Ryan Dempster will do the 7th inning stretch as himself instead of impersonating Harry
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:49 pm

Omar wrote:Ryan Dempster will do the 7th inning stretch as himself instead of impersonating Harry

I think you mean Dempster impersonating Will Farrell impersonating Harry. I'm convinced Dempster has never heard Harry speak first hand.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby weis21 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:58 pm

Who are these stick-in-the-mud people voting for the bad options. The hell is wrong with y’all?
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby badger » Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:01 pm

weis21 wrote:Who are these stick-in-the-mud people voting for the bad options. The hell is wrong with y’all?


been in a game thread recently...?
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby Tim » Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:02 pm

badger wrote:
weis21 wrote:Who are these stick-in-the-mud people voting for the bad options. The hell is wrong with y’all?


been in a game thread recently...?

Probably not in the last few months, why? :)
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby New York Cubs Fan » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:30 pm

David wrote:
javy knows my name wrote:At what WAR number would Contreras have led our team "by default?"

4-5ish

my point was that our best players would still have seasons that we'd expect out of them and he'd still beat them out


I considered this option, but I just really expect Bryant to be in that 8 or more WAR category. I still think he has one more gear left offensively.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby CubinNY » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:47 pm

I don't think it's that crazy that Schwaber has a .950 OPS. I actually think it might be one of the safer predictions.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby David » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:03 pm

CubinNY wrote:I don't think it's that crazy that Schwaber has a .950 OPS. I actually think it might be one of the safer predictions.


It's a pretty high bar...especially for a guy who prob profiles as a .250ish hitter at best in terms of average (especially with all the shifting against him). Only 10 qualified hitters topped that threshold last year.

The only .950+ guys who didn't hit .300 last year were Stanton and Judge, and they hit 50+ dongs.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby entbird79 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:15 pm

David wrote:
CubinNY wrote:I don't think it's that crazy that Schwaber has a .950 OPS. I actually think it might be one of the safer predictions.


It's a pretty high bar...especially for a guy who prob profiles as a .250ish hitter at best in terms of average (especially with all the shifting against him). Only 10 qualified hitters topped that threshold last year.

The only .950+ guys who didn't hit .300 last year were Stanton and Judge, and they hit 50+ dongs.


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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:10 am

What are the chances this team hits 250 HRs? The only NL team to come closest was the 2000 Astros with 249. The 2004 Cubs hit 235, next best and obviously the franchise record.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:23 pm

They hit 223 last year with Happ being the only one that looks like it isn't decently likely to repeat. Give Bryant and Rizzo a few more from hitting with runners on base more often, a few more spread around from the ABs Jay isn't taking anymore, maybe a few more from Russell, and you're in the vicinity of 240. You'd need one of Bryant, Rizzo, or Contreras to go nuts relative to their history, possible but not terribly likely.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby Bluescale » Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:56 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:They hit 223 last year with Happ being the only one that looks like it isn't decently likely to repeat. Give Bryant and Rizzo a few more from hitting with runners on base more often, a few more spread around from the ABs Jay isn't taking anymore, maybe a few more from Russell, and you're in the vicinity of 240. You'd need one of Bryant, Rizzo, or Contreras to go nuts relative to their history, possible but not terribly likely.


Schwarber hitting 50 will help.
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Re: Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

Postby David » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:03 am

13% of us, not bad
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